贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 2025 年 08 月 26 日 短纤：估值偏高，高位震荡 瓶片：估值偏高，高位震荡 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | ୧486 | ୧୧୦୧ | -20 | PF09-10 | -110 | -108 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2510 | ୧୧୨୧ | 6614 | -18 | PF10-11 | 2 | 30 | -28 | | | 短纤2511 | 6594 | 6584 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and the downstream industry has a strong bottom - fishing sentiment. The market will mainly fluctuate. As it enters late August, the downstream enters the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, with an optimistic market sentiment and strong bottom - fishing willingness. However, the raw material inventory of styrene downstream has reached a medium - to - high level after nearly a month of restocking, so the motivation for continuous restocking during the peak season is insufficient. In the short term, the explicit inventory will be reduced, and the implicit inventory will gradually accumulate, stabilizing market volatility. The market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3][106]. - In terms of absolute price valuation, based on a crude oil price of $65 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. As Brent crude oil rapidly rises to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6,100 - 6,300 yuan/ton [3][106]. - Regarding EB processing fees, considering the high inventory of styrene at ports and the high raw material inventory of downstream, the reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3][106]. - The trading strategy is as follows: (1) Unilateral: mainly fluctuate in the short term and bearish in the medium term; (2) Inter - period: no strategy; (3) Inter - variety: compress EB profit [3][106]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from August to September is 60,000 tons. The overall new device production capacity is weak, and the production pressure is mainly concentrated in August and September, with an increase of 50,000 tons in August and 100,000 tons in September. The spot pressure of major pure benzene producers in August is gradually emerging [3][106]. - Imported pure benzene: The low import volume in August has led to a relatively low visible inventory at ports. The expected import volume in September is maintained at 4 - 4.3 million tons. After October, as overseas maintenance gradually ends, the overall import pressure is still expected to be large [3][106]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Demand - Styrene: There is less maintenance in August, and the devices are operating at a high level. From August to October, styrene will face the pressure of concentrated new device production, with an average monthly increase of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The high - supply pressure has not ended [3][106]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device of Hengyi in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be put into production from August to September. Recently, caprolactam factories have increased their production loads again. However, both CPL and PA6 finished product inventories are at high levels, and factories are actively restocking for the peak season. Raw material inventories of factories in Shandong and South China regions remain at high levels [3][106]. - Phenol: New devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (400,000 tons) and Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) were put into production successively in July and August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. Production remains at a high level [3][106]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and a new device of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian) has been put into production. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. Aniline production is approaching the bottleneck, and the downstream MDI is continuously increasing its load. Leading enterprises still have room for restocking in the short term, which can absorb the incremental production capacity of pure benzene [3][106]. - 3S hard rubber downstream of styrene: There is a strength - to - weakness conversion between EPS/PS and ABS. ABS, which previously maintained a high operating rate, has recently faced continuous high pressure on raw material and finished product inventories, and leading enterprises have started maintenance, resulting in a decline in the overall operating rate. EPS and PS, which previously had a low operating rate, have started to reduce their finished product inventories, and their operating rates are gradually emerging from the off - season [3][106]. 3.3 Pure Benzene Futures Contract - Contract rules: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the quotation unit is yuan/ton, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, the contract months are from January to December, and the trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm from Monday to Friday, as well as other trading hours specified by the exchange [5]. - Margin and price limit: The initial trading margin standard for pure benzene futures contracts is 8%, the price limit is ±7%, and the price limit on the listing day is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5,900 yuan/ton [6]. - Delivery system: The delivery quality standard follows the national standard 545, and the delivery system includes one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against physicals. It combines the factory warehouse and warehouse systems, with factory warehouse delivery as the main method and warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualification is the hazardous chemicals qualification, and group - based delivery is adopted [7]. 3.4 Pure Benzene Industry Chain Production Capacity - In the second half of 2025, the downstream production capacity of pure benzene will gradually be put into operation. From August to September, there will be new production capacity in pure benzene, styrene, caprolactam, etc. [29]. - From 2026 to 2027, styrene production capacity will still increase significantly, with multiple new devices being put into operation [30]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the market declined mainly due to pre - Spring Festival over - stocking and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply will continue to increase, but the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The expected apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [33]. - The profit of aromatics shows an obvious seesaw effect. Attention should be paid to PX - BZ arbitrage [34]. 3.6 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene - Styrene: In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, it has a situation of high inventory, high profit, and high production. The high - growth period of the home appliance industry has ended, and the transmission path is complex [80][82][91]. - ABS: Production capacity continues to expand, and the operating rate, inventory, production, and profit situations have changed [93][94]. - PS: The operating rate, production, profit, and inventory of PS have shown certain trends [95][96][99]. - EPS: The operating rate, production, inventory, and profit of EPS have also changed [100][102][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on July 8, 2025, with night trading available. The initial listing contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the most actively traded and become the main contract [1]. - The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton for the BZ2603 contract is relatively reasonable. The unilateral strategy on the first day should focus on range - bound operations, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [2][31]. - For the inter - period strategy, after listing, it is likely to be in a Contango structure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of physical inter - month reverse arbitrage, such as shorting the near - term pure benzene and buying the BZ2603 contract [2]. - In the cross - variety strategy, attention should be paid to buying PX and shorting BZ. The PX - BZ spread presents a mid - to long - term favorable trend, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Analysis of Key Elements of Futures Contracts - **Contract Details**: The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons/hand, with a minimum price change of 1 yuan/ton. The initial trading margin is 8%, and the daily price limit is 7% (14% on the first listing day). The contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the main contract [1][8]. - **Delivery Standards**: The delivery standard for pure benzene futures is the national standard 545, which is in line with spot market practices. The main delivery areas include Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, with different price adjustments for other regions [2]. - **Delivery Area Price Adjustments**: Fujian and Guangdong have 0 yuan/ton price adjustments; Shandong has - 50 yuan/ton; Tianjin, Hebei, and Anhui have - 120 yuan/ton; and Liaoning has - 200 yuan/ton. On July 7, 2025, 8 designated delivery factories with a total storage capacity of 225,000 tons and 5 designated delivery warehouses were announced [2][14]. - **Other Design Features**: The contract design follows the mature model of listed varieties, with delivery systems including one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against futures. It combines factory and warehouse delivery systems, with factory delivery as the main method. The risk control system includes price limits, position limits, etc. [16][17]. 2. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Locating the Cheapest Deliverable Goods - **Cheapest Deliverable Goods in the Spot Market**: Due to the narrowing quality gap between hydrogenated benzene and petroleum benzene, and considering the price adjustments in different regions, all delivery factory goods can be regarded as the "cheapest deliverable goods" [18]. - **Theoretical Calculation of the Spot Price of the Lowest Deliverable Goods**: Based on factors such as the Brent 2603 contract price, naphtha price, exchange rate, and market expectations, the reasonable price of the BZ2603 contract is around 5800 yuan/ton. If the crude oil price rebounds to 70 - 75 dollars, the upper limit of the pure benzene price is about 6500 yuan/ton; if it drops to 60 dollars, the lower limit is about 5500 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Pattern of Pure Benzene - In the first half of 2025, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was in surplus, but it is expected to gradually improve in the second half. The growth rate of apparent demand in 2023 and 2024 was 17.2% and 12% respectively, and it is expected to be around 8% in 2025. The core reason is that the new installations of downstream industries are decreasing, while the production pressure from upstream ethylene cracking and toluene disproportionation installations remains [28]. - After the listing of pure benzene futures, the willingness to hold near - term positions may weaken, and the long - term price curve is likely to maintain a Contango structure [28]. 4. Investment Outlook for Pure Benzene Futures - **Unilateral Strategy on the First Listing Day**: The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton is relatively reasonable. It is recommended to operate in a range - bound manner, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inter - period Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities. The current spot port inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level of 170,000 tons. The total arbitrage cost is about 80.2 yuan/ton [32]. - **Cross - variety Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on the PX - BZ spread arbitrage. The PX mid - term pattern is significantly better than that of pure benzene, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3][36].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bullish [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is bullish due to the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which drives up international energy prices. However, in the medium - term, the supply in the synthetic rubber industry chain remains high, and the supply growth rate exceeds the demand growth rate, so there is still fundamental pressure [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Futures Static Valuation**: The fundamental static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable, and domestic butadiene prices fluctuate around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. The short - term import volume is neutral. The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to show a pattern of support during fluctuations [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. The supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, and alternative demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, the synthetic rubber may follow the upward trend of oil products. In the medium term, the fundamental pressure is still high. The current main contradiction in the market is the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term for single - side trading; the spread between NR and BR is expected to narrow [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Pricing Stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New Capacity**: In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - side Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate is high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4]. - **Demand - side**: The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output**: The output is affected by the operating rate. Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month [4][40]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is approaching the break - even point, and the cost is mainly determined by butadiene prices [4][42]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Import and Export**: The import and export volumes show certain trends over time, but specific data are not deeply analyzed in the report [45][46]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Inventory**: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory [50][51]. - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rate of tires in Shandong Province are used to reflect the demand for butadiene rubber. The inventory and operating rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires show different trends [54][55].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Analyst Qualification Number: Z0021541 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a rebound, but there is still significant fundamental pressure in the medium term [2][4] Summary by Section 1. Market Judgment - **Futures Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is around 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton. When the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation is 11,100 yuan/ton [4] - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable. Domestic butadiene short - term trading has improved, with prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. Short - term imports have increased. Demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. Inventories at production enterprises have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate at a low level [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. Supply - side开工率 is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. Demand remains high this week, and substitution demand supports the total demand. Inventories are at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, on Thursday, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement increased, and the rubber sector rebounded at a low - valuation level. Butadiene rubber, as a low - valuation variety in the rubber sector and with the requirement of warrant cancellation on June 30, had a large rebound. In the medium term, the main contradiction in the market is the weak demand in the rubber sector. With sufficient supply of natural and synthetic rubber, weak demand drives the fundamentals downward [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound, medium - term short - selling on rallies; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Supply - Side Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages. The total new capacity in 2021 was 580,000 tons, 480,000 tons in 2022, 570,000 tons in 2023, 480,000 tons in 2024, and 860,000 tons are expected in 2025 [9] - **Supply - Side开工率**: The current butadiene industry开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4] - **Supply - Side Imports**: Short - term imports of butadiene have increased [4] - **Demand - Side Capacity of Downstream Products**: The production capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Chuanhua, and other companies have new production capacities coming online. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased significantly in 2024 and 2025 [18][27] - **Demand - Side Operation of Downstream Products**: The operation of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber plants varies, with some running at full capacity, some reducing loads, and some shutting down. The开工率 and profitability of ABS and SBS also show different trends [23][28] - **Inventory**: Butadiene production enterprise inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased [4] 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain fluctuations. The开工率 of production enterprises varies, with some running normally, some reducing loads, and some shutting down [37][38] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost and profit of butadiene rubber have changed over time, and the gross profit margin also shows different trends [39][40][41] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations [42][43] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber are at different levels and show different trends [48][50] - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Side Tires**: The inventory and开工率 of Shandong's all - steel and semi - steel tires show different trends, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [52][53]