目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 棕榈油高频数据较差施压油脂 油脂周报 2025/11/22 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 市场综述：本周三大油脂走势较弱，棕榈油仍然被外资空配，其他油脂多单持仓也下降。棕榈油产地高频数据一般，SPPOMA数据显示，11月 1日至15日，马来西亚棕榈油单产月环比增加1.82%，出油率增加0.43%，产量增长4.09%，产量在去库季节仍在增长，高频出口则显示前20日 下降14.1%-20.5%，意味着下游需求一般。菜油方面因沿海油厂多数缺籽停机，菜油库存持续去化，走势相对较强，不过俄罗斯菜油及澳洲 菜籽填补一定空缺，上方空间也承压。豆油则跟随震荡为主。 国际油脂：按往年正常水平产量及国际需求来看，来年一季度棕榈油将会进入快速去库节奏。不过今年马来西亚、印尼产量均同比偏大，一 季度是油脂需求淡季，若此时东南亚棕榈油产量仍维持高位，则预期中的去库可能会反转，因此当前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest; soybean oil fluctuates between cost support and inventory pressure; rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8770, 8610, and 8550 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8310, 8380, and 8480 respectively, all down 40 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9750, 9800, and 10070 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] 3.2 Futures Data - On November 5, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 452, up 56 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1269, down 66 from the previous day [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 650; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 27444, down 200 from the previous day; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 6838, down 702 from the previous day [1] 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production forecast for 2025 is raised to 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%, strengthening the global supply - loosening expectation [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach a two - year high. The inventory at the end of October is expected to be 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the highest since October 2023, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%. The crude palm oil production in the same period is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%, the highest since October 2018 [2] - As of October 29, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06%, rising for three consecutive weeks and at a recent high [2] - Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement [2] - StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield per acre to 53.6 bushels, still higher than the USDA forecast [2] - Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2, lagging behind the same period last year and the five - year average [2] - The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of Russia's new - season rapeseed oil [2]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Poor High - frequency Data of Malaysian Palm Oil, Oils and Fats Oscillating Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October while exports were poor, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. Palm oil lacks positive drivers and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential. Domestic soybean oil may experience slight de - stocking, and there is some support from exports. Domestic rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally, providing some support for its price [4][21]. Summary by Section 1. International Market 1.1 Malaysian Palm Oil - Production: MPOA data indicates a 11% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October. UOB expects the increase to be between 10% - 14%, and SPPOMA predicts a 2.71% increase compared to the same period last month. It is expected to slightly increase in October and be higher than the 5 - year average [7]. - Exports: ITS data shows a 0.4% decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days of October. Overall, exports in October are expected to be average and lower than the 5 - year average. The inventory in October is expected to reach 235 - 245 tons [7]. 1.2 Indonesian Palm Oil - Biodiesel consumption: In January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was 10.57 million liters, nearly 10% more than the same period last year. The implementation of biodiesel this year is smooth but may not reach the target. - Policy: Indonesia plans to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% in the second half of 2026. The predicted biodiesel target for next year is 17.55 - 17.85 million tons, with an increase in CPO of 1.8 - 2.1 million tons. However, some analysts expect the B50 policy to be postponed to 2027, which still disturbs the market [10]. 2. Domestic Market 2.1 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025 (Week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. It is currently at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same historical period. - Import: Palm oil imports were poor in September, only 190,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January - September were 2.25 million tons, at a historical low. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 120. It is expected that imports in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is expected to be stable and weak. - Market outlook: In the short term, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil is negative, and domestic palm oil is slightly accumulating inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential [13]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.224 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. - Supply and demand: This week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. Spot transactions were weak, and there were reports of small - scale exports to India. In the future, as soybean arrivals and crushing decrease, inventory may slightly de - stock, but overall supply is sufficient. - Market outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips for the 05 contract [16]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period but is continuously de - stocking. - Supply and demand: This week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 11,000 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil increased to around $1100, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 900. Rapeseed oil imports were relatively stable, while rapeseed imports decreased significantly to 115,000 tons. - Market outlook: The overall upward momentum of oils and fats is weak. The rapeseed oil market may fluctuate due to changes in rapeseed purchases and crushing. The current fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the continuous marginal de - stocking still supports the price [19]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider going long on dips after the market stabilizes. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [23]

