丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 电力行业 2025 年三季报前瞻：火电经营持续改 善，清洁能源延续分化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 综合火电三要素，虽然三季度电价及电量延续回落，但考虑到三季度煤价仍有显著下降，北方 电厂及部分华东、华中地区火电运营商三季度业绩仍将维持积极表现。水电方面，7-8 月主汛 期电量的明显偏弱预计将限制主要水电公司三季度的业绩表现。核电方面，虽然三季度电量预 计稳健增长，但由于不同省份受电价下降影响不同，因此两核业绩或将有所分化。绿电方面， 虽然绿电 7-8 月全国利用小时数持续回落，但是如福建、上海、广东等东部沿海省份风电利用 小时明显修复，部分区域性新能源运营商预计实现优异的业绩表现。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 1 公用事业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 电力行业 2025 2] 年三季报前瞻：火电经营持续改 善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions [3][16][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in August, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The second industry contributed the largest increase, accounting for 59% of the total electricity increment [3][8][9]. - The report notes that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and the TTF spot price at €32.15/MWh as of September 26 [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the stable growth in electricity consumption driven by high temperatures and government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector - In August, the second industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and contributing 59% to the total electricity increment [3][9]. - The manufacturing sector achieved a record monthly growth rate, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, which grew by 9.1% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report recommends investments in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, and thermal power companies, citing favorable conditions for growth and profitability [16][17]. 2. Gas Sector - The report indicates that the supply-demand dynamics for gas remain stable, with slight fluctuations in global gas prices. The LNG price in Northeast Asia decreased by 2.61% to $11.20/mmBtu [18][19]. - It highlights the steady increase in U.S. natural gas inventories and the impact of mild weather on heating and cooling demands, leading to low price volatility [21][27]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated gas companies and city gas firms that are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [41][42]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the public utility and environmental sectors underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, while the power equipment sector outperformed [43][44]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives aim to enhance the quality of energy equipment and promote the development of renewable energy sources [52]. - The report includes updates on major companies' announcements, including contract wins and strategic investments, which are expected to positively impact their future performance [52][53]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the public utility and environmental sectors, indicating their market positions and potential for growth [54].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electricity industry in China, focusing on the performance of various energy sectors in the first half of 2025, including thermal, hydro, nuclear, and renewable energy sources [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Electricity Generation Growth**: In the first half of 2025, industrial electricity generation increased by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching 4,500 billion kWh. Thermal and hydro power faced significant competitive pressure, while nuclear, photovoltaic, and wind energy saw double-digit growth, with photovoltaic energy growing by 20% [1][4]. - **Electricity Price Trends**: The overall electricity price is under pressure and declining, with significant regional differentiation. Northern regions experienced smaller declines, while southern provinces saw more substantial drops, with some months exceeding 15% [1][5]. - **Coal Prices Impact**: Coal prices continued to decline due to weak demand, with the spot price of 5,500 kcal coal dropping by 27.6% year-on-year to 621 RMB/ton by the end of June. High inventory levels are expected to keep costs low in the third quarter [1][6]. - **Public Utility Sector Performance**: The public utility index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points, with a 2.23% increase in the public utility index compared to a 0.03% increase in the CSI 300 index [1][7]. - **Fund Holdings**: Public fund holdings in the public utility sector showed signs of recovery, with a combined holding ratio of 2.16% by the end of the second quarter [1][8]. Performance by Sector - **Thermal Power**: The thermal power sector reported a revenue decline of 3.7% to 572.6 billion RMB but achieved a net profit increase of 6.3% to 44.1 billion RMB, benefiting from lower coal prices [1][10]. - **Hydropower**: Despite challenges from high base figures and lower water levels, hydropower companies managed to achieve a revenue increase of 4.7% to 87.9 billion RMB and a net profit increase of 10.7% to 26.2 billion RMB [1][11]. - **Nuclear and Renewable Energy**: The nuclear and renewable energy sectors faced challenges, with revenues declining by 2% to 153 billion RMB and net profits decreasing by 6.4% to 25.1 billion RMB [1][12]. Investment Recommendations - **Thermal Power**: Focus on companies in southern regions like Baoneng New Energy and Guangzhou Development, as well as high-dividend stocks like Guodian Power [1][13]. - **Renewable Energy**: Look for opportunities in companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, which are expected to benefit from market reforms and policy support [1][13]. - **Hydropower**: Consider relatively undervalued assets in the hydropower sector for investment [1][13]. - **Nuclear Power**: Despite short-term pressures, long-term growth in installed capacity and asset expansion makes companies like China General Nuclear Power a focus for investment [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall electricity consumption growth is expected to recover in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of around 5% [2]. - The elasticity of electricity consumption has decreased significantly, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the electricity industry's performance and outlook for 2025.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, benefiting from the integration of conventional energy platforms within the Huadian Group [5] - The company reported a revenue of 60 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 13.15% to 3.904 billion yuan [6][5] - The average on-grid electricity price was 516.8 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 1.44% year-on-year, indicating stable electricity pricing despite a decline in revenue [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 117,176 million yuan (2023), 112,994 million yuan (2024), 117,075 million yuan (2025E), 125,303 million yuan (2026E), and 126,744 million yuan (2027E) [6][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 4,522 million yuan in 2023 to 7,761 million yuan in 2027, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 4,430.69% in 2023 [6][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.39 yuan in 2023 to 0.67 yuan in 2027 [6][7] - The company completed the acquisition of 16GW of thermal power assets from Huadian Group, with a total transaction price of 7.167 billion yuan [5][6]

