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美元失宠,美股走强:这局能维持多久?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-09-24 09:23
Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly favoring U.S. stocks while simultaneously hedging against dollar risk, reflecting a lack of trust in U.S. fiscal and monetary policies [2][5][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index has dropped over 10% in 2025, indicating significant depreciation for a global reserve currency [2][5] - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. stocks remain one of the most attractive assets globally, with over 80% of foreign funds entering the U.S. stock market hedging against currency risk [5][6] - This shift represents a paradigm change, as historically, investors did not pay much attention to currency risk when investing in U.S. stocks [5][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy Concerns - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, while other regions like Europe have ended their easing policies, leading to a loss of interest rate advantage for the dollar [6] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, especially with new appointments that align closely with political influences [6][8] - The combination of political influence on monetary policy and rising fiscal deficits raises doubts about the dollar's long-term stability [7][8] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.2% of GDP in 2024, with total federal debt nearing $36 trillion, over 30% of which will need refinancing within the next year [7] - The Treasury's reliance on rolling over debt raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, especially if monetary policy becomes politicized [7][8] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are opting for a strategy of "buying stocks while avoiding the dollar," indicating a preference for equity exposure over currency risk [6][8] - The current market dynamics suggest that while investors may benefit in the short term, the long-term viability of this strategy is questionable as the credibility of the dollar erodes [8][9]
中证1000美元对冲指数报6576.06点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities 1000 USD Hedged Index has shown significant growth, with a 27.49% increase year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the market [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities 1000 USD Hedged Index closed at 6576.06 points [1] - The index has risen by 11.80% over the past month and 25.83% over the last three months [1] - The index is designed to simulate investments in USD-denominated assets while hedging against exchange rate risks using forward contracts [1] Group 2: Index Structure - The index uses a base date of December 31, 2010, with a base point of 5155.555 [1] - Forward positions in the index are automatically rolled over at the end of each month [1] - The index does not undergo adjustments, maintaining its original structure [1]
中证500美元对冲指数报5763.54点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 08:24
Core Insights - The CSI 500 USD Hedged Index reported a significant increase, closing at 5763.54 points, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - Over the past month, the index has risen by 9.37%, while it has increased by 15.76% over the last three months and 16.38% year-to-date [1] Index Details - The CSI USD Hedged Index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the index while hedging against exchange rate risks through long positions in one-month forward contracts of USD to offshore RMB [1] - The index automatically rolls over its forward positions at the end of each month, and it has a base date of December 31, 2010, with a base point of 4936.716 [2]
中证1000美元对冲指数报6251.40点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-18 08:20
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities 1000 USD Hedged Index has shown significant growth, indicating a positive trend in the market for USD-denominated investments in China [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities 1000 USD Hedged Index reported a value of 6251.40 points [1] - The index has increased by 10.71% over the past month [1] - Over the last three months, the index has risen by 18.36% [1] - Year-to-date, the index has experienced a growth of 21.19% [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the underlying index while hedging against exchange rate risks through one-month forward contracts of USD to offshore RMB [1] - Forward contracts are rolled over automatically at the end of each month [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2010, with a base point of 5155.555 [1]
上证50美元对冲指数报2501.76点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-15 08:01
Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index reported at 2501.76 points [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index has increased by 2.85% over the past month, 3.51% over the past three months, and 6.94% year-to-date [2]. - This index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the underlying index while hedging against exchange rate risks through long positions in one-month forward contracts of USD to offshore RMB [2]. Group 2: Index Calculation - The index uses December 31, 2010, as the base date, with a base point of 1977.366 points [2]. - The one-month forward contracts for foreign currency against local currency are rolled over at the end of each month [2].
中证1000美元对冲指数报6114.05点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-13 08:08
Core Viewpoint - The China Securities 1000 USD Hedged Index has shown significant growth, indicating a positive trend in the market for USD-denominated investments in China [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities 1000 USD Hedged Index reported a value of 6114.05 points [1] - The index has increased by 8.00% over the past month [1] - Over the last three months, the index has risen by 13.71% [1] - Year-to-date, the index has experienced an 18.53% increase [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the underlying index while hedging against exchange rate risks through one-month forward contracts of USD to offshore RMB [1] - Forward contracts are rolled over automatically at the end of each month [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2010, with a base point of 5155.555 [1]
上证50美元对冲指数报2481.20点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-13 08:01
Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and continued to rise, with the Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index reported at 2481.20 points [1] - The Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index has increased by 2.06% over the past month, 4.63% over the past three months, and 6.06% year-to-date [2] - The index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the underlying index while hedging exchange rate risks through long positions in one-month forward contracts of USD against offshore RMB, with contracts rolled over at the end of each month [2]
中证1000美元对冲指数报6096.26点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-12 08:07
Core Insights - The China Securities 1000 USD Hedged Index reported a value of 6096.26 points, showing a strong upward trend [1] - The index has increased by 7.69% over the past month, 15.01% over the past three months, and 18.18% year-to-date [1] Index Overview - The China Securities USD Hedged Index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the underlying index while hedging exchange rate risks through long contracts on the USD to offshore RMB one-month forward [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2010, with a base point of 5155.555 [1] - The index does not undergo adjustments, and the forward positions are automatically rolled over at the end of each month [1]
上证50美元对冲指数报2465.71点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-12 07:54
Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and continued to rise, with the Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index reported at 2465.71 points [1] - The Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index has increased by 1.42% in the past month, 4.72% over the last three months, and 5.40% year-to-date [2] - The index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the underlying index while hedging exchange rate risks through long positions in one-month forward contracts of USD against offshore RMB, with contracts rolled over at the end of each month [2]
中证1000美元对冲指数报6002.44点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-11 08:14
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of the CSI 1000 USD Hedged Index, which has shown significant growth over the past month, three months, and year-to-date, indicating a positive trend in the market for USD-denominated investments in China [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 1000 USD Hedged Index reported a rise of 6.95% over the past month [1] - The index increased by 11.86% over the last three months [1] - Year-to-date, the index has grown by 16.37% [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The CSI USD Hedged Index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the index while hedging against exchange rate risks through long positions in one-month forward contracts of USD to offshore RMB [1] - Forward contracts are rolled over automatically at the end of each month [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2010, with a base point of 5155.555 [1]