Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The pulp market in China is experiencing a mixed scenario with increasing inventory levels and fluctuating prices, indicating cautious short-term outlooks due to weak demand and high stock levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of pulp at major Chinese ports reached 2.11 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from the previous period, representing a 5.1% month-on-month rise and a 21.3% year-on-year increase [1]. - The production of corrugated paper was reported at 499,200 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons, reflecting a decline of 1.77% compared to the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 66.7%, down by 1.2 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Price Trends - According to Galaxy Futures, the pulp futures market is experiencing high volatility, with slight price adjustments in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp prices. The import pulp market remains moderately active, but the increase in port inventory and weak demand are limiting upward price movements, leading to a cautious short-term valuation outlook [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that the current valuation of pulp remains low, with medium to long-term improvement expectations. There is strong market interest in pushing prices up, although the recent price increases have brought futures contracts close to spot prices, potentially limiting short-term gains. However, there are rumors of a tight supply of warehouse receipts for the new year, indicating some risk of short squeezes [3].

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate within the fundamental valuation range. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber face pressure, mainly from high supply, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, increasing inventory pressure in the industry chain. However, the valuation is moderately low, and with many important macro - events, the price is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - The fundamentals of butadiene are gradually under increasing pressure, with high - supply pressure expected to persist in the medium - term, leading to a weak trend. [5] Summary by Directory This Week's Cis - Butadiene Rubber Viewpoints Supply - This week, the impact of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants became apparent, and the load of some private plants decreased slightly. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from last week, a 1.84% MoM decline, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, a 1.37 - percentage - point MoM decrease. Next week, Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to shut down for maintenance, and the specific implementation time of Sichuan Petrochemical is to be determined. There are also maintenance expectations for Zhenhua New Materials, Maoming's cis - butadiene rubber plant, and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth cis - butadiene rubber plant from November to December, so the short - term supply of some spot resources is expected to remain tight. [4] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly this week. Snowfall in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia was earlier than usual, leading to concentrated demand for winter tires. Semi - steel tire enterprises actively arranged production, driving up the capacity utilization rate. The production of all - steel tire enterprises returned to normal levels this week, also driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises will maintain stable production, and all - steel tire enterprises will keep production stable overall. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, so the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. [4] Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a 1.25% MoM increase. This week, the spot market was driven by the expectation of a cooling of trade frictions and the strengthening of natural rubber. While the mainstream supply price rebounded, low - price transactions improved. However, due to more maintenance of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants recently, some sample production enterprises stocked up, resulting in a continuous increase in the inventory level of sample production enterprises and a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises. [4] Valuation - Currently, the static fundamental valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,400 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline due to the increase in butadiene arrivals. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton on the futures market. When the main BR2512 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for holding spot and shorting futures, which will increase the pressure on the upper - limit space of the futures market. The lower valuation limit is expected to be supported by butadiene from the cost side, with the theoretical lower - limit valuation range of the futures market at 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton. The overall static valuation of cis - butadiene rubber is currently moderately low. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Implement a range strategy based on the static fundamental valuation. The upper pressure is at 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton (mainly following the trend of cis - butadiene rubber spot), and the lower support is at 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton (the cost of cis - butadiene rubber anchored by butadiene). - Cross - variety: The spread between NR - BR is at a high valuation, but due to insufficient driving forces, it is expected to fluctuate. [4] This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints Supply - This week (October 17 - 23, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 101,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period, a 0.25% MoM decrease. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 106,000 tons, an increase from this week. Although Sichuan Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance on the 25th, the output of enterprises in the Northeast and Shandong will gradually return to normal, increasing the overall output. [5] Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of cis - butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand for butadiene with little change. [5] Inventory - This week (October 16 - 22, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, a 9.29% MoM decrease. