农产品日报 | 2026-01-21 供应压力延续，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 豆粕库存出现明显下滑，但仍维持百万吨以上，高于去年同期，叠加近期进口大豆拍卖情况良好，使得国内近期 供应较为宽松。综合来看，巴西大豆丰产预期进一步加巩固，未来供应压力延续，仍需重点关注南美大豆收获情 况以及美豆出口情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美天气情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2603合约2280元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.04%；玉米淀粉2603合约2550元/吨，较 前日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.20%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C03+65，较前日变动+1；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2630元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CS03+80，较前 日变动+15。 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2736元/吨，较前日变动+9元/吨，幅度+0.33%；菜粕2605合约2229元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.36%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3160元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+42 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing Xinfadi Market, a key supplier for the capital, experienced high activity on New Year's Day, indicating strong demand for agricultural products despite the recent holiday peak [1][4] - The market serves as a distribution hub for vegetables from across China, with significant contributions from both southern and northern regions [1][4] Market Activity - On New Year's Day, the market was bustling with vehicles from various provinces, showcasing a diverse range of agricultural products [1] - Local distributors reported strong sales, with specific mention of the sale of three trucks of cauliflower on the holiday [3][4] Supply Chain Efficiency - The logistics for transporting cauliflower from Kunming to Beijing is efficient, taking only four days for delivery [4] - The market has a well-defined structure for different types of vegetables, ensuring organized distribution [4] Sales Performance - Despite the peak holiday season having passed, sales remained robust, with significant volumes of long eggplants being sold [4][5] - The market's promotional department noted that vegetable growth is healthy, with stable prices and a diverse supply [5] Consumer Trends - There is an increasing demand for high-quality produce, with consumers showing stronger preferences for taste and quality compared to previous years [5] - The market anticipates a peak in procurement next month, with a projected increase of about 5% in total supply due to holiday effects, although this is less pronounced than the growth seen during the Spring Festival [5]

Group 1: Oilseeds and Oils - Domestic oilseeds and oils are experiencing strong performance driven by domestic supply disruptions, with soybean customs inspection times extended to over 20 days, facilitating faster domestic inventory reduction [2][11] - The state reserve soybean auction had a transaction rate of over 70%, indicating good sales performance, which has strengthened soybean meal basis and market prices [2][11] - Concerns over future supply arose due to issues with canola oil customs clearance, although the overall trend for canola oil supply remains unaffected [2][11] Group 2: International Market Dynamics - China continues to purchase U.S. soybeans, with the USDA reporting large sales, although there is still a significant gap in scale and targets [3][12] - Brazil's soybean planting is complete, with favorable weather conditions supporting crop growth, leading to maintained expectations of high yields [3][12] - The palm oil market is under pressure with Malaysian palm oil inventories rising to over 2.8 million tons, and export data indicating a decrease in exports and an increase in production [3][12] Group 3: Egg Market - Short-term bullish factors for eggs are limited, with futures prices experiencing a pullback due to insufficient supply-side improvements [5][14] - The average price of brown-shelled eggs in China is 3.09 yuan per jin, reflecting a slight increase, but overall price increases are limited due to ample supply [5][14] - The market is expected to see a slow decline in production capacity, with ongoing monitoring of breeding and culling intentions impacting future supply [5][15] Group 4: Corn Market - The corn market is showing a near-term strong and long-term weak price trend, with U.S. corn export forecasts being adjusted positively by the USDA [6][16] - Domestic corn prices have increased to an average of 2,321 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan from the previous week, although some regional prices have seen slight declines [6][17] - The market is experiencing a dynamic balance between supply and demand, with feed enterprises maintaining a cautious purchasing stance due to high inventory levels [6][17] Group 5: Pork Market - The pork market is under pressure with near-month contracts hitting new lows, while long-term contracts show a potential for upward movement due to disease and policy factors [8][18] - The average price of live pigs in China is 11.19 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease from the previous week and a significant year-on-year decline [8][18] - The market is characterized by a supply-demand tug-of-war, with expectations of weak price trends in the near term [8][18]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal inventory has increased, while the EU's soybean meal imports have decreased compared to the previous year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high despite a slight downward adjustment in forecasts. Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of the end of week 46 in 2025, domestic soybean meal inventory stands at 999,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, reflecting a 3.05% week-on-week rise [1] - The European Commission reported that soybean meal imports for the 2025/26 season reached 6.74 million tons, down from 7.37 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) forecasts a soybean production of 177.7 million tons in 2026, despite a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the October forecast, marking a historical record [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - Zhengxin Futures noted that U.S. soybean prices have fluctuated, with domestic soybean procurement for the near term nearly complete and long-term procurement gradually advancing. The short-term supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, leading to ample domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories [2] - Guodu Futures highlighted that the USDA's November supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53 bushels per acre, down from 53.5 bushels per acre in September, aligning with market expectations. Domestic soybean imports have consistently exceeded historical levels since May, resulting in a high inventory [3] - The report also indicated that weather conditions in the new season's South American soybean regions are stable, putting pressure on both domestic and international prices, although cost support remains, suggesting a continuation of wide-ranging fluctuations in the market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the bean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the overall supply is ample, exerting pressure on prices. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans is sufficient, and the inventories of soybeans and bean meal remain at relatively high levels. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be closely monitored. For corn, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2549 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.47%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 2, a change of + 5 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 68, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 58, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, an increase of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 181, a change of - 2 from the previous day. - Market Information: On November 4th, the rural economic department of Paraná state reported that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season in Paraná state had reached 79% of the expected area, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous week. The soybean growth was generally good, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good condition, 6% in medium condition, and 1% in poor condition [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The overall supply is ample, and there is pressure on the price upside. In China, the supply of soybeans and bean meal is also relatively loose. