Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The valuation of p-xylene (PX) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) is expected to decline following the drop in oil prices. It is recommended to conduct reverse hedging at high prices [1]. - For monoethylene glycol (MEG), it is advised to close long positions and conduct reverse hedging at high prices. Above 4,500 yuan/ton, the valuation of MEG is difficult to maintain. It is recommended to close long positions and buy put options. After the oil price correction, interval trading of MEG is suggested [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract was 9,028, up 358 or 4.13% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread was 418, up 24 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract was 6,316, and the PTA5 - 9 spread was 246, up 46 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,597, up 220 or 5.03% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread was not provided [2]. - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract was 7,780, up 272 or 3.62% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread was -188 [2]. - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract was 771.8, up 107 or 16.10% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread was not provided [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price of PX was 1,345.67 US dollars/ton, up 266.5 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 297.3, up 17 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The spot price of PTA in East China was 7,200 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 05 - 15. The monthly average price was 5,895 yuan/ton (monthly average basis 05 - 40), and the monthly settlement price was 5,720 yuan/ton (monthly settlement basis 05 - 45.38) [3]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG was 4,810 yuan/ton, up 545 from the previous day [2]. - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ naphtha price was 991.5 US dollars/ton, up 215.12 from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was -4.34, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price was 102.84 US dollars/barrel, up 8.64 from the previous day [2]. Fundamentals - **PX**: A 1.6 - million - ton PX plant in East China unexpectedly shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On March 9, the PX price rose, and a May Asian spot was traded at 1,334. The PX valuation is expected to decline following the oil price, with a reasonable valuation in the range of 8,000 - 8,500 [3][6]. - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 7,200 yuan/ton. The PTA valuation is expected to decline following the oil price, with a reasonable valuation in the range of 5,500 - 5,800 [3][6]. - **MEG**: From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the average daily shipment of MEG from a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 3,600 tons, and that from two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 7,000 tons. On March 9, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.068 million tons, a net increase of 66,000 tons from the previous period. A 360,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Taiwan restarted recently. The planned maintenance time of part of the capacity of a 600,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang has changed, and there is no clear time. A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan is planned to restart around mid - March [3][5]. - **Polyester**: On March 9, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate estimated to be less than 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 42% by 3:00 pm. Over the weekend, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally good, with an average sales rate estimated to be over 100% [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price was relatively weak last week, recording its first weekly decline in nearly two weeks, as the market's trading logic returned to the judgment of the commodity attributes of crude oil. In the long - term, the expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attributes remains unchanged, which is the core factor weighing on oil prices. However, the improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may boost oil prices in the third quarter and support refined oil products. In terms of financial attributes, the market still has a relatively high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the short - term macro - economic atmosphere is difficult to improve. Politically, although there are no obvious signs of an escalation of conflicts, it is unlikely to cool down completely in the short term, and fluctuations will continue. Overall, the oil price may continue to fluctuate widely in the near future, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation [66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price mainly fluctuated. Although there were fluctuations in the second half of the week, the market adjusted quickly, and the weekly line recorded its first decline since July. It is expected that the oil price will maintain a fluctuating trend this week with some room for correction. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [495 - 535] yuan/barrel. In operation, short - spread layout can be considered, and short positions can be cautiously taken at high prices, but beware of oil price fluctuations exceeding expectations due to geopolitical uncertainties [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price fluctuated widely. The core driving factors were the long - term loose supply and the less - than - expected consumption recovery. Although the oil price rebounded on Friday due to the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil, the market digested it quickly over the weekend and returned to the previous trend [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomy - **Inflation increase meets expectations**: The latest US inflation data showed that the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, meeting market expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, but the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The interest rate market still mainly anticipates an interest rate cut in September [25]. - **Increasing expectation of tariff cooling**: Trump said that the US may impose tariffs on imported drugs and semiconductors before August 1, and may reach "two or three" trade agreements by then, with the agreement with India being the most likely. For small economies without customized tax rates, a "slightly higher than 10%" standard tariff may be imposed, which may make the market more optimistic about the negotiations at the beginning of next month and stabilize market sentiment [28]. - **Geopolitical fluctuations remain subdued**: Trump expressed disappointment at Russia's refusal to cease fire and threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict does not end in 50 days. Russia did not show weakness. In the US - Iran negotiations, the US and E3 countries agreed to set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If an agreement cannot be reached, the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism will be activated. The continuous attacks between Israel and Syria may keep the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase maintains pressure**: In June, OPEC+ daily oil production was 41.56 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels compared with May, slightly lower than the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day due to some countries' compensatory production cuts. Kazakhstan's production still exceeded its quota. Market rumors that Saudi Arabia asked statistical agencies to lower the June report results may lead to a looser production expectation and suppress oil prices [36]. - **EU sanctions on Russia and uncertain Russian oil exports**: The EU's new sanctions on Russian oil may change Russian oil exports [40]. - **Slight decline in US production**: The US oil production has slightly decreased [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Cooling consumption expectation**: OPEC believes that the consumption growth in the second half of this year may be better than expected, while IEA believes that the supply - side growth will continue to pressure the market in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the summer consumption to effectively support oil prices [46]. - **Manufacturing in contraction**: The manufacturing industry in the US and China is in a contraction state, which may affect oil demand [50]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil destocking may support prices**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.859 million barrels, against an expected - 552,000 barrels and a previous value of 7.07 million barrels. The decline in US oil production and the increase in refinery production, along with the end of the 18 - week accumulation of the US strategic oil reserve, may support the WTI price [56]. - **Potential for refined oil inventory accumulation**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending July 11 was 3.399 million barrels, against an expected - 952,000 barrels and a previous value of - 2.658 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was 4.173 million barrels, against an expected 199,000 barrels and a previous value of - 825,000 barrels. The increase in refinery production and the incomplete recovery of summer travel consumption led to the inventory accumulation. As consumption recovers, it may boost refined oil prices and there may be opportunities for long positions in refined oil cracking [60]. 3.4 View Summary - Recently, the oil price may fluctuate widely, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation. The improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may support oil prices in the third quarter and refined oil products. The market still expects an interest rate cut in September, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue [66].