证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 27 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数涨跌不一。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.39%，收 报 4162.88 点；深证成指跌 0.06%，收报 14495.09 点；创业板指跌 1.04%， 收报 3310.3 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.15%，收报 1488.02 点。总体上，全天个股 涨多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3267 只个股上涨，2066 只个股下跌，146 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 24880 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 504 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，钢铁、煤炭、有色金属、公用 事业、农林牧渔等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 3.37%、3.20%、3.10%、2.27%、2.06%， 建筑材料、通信、电子、汽车、家用电器等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 1.45%、1.38%、 0.71%、0.41%、0.39%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的概念板块为稀有金属精选、稀土、培育 钻石、小金 ...

华宝基金 wabao WP Fund Car The State The First 2026年02月 | 3A系列ETF当日场内行情 ■ 中证A100ETF基金 A50ETF华宝 A500ETF华宝 159596 562000 563500 +0.78% +1.0% +0.94% 數据来源:沪深交易所等,行情数据截至 A50ETF华宝于2024.3.18上市,中证A100ETF基金于2022.8.1上 市,A500ETF华宝于2024.12.2上市 当日大市行情 m +0.87% +1.36% +0.99% 创业板指 上证指数 深证成指 两市成交额2.2万亿元 较上一日+2194亿元 全市场个股涨跌数 86日 1392景 4006 =1 上涨 il 持平 『下跌 资金净流入TOP3行业(申万一级) +36.19亿元 +39.7917元 机构观点 国投证券:节后行情核心驱动力有望来自三方面 一是政策预期推动或密集落地,两会临近将明确新质生产力、新型能 源体系等产业支持细则,例如6G、水电、机器人等领域有望获得专项 资金或试点推广,直接提振相关板块估值提升预期。二是流动性环境 改善,节后资金回流叠加假期人民币汇 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The company's electricity generation for Q4 2025 reached 1,122.50 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.92%. However, the average on-grid electricity price decreased to 0.414 yuan/kWh, down by 0.021 yuan/kWh compared to the previous year. The significant increase in installed capacity supported stable growth in electricity generation, but the decline in electricity prices may limit revenue growth in Q4. Overall, the company's operational performance for the entire year remains positive due to continuous improvement in the first three quarters [2][6][13] Summary by Relevant Sections Electricity Generation and Pricing - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 1,122.50 billion kWh, up 4.92% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price was 0.414 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.021 yuan/kWh year-on-year. The total electricity generation for 2025 was 4,674.65 billion kWh, reflecting a 1.74% increase year-on-year, with an average on-grid price of 400.66 yuan/MWh [2][6] Operational Performance - The company added 764.4 MW of thermal power capacity in 2025, with 298 MW added in Q4. The thermal power generation in Q4 was 924.63 billion kWh, a 6.98% increase year-on-year. Hydropower generation decreased by 18.49% year-on-year to 97.80 billion kWh due to lower water inflow. Wind power generation increased by 2.81% to 55.52 billion kWh, while solar power generation surged by 41.25% to 44.55 billion kWh [13][6] Cost and Profitability - The coal price in Q4 showed a slight recovery but remained lower year-on-year, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 765.44 yuan/ton, down 57.15 yuan/ton year-on-year. The overall cost structure is expected to improve, but the rising coal prices may pressure profitability in Q4. Despite this, the company's operational performance for the year is still projected to be positive due to improvements in the first three quarters [13][6] Future Growth and Dividends - The company is set to begin operations at the Dadu River hydropower stations, which have a total capacity of 3.52 million kW, enhancing growth certainty. The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.02% based on expected 2025 earnings [13][6]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between 567.35 million and 632.82 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 160.00% to 190.00% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 562.03 million and 632.87 million yuan, indicating a growth of 138.00% to 168.00% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates a 45% increase in water inflow for 2025 compared to the previous year [2] - The total electricity generation for 2025 is expected to be 1,212,021.46 million kWh, a 71.90% increase from 705,070.87 million kWh in the previous year, leading to increased revenue and profit from electricity generation [2] - Specific electricity generation figures for various power stations in 2025 include: - Puding Hydropower Station: 42,938.77 million kWh - Yiziduo Hydropower Station: 99,062.07 million kWh - Yutang Hydropower Station: 21,103.44 million kWh - Qingxi Hydropower Station: 5,774.21 million kWh - Niudu Hydropower Station: 3,917.66 million kWh - Guangzhao Hydropower Station: 331,805.66 million kWh - Dongqing Hydropower Station: 367,944.95 million kWh - Mamaya Hydropower Station: 181,165.57 million kWh - Shannipo Hydropower Station: 91,521.53 million kWh - Guangzhao Photovoltaic Station: 21,755.65 million kWh - Mamaya Photovoltaic Station: 23,081.52 million kWh - Dongqing Photovoltaic Station: 10,049.55 million kWh - Zhenning Bacao Phase I Photovoltaic Station: 11,900.88 million kWh [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.57%, the Utilities Index rose by 0.06%, and the Environmental Index grew by 0.27%, with relative weekly returns of 0.63% and 0.84% respectively [2] - Among the 31 primary industry sectors classified by Shenwan, the Utilities and Environmental sectors ranked 13th and 11th in terms of growth [2] Power Sector Performance - In the power sector, thermal power increased by 0.35%, while hydropower decreased by 1.76%, and renewable energy generation rose by 1.61% [2] - The water sector saw a decline of 0.28%, and the gas sector fell by 1.17% [2] Important Events - Shanxi Province announced a bidding mechanism for new energy projects for 2026, with a total bidding scale of 95.76 billion kWh, including 35.27 billion kWh for wind power and 60.49 billion kWh for solar power [3] - The bidding price range is set between 0.2 and 0.32 