点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 截至2024年，火电装机及发电占广东省省内机组的比例分别为54.8%及70.70%。随着广东绿电装机继续扩 张，广东绿电对于整体电力供需情况及电价影响力预期提升。根据广东省136号文竞价结果，广东省机制 电价为0.36元/千瓦时，火电26年年度长协电价0.372元/千瓦时高于绿电机制电价水平；新能源对于火电的 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2026年广东电力年度交易呈现"量增价降"态势，综合上网电价同比基本持平 不含绿电的年度交易总成交量同比增长5.38%，创下近年新高，成交均价同比下降5.03%，对应2分/千瓦 时。交易以双边协商为主导，占比超99%绿电交易同步完成，整体价格略高于常规电力。2025年批发侧平 均电量电价为0.392元/千瓦时，2026年 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly recommending companies involved in coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The growth contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well as residential consumption, were 2%, 49%, 29%, and 19% respectively [4][6]. - The secondary industry remains the largest contributor to electricity consumption, accounting for over 60% of the total, with significant growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5][6]. - Natural gas prices have shown fluctuations, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $3.31/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 7.30%. The report notes that the domestic LNG ex-factory price is 3915 yuan/ton, down 2.85% week-on-week [1][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In November 2025, the electricity consumption by the first, second, and third industries grew by 7.9%, 4.4%, and 10.3% respectively, while residential consumption increased by 9.8% [4][6]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a 6.7% increase in electricity consumption, with automotive manufacturing leading at a 10% growth rate [5][6]. Natural Gas Sector - The report indicates that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the U.S. market showing a significant drop in spot prices. The report anticipates that the demand for natural gas will increase as winter approaches, potentially stabilizing prices [1][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas companies and those benefiting from cost reductions and improved profitability due to lower oil prices [39][40]. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their diversified revenue sources [1]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to expected improvements in profit margins from reduced capital expenditures [1]. - Nuclear power firms like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [1]. - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended for their stable returns and increasing operational value [1]. - The report also suggests investment in gas companies like Shenzhen Energy and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved market conditions [1][39].

Group 1 - The overall A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with major indices showing slight weekly gains and increased trading volume [5] - The short-term pullback pressure may have been released, indicating a return to a consolidation phase, with a positive outlook for market rebounds [5] - The investment strategy suggested focuses on "dividend + technology" as the main allocation theme, with dividends expected to perform better in terms of volatility [5] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum spot price reached its highest level since May 2022, indicating potential recovery in the steel sector's profitability [6] - The copper industry reported a 1% month-on-month increase in China's electrolytic copper production for November, with cable enterprise operating rates rising for five consecutive weeks [6] - The supply-demand dynamics in the copper market are expected to remain tight, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [6] Group 3 - China National Petroleum Corporation is recognized as a significant state-owned enterprise and a major global oil and gas producer, benefiting from its integrated operations across various energy sectors [7] - The energy sector is seeing a focus on investment opportunities in hydrogen, ammonia, and energy storage, with expectations for stable domestic bidding levels in 2026 [7] - The lithium battery sector is highlighted for potential investment opportunities, particularly in lithium mines and production processes that are currently under pressure [7] Group 4 - The first commercial insurance innovative drug directory was released, including 24 drugs, with 19 successfully negotiated for pricing, expanding market opportunities for innovative drugs in China [8] - The implementation of this directory is expected to create a broader market space for innovative pharmaceuticals amid the continuous emergence of new global drugs [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the thermal power sector, indicating an investment rating of "Outperform" for the industry [1][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that restrictions on power company profits are stabilizing electricity prices. In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. This growth is attributed to low base effects from the previous year, with industrial, commercial, and residential usage increasing by 6.2%, 17.1%, and 23.9% respectively [3][4]. - The report anticipates that annual electricity consumption growth will exceed 5%, with concerns regarding long-term contract prices and coal prices expected to ease after agreements are finalized [3][4]. Summary by Sections Regional Policies - Various regions are implementing profit-sharing policies for power companies. For instance, Henan limits user losses to 10%, while Guangdong shares excess profits above RMB 0.01/kWh at a 1:9 ratio. Other regions like Shaanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Sichuan have also introduced price caps, with Guangdong's sharing ratio being notably favorable to users [5][6]. Market Forecasts - The China Energy Investment Corporation forecasts that the peak load for 2024 will be 1.44 billion kW, with coal power expected to provide 55% of the energy. By 2030, coal capacity is projected to reach 1.54 billion kW, with gas power adding 40-50 million kW [7][8]. Profitability and Recommendations - The report notes that profits in Q3 2025 for thermal power companies are improving, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 10. It suggests that dividends are likely to rise, and compares this favorably to global leaders in the sector, which typically have a PE around 20. Recommended companies include Huadian Power International, Beijing Jingneng Power, and others [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in Anhui's thermal power sector, with a strong supply-demand balance supporting high utilization hours. Expansion into Xinjiang is expected to significantly enhance profits. The company has diversified its energy sources, including coal, wind, pumped storage, and nuclear power, making investment returns a crucial pillar for its performance [1][7][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Anhui Thermal Power Leader - The company is the leading thermal power operator in Anhui, with a total installed capacity of 13.66 million kW as of the end of 2024, primarily from coal power [7][12]. - Revenue has grown from 16.09 billion yuan in 2019 to 30.09 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.34% [7][12]. - The company’s net profit for 2023 and 2024 is projected to be 1.43 billion yuan and 2.06 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting significant year-on-year growth [7][8]. Section 2: Strategic Expansion in Xinjiang - The company has strategically expanded into Xinjiang, where its power plants benefit from low coal costs due to proximity to coal fields. The net profit from these plants is expected to contribute significantly to overall performance [7][61][62]. - The company’s Xinjiang plants are projected to generate a net profit of 594 million yuan in 2025, accounting for 28.8% of the company's total profit [7][8]. Section 3: Diverse Energy Investments - The company has diversified its energy portfolio, with 7.98 million kW of equity capacity in various energy sources, including coal, wind, and nuclear power [7][8]. - Investment returns from these diverse sources are becoming increasingly important for the company's overall performance stability [7][8]. Section 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.29 billion yuan, 2.44 billion yuan, and 2.53 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.0x, 7.5x, and 7.3x [8][12].

