Group 1: Hot News - China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days during the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%, and also adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3% [2] - From January to June, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 40.745 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the total profit was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The asset-liability ratio at the end of June was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self-media news about the anti-involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in polysilicon, was seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [3] - US President Trump announced a 10 - day deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine and threatened economic punishment if Russia did not act [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PVC, and PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.75%, precious metals 27.10%, oilseeds 11.77%, non - ferrous metals 2.78%, soft commodities 21.03%, coal - coking - steel - ore 15.29%, energy 3.31%, chemicals 11.90%, grains 1.14%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.92% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% daily, 4.80% monthly, and 7.70% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.30% daily [8] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.25% daily, 0.70% monthly, and 0.73% year - to - date [8] - In the commodity category, WTI crude oil rose 3.91% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 6.91% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.36% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 26.29% year - to - date [8] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.26% daily, 0.93% monthly, and fell 9.05% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 10.76% monthly, and 13.95% year - to - date [8]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Relations - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung expressed uncertainty about reaching a trade agreement with Washington before the deadline to avoid increased tariffs by the U.S. [1] - The potential increase in tariffs from 10% to 25% on South Korean exports to the U.S. poses a significant risk to the South Korean economy, which relies heavily on exports [1][2] - The Bank of Korea has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.8% due to the impact of U.S. trade actions [2] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - President Lee Jae-myung has committed to revitalizing the sluggish economy and improving living standards, with the establishment of an emergency economic task force as a priority [2] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market while respecting market principles and protecting consumers, amid rising housing prices and household debt concerns [2] - The recent stock market performance, with the KOSPI index rising approximately 25% since the previous administration, reflects market optimism regarding pro-business policies [3][4] Group 3: International Relations - President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the importance of restoring dialogue with North Korea and improving relations with China and Russia [1] - Humanitarian aid to North Korea is part of the strategy to enhance the living conditions of its citizens [2] - Lee expressed a desire for improved relations with Japan, despite ongoing territorial disputes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.7% to 5% [1] Group 1 - The adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook on China's economic recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.7% to 5% [1] Group 1 - The adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook on China's economic recovery [1] - The new forecast indicates a potential increase in investment opportunities within the Chinese market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow down due to tariffs, with a 40% chance of recession in the near future [1] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to be 1.3%, down from the earlier forecast of 2% [1] - The impact of tariff increases is cited as the reason for the downward revision of this year's GDP growth expectations [1] Currency and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley is bearish on the U.S. dollar, attributing this to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth [1] - The firm anticipates that policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including those of emerging markets [1] - A forecast of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected between December and spring 2026 [1] - If a recession or a more significant economic slowdown occurs, a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle may be triggered [1] Stock Market Perspective - Despite the uncertainties in policy, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing the resilience of consumers and the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia and Thailand, are implementing large-scale economic stimulus plans to mitigate the impact of high U.S. tariffs on their economies [1][2]. Group 1: Indonesia's Economic Stimulus - Indonesia has announced a summer economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1.5 billion) aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth during the school holiday period [2]. - The Indonesian economy is facing challenges, with a GDP growth of only 4.87% year-on-year in the first quarter, the weakest since Q3 2021 [2]. - The Indonesian government expects the economic growth rate to stabilize around 5% in the second quarter, supported by fiscal measures [2]. Group 2: Thailand's Economic Response - Thailand's government has approved an economic stimulus plan with a budget of 157 billion Thai baht, focusing on community economy, tourism, agriculture, infrastructure, and low-interest loans for small businesses [3]. - The Thai economy is also under pressure from weak domestic demand and high household debt, alongside external challenges such as ongoing trade wars [3]. Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - The region is experiencing a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Thailand's growth forecast lowered from 3%-3.5% to 1.8% by the World Bank and IMF [4]. - Malaysia's central bank has indicated that economic growth may fall below the previously predicted range of 4.5%-5.5% due to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs [4]. - The Philippines reported a first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, below the government's target of 6%-8% [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Southeast Asia are responding to economic pressures, with the Philippines expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points due to reduced inflation and uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [5]. - Malaysia is also anticipated to cut interest rates for the first time since May 2023, while providing additional loan guarantees for SMEs affected by U.S. tariffs [5]. - Vietnam is considering extending a VAT reduction measure to support economic growth, which may lead to significant tax revenue losses in the coming years [5]. Group 5: Concerns Over Stimulus Measures - Experts express concerns that excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus could have adverse effects, such as widening the income gap and increasing household debt levels [6][7]. - In Thailand, the cancellation of a digital wallet plan has led to public disappointment, highlighting the potential political ramifications of economic policy changes [7]. - Vietnam's extension of VAT reductions raises concerns about future tax revenue losses, with projected losses of approximately 39.5 trillion Vietnamese dong in the second half of 2025 and 82.2 trillion in 2026 [7].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 3, totaling 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a bid and winning amount of 454.5 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 830 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a balanced but slightly loose funding condition, with the overnight weighted average rate for deposit institutions around 1.40% and non-bank institutions borrowing at approximately 1.55% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.35% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.71% [6] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds were as follows: - 1Y: 1.4625% - 2Y: 1.4800% - 3Y: 1.4875% - 5Y: 1.5450% - 7Y: 1.6300% - 10Y: 1.6770% [9] Group 5: Recent City Investment Bonds (AAA) Spread Trends - The article discusses the trends and data regarding the spreads of city investment bonds, indicating ongoing monitoring of the market [10] Group 6: National Debt Futures Closing - The closing prices for national debt futures were as follows: - 30-year main contract increased by 0.03% - 10-year main contract decreased by 0.03% - 5-year main contract decreased by 0.04% - 2-year main contract decreased by 0.04% [12] Group 7: Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded at 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 [13] - In May, the central bank conducted a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for the month [13] Group 8: Global Macro Outlook - The OECD has revised down its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% from 3.1%, and for the U.S. to 1.6% from 2.2% [15] Group 9: Bond Market News - Notable bond market events include: - New World Development's issuance of $3.4 billion perpetual securities - Jin Ke Co.'s restructuring plan entering the execution phase - Kunming City Investment facing two new enforcement actions involving over 220 million yuan [16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the allure of the Indian market for investors despite its historical pitfalls, emphasizing that the narrative surrounding India often overshadows the actual financial performance [4][5][12] - It highlights that many investors are drawn to the potential of India's large population and the optimistic GDP growth story, even if the reality may not align with these expectations [9][16][19] - The piece suggests that the capital market's perception of India is often short-lived, with investors quickly forgetting past issues in favor of new opportunities [20][21] Group 2 - The article points out that while India has a history of exploiting foreign investments, the promise of a large market continues to attract capital [13][14][22] - It notes that the current economic landscape shows a decline in traditional markets like Germany and Japan, making India appear as a more viable option for growth [10][11] - The narrative of India as the next China is a compelling story that continues to entice investors, despite the underlying risks [15][18]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government maintains its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 2% to 3% based on the latest developments in both global and local conditions [1] - The decision is influenced by the actual figures from the first quarter of the year [1] - The government will continue to closely monitor the relevant situations [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, stating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that there is a need to reconsider the language around labor market slack and average inflation rates, with April PCE expected to drop to 2.2% [1] - Fed official Barr warned that while the U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation [1] - Barclays revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth from -0.3% to 0.5%, no longer expecting a recession in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Global Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2025 from 0.7% to 1.1% and for Vietnam from 5.3% to 5.5% [3] - The Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, with an expected average core inflation rate of 3.4% for the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of 3.3% [3] Group 3: Currency and Trade Developments - Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering unilaterally modifying its trade agreement with Japan during tariff negotiations [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,065 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [4] - Japan's first-quarter GDP fell short of expectations, leading markets to anticipate a delay in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated there is no need to rush into rate cuts, indicating that market expectations for the next meeting are appropriate [4] - Barclays adjusted its Eurozone economic growth forecast from -0.2% to 0%, while cautioning that uncertainty risks remain [4]