Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Argentina's temporary cancellation of agricultural export taxes will lead to a significant short - term increase in the export of soybean and related products, likely alleviating the previously worried tight supply situation in the Chinese market in Q1 2026 [7][10] - If China does not purchase US soybeans, the US soybean export demand will be impacted, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure [9][10] - It is advisable to be cautious about the subsequent basis pressure of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal, and domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil [10] - The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will squeeze the US soybean export market, and the US soybean price may test a short - term low [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Argentina's Reason for Temporary Cancellation of Agricultural Product Export Taxes - After the political setback of President Milei's party in the local elections in Buenos Aires Province in early September, the Argentine peso exchange rate plummeted. To attract dollars and increase the supply of dollars in the domestic market to ease the depreciation pressure of the peso, the government decided to cancel the export tax on soybeans and their products from September 22 to October 31 [1] Assessment of China's Soybean Supply Situation - As of the week of September 10, 2025, Argentina's 24/25 annual soybean cumulative sales volume was 31.89 million tons, accounting for 62.6% of the expected output of 50.9 million tons, with 19.01 million tons unsold. The short - term supply of soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal in the international market is expected to increase [3] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean crushing volume was 23.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (1.5%). Based on the estimated monthly crushing volume of 3.8 million tons from September to December, the remaining exportable volume is about 3.8 million tons [3] - The USDA estimates Brazil's 24/25 annual soybean output at 169 million tons. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean crushing volume decreased by 1.45 million tons (4.5%) year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 1.81 million tons (2.4%) year - on - year. The remaining exportable volume is about 20 million tons [4] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean export volume was 3.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons (5.5%). After the cancellation of the export tax, the total soybean export volume is expected to increase. It is assumed that the export volume will reach 3.8 million tons in October, and about 90% will be exported to China [4] - Considering the 2 - month shipping time from Brazil and Argentina to China, the monthly average arrival volume in Q4 2025 is expected to be 8.5 - 9 million tons, and in Q1 2026, it is expected to be 3.5 - 4 million tons. Even without purchasing US soybeans, China's soybean supply gap in Q1 2026 is likely to disappear [7] China's Non - Purchase of New US Soybean Crops - The USDA estimates the US 25/26 annual soybean output at 117 million tons, with an expected export volume of 45.85 million tons (39% of the output). Historically, nearly half of US soybean exports went to China. As of September 11, China's purchase volume of US soybeans was zero. If China does not purchase, the US soybean export demand will be affected, and the inventory pressure will increase, leading to a short - term downward pressure on prices [9]

Report Title - The daily report of the oil and fat, oilseed industry [1] Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: The rise in US soybean oil prices has led to an increase in international palm oil prices, widening the import inversion of the domestic palm oil market. Weak import profits have curbed palm oil purchases, resulting in a continued weak supply outlook. Low port inventories support near - term prices. The large price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has squeezed palm oil consumption, with monthly demand remaining at a rigid level of 200,000 tons. Warmer weather does not boost blended oil demand due to the price difference. The expected increase in production in palm - growing regions is likely to suppress far - term prices [3]. - Soybean oil: In April, previously purchased soybeans are arriving at ports, increasing the pressure on the supply side and expected oil mill crushing rates. With no increase in consumption to absorb the supply, soybean oil inventories are expected to enter an accumulation cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the price difference between the two may narrow in the far - term to compete for market share [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Far - term prices are supported by reduced imports of rapeseed and policy premiums. Currently, the supply of rapeseed oil is at a peak as previously purchased rapeseed has arrived at ports, and coastal rapeseed inventories are decreasing. As new supply becomes limited, the rate of inventory reduction is expected to accelerate. Policy premiums have kept the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil at a level that discourages rapeseed oil consumption, which remains at a rigid level. High inventories suppress near - term prices, while policy uncertainties support far - term prices [3]. Oilseeds - After the release of the planting area report, the futures market declined due to the exhaustion of positive factors. For imported soybeans, recent price drops in both domestic and international markets have led to a decrease in Brazilian soybean premiums. Purchase contracts are mainly for Brazilian soybeans with potential crushing profits in the far - term. The arrival of soybeans is entering a seasonally high - pressure period, with 8.5 million tons expected in April and 10.5 million tons in May. For domestic soybean meal, some northern regions will remain shut down in the first half of April, with a strong price - support mentality in different regions, while the supply in the south is relatively loose. After the arrival of soybeans, the supply is expected to be well - connected. On the demand side, with sufficient future supply, buyers are cautious about long - term stocking, mainly fulfilling previous contracts and purchasing as needed. For rapeseed meal, the supply pressure in the first half of the year is lower than that of soybean meal. Current moderately high inventories may limit price increases. As the downstream aquaculture industry enters the peak stocking season in the second quarter, the rate of inventory reduction is expected to accelerate. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to remain small, but due to weak demand, it is difficult to form an independent or inverted price trend in the spot market [14][16]. Price and Spread Information Fats and Oils - **Inter - monthly and inter - variety spreads**: P 1 - 5 is - 760 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; P 5 - 9 is 636 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; P 9 - 1 is 124 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 652 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; Y - P 05 is - 1318 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; Y - P 09 is - 700 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; Y 1 - 5 is - 94 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; Y 5 - 9 is 18 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Y 9 - 1 is 76 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Y/M 01 is 2.6501, down 0.03%; Y/M 05 is 2.8199, up 0.14%; Y/M 09 is 2.6711, down 0.07%; OI 1 - 5 is - 163 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; OI 5 - 9 is - 49 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; OI 9 - 1 is 212 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; OI/RM 01 is 3.9672, down 0.06%; OI/RM 05 is 3.7092, up 0.47%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5319, up 0.27% [4][6]. - **Palm oil spot and futures prices**: Palm oil 01 is 8,544 yuan/ton, up 1.74%; Palm oil 05 is 9,304 yuan/ton, up 1.73%; Palm oil 09 is 8,668 yuan/ton, up 1.95%; BMD palm oil futures is 4,520 ringgit/ton, up 2.29%; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9,640 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis in Guangzhou is 552 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; POGO is 549.023 dollars/ton, down 1.168 dollars; the price difference between international soybean oil and palm oil is - 155.14 dollars/ton, up 2.12 dollars [8]. - **Soybean oil spot and futures prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 7,892 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; Soybean oil 05 is 7,986 yuan/ton, up 1%; Soybean oil 09 is 7,968 yuan/ton, up 1.08%; CBOT soybean oil futures is 47.42 cents/pound, up 5.71%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8,210 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the basis in Shandong is 224 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; BOHO (weekly) is 69.3987 dollars/barrel, down 5.7085 dollars; the price difference between domestic first - grade soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is - 1,280 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [11]. Oilseeds - **Futures prices**: Bean meal 01 is 2,978 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan (0.95%); Bean meal 05 is 2,832 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan (1%); Bean meal 09 is 2,983 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan (1.08%); Rapeseed meal 01 is 2,345 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (1.56%); Rapeseed meal 05 is 2,552 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan (1.27%); Rapeseed meal 09 is 2,694 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (1.09%); CBOT soybeans is 1,032.75 cents/bushel, unchanged; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.2829, up 0.0224 (0.31%) [17]. - **Price differences between bean meal and rapeseed meal**: M01 - 05 is 146 yuan/ton, unchanged; M05 - 09 is - 151 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; M09 - 01 is 5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; RM01 - 05 is - 207 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; RM05 - 09 is - 142 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; RM09 - 01 is 349 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the spot price of bean meal in Rizhao is 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of bean meal in Rizhao is 248 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2,571 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 51 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; the spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 509 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [18].