Key Points - The coal supply side is significantly contracting due to government policies aimed at reducing overproduction and stabilizing prices, leading to a decrease in coal production capacity utilization from 75.64% in Q4 2023 to 69.3% in Q2 2025 [13][16][20] - Domestic coal prices are expected to stabilize within a "green range" of 570-770 RMB/ton, with spot prices for thermal coal exceeding 800 RMB/ton in major ports [20][21] - Coal imports have decreased significantly, with a total of 34.589 million tons imported from January to September 2025, representing an 11.1% year-on-year decline [21][25] Supply Side Analysis - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has effectively reduced the phenomenon of "price for volume" competition, leading to a more sustainable industry development [13][20] - The coal import structure is highly concentrated, with the top four countries (Indonesia, Mongolia, Russia, and Australia) accounting for over 90% of total imports [21][23] - The domestic power sector is prioritizing the procurement of domestic long-term contract coal, further squeezing the demand for imported coal [21][25] Demand Side Analysis - The demand for coal is expected to grow significantly, driven by the electricity sector, with a projected increase of 290 billion kWh in thermal power generation in 2025, a 4.5% year-on-year growth [31] - The overall electricity consumption in China is forecasted to grow by 5.0%-6.0% in 2025, directly boosting coal consumption [31] - The coal chemical industry is emerging as a significant growth point for coal consumption, with a projected increase in coal usage share from 3.9% in 2020 to 6.7%-6.9% by 2025 [34][37] New Energy Impact - The pressure from new energy sources on thermal power is expected to weaken marginally, as the abandonment rates for wind and solar energy have increased, indicating challenges in power consumption [41][47] - Government policies are shifting the focus of the new energy sector from rapid expansion to high-quality development, which may reduce the substitution effect of new energy on thermal power [45][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on China Shenhua and China Coal Energy as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and expected benefits from rising coal prices [4][50] - China Shenhua is noted for its comprehensive industry chain and significant resource acquisition plans, while China Coal Energy is recognized for its cost management and resource advantages [50][53]

Core Insights - The report indicates that mainstream thermal power operators have significantly increased profits in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily benefiting from the decline in coal prices and effective cost control by some companies [1][3]. Group 1: Green Energy Performance - In Q3 2025, except for Xintian Green Energy, Jinko Technology, and Yinxing Energy, the net profits of other companies in the green energy sector declined, with the profit increases for Xintian Green Energy and Jinko Technology attributed to unexpected cost reductions and improved investment returns [2]. - The decline in profitability for new energy companies is mainly due to reduced utilization hours and falling electricity prices, with wind power generation dropping by 12.1% for Longyuan Power and 21.3% for Xintian Green Energy in October [2]. - Despite the profit declines, the operating cash flow for green energy companies improved significantly due to a substantial increase in subsidy payments received [2]. Group 2: Thermal and Hydropower Performance - Mainstream thermal power operators saw a notable increase in profits in the first three quarters, benefiting from a decrease in coal prices, with the average spot price of Qinhuangdao down by 191 yuan/ton [3]. - Although thermal power operators face revenue pressure due to declining electricity volume and prices, the reduction in coal prices and other costs has contributed to profit growth [3][4]. - Hydropower performance varied due to water supply conditions, with overall profits remaining stable, similar to thermal power, as financial cost reductions continued to enhance profits [4]. Group 3: Nuclear Power Performance - In Q3 2025, nuclear power companies experienced a decline in net profits, with China Nuclear Power's profits dropping significantly due to the drag from its new energy segment [5]. - The decline in electricity prices is a common challenge for nuclear power companies, with China Guangdong Nuclear Power managing to offset some impacts through cost reductions and increased other income [5]. - Recommendations include focusing on quality hydropower companies and undervalued wind power firms, as well as strong leaders capable of navigating through cycles [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][67]. Core Viewpoints - The third quarter performance review of the power sector indicates that green energy and nuclear power continue to face pressure, while thermal power benefits from cost reduction and hydropower remains stable [3][4]. - The decline in profitability for renewable energy companies is primarily due to reduced utilization hours and falling electricity prices [4][10]. - The significant improvement in cash flow for green energy companies in Q3 is attributed to a substantial increase in subsidy repayments [4][21]. Summary by Sections Green Energy - In Q3 2025, except for Xintian Green Energy, Jinko Technology, and Yinxing Energy, the net profits of other companies decreased, with the profit increase for Xintian Green Energy and Jinko Technology mainly due to unexpected cost reductions and increased investment income [3][10]. - The decline in profitability for renewable energy companies is linked to poor wind resources and increased curtailment rates due to rapid installation of new energy capacity [4][12]. - The average utilization hours for wind power in China decreased by 93 hours year-on-year from January to September 2025 [12]. Thermal Power & Hydropower - Major thermal power operators saw