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.83% MoM. There were plant changes during the period, and some downstream plants in East China shut down for maintenance, causing slight fluctuations in butadiene inventory. The inventory at sample ports decreased significantly by 20.13% MoM. The arrival of ships was limited this week, and the tradable volume was low, resulting in a phased reduction in inventory. However, merchants expect sufficient imports in October, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored. [5] Viewpoint - In the short - term, both supply and demand are increasing, and the inventory is neutral, so butadiene is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure, leading to a weak trend. [5] Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end. [8] - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the expansion speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. [10] - The operating rate, production capacity changes, and import - export volume of butadiene are presented through historical data charts and tables, showing the development trend of the butadiene market. [14][16] Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is presented through historical data charts, reflecting the output changes in recent years. [40] - Cost and Profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber in China are presented through historical data charts, showing the cost - profit situation. [42][43][44] - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber are presented through historical data charts, reflecting the import - export trends. [45][46] - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are presented through historical data charts, showing the inventory situation. [49][50][51] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tire: The inventory and operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented through historical data charts, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry. [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is under pressure but the downside space is narrowing. The butadiene market is facing increasing fundamental pressure, with supply expansion outpacing demand growth in the medium to long term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Views Supply - Shandong Weite, Taihang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants continued maintenance. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,000 tons, a 5.12% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.72%, a 3.76 - percentage - point decline [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. Some tire companies increased production of winter tires, but overall shipment was below expectations. Substitute demand remained high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintained a year - on - year high growth rate. As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 2.29% [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation is 11,000 yuan/ton [4]. Viewpoint - In the short term, it is under pressure and the driving force is neutral downward, but the downside space is narrowing. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are under increasing pressure, mainly from high supply. The macro - environment has a limited impact on the commodity market [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, short at high levels within the static valuation range, with an upper pressure of 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and a lower support of 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Views Supply - The weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was estimated to be 100,900 tons, a 2.26% decrease from the previous period. Next week, the output is expected to increase slightly to about 102,000 tons [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the demand for butadiene remained high. In the ABS sector, the demand was expected to be constant due to large inventory pressure. In the SBS sector, the demand remained stable [5]. Inventory - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total domestic butadiene sample inventory decreased by 4.88% week - on - week. Although the short - term inventory decreased, there were still expectations of ship arrivals [5]. Viewpoint - In the short term, supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is neutral, with butadiene oscillating. In the medium to long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the market is expected to enter a weak pattern [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the growth of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. Supply - Side - Operating Rate - Multiple plants were under maintenance, affecting the output. The operating rate data showed fluctuations over the years [14][15]. Net Imports - The net import volume data showed changes over the years, and the import profit was also affected by factors such as market price and import cost [16]. Demand - Side - Capacity of Downstream Products - The capacity of downstream products such as butadiene - styrene rubber and butadiene rubber continued to expand, and the operating and maintenance conditions of related plants varied [20][26]. Demand - Side - ABS and SBS Fundamentals - The ABS polymer's operating rate, net profit, and inventory data showed different trends over the years. The SBS capacity utilization rate also fluctuated [32][33]. Inventory - The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene showed different trends over the years, and there were expectations of future inventory changes [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Output: The output and operating rate data of high - cis butadiene rubber showed changes over the years, and multiple plants had maintenance plans [40][41]. - Cost and Profit: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [42][43][44]. - Import and Export: The import, export, and apparent demand data of butadiene rubber showed changes over the years [45][46][47]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [49][50][51]. Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires - The inventory and operating rate data of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends over the years [54][55].