私人投资预计也将迎来增长势头。在投资委员会批准的各项项目的推动 下，今年私人投资将增长3.2%，而去年同期为2.9%。 预计2025年的整体通胀率将下降0.1%，随后今年会上升0.3%。不过这一 水平仍低于泰国央行设定的1%-3%的通胀目标范围。 关于泰铢升值对出口的影响，他表示预计2026年的平均汇率为1美元兑 35.5泰铢，而2025年的平均汇率约为1美元兑32.9泰铢。 FPO总干事维尼特将去年GDP增长预期的下调归因于第三季度经济增长速 度仅为1.2%，远低于预期。此外，10月和11月炼油厂的停产也严重影响了制造 业的发展。 然而，经济增长在第四季度出现反弹，增幅高达1.8%。这一增长得益于一 系列刺激消费的措施，包括"Khon La Khrueng Plus"共同支付计划、"Tiew Dee Mee Kuen"（旅游优惠退税计划）以及加快的预算支出。 预计到2026年，GDP的增长将主要得益于旅游业的发展：届时外国游客数 量将达到3550万人次，比去年的3290万人次增加7%。 （原标题：泰财政政策办公室将2025年GDP增长预期下调至2.2%） 据曼谷邮报1月28日报道，泰财政政策办公室（FPO） ...

格隆汇2月13日｜惠誉旗下研究机构BMI在一份报告中表示，泰铢到2026年底可能走弱，美元/泰铢料在 32.00左右交易。BMI指出，随着泰国政府加强监管，金价与泰铢之间的正相关性预计将减弱，因为相 关政策将抑制与黄金有关的资金流动。自3月1日起，泰国央行将对黄金交易设定每日5000万泰铢的上 限，超过该额度需事先获批。此外，BMI预计，泰国央行可能会把支持经济增长放在更优先位置，并在 2026年进一步降息50个基点，将政策利率降至0.75%。 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The Bank of Thailand expects the "Khon La Khrueng Plus" co-payment scheme to boost GDP growth in Q4 of this year, projecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5% after a contraction in the previous quarter [1] - The central bank anticipates a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 1.3% in Q4, down from 1.5% in Q3, primarily supported by government stimulus measures aimed at encouraging shared healthcare costs and boosting domestic tourism [1] Sector Performance - The economic recovery is expected to be bolstered by an expansion in exports, driven by companies ramping up production and previously closed factories resuming operations [1] - Temporary production halts in various sectors, including oil, automotive, and alcoholic beverages, contributed to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in Q3 [1] Currency and Tourism - The Bank of Thailand has revised down its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively, due to domestic and international economic challenges [2] - Despite a strong Thai baht, which appreciated by 7.8% earlier this year, its recent depreciation of 4.4% against the US dollar has negatively impacted Thailand's export and tourism competitiveness [2] - The central bank projects an increase in foreign tourist arrivals in Q4, estimating a total of 33 million foreign visitors for the year, with expectations to rise to 35.5 million by 2026 [2] Chinese Tourist Recovery - Following a significant decline of 55% in April, the number of Chinese tourists is showing signs of recovery, with a projected reduction in decline to 28.9% this month [3] - The central bank forecasts that the number of Chinese tourists will reach 4.4 million by 2025 and increase to 6.6 million by 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai business community believes that trade negotiations are unlikely to conclude quickly, indicating ongoing challenges in international trade relations [1] Group 1: Trade Outlook - Exports are expected to decline by over 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year, reflecting a significant downturn in trade performance [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - There is a call for the Bank of Thailand to lower the benchmark interest rate to manage the exchange rate of the Thai baht, suggesting concerns over currency stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand will closely monitor the exchange rate of the Thai baht, with core inflation expected to remain stable [1] Group 1 - The central bank's focus on the baht's exchange rate indicates a proactive approach to managing currency fluctuations [1] - Stability in core inflation suggests a controlled economic environment, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1]