significant profit increases in the first three quarters, benefiting from falling coal prices, with the average spot price of Qinhuangdao down by 191 yuan/ton [5][25]. - Despite revenue pressures from declining electricity prices, the net profits of thermal power operators increased significantly due to lower coal costs [5][25]. - Hydropower performance varied due to water flow conditions, with some large hydropower companies experiencing slight revenue declines [5][35]. Nuclear Power - Nuclear power companies experienced a decline in net profits in Q3 2025, with China Nuclear Power's profit drop being more pronounced due to the impact of the renewable energy sector [6][39]. - The decline in electricity prices is a common challenge for nuclear power companies, although China General Nuclear Power managed to reduce costs and increase other income [6][39]. - The recent changes in Guangdong's electricity pricing policy are expected to positively impact the profitability of nuclear power companies in the future [40][39]. Recommendations - Long-term focus on quality hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, and Chuan Investment Energy, as well as undervalued wind power companies like Longyuan Power and Datang Renewable [42]. - Short to medium-term attention on leading companies with strong cyclical resilience, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power [42]. - Regional targets include companies like Jiazhe New Energy and Qianyuan Power [42][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's electricity generation volume decreased by 14.42% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with average on-grid electricity price dropping by approximately 0.003 yuan/kWh [2][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.876 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 13.98% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year [2][6]. - The report highlights that despite the pressure on both electricity volume and price, the continuous improvement in fuel costs helped mitigate some of the negative impacts [12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.876 billion yuan, a decline of 13.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.723 billion yuan, down 3.94% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company's operating costs were 7.949 billion yuan, a reduction of 21.51% year-on-year, which helped alleviate the pressure from declining volume and price [12]. Electricity Generation - The total electricity generation was 47.891 billion kWh, a decrease of 14.42% year-on-year, with hydropower generation down by 14.80% and thermal power generation down by 18.50% [12]. - The report notes that the company’s hydropower generation was significantly affected by reduced water inflow in the Yalong River basin and the upper reaches of the Yellow River [12]. Cost Management - The average coal price for Q3 2025 was 672.46 yuan/ton, down 175.63 yuan/ton year-on-year, contributing to a decrease in operating costs [12]. - The company recorded an investment income of 291 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 190 million yuan compared to the same period last year [12]. Future Outlook - The Yalong River basin has a significant potential for hydropower development, with an installed capacity of approximately 30 million kW, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [12]. - The report anticipates that the rainfall in Sichuan province has been above average, which could lead to improved water inflow and a more favorable outlook for the remainder of the year [12]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.87 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 0.98 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.68, 15.67, and 14.70 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electricity sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5% growth in electricity consumption for the year, with total installed capacity of wind and solar expected to exceed 1.8 billion kilowatts by 2025. In the first three quarters of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 7.77 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with significant contributions from the secondary industry and high-tech equipment manufacturing [1][9]. - The report highlights a decline in holdings of both active and index funds in the electricity and public utilities sector, with active funds holding 0.65% and index funds holding 1.74% of their portfolios by the end of Q3 2025, both showing a decrease compared to previous quarters [1][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.72 billion kilowatts by the end of September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5%. It is projected that the total installed capacity will reach approximately 3.9 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, representing a 16.5% increase [1][9]. Fund Holdings - Active funds have seen a reduction in their holdings in the electricity sector, with the top five increased holdings being Jiufeng Energy (+0.53%), Jiantou Energy (+0.41%), and others, while the top five decreased holdings include CGN New Energy (-2.74%) and Datang New Energy (-1.61%) [1][9]. - Index funds also reflect a similar trend, with Shanghai Electric (+0.44%) and Shenneng Co. (+0.19%) being the top increased holdings, while Changjiang Electric (-0.58%) and Zheneng Electric (-0.16%) saw the largest decreases [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the thermal power sector, which is expected to see continued performance improvements, and highlights the importance of energy storage policies and the value of flexible power sources. Recommended stocks include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and others in the thermal power sector [2][6]. - Additionally, the report advises on investing in undervalued green electricity stocks, particularly in Hong Kong and wind power operators, with specific recommendations for Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [2][6].