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Short fiber: Valuation is high, with high-level fluctuations [1] - Bottle chips: Valuation is high, with high-level fluctuations [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short fiber and bottle chip industries are currently in a state where valuations are on the high side, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The short - term price trends of both are affected by factors such as international oil prices, raw material futures, and market trading sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2509 decreased by 20, short fiber 2510 decreased by 18, and short fiber 2511 increased by 10 [1] - Spread: PF09 - 10 decreased by 2, PF10 - 11 decreased by 28, and the basis increased by 3 [1] - Position and volume: The持仓 volume decreased by 12,989 to 287,751, and the trading volume decreased by 46,594 to 258,264 [1] - Spot price and sales: The East China spot price decreased by 15 to 6,585, and the sales - to - production ratio decreased by 16% to 45% [1] 3.1.2 Bottle Chips - Futures prices: Bottle chips 2509 decreased by 34, bottle chips 2510 increased by 10, and bottle chips 2511 increased by 12 [1] - Spread: PR09 - 10 decreased by 44, PR10 - 11 decreased by 2, and the main basis decreased by 30 [1] - Position and volume: The持仓 volume increased by 666 to 32,929, and the trading volume increased by 36,185 to 99,275 [1] - Spot price: The East China spot price decreased by 20 to 5,980, and the South China spot price remained unchanged at 6,020 [1] 3.2 Spot News 3.2.1 Short Fiber - International oil prices fluctuated, TA futures weakened, and PF futures followed the decline. The spot price of polyester staple fiber remained stable, with a light trading atmosphere. The average sales - to - production ratio of short - fiber factories was 45% [1] 3.2.2 Bottle Chips - The futures of upstream polyester raw materials fluctuated weakly. The quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories were mostly stable, with partial cuts of 20 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was light [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Short fiber trend intensity: 0 - Bottle chips trend intensity: 0 (referring only to the price fluctuations of the main contract on the day - trading session of the report date) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and the downstream industry has a strong bottom - fishing sentiment. The market will mainly fluctuate. As it enters late August, the downstream enters the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, with an optimistic market sentiment and strong bottom - fishing willingness. However, the raw material inventory of styrene downstream has reached a medium - to - high level after nearly a month of restocking, so the motivation for continuous restocking during the peak season is insufficient. In the short term, the explicit inventory will be reduced, and the implicit inventory will gradually accumulate, stabilizing market volatility. The market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3][106]. - In terms of absolute price valuation, based on a crude oil price of $65 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. As Brent crude oil rapidly rises to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6,100 - 6,300 yuan/ton [3][106]. - Regarding EB processing fees, considering the high inventory of styrene at ports and the high raw material inventory of downstream, the reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3][106]. - The trading strategy is as follows: (1) Unilateral: mainly fluctuate in the short term and bearish in the medium term; (2) Inter - period: no strategy; (3) Inter - variety: compress EB profit [3][106]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from August to September is 60,000 tons. The overall new device production capacity is weak, and the production pressure is mainly concentrated in August and September, with an increase of 50,000 tons in August and 100,000 tons in September. The spot pressure of major pure benzene producers in August is gradually emerging [3][106]. - Imported pure benzene: The low import volume in August has led to a relatively low visible inventory at ports. The expected import volume in September is maintained at 4 - 4.3 million tons. After October, as overseas maintenance gradually ends, the overall import pressure is still expected to be large [3][106]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Demand - Styrene: There is less maintenance in August, and the devices are operating at a high level. From August to October, styrene will face the pressure of concentrated new device production, with an average monthly increase of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The high - supply pressure has not ended [3][106]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device of Hengyi in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be put into production from August to September. Recently, caprolactam factories have increased their production loads again. However, both CPL and PA6 finished product inventories are at high levels, and factories are actively restocking for the peak season. Raw material inventories of factories in Shandong and South China regions remain at high levels [3][106]. - Phenol: New devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (400,000 tons) and Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) were put into production successively in July and August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. Production remains at a high level [3][106]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and a new device of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian) has been put into production. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. Aniline production is approaching the bottleneck, and the downstream MDI is continuously increasing its load. Leading enterprises still have room for restocking in the short term, which can absorb the incremental production capacity of pure benzene [3][106]. - 3S hard rubber downstream of styrene: There is a strength - to - weakness conversion between EPS/PS and ABS. ABS, which previously maintained a high operating rate, has recently faced continuous high pressure on raw material and finished product inventories, and leading enterprises have started maintenance, resulting in a decline in the overall operating rate. EPS and PS, which previously had a low operating rate, have started to reduce their finished product inventories, and their operating rates are gradually emerging from the off - season [3][106]. 