沪深京三市成交额高达31770亿元，创历史第二高纪录，AI硬件、稀土、卫星互联网板块集体狂飙，寒 武纪-U单日成交超200亿元股价突破1380元。 8月25日下午3点，"31770亿元"！这个数字被永久定格在A股历史记录中。这是A股历史上第二次单日成 交额突破3万亿元大关，仅次于去年10月8日的3.49万亿元。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3877.13 | 12417.31 | 1602.27 | | +51.37 +1.34% +251.25 +2.07% +2.00 +0.12% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1278.82 | 2753.67 | 6159.37 | | +30.95 +2.48% +71.11 +2.65% +98.55 +1.63% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4459.66 | 6941.67 | 5301.15 | | +81.66 +1.87% +118.83 +1.74% +102.23 +1.97% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price was relatively weak last week, recording its first weekly decline in nearly two weeks, as the market's trading logic returned to the judgment of the commodity attributes of crude oil. In the long - term, the expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attributes remains unchanged, which is the core factor weighing on oil prices. However, the improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may boost oil prices in the third quarter and support refined oil products. In terms of financial attributes, the market still has a relatively high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the short - term macro - economic atmosphere is difficult to improve. Politically, although there are no obvious signs of an escalation of conflicts, it is unlikely to cool down completely in the short term, and fluctuations will continue. Overall, the oil price may continue to fluctuate widely in the near future, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation [66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price mainly fluctuated. Although there were fluctuations in the second half of the week, the market adjusted quickly, and the weekly line recorded its first decline since July. It is expected that the oil price will maintain a fluctuating trend this week with some room for correction. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [495 - 535] yuan/barrel. In operation, short - spread layout can be considered, and short positions can be cautiously taken at high prices, but beware of oil price fluctuations exceeding expectations due to geopolitical uncertainties [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price fluctuated widely. The core driving factors were the long - term loose supply and the less - than - expected consumption recovery. Although the oil price rebounded on Friday due to the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil, the market digested it quickly over the weekend and returned to the previous trend [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomy - **Inflation increase meets expectations**: The latest US inflation data showed that the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, meeting market expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, but the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The interest rate market still mainly anticipates an interest rate cut in September [25]. - **Increasing expectation of tariff cooling**: Trump said that the US may impose tariffs on imported drugs and semiconductors before August 1, and may reach "two or three" trade agreements by then, with the agreement with India being the most likely. For small economies without customized tax rates, a "slightly higher than 10%" standard tariff may be imposed, which may make the market more optimistic about the negotiations at the beginning of next month and stabilize market sentiment [28]. - **Geopolitical fluctuations remain subdued**: Trump expressed disappointment at Russia's refusal to cease fire and threatened to impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict does not end in 50 days. Russia did not show weakness. In the US - Iran negotiations, the US and E3 countries agreed to set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If an agreement cannot be reached, the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism will be activated. The continuous attacks between Israel and Syria may keep the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase maintains pressure**: In June, OPEC+ daily oil production was 41.56 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels compared with May, slightly lower than the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day due to some countries' compensatory production cuts. Kazakhstan's production still exceeded its quota. Market rumors that Saudi Arabia asked statistical agencies to lower the June report results may lead to a looser production expectation and suppress oil prices [36]. - **EU sanctions on Russia and uncertain Russian oil exports**: The EU's new sanctions on Russian oil may change Russian oil exports [40]. - **Slight decline in US production**: The US oil production has slightly decreased [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Cooling consumption expectation**: OPEC believes that the consumption growth in the second half of this year may be better than expected, while IEA believes that the supply - side growth will continue to pressure the market in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the summer consumption to effectively support oil prices [46]. - **Manufacturing in contraction**: The manufacturing industry in the US and China is in a contraction state, which may affect oil demand [50]. - **Slight slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Crude oil destocking may support prices**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory was - 3.859 million barrels, against an expected - 552,000 barrels and a previous value of 7.07 million barrels. The decline in US oil production and the increase in refinery production, along with the end of the 18 - week accumulation of the US strategic oil reserve, may support the WTI price [56]. - **Potential for refined oil inventory accumulation**: The US gasoline inventory for the week ending July 11 was 3.399 million barrels, against an expected - 952,000 barrels and a previous value of - 2.658 million barrels. The refined oil inventory was 4.173 million barrels, against an expected 199,000 barrels and a previous value of - 825,000 barrels. The increase in refinery production and the incomplete recovery of summer travel consumption led to the inventory accumulation. As consumption recovers, it may boost refined oil prices and there may be opportunities for long positions in refined oil cracking [60]. 3.4 View Summary - Recently, the oil price may fluctuate widely, and the center may decline under the influence of the loose supply expectation. The improvement in summer demand on the consumption side may support oil prices in the third quarter and refined oil products. The market still expects an interest rate cut in September, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue [66].

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, exceeding the annual target of around 5%[1] - In Q2 2025, GDP growth was 5.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[1] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP in Q2 was 52.3%, up from 51.7% in Q1[10] Industrial Growth - In June 2025, the industrial added value for large enterprises increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 1.0 percentage point rebound[15] - Manufacturing remains the core driver of industrial growth, with significant increases in high-tech sectors such as electrical machinery (11.4%) and new energy vehicles (18.8%)[16] - The industrial sales rate in June was 94.3%, reflecting ongoing pressure on enterprise sales[16] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from May[18] - Service consumption showed a steady recovery, with a 5.3% increase in retail sales for services in the first half of 2025[18] - Online retail sales of physical goods in June rose by 6.0%, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales[19] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 2.8% in the first half of 2025, down from 3.7% in the first five months[3] - Non-real estate investment surged by 6.6%, significantly higher than total investment growth[3] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2%[24] Risks - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, and growth stabilization policies may not meet anticipated outcomes[4]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong fluctuations, leading to a significant recovery in public fund issuance in the first half of the year, with 680 new funds launched, a 7.94% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Stock funds have become the main force in fundraising, with 390 stock funds launched, accounting for 57.35% of the total, representing a 66.67% increase year-on-year [1] - Passive index funds dominated the stock fund issuance, with 293 funds launched, making up 75.13% of the total stock funds [1] Group 2 - In the FOF fund category, 31 new FOF funds were launched, marking an 82.35% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Bond funds, mixed funds, and QDII funds saw a decline in issuance, with 131 bond funds launched, accounting for 19.26% of the total [2] - Among bond funds, medium- and long-term pure bond funds were predominant, with 60 new funds launched, representing 45.80% of the new bond fund total [2] Group 3 - A total of 490 new equity funds were launched in the first half of the year, accounting for 72.06% of all new funds, indicating a recovery in equity fund issuance and reflecting investor confidence in the A-share market [3] - The market has shown strong performance since June, with major indices achieving short-term breakthroughs, suggesting potential for further upward movement [3] - Factors such as tariffs, interest rate cuts, policies, and semi-annual reports are expected to influence market dynamics, with a need for cautious trading strategies to navigate uncertainties [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is under pressure at the upper level [1] - China's social retail sales growth slowed down in April, industrial added - value increased, fixed - asset investment had a low overall growth rate, and real estate showed a pull - back feature [2] - The zinc trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,455 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,686 dollars/ton, down 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 126,096 lots, an increase of 7,907 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 5,141 lots, a decrease of 872 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 85,560 lots, a decrease of 8,786 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 223,679 lots, a decrease of 4,336 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 230 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 16.15 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1,701 tons, a decrease of 474 tons; LME zinc inventory was 160,800 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - China's social retail sales in April increased by 5.1% year - on - year, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1%, the fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4%, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [2]