目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 棕榈油高频数据较差施压油脂 油脂周报 2025/11/22 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 市场综述：本周三大油脂走势较弱，棕榈油仍然被外资空配，其他油脂多单持仓也下降。棕榈油产地高频数据一般，SPPOMA数据显示，11月 1日至15日，马来西亚棕榈油单产月环比增加1.82%，出油率增加0.43%，产量增长4.09%，产量在去库季节仍在增长，高频出口则显示前20日 下降14.1%-20.5%，意味着下游需求一般。菜油方面因沿海油厂多数缺籽停机，菜油库存持续去化，走势相对较强，不过俄罗斯菜油及澳洲 菜籽填补一定空缺，上方空间也承压。豆油则跟随震荡为主。 国际油脂：按往年正常水平产量及国际需求来看，来年一季度棕榈油将会进入快速去库节奏。不过今年马来西亚、印尼产量均同比偏大，一 季度是油脂需求淡季，若此时东南亚棕榈油产量仍维持高位，则预期中的去库可能会反转，因此当前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic driving force for edible oils is insufficient, and future price movements depend on positive factors from the origin. In the short - term, the market will trade within a range. Pay attention to China - US and China - Canada relations, the de - stocking progress of palm oil origins, and the implementation of the B40 plan. Consider opportunities such as the positive spread trading of rapeseed oil 1 - 5 contracts and buying palm oil 01 contracts on dips [1]. - In the near - term, there is still pressure on domestic edible oils. The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and there is a risk of over - inventory for soybean oil. Rapeseed oil has high inventory, and palm oil supply may increase. The demand for edible oils is mainly for essential needs, but the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption [3][5]. - In the long - term, the edible oil market will focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation policy, the supply - demand balance of palm oil origins, the progress of Indonesia's B40 and B50 policies, and China - US and China - Canada relations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In the palm oil market, Malaysia entered the production - reduction season in September, while Indonesia's production is normal. The B40 plan in Indonesia may speed up at the end of the year. For soybean oil, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast, and global soybean supply is abundant. The purchase of Argentine soybeans can make up for part of the US soybean gap, delaying the tight supply of domestic soybean oil. For rapeseed oil, Canada's new - season output is optimistic, but the supply may still be tight due to the uncertainty of China - Canada relations and limited substitution from Australian rapeseed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9000 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Consider the opportunity of rebound after over - decline. Technically, consider going long on P2601 at low levels [13]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For calendar spread strategies, consider positive spread trading for P1 - 5 at low levels (190, 200). For hedging arbitrage strategies, expect the rapeseed - soybean spread to widen and the soybean - palm spread to narrow [13]. 3.1.3 Industry Client Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8400, 9700 - 10300, and 8900 - 9500 respectively [15]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high inventory can short Y2601 to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy Y2601 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about over - inventory can short Y2601 [15]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties [18][19][20][21]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 increased by 7.3% month - on - month. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil mills decreased for the second consecutive week. The operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills decreased during the holiday [22][23]. - **Negative Information**: On September 26, the commercial inventory of three major edible oils in China was 240 million tons, still at a high level in recent years. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Palm oil transactions improved slightly, soybean oil transactions decreased, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 29 domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and progress on the US small - refinery exemption re - allocation decision [30]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, the edible oil market oscillated and sorted. Rapeseed oil was relatively strong, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated. Some speculative funds left the market cautiously. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and the downward space is limited, expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of palm oil after over - decline [31]. - **Capital Trends**: Key profitable positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. Palm oil prices are at a medium - low level historically, with decreasing positions and a weak short - term trend. Soybean oil prices are declining with decreasing positions and increasing negative trend. Rapeseed oil prices are rising, with significant position fluctuations and cautious market sentiment [31]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The near - month term structure of edible oils is steeper. The OI1 - 5 positive spread continues to strengthen due to the expected tight supply of rapeseed oil at the end of this year and in the first quarter of next year. P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 positive spreads are mainly consolidating [33]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the basis of major edible oil contracts was weak. High domestic inventory and weak demand led to a continued weak basis [51]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads strengthened. Rapeseed oil supply in the fourth quarter is not optimistic, while the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil has eased [55]. - **Foreign Market**: The domestic market followed the foreign market to oscillate and then weaken. Uncertainties in China - US and China - Canada relations and the closure of Argentine exports limited further downward movement. CBOT soybean oil managed funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users increased their positions slightly [57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread is slightly lower but still at a high level, and the BOHO spread is at a low level. The overall cost of bio - fuel production remains high due to the low - price competition of Argentine soybean oil [65]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The import cost has slightly decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed slightly. However, due to weak domestic demand and inventory pressure, the probability of a significant increase in purchasing is low [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to drought in the first quarter and floods in September. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decline [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The procurement intention of traders is low. The monthly purchase volume in September and October is about 200,000 tons. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to decline further. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of soybeans in September and October is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, the soybean crushing volume may decrease in December, and the supply of soybean oil may be tight if US soybean purchases are difficult [72][73]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. High inventory will be gradually reduced in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not improve, supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of three major edible oils is large, and demand is weak. The Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption, but overall terminal demand is still weak compared to last year [75].