3.3 Pure Benzene Futures Contract - Contract rules: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the quotation unit is yuan/ton, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, the contract months are from January to December, and the trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm from Monday to Friday, as well as other trading hours specified by the exchange [5]. - Margin and price limit: The initial trading margin standard for pure benzene futures contracts is 8%, the price limit is ±7%, and the price limit on the listing day is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5,900 yuan/ton [6]. - Delivery system: The delivery quality standard follows the national standard 545, and the delivery system includes one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against physicals. It combines the factory warehouse and warehouse systems, with factory warehouse delivery as the main method and warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualification is the hazardous chemicals qualification, and group - based delivery is adopted [7]. 3.4 Pure Benzene Industry Chain Production Capacity - In the second half of 2025, the downstream production capacity of pure benzene will gradually be put into operation. From August to September, there will be new production capacity in pure benzene, styrene, caprolactam, etc. [29]. - From 2026 to 2027, styrene production capacity will still increase significantly, with multiple new devices being put into operation [30]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the market declined mainly due to pre - Spring Festival over - stocking and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply will continue to increase, but the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The expected apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [33]. - The profit of aromatics shows an obvious seesaw effect. Attention should be paid to PX - BZ arbitrage [34]. 3.6 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene - Styrene: In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, it has a situation of high inventory, high profit, and high production. The high - growth period of the home appliance industry has ended, and the transmission path is complex [80][82][91]. - ABS: Production capacity continues to expand, and the operating rate, inventory, production, and profit situations have changed [93][94]. - PS: The operating rate, production, profit, and inventory of PS have shown certain trends [95][96][99]. - EPS: The operating rate, production, inventory, and profit of EPS have also changed [100][102][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on July 8, 2025, with night trading available. The initial listing contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the most actively traded and become the main contract [1]. - The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton for the BZ2603 contract is relatively reasonable. The unilateral strategy on the first day should focus on range - bound operations, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [2][31]. - For the inter - period strategy, after listing, it is likely to be in a Contango structure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of physical inter - month reverse arbitrage, such as shorting the near - term pure benzene and buying the BZ2603 contract [2]. - In the cross - variety strategy, attention should be paid to buying PX and shorting BZ. The PX - BZ spread presents a mid - to long - term favorable trend, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Analysis of Key Elements of Futures Contracts - **Contract Details**: The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons/hand, with a minimum price change of 1 yuan/ton. The initial trading margin is 8%, and the daily price limit is 7% (14% on the first listing day). The contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the main contract [1][8]. - **Delivery Standards**: The delivery standard for pure benzene futures is the national standard 545, which is in line with spot market practices. The main delivery areas include Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, with different price adjustments for other regions [2]. - **Delivery Area Price Adjustments**: Fujian and Guangdong have 0 yuan/ton price adjustments; Shandong has - 50 yuan/ton; Tianjin, Hebei, and Anhui have - 120 yuan/ton; and Liaoning has - 200 yuan/ton. On July 7, 2025, 8 designated delivery factories with a total storage capacity of 225,000 tons and 5 designated delivery warehouses were announced [2][14]. - **Other Design Features**: The contract design follows the mature model of listed varieties, with delivery systems including one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against futures. It combines factory and warehouse delivery systems, with factory delivery as the main method. The risk control system includes price limits, position limits, etc. [16][17]. 2. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Locating the Cheapest Deliverable Goods - **Cheapest Deliverable Goods in the Spot Market**: Due to the narrowing quality gap between hydrogenated benzene and petroleum benzene, and considering the price adjustments in different regions, all delivery factory goods can be regarded as the "cheapest deliverable goods" [18]. - **Theoretical Calculation of the Spot Price of the Lowest Deliverable Goods**: Based on factors such as the Brent 2603 contract price, naphtha price, exchange rate, and market expectations, the reasonable price of the BZ2603 contract is around 5800 yuan/ton. If the crude oil price rebounds to 70 - 75 dollars, the upper limit of the pure benzene price is about 6500 yuan/ton; if it drops to 60 dollars, the lower limit is about 5500 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Pattern of Pure Benzene - In the first half of 2025, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was in surplus, but it is expected to gradually improve in the second half. The growth rate of apparent demand in 2023 and 2024 was 17.2% and 12% respectively, and it is expected to be around 8% in 2025. The core reason is that the new installations of downstream industries are decreasing, while the production pressure from upstream ethylene cracking and toluene disproportionation installations remains [28]. - After the listing of pure benzene futures, the willingness to hold near - term positions may weaken, and the long - term price curve is likely to maintain a Contango structure [28]. 4. Investment Outlook for Pure Benzene Futures - **Unilateral Strategy on the First Listing Day**: The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton is relatively reasonable. It is recommended to operate in a range - bound manner, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inter - period Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities. The current spot port inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level of 170,000 tons. The total arbitrage cost is about 80.2 yuan/ton [32]. - **Cross - variety Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on the PX - BZ spread arbitrage. The PX mid - term pattern is significantly better than that of pure benzene, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3][36].