| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆陆续展开收购,目前东北产区毛粮价格集中在1.85元/斤,刚上市的大豆主要以低蛋白为主。我 们上周东北产地调研了解的结果是市场对今年国产大豆产量预期跟去年比较是持平或微增，主要是得益于面积 增长。国产大豆短期表现好于进口大豆,国产和进口大豆价差走强。美豆表现偏弱，目前处于收获李节，面临 季节性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Argentina's temporary cancellation of agricultural export taxes will lead to a significant short - term increase in the export of soybean and related products, likely alleviating the previously worried tight supply situation in the Chinese market in Q1 2026 [7][10] - If China does not purchase US soybeans, the US soybean export demand will be impacted, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure [9][10] - It is advisable to be cautious about the subsequent basis pressure of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal, and domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil [10] - The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will squeeze the US soybean export market, and the US soybean price may test a short - term low [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Argentina's Reason for Temporary Cancellation of Agricultural Product Export Taxes - After the political setback of President Milei's party in the local elections in Buenos Aires Province in early September, the Argentine peso exchange rate plummeted. To attract dollars and increase the supply of dollars in the domestic market to ease the depreciation pressure of the peso, the government decided to cancel the export tax on soybeans and their products from September 22 to October 31 [1] Assessment of China's Soybean Supply Situation - As of the week of September 10, 2025, Argentina's 24/25 annual soybean cumulative sales volume was 31.89 million tons, accounting for 62.6% of the expected output of 50.9 million tons, with 19.01 million tons unsold. The short - term supply of soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal in the international market is expected to increase [3] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean crushing volume was 23.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (1.5%). Based on the estimated monthly crushing volume of 3.8 million tons from September to December, the remaining exportable volume is about 3.8 million tons [3] - The USDA estimates Brazil's 24/25 annual soybean output at 169 million tons. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean crushing volume decreased by 1.45 million tons (4.5%) year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 1.81 million tons (2.4%) year - on - year. The remaining exportable volume is about 20 million tons [4] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean export volume was 3.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons (5.5%). After the cancellation of the export tax, the total soybean export volume is expected to increase. It is assumed that the export volume will reach 3.8 million tons in October, and about 90% will be exported to China [4] - Considering the 2 - month shipping time from Brazil and Argentina to China, the monthly average arrival volume in Q4 2025 is expected to be 8.5 - 9 million tons, and in Q1 2026, it is expected to be 3.5 - 4 million tons. Even without purchasing US soybeans, China's soybean supply gap in Q1 2026 is likely to disappear [7] China's Non - Purchase of New US Soybean Crops - The USDA estimates the US 25/26 annual soybean output at 117 million tons, with an expected export volume of 45.85 million tons (39% of the output). Historically, nearly half of US soybean exports went to China. As of September 11, China's purchase volume of US soybeans was zero. If China does not purchase, the US soybean export demand will be affected, and the inventory pressure will increase, leading to a short - term downward pressure on prices [9]

相关链接 期货热点追踪 洪涝未歇，蝗灾又起，乌克兰粮仓正遭遇"水火夹击"，市场已将2025年乌克兰油菜籽和小麦的产量预估 大幅下调，供应是否已拉响警报？ ...