Group 1 - Harbin Electric's stock has increased nearly 7%, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 325% [1] - The company reported total revenue of approximately 22.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.051 billion yuan, up 101.06% [1] - UBS forecasts an average annual growth rate of 25% for nuclear equipment gross profit from 2025 to 2028, estimating that each new small modular reactor (SMR) could bring an additional revenue potential of approximately 620 million yuan to Harbin Electric [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan International's report indicates that Harbin Electric has a robust order backlog in its coal power business, with improved order quality compared to the previous cycle, which will continue to enhance the company's profits [2] - In hydropower, orders from pumped storage projects are entering the execution phase, and new capacity is beginning to be released, with large hydropower projects expected to benefit from demand growth driven by the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [2] - The market's approval of nuclear power projects has increased from about 5 units per year from 2019 to 2021 to around 10 units per year from 2022 to 2025, with related orders for the company gradually entering the execution phase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the overall performance of the power sector in the first half of 2025 meets expectations, with thermal power experiencing a decline in revenue but an increase in profit, hydropower remaining stable, and green energy facing pressure [1][2]. Summary by Category Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the power sector (SW) listed companies achieved total operating revenue of 911.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 102.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.44% [2]. - Thermal power generated operating revenue of 572.6 billion yuan, down 3.70% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 6.31% to 44.1 billion yuan [2]. - Hydropower's operating revenue was 87.9 billion yuan, up 4.69% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 10.70% to 26.2 billion yuan [2]. - New energy generation (including nuclear power) faced challenges, with operating revenue of 153.0 billion yuan, a decline of 2.18%, and net profit down 6.42% to 25.1 billion yuan [2]. Thermal Power Insights - The significant drop in coal prices since the beginning of the year has mitigated the pressure from declining volume and price; however, regional price differentiation remains a challenge [2]. - The upcoming comprehensive adjustment of capacity prices in 2026 is expected to reshape the profitability model of thermal power [2]. - Recommended investment themes include stable performance targets with expected stable electricity prices, and high-dividend quality stocks as capital expenditure peaks [2]. Hydropower and Nuclear Power Potential - Hydropower companies are expected to benefit from decreasing interest expenses and the expiration of depreciation on power station units, which will continue to release profit space [3]. - Nuclear power is seeing a normalization in unit approvals, with accelerated investment and technology in nuclear fusion, indicating potential for commercialization [3]. Green Energy Outlook - The "Document 136" promotes the comprehensive entry of new energy into market trading, with rapid installation in the first half of the year leading to increased consumption challenges in the second half, impacting market prices [3]. - Policies supporting green energy consumption, such as direct connections and green certificate policies, are expected to catalyze growth in this sector [3]. - Recommended focus on undervalued green energy stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and wind power operators with stable electricity price expectations [4]. Investment Recommendations - Key thermal power stocks to watch include Huadian International, Huaneng International, Baoneng New Energy, Guangzhou Development, and Guodian Power [4]. - For green energy, prioritize undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market and wind power operators, with a focus on Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [4]. - In hydropower and nuclear sectors, recommended stocks include Yangtze Power, State Power Investment Corporation, Sichuan Investment Energy, China National Nuclear Power, and China General Nuclear Power [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 27, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures weakened again after a weak rebound, giving back most of the gains since August 22. It is recommended to view the market with the idea of a rebound followed by a decline. The stabilization and rebound of coal and coke futures still depend on the recovery of the terminal demand in the steel market [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On August 27, the main contract J2601 of coke futures closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 2.82%; the main contract JM2601 of coking coal futures closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.87%. The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of both contracts showed a downward trend, and the MACD green columns continued to expand for two days [5][7]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in ports remained unchanged. