巴西央行发布报告，将今年巴GDP增长预期从2.1%下调至2%，低于卢拉政府和金融市场预测水 平。巴央行表示，特朗普政府对巴输美产品加征关税的影响仍存在不确定性。贸易战将影响工业、投资 和对外部门表现，可能会加剧巴经济放缓趋势。由于紧缩性货币政策、全球经济放缓、农业增长不及预 期等因素，巴央行预计2026年巴GDP增速为1.5%。 （原标题：巴西央行将今年巴GDP增长预期下调至2%） ...

特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰一人投反对票，主张降息50基点。利率预测中位值显示联储预计明年降息一次。点阵图显示，九人预计今年内再降息两 次，人数未过半。美联储上调今明后年GDP增长预期，上调明后年PCE通胀预期。"新美联储通讯社"：对就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的担忧，这 为美联储转向小幅降息提供了理由。 要点 ： 美联储九个月来首次降息，降幅和行动时点符合市场预期。 本次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、就业下行风险增加、风险平衡已转变，删除劳动力市场稳健。 特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰一人投反对票，主张降息50基点，上次会议投票反对的两人均支持本次利率决议。 利率预测中位值显示联储预计今年共降息三次，较上次增一次，明年再降一次。点阵图显示，九人预计今年内再降息两次，人数未过半，六人预计年内不再降 息，一人预计降息五次、即今年合计降息150基点。 美联储上调今明后年GDP增长预期，下调明后年的失业率预期，上调明后年PCE通胀预期，预计2028年通胀达到目标2%。 "新美联储通讯社"：对就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的担忧，这为美联储转向小幅降息提供了理由。 美联储今年首次降息如约而至，联储官 ...

巴西《圣保罗州报》报道，巴财政部将今年GDP增长预期从2.5%下调至2.3%，通胀预期从4.9%下 调至4.8%。2025年8月至2026年12月，美国对巴加征关税可能导致巴GDP增速下降0.2个百分点，但巴政 府颁布的"巴西主权计划"有望将负面影响减半至0.1个百分点。在不考虑"巴西主权计划"作用的情况 下，巴将损失约13.8万个就业岗位，服务业可能损失5.18万个就业岗位，占该行业就业岗位总数的 0.1%，工业将损失7.15万个就业岗位，占比约0.4%；出口占GDP比重将下降0.1个百分点；失业率将上 升0.1个百分点；通胀率将上升0.1个百分点。 （原标题：巴西财政部将今年GDP增长预期下调至2.3%） ...

新华财经墨西哥城8月20日电 墨西哥金融高管协会（IMEF）近日将2025年墨西哥GDP增长预期从0.1% 上调至0.4%，但指出该水平仍属疲弱。 分析人士指出，墨西哥经济近期持续受到外部需求波动、美国关税政策不确定性及国内消费疲软等因素 影响，增长动能依然不足。 （文章来源：新华财经） 墨西哥金融高管协会全国主席加布里埃拉·古铁雷斯表示，第二季度GDP增长0.7%超出市场预期，推动 全年经济预测小幅上调。"尽管如此，这一数据仍显示墨西哥经济在2025年的表现十分疲弱。"她说。 墨西哥金融高管协会全国经济研究委员会主席维克托·曼努埃尔·埃雷拉表示，美国推迟加征部分关税也 为前景改善提供了一定支撑。"关税政策多次出现宣布、取消、再推迟的情况，导致出口流量先行受 阻，后又恢复。"他说。 在宏观预期方面，墨西哥金融高管协会维持今年年底通胀率在4.0%的预测，并预计墨西哥央行利率将 在年底降至7.25%。 ...

高盛集团也将韩国今年GDP增速预期由1.1%调至1.2%，并表示韩美经贸协议降低了半导体等部分 产品单独关税的不确定性，将韩国今明两年GDP增速预期各上调0.1个百分点至1.2%和2.2%。 国际金融中心数据显示，截至7月底，8家国际投行对韩国今年GDP增速预期平均为0.9%，已连续 两个月维持不变。业内预计，韩国银行或将在8月修正经济展望，上调今年GDP增速预期。 韩国《韩联社》8月6日报道，据金融业界6日消息，国际投资银行近期纷纷上调韩国今年实际国内 生产总值（GDP）增长预期。8家主要国际投行中，摩根大通曾最为悲观，但已两次上调预期，从0.5% 先后调至0.6%和0.7%，称出口向好和制造业增长推动第二季度GDP略高于市场预期。 （原标题：国际投行上调韩今年GDP增长预期） ...

Group 1: Hot News - China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days during the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%, and also adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3% [2] - From January to June, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 40.745 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the total profit was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The asset-liability ratio at the end of June was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self-media news about the anti-involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in polysilicon, was seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [3] - US President Trump announced a 10 - day deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine and threatened economic punishment if Russia did not act [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PVC, and PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.75%, precious metals 27.10%, oilseeds 11.77%, non - ferrous metals 2.78%, soft commodities 21.03%, coal - coking - steel - ore 15.29%, energy 3.31%, chemicals 11.90%, grains 1.14%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.92% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% daily, 4.80% monthly, and 7.70% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.30% daily [8] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.25% daily, 0.70% monthly, and 0.73% year - to - date [8] - In the commodity category, WTI crude oil rose 3.91% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 6.91% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.36% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 26.29% year - to - date [8] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.26% daily, 0.93% monthly, and fell 9.05% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 10.76% monthly, and 13.95% year - to - date [8]

IMF将2025年俄罗斯GDP增长预期下调0.6个百分点至0.9%，此前该组织曾在4月份将俄罗斯GDP增长预 测从1.4%小幅上调0.1个百分点至1.5%。 （国际文传电讯社） ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Relations - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung expressed uncertainty about reaching a trade agreement with Washington before the deadline to avoid increased tariffs by the U.S. [1] - The potential increase in tariffs from 10% to 25% on South Korean exports to the U.S. poses a significant risk to the South Korean economy, which relies heavily on exports [1][2] - The Bank of Korea has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.8% due to the impact of U.S. trade actions [2] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - President Lee Jae-myung has committed to revitalizing the sluggish economy and improving living standards, with the establishment of an emergency economic task force as a priority [2] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market while respecting market principles and protecting consumers, amid rising housing prices and household debt concerns [2] - The recent stock market performance, with the KOSPI index rising approximately 25% since the previous administration, reflects market optimism regarding pro-business policies [3][4] Group 3: International Relations - President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the importance of restoring dialogue with North Korea and improving relations with China and Russia [1] - Humanitarian aid to North Korea is part of the strategy to enhance the living conditions of its citizens [2] - Lee expressed a desire for improved relations with Japan, despite ongoing territorial disputes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.7% to 5% [1] Group 1 - The adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook on China's economic recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.7% to 5% [1] Group 1 - The adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook on China's economic recovery [1] - The new forecast indicates a potential increase in investment opportunities within the Chinese market [1]