1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% and paused rate cuts for the second consecutive time in 2026. The Fed continued its cautious tone and will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude due to complex internal and external situations. The threshold for rate cuts has significantly increased, and the Fed will not consider rate cuts without further improvement in inflation. Although rate hikes are not the baseline scenario, internal discussions among officials have increased. The expectation of rate cuts within the year may converge, and attention should be paid to the persistence of the Middle East situation and high oil prices [5][7][29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Statement - Overall, it changed little compared to January. The description of the unemployment rate was adjusted from "showing certain signs of stabilization" to "little change in recent months", and the statement "the impact of the development of the Middle East situation on the US economy is uncertain" was added. Only one person voted against the decision, and Fed Governor Milan voted against for the fifth consecutive time, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut [13][14] 3.2 Economic Forecast - **GDP Growth**: The GDP growth expectations for 2026 - 2028 and the long - term were raised. The expected real GDP growth rates for 2026, 2027, 2028, and the long - term are 2.4% (previous value 2.3%), 2.3% (previous value 2.0%), 2.1% (previous value 1.9%), and 2.0% (previous value 1.8%) respectively [2][15] - **Unemployment**: The unemployment rate expectation for 2027 was raised by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, while the unemployment rates in 2026 and 2028 remained at 4.4% and 4.2% respectively [2][15] - **Inflation**: The PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year were raised. In 2026, the PCE and core PCE expectations were raised by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively. In 2027, both PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations were raised by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2% [2][15] - **Dot Plot**: The March dot plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in December. The Fed's interest rate outlook for the next three years remained basically unchanged, indicating only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027. The long - term interest rate median was raised to around 3.1%, with less than two rate - cut spaces. The high dispersion of officials' forecasts for 2027 indicates significant differences in their views on the subsequent rate - cut amplitude, increasing policy uncertainty [3][18] 3.3 Labor Market - The employment market is in a fragile balance of weak supply and demand, with certain downward risks. Current employment growth is at a low level, labor demand has weakened significantly, and labor supply has declined simultaneously due to factors such as immigration. In February, the number of new non - farm employment in the US decreased by 92,000. Although the unemployment rate has basically remained around 4.4% since September 2025, the Fed warned that energy shocks may have a negative impact on employment and the overall economy [5][20] 3.4 Inflation - Tariffs and energy prices are putting double pressure on inflation, and the process of inflation decline has slowed down. The core CPI in the US in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly five years, but the oil - price shock caused by the Middle East situation was not reflected in the February data. The Fed raised the inflation expectations for this year and next year. The inflation cooling process in the US has significantly slowed down, short - term inflation expectations have rebounded in recent weeks, and commodity inflation may not decline significantly until mid - year [5][24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by the Atlanta Fed President Bostic is that if inflation worsens, the Federal Reserve does not rule out the possibility of tightening monetary policy again [1] - Bostic indicated that the current neutral interest rate may be 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points lower than the current policy rate, suggesting that the Fed's rates are still in a restrictive range [1] - He provided economic growth forecasts, predicting a GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a return to trend levels in 2028, while noting that significant fiscal stimulus is on the way, which could exert inflationary pressure [1] Group 2 - Bostic's statements align with recent signals from within the Federal Reserve, as the January monetary policy meeting minutes revealed clear divisions regarding the interest rate path [2] - Some participants at the meeting supported a "two-way" approach in forward guidance to reflect the possibility of rate hikes amid persistent inflation, while most warned that progress towards the 2% inflation target may be slower and more uneven than expected [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% during the January meeting, ending a series of three consecutive rate cuts [2]

Economic Growth Outlook - The Thai Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has revised the GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.2%, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 2% [1] - The downward adjustment for 2025 is attributed to a lower-than-expected economic growth rate of 1.2% in the third quarter, significantly impacted by refinery shutdowns in October and November [1] - A rebound in economic growth is observed in the fourth quarter, with an increase of 1.8%, driven by consumer stimulus measures [1] Tourism and Private Investment - By 2026, GDP growth is expected to benefit primarily from the tourism sector, with foreign tourist arrivals projected to reach 35.5 million, a 7% increase from 32.9 million in the previous year [1] - Private investment is anticipated to grow by 3.2% this year, up from 2.9% in the same period last year, supported by projects approved by the investment committee [1] Inflation and Currency Exchange Rate - The overall inflation rate for 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.1%, followed by a rise of 0.3% in the subsequent year, remaining below the central bank's target range of 1%-3% [1] - The average exchange rate for 2026 is projected at 35.5 Thai Baht per US dollar, while the average for 2025 is estimated at 32.9 Thai Baht per US dollar [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Singapore's government has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026, but this is unlikely to lead to an immediate tightening of monetary policy by