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some areas increased by 30 yuan/ton. The production of independent coking plants increased slightly, while the production of steel mills decreased. The inventory of port coke declined for two consecutive weeks, and steel mills continued to reduce inventory [7][10]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **News**: From August 25 to September 3, some coking enterprises in Henan Province will implement independent production restrictions of 20 - 35%. Since August 26, coking enterprises have raised the coke price. On August 20, Mongolia passed a government resolution on increasing export measures [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of coke, the production of independent coking plants increased slightly, and the production of steel mills decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke has been profitable for two consecutive weeks. In terms of coking coal, from January to July, the year - on - year decline in the import volume of coal and lignite expanded, and the inventory of mines and coking plants changed. The spot price of coking coal is difficult to rise continuously [10]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The performance of some coal and steel enterprises in the first half of 2025 declined. The western oil and gas energy corridor project in Xinjiang achieved a breakthrough. The demand for green power is expected to increase, and the coal price of thermal power is expected to decline. The cement industry in Fujian and Jiangxi provinces held a meeting to discuss "anti - involution". The anti - dumping review of Chinese steel products in Australia was postponed, and the export of Russian thermal coal increased [12][13][14]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the inventory of coke and coking coal, and the basis of futures contracts [16][19][20][32].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 883 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.23% [1] - Net profit for the same period was 127 million yuan, showing a decline of 4.54% compared to the previous year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The decrease in net profit is attributed to lower water inflow, which was 23% less than the same period last year and 27.7% below the multi-year average [1] - Despite the reduced water inflow, the company's electricity generation increased to 3.201 billion kilowatt-hours, up from 3.152 billion kilowatt-hours in the previous year, marking a rise of 1.55% [1] Generation and Revenue Impact - The increase in electricity generation contributed to higher revenue and profit from power generation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the green electricity sector, benefiting from the appreciation of green certificate values and high installation growth [1]. Core Insights - The report continues to recommend investment opportunities in green electricity operators against the backdrop of increasing green certificate values. In June 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 278 million green certificates, a month-on-month increase of 29.33%, involving 198,700 renewable energy projects, with 196 million being tradable certificates, accounting for 70.64% [4][6]. - Key industry data shows that in the first half of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 4.84 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The cumulative power generation was 4.54 trillion kWh, up 0.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [4][13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW public utility index fell by 1.84% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, with declines across various sectors including thermal power and solar energy [9]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in H1 2025 was 4.84 trillion kWh, with growth rates of 8.7% in the primary industry, 2.4% in the secondary industry, 7.1% in the tertiary industry, and 4.1% in urban and rural residential use [13]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation in H1 2025 was 4.54 trillion kWh, with thermal and hydro power generation declining by 2.4% and 2.9% respectively, while wind and solar power generation increased by 11.1% and 18.3% [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in July 2025 was 382 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month [36]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 663 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.91% but a week-on-week increase of 10 RMB/ton [46]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 160.66 meters as of August 1, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year declines of 49.02% and 44.94% respectively [57]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a continued trend of safe and orderly development in the nuclear sector [71]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in solar energy and charging stations, highlighting companies such as Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and China Nuclear Power as key recommendations [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, achieving operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.984 billion yuan, up 14.22% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2][6]. - The company has approved a proposal to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the company's long-term growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.984 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.22% growth compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The performance was supported by favorable water inflow conditions, with the Wudongde reservoir's inflow increasing by 9.01% and the Three Gorges reservoir's inflow rising by 8.39% year-on-year [12]. Project Development - The board approved the investment in the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which aims to enhance navigation capacity and support the company's high-quality development [12]. - The project involves the construction of new locks and the expansion of navigation channels, with a total construction period of 91 months [12]. Dividend and Valuation - The company maintains a long-term commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70%, positioning itself as a strong dividend stock [12]. - The expected dividend yield compared to the ten-year government bond yield has reached the 98.60th percentile for 2023, indicating a favorable investment value [12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.38 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.46 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.24, 19.22, and 19.06 [12].