Group 1: Report Core View - The global oil and fat market shows complex supply - demand dynamics in the 25/26 period. Despite an increase in global oil and fat production, the recovery of export and biodiesel demand since the second half of this year, along with palm oil supply issues, supports price increases. The supply of Malaysia and Indonesia is differentiated, with Malaysia's production possibly peaking in August while Indonesia's production recovers and inventory builds up. Global new - crop sunflower oil prices are not as weak as expected due to harvest delays and slow pressing growth. South American soybean oil has passed its export peak and has poor pressing profits. The rapeseed oil market is affected by policies, especially China - Canada relations. The trend - down of oil and fat prices may occur only if the palm oil production - reduction season in Malaysia and Indonesia is not obvious and the global biodiesel development slows down [195]. Group 2: Global Oilseeds and Oils Overview Production - Rapeseed production has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower seed production has been continuously adjusted downwards. In the 25/26 period, the production of some oilseeds is expected to change, with rapeseed showing an upward trend and sunflower seed a downward one [8]. - The production of rapeseed oil and palm oil has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower oil production has been continuously adjusted downwards [29]. Export - Rapeseed export has been continuously adjusted upwards, sunflower seed export has been adjusted downwards multiple times, and soybean export has been recently adjusted upwards [15]. - The export of rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil has been continuously adjusted downwards, while palm oil export has been continuously adjusted upwards [35]. Pressing - Rapeseed pressing has been continuously adjusted upwards, while soybean and sunflower seed pressing have been continuously adjusted downwards [21]. Inventory - Soybean and sunflower seed inventories are decreasing, while rapeseed inventory is increasing [23]. - The global oil and fat inventory - to - consumption ratio is slightly decreasing in the 25/26 period [38]. Group 3: Palm Oil Malaysia - Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia has been relatively good this year. From May, Malaysia's palm oil production has been below the average level for four consecutive months. In August, the production decreased by 2.05% year - on - year. The export in August increased by 1.19% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, and the cumulative export from January to August decreased by 10.80% year - on - year. The apparent consumption in August reached 490,000 tons, a record high. The inventory increased to 2.2 million tons. In September, there is a high possibility of production reduction, and the inventory build - up at the end of September may be limited [42][45][48][52]. Indonesia - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.99% month - on - month to 5.289 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to June was 27.89 million tons, 1.71 million tons more than the same period in 2024. The export in June increased by 35.56% month - on - month to 3.606 million tons. From July, production recovered again, and inventory began to build up. In August, production continued to recover, especially in the second half of August. Usually, the average production increase in September is the largest, but in 2025, due to precipitation and other factors, the actual increase may not reach the historical average of 5.43%. The inventory will continue to build up at the end of September, but the recovery will not be fast [60][68]. Group 4: Rapeseed EU - In August, the EU raised rapeseed production by 300,000 tons to 18.84 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 5.81 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing to 3.24 tons, a 2.15 - million - ton increase compared to the previous crop [75]. Canada - In August, Canada officially raised the 24/25 rapeseed production from 19.19 million tons to 20.1 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 8.68 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing from 2.08 tons to 2.35 tons. Exports were raised from 6 million tons to 7 million tons, domestic consumption from 11.5 million tons to 12.18 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.2 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 1.18 million tons [77]. Australia - Australia's 25/26 rapeseed production is 5.71 million tons, lower than the previous crop's 6.1 million tons, with both the planting area and yield per hectare decreasing. The harvest area is 3.379 million hectares, and the yield per hectare is 1.7 tons. Exports are 4.14 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 4.1 million tons. The rapeseed is currently in the growing season and will enter the harvesting period in October [83]. Russia and Ukraine - Russia's 2025 total rapeseed production is expected to reach 5 million tons, higher than last year's 4.66 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed production is estimated to be 3.5 million tons due to a decrease in the planting area and unfavorable weather during the growing season [87]. Group 5: Soybean Oil Brazil - In August, Brazil's soybean oil export was 160,000 tons, higher than July's 138,000 tons but lower than June's 167,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to August was 1.11 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024 [89]. Argentina - In August, Argentina's soybean oil export was 545,000 tons, lower than July's 569,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to July was 4.14 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024. The export growth rate of both Brazil and Argentina's soybean oil is slowing down [92]. USA - In July, the US exported 28,500 tons of soybean oil. The inventory and consumption data also show certain trends, but specific details are presented in the relevant charts [101]. Group 6: India - As of September 16, the price differences between different oils in India have changed. The import, inventory, and consumption of various oils also show different trends. For example, the import of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil has specific data changes over time, and the consumption of these oils also varies monthly [111][115][126]. Group 7: Biodiesel Indonesia - In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed 7.96 billion liters of biodiesel, completing 51% of the 2025 target of 15.6 billion liters, which supports the demand for palm oil [132]. EU - The EU's RME processing profit is average, and the import and export of biodiesel are decreasing. The import of UCO from China is at a high level, and the import of raw materials from Malaysia and Indonesia also shows certain trends [133][135][137]. USA - In June, the proportion of soybean oil in biodiesel feedstock reached 36%, rising for several consecutive months. The proportion of animal fat and waste oils remained high, and the proportion of Canadian rapeseed oil decreased to 8%. The import of various raw materials also shows specific data changes [144][146]. Brazil - On June 25, Brazil officially approved increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) starting from August 1, and plans to reach 16% (B16) in March 2026 and 17% (B17) in March 2027, with a final target of 25% (B25) [162]. Group 8: Domestic Market Supply - The domestic soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes, as well as the import volumes of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, show specific data changes over time. The spot price differences between different oils are affected by factors such as taxes and import volumes [167][169][171][182]. Inventory - The inventory of domestic edible palm oil, sunflower oil, and other oils, as well as the total inventory of the four major oils, show certain trends over time [184]. Transaction - The downstream purchases more soybean oil, especially the forward basis. The spot transaction of palm oil remains at a low level, and the domestic rapeseed oil transaction slows down after the sellable quantity of oil mills decreases [191]. Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of domestic oils shows the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other aspects over time [194].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - After the stagnation or decline of crude oil, the oils and fats are expected to experience a compensatory decline due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions with a light hand or buy put options [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to the previous day at 8640, 8570, and 8490 respectively [1] - **First - grade soybean oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu decreased by 20 compared to the previous day, reaching 8140, 8240, and 8190 respectively [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 100 compared to the previous day, reaching 9680, 9700, and 9880 respectively [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Soybean - palm oil main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was - 360, an increase of 16 compared to the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - soybean main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was 1492, a decrease of 130 compared to the previous day [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 0 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 18882 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 100 [1] 3.3 Palm Oil Information - **Malaysian production**: According to MPOA, from June 1 - 20, production decreased by 4.55% compared to the same period last month; according to SPPOMA, from June 1 - 20, production increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month, from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4%, from June 1 - 10, it decreased by 17%, and from June 1 - 5, it increased by 10% [2] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from June 1 - 25, exports increased by 7% compared to the previous period; from June 1 - 20, exports increased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from June 1 - 15, it increased by 26.3%; from June 1 - 10, it increased by 26.3% [2] - **Weather**: Malaysian precipitation is expected to be moderately low, which is beneficial for current production [2] 3.4 Soybean Information - **Argentine soybean harvest**: As of June 18, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 soybean season in Argentina was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind last year. Early - sown soybeans were 98.4% harvested with an average yield of 3.16 tons per hectare, and late - sown soybeans were 91% harvested with an average yield of 2.5 tons per hectare [2] - **US soybean situation**: According to USDA, as of the week ending June 22, the sowing progress of US soybeans reached 96%, higher than the previous week's 93% but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 97% and the five - year average of 97%. The emergence rate was 90%, higher than the previous week's 84% and in line with the historical average. The first - reported flowering rate this week was 8%, higher than last year's and the historical average of 7%. The good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as last week and lower than the analysts' expectation of 67% [2] - **US weather**: Precipitation in the US is expected to be moderately high in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [2]