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be focused on [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2154 yuan/ton, an increase of + 20 yuan/ton (+ 0.94%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2469 yuan/ton, an increase of + 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 1, a change of - 30 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 81, a change of - 18 from the previous day. - Market Information: The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that the grain output in Ukraine this year is expected to be 59 million tons, higher than last year's 56 million tons. The wheat and barley harvests are completed, with yields the same as last year. The wheat output is between 22 million and 22.5 million tons, and the barley output is 5.3 million tons. The Russian government plans to continue implementing the grain export quota system in 2026, with an expected scale of 20 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean (Imported): Not rated - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of different agricultural products varies, and the market performance also shows different trends. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of various factors such as production, inventory, policies, and seasons on the market [2][3][5]. - For different agricultural products, different investment strategies are recommended, including short - term tracking, long - term cautious optimism, and pre - holiday waiting and seeing [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are currently strong, with low - protein soybeans on the market. The expected output of domestic soybeans is flat or slightly increased compared to last year due to increased planting area. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has widened. The price of US soybeans is weak due to seasonal harvest pressure and uncertain export prospects. The supply of domestic soybeans may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Focus on the performance of domestic soybeans after listing and the new Brazilian crop in the second quarter of next year [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After Argentina's export policy was introduced, the prices of related products on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell sharply, with a weekly decline of 2.98%. After reaching the sales limit of $7 billion, Argentina cancelled the soybean tax - exemption policy. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has risen to 125 tons. The supply of soybeans from July to November is sufficient, and the annual output of domestic soybeans is expected to reach 21 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and the possible supply gap will occur in the first quarter of next year. The short - term trend of soybean meal is affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are under seasonal harvest pressure, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. In the medium term, soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and they face macro - risk tests [3]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures market shows a pattern of weak oil and strong meal, but the overall fluctuation is small. The supply of rapeseed is sufficient, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is limited due to low price - performance ratio and the approaching off - season of aquatic feed. The demand for rapeseed oil increases in autumn and winter, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [5]. Corn - The output of new - season corn is expected to increase due to favorable weather conditions. The opening price of new - season corn has dropped. Shandong's spot price is weak, and the supply is increasing. Corn is expected to fluctuate before and after the opening of new - season grain, and the Dalian corn futures are expected to remain weak at the bottom [6]. Live Hogs - The price of live hog futures has dropped significantly, and the valuation centers of near - and far - month contracts have shifted down. The supply of live hogs is abundant, and the spot price has reached a new low. The government has carried out small - scale frozen - pork purchases. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is high, and the industry is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the process of capacity reduction and the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [7]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced their positions. The spot price has declined after reaching a high point on September 17. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will weaken. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of production capacity is expected to occur in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position layouts for the far - month contracts in the first half of next year and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Argentina's temporary cancellation of agricultural export taxes will lead to a significant short - term increase in the export of soybean and related products, likely alleviating the previously worried tight supply situation in the Chinese market in Q1 2026 [7][10] - If China does not purchase US soybeans, the US soybean export demand will be impacted, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure [9][10] - It is advisable to be cautious about the subsequent basis pressure of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal, and domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, with palm oil stronger than soybean oil [10] - The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will squeeze the US soybean export market, and the US soybean price may test a short - term low [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Argentina's Reason for Temporary Cancellation of Agricultural Product Export Taxes - After the political setback of President Milei's party in the local elections in Buenos Aires Province in early September, the Argentine peso exchange rate plummeted. To attract dollars and increase the supply of dollars in the domestic market to ease the depreciation pressure of the peso, the government decided to cancel the export tax on soybeans and their products from September 22 to October 31 [1] Assessment of China's Soybean Supply Situation - As of the week of September 10, 2025, Argentina's 24/25 annual soybean cumulative sales volume was 31.89 million tons, accounting for 62.6% of the expected output of 50.9 million tons, with 19.01 million tons unsold. The short - term supply of soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal in the international market is expected to increase [3] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean crushing volume was 23.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (1.5%). Based on the estimated monthly crushing volume of 3.8 million tons from September to December, the remaining exportable volume is about 3.8 million tons [3] - The USDA estimates Brazil's 24/25 annual soybean output at 169 million tons. From January to July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean crushing volume decreased by 1.45 million tons (4.5%) year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 1.81 million tons (2.4%) year - on - year. The remaining exportable volume is about 20 million tons [4] - From January to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative soybean export volume was 3.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons (5.5%). After the cancellation of the export tax, the total soybean export volume is expected to increase. It is assumed that the export volume will reach 3.8 million tons in October, and about 90% will be exported to China [4] - Considering the 2 - month shipping time from Brazil and Argentina to China, the monthly average arrival volume in Q4 2025 is expected to be 8.5 - 9 million tons, and in Q1 2026, it is expected to be 3.5 - 4 million tons. Even without purchasing US soybeans, China's soybean supply gap in Q1 2026 is likely to disappear [7] China's Non - Purchase of New US Soybean Crops - The USDA estimates the US 25/26 annual soybean output at 117 million tons, with an expected export volume of 45.85 million tons (39% of the output). Historically, nearly half of US soybean exports went to China. As of September 11, China's purchase volume of US soybeans was zero. If China does not purchase, the US soybean export demand will be affected, and the inventory pressure will increase, leading to a short - term downward pressure on prices [9]

Group 1 - The core issue is the dual threat of flooding and locust plagues impacting Ukraine's grain storage, leading to significant downward revisions in the projected yields of rapeseed and wheat for 2025 [1] - The market is increasingly concerned about supply shortages due to these adverse conditions, raising alarms about potential food security issues [1]