the central bank [1] - Barclays' FICC research department, represented by Brian Tan, indicates that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) likely considered the more optimistic growth outlook when it maintained the nominal effective exchange rate policy last month [1] - Tan notes that the risks surrounding the GDP growth forecast, particularly the uncertainties brought by the artificial intelligence boom, may inhibit MAS from tightening monetary policy immediately [1] Group 2 - Barclays' fundamental judgment remains that MAS is expected to initiate tightening measures in July [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted Poland's GDP growth forecasts, increasing the 2026 projection by 0.4 percentage points to 3.5% and decreasing the 2027 projection by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% [1] Summary by Category - **GDP Growth Forecasts** - The IMF has raised Poland's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.5% [1] - The forecast for 2027 has been lowered to 2.7% [1] - **Report Details** - The IMF's report does not provide any rationale for the changes in the GDP forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Brazil's GDP growth forecast for 2026 down from 1.9% to 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of Brazil's tightening monetary policy [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - Brazil's GDP growth forecast for 2026 is now set at 1.6%, which is lower than the Brazilian Ministry of Finance's prediction of 2.4% and the World Bank's estimate of 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Chile has revised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the economy driven by increased market demand and investment in fixed assets, particularly in the mining and energy sectors [1] Economic Growth Projections - The GDP growth for 2025 is set at 2.4%, while the forecast for 2026 has been raised from a range of 1.75%-2.75% to 2%-3% [1] - For 2027, the GDP growth is expected to remain in the range of 1.5%-2.5% [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 7% in 2025, 4.9% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027, with significant contributions from large mining and energy projects [1] - Private consumption is expected to recover, with growth rates of 2.5% for 2025-2026 and 2% for 2027 [1] Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market shows slight improvement, although the unemployment rate remains above historical averages [1] - Inflation is forecasted to decrease to 3.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026 [1] Monetary Policy - The neutral monetary policy interest rate is set between 3.75% and 4.75%, with a reference midpoint of 4.25% for analysis [1]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and a total reduction of 75 basis points in 2023 [1][2] - The FOMC decided to purchase $40 billion in Treasury securities over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve supply [2] - There was a notable division within the FOMC, with 9 members in favor and 3 against the decision, indicating increasing internal disagreements [2] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the rate cut, suggesting it could have been larger [2] Economic Outlook - The FOMC emphasized its commitment to achieving maximum employment and maintaining a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The committee noted rising downside risks in the employment sector, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% for next year [5] - Inflation has risen since earlier this year and remains relatively high, with risks skewed towards the upside [6][11] - The FOMC's dot plot indicates a slower pace of rate cuts in the coming year, with only one anticipated 25 basis point cut [7] Employment and Inflation Projections - The FOMC removed the description of the unemployment rate as "low," reflecting increased downside risks in employment [5] - Current indicators suggest that job growth has been overstated by 60,000 positions, with the unemployment rate potentially rising by 0.1%-0.2% [5] - The median projection for PCE inflation is 2.9% for this year and 2.4% for next year, indicating a slight increase in confidence regarding future inflation moderation [11]

Economic Growth Forecast - The European Commission has revised Slovenia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.0% to 1.0% while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 2.4% [1] - Slovenia's GDP growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.6% in 2027 [2] Inflation and Employment - Inflation rates are projected to reach 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, both higher by 0.4 percentage points than previous forecasts [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in both 2026 and 2027 [2] Private and Public Spending - Private and public spending in Slovenia is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of the year, driven by winter or Christmas bonuses for employees [1] - Public investment is expected to remain high in 2026, supported by the European recovery and resilience fund [1] Wage Growth - Wage growth is projected to be 7.9% in 2025, followed by 5.7% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027, influenced by public sector wage increases and labor shortages [2] Trade Balance - The contribution of foreign trade balance to Slovenia's economic growth is expected to remain neutral by the end of 2027, with exports continuing to grow due to increased demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Slovenia's GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a slower economic recovery than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Forecast - Slovenia's GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2%, with a further increase to 2.3% expected in 2027 [1] - The economy experienced a contraction in Q1 of this year but rebounded in Q2 and Q3, with an overall growth rate of 0.8% anticipated for the year [1] Inflation and Long-term Projections - If food and energy price increases slow down, inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% by 2030 [1] - Mid-term GDP growth is expected to stabilize at approximately 2.1% [1] Structural Challenges - The IMF highlights ongoing structural reform challenges, including the need for improved efficiency in the public sector and tax system [1] - Slovenia needs to find additional funding sources for pension and long-term care systems [1] - Key challenges include labor shortages, administrative barriers, enhancing the innovation environment, and providing incentives for promising businesses, necessitating increased investment to boost productivity [1]