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bullish [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is bullish due to the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which drives up international energy prices. However, in the medium - term, the supply in the synthetic rubber industry chain remains high, and the supply growth rate exceeds the demand growth rate, so there is still fundamental pressure [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Futures Static Valuation**: The fundamental static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable, and domestic butadiene prices fluctuate around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. The short - term import volume is neutral. The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to show a pattern of support during fluctuations [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. The supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, and alternative demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, the synthetic rubber may follow the upward trend of oil products. In the medium term, the fundamental pressure is still high. The current main contradiction in the market is the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term for single - side trading; the spread between NR and BR is expected to narrow [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Pricing Stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New Capacity**: In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - side Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate is high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4]. - **Demand - side**: The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output**: The output is affected by the operating rate. Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month [4][40]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is approaching the break - even point, and the cost is mainly determined by butadiene prices [4][42]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Import and Export**: The import and export volumes show certain trends over time, but specific data are not deeply analyzed in the report [45][46]. - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Inventory**: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory [50][51]. - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rate of tires in Shandong Province are used to reflect the demand for butadiene rubber. The inventory and operating rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires show different trends [54][55].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Analyst Qualification Number: Z0021541 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a rebound, but there is still significant fundamental pressure in the medium term [2][4] Summary by Section 1. Market Judgment - **Futures Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is around 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton. When the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation is 11,100 yuan/ton [4] - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices are stable. Domestic butadiene short - term trading has improved, with prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. Short - term imports have increased. Demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. Inventories at production enterprises have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate at a low level [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. Supply - side开工率 is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. Demand remains high this week, and substitution demand supports the total demand. Inventories are at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, on Thursday, due to the China - US leaders' call, the expectation of economic improvement increased, and the rubber sector rebounded at a low - valuation level. Butadiene rubber, as a low - valuation variety in the rubber sector and with the requirement of warrant cancellation on June 30, had a large rebound. In the medium term, the main contradiction in the market is the weak demand in the rubber sector. With sufficient supply of natural and synthetic rubber, weak demand drives the fundamentals downward [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound, medium - term short - selling on rallies; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Supply - Side Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages. The total new capacity in 2021 was 580,000 tons, 480,000 tons in 2022, 570,000 tons in 2023, 480,000 tons in 2024, and 860,000 tons are expected in 2025 [9] - **Supply - Side开工率**: The current butadiene industry开工率 is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4] - **Supply - Side Imports**: Short - term imports of butadiene have increased [4] - **Demand - Side Capacity of Downstream Products**: The production capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding. For example, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Chuanhua, and other companies have new production capacities coming online. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased significantly in 2024 and 2025 [18][27] - **Demand - Side Operation of Downstream Products**: The operation of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber plants varies, with some running at full capacity, some reducing loads, and some shutting down. The开工率 and profitability of ABS and SBS also show different trends [23][28] - **Inventory**: Butadiene production enterprise inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have decreased [4] 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain fluctuations. The开工率 of production enterprises varies, with some running normally, some reducing loads, and some shutting down [37][38] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost and profit of butadiene rubber have changed over time, and the gross profit margin also shows different trends [39][40][41] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations [42][43] - **Butadiene Rubber Supply - Side Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber are at different levels and show different trends [48][50] - **Butadiene Rubber Demand - Side Tires**: The inventory and开工率 of Shandong's all - steel and semi - steel tires show different trends, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [52][53]