yuan/kWh, with a bidding capacity sufficient rate of 120% for both wind and solar [3] Water Pricing Trends - Water prices in China have remained low due to complex adjustment procedures, but over 26 cities are expected to raise water prices by 2025 due to increasing cost pressures on water supply companies [4] - The adjustment will likely affect residential, non-residential, and special industry water pricing simultaneously [4] Investment Strategies - In the utilities sector, coal and electricity prices are declining, which may help maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies, with recommendations for Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [5] - Continuous government support for renewable energy is expected to stabilize profitability in this sector, with recommendations for leading companies like Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [5] - Nuclear power companies are anticipated to maintain stable profitability, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [5] - High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Yangtze Power [5] - The gas sector is advised to focus on companies with capabilities in marine gas trading, such as Jiufeng Energy [5] Environmental Sector Insights - The water and waste incineration industries are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow, suggesting investment opportunities in the environmental sector [6] - The domestic scientific instrument market, exceeding $90 billion, presents substantial opportunities for domestic replacements, recommending companies like Juguang Technology and Wanyi Technology [6] - The EU's SAF blending policy is expected to increase demand for raw materials, benefiting the domestic waste oil recycling industry, with recommendations for Shangaohuaneng [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to have a stable performance outlook for the entire year, supported by an increase in electricity prices despite a decline in power generation [5][12]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's controlled enterprises reached 0.390 yuan per kilowatt-hour, an increase of approximately 8.03% year-on-year [5][12]. - The company has experienced a significant decrease in hydropower generation due to lower water inflow, with a year-on-year reduction of 20.94% in the fourth quarter [5][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Operational Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company completed a total power generation of 331.42 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 14.22% year-on-year [5]. - Hydropower generation was 187.69 billion kilowatt-hours, down 20.94% year-on-year, while thermal power generation was 111.11 billion kilowatt-hours, down 8.43% [12]. - The company recovered some overdue electricity fees from previous years, which contributed positively to the fourth-quarter performance [12]. Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 0.92 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 15.25, 15.61, and 14.47 for the same years [12]. Growth Potential - The company has significant growth potential in the Yalong River basin, with an estimated developable hydropower capacity of approximately 30 million kilowatts [12]. - As of June 2025, the company had 19.2 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity in operation and an additional 3.72 million kilowatts under approval and construction [12].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from ChuanTuo Energy (600674.SH) highlights significant growth in power generation and sales for the year 2025, despite a decrease in average on-grid electricity prices across its various energy sectors [1]. Group 1: Overall Performance - For the year 2025, the company's total power generation reached 6.627 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.85% [1]. - The total on-grid electricity volume was 6.515 billion kilowatt-hours, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.86% [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.206 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which represents a decrease of 6.79% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Hydropower Performance - The hydropower segment achieved a total power generation of 6.356 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.40% [1]. - The on-grid electricity volume for hydropower was 6.246 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 15.41% [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower was 0.195 yuan per kilowatt-hour, down by 4.88% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Performance - The photovoltaic segment reported a total power generation of 0.271 billion kilowatt-hours, which is a year-on-year decrease of 13.42% [1]. - The on-grid electricity volume for photovoltaic power was 0.269 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.23% [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price for photovoltaic power, including national subsidies, was 0.454 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is a decrease of 8.47% compared to the previous year [1].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly recommending companies involved in coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The growth contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well as residential consumption, were 2%, 49%, 29%, and 19% respectively [4][6]. - The secondary industry remains the largest contributor to electricity consumption, accounting for over 60% of the total, with significant growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5][6]. - Natural gas prices have shown fluctuations, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $3.31/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 7.30%. The report notes that the domestic LNG ex-factory price is 3915 yuan/ton, down 2.85% week-on-week [1][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In November 2025, the electricity consumption by the first, second, and third industries grew by 7.9%, 4.4%, and 10.3% respectively, while residential consumption increased by 9.8% [4][6]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a 6.7% increase in electricity consumption, with automotive manufacturing leading at a 10% growth rate [5][6]. Natural Gas Sector - The report indicates that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the U.S. market showing a significant drop in spot prices. The report anticipates that the demand for natural gas will increase as winter approaches, potentially stabilizing prices [1][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas companies and those benefiting from cost reductions and improved profitability due to lower oil prices [39][40]. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their diversified revenue sources [1]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to expected improvements in profit margins from reduced capital expenditures [1]. - Nuclear power firms like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [1]. - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended for their stable returns and increasing operational value [1]. - The report also suggests investment in gas companies like Shenzhen Energy and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved market conditions [1][39].

Market Overview - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.28% this week, while the public utility index fell by 0.59%. In contrast, the environmental protection index rose by 0.25%, with relative weekly returns of -0.31% and 0.53% respectively [2][3] - Among the 31 primary industry sectors classified by Shenwan, public utilities and environmental protection ranked 25th and 18th in terms of growth [2][3] - In the electricity sector, thermal power declined by 0.88%, hydropower by 1.00%, and new energy generation by 0.75%. The water sector fell by 1.40%, while the gas sector saw a slight increase of 0.11% [2][3] Important Events - From January to November, the industrial power generation reached 88,567 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.4%. In November alone, the generation was 7,792 billion kWh, with a daily average of 259.7 billion kWh [3] - In November, industrial thermal power shifted from growth to decline, while hydropower experienced rapid growth. Nuclear and solar power generation accelerated, and wind power shifted from decline to growth. Specifically, industrial thermal power fell by 4.2%, while hydropower grew by 17.1%, nuclear power by 4.7%, wind power by 22.0%, and solar power by 23.4% [3] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to adjust the signing ratio requirements for long-term contracts for coal-fired power generation enterprises. The total signed electricity volume should not be less than 70% of the previous year's actual online electricity volume, with a minimum of 60% under certain conditions [4] Investment Strategy - In the public utility sector, coal and electricity prices are expected to decline simultaneously, maintaining reasonable profitability for thermal power. Recommendations include major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [6] - Continuous government support for new energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability in this sector, with recommendations for leading companies like Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [6] - The growth in installed capacity and power generation is expected to offset downward pressure on electricity prices, with stable profitability projected for nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power [6] - In the environmental sector, the water and waste incineration industries are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow. Recommendations include companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market showed positive performance this week, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.82%, the utilities index increasing by 2.42%, and the environmental index up by 2.71% [2] Market Review - The utilities and environmental sectors ranked 9th and 7th respectively among the 31 primary industry classifications by Shenwan [2] - Within the electricity sector, thermal power rose by 2.09%, hydropower increased by 2.00%, and new energy generation grew by 3.08% [2] - The water sector saw a rise of 1.05%, while the gas sector increased by 1.23% [2] Important Events - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, announced the "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations," effective from January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing the ecological environment monitoring system [2] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the utilities and environmental sectors experienced a reduction in fund holdings, with 122 stocks held, down by 4 from Q2 [3] - The total market value of holdings in these sectors was 49.695 billion, a decrease of 29.64% from the previous quarter [3] - The proportion of holdings in these sectors relative to total fund equity investments fell by 0.43 percentage points to 0.55% [3] Investment Strategy - In the utilities sector, recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric due to stable profitability [4] - Continued government support for new energy development suggests a gradual stabilization in profitability for leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4] - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable earnings [4] - High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes, with recommendations for leading firms like Yangtze Power [4] - In the environmental sector, opportunities in water and waste incineration industries are noted, with recommendations for firms like China Everbright Environment [5] - The domestic waste oil recycling industry is expected to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy, with recommendations for firms like Shanggou Environmental Energy [5]