巴西InfoMoney网站11月13日报道，国际评级机构穆迪将巴西2025年GDP增长预期从2%上调至 2.1%。穆迪预计，在经济多元化和出口的推动下，巴西2026年和2027年的GDP增长率将为2%。穆迪认 为，中国仍将是巴西重要的大宗商品出口市场。 （原标题：穆迪将巴西2025年GDP增长预期上调至2.1%） ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Brazil's GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - This growth rate aligns with the average for Latin America and the Caribbean but remains below the average for emerging market economies, which is 4.2% [1] - The IMF has lowered Brazil's GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, citing factors such as U.S. tariffs and restrictive monetary and fiscal policies as contributors to the economic slowdown [1] Summary by Categories GDP Growth Forecast - Brazil's GDP growth forecast for 2023 is now 2.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The forecast for 2024 has been adjusted down to 1.9%, down by 0.2 percentage points [1] Regional Comparison - Brazil's growth rate is in line with the average for Latin America and the Caribbean [1] - However, it is significantly lower than the average growth rate for emerging markets, which stands at 4.2% [1] Economic Influences - The IMF attributes the expected slowdown in Brazil's economy to external factors, including U.S. tariffs and restrictive monetary and fiscal policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials support two more interest rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, and believe that tariffs will not lead to sustained inflation [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year has been revised up to 1.8% from the previous 1.3% [1] - Employment growth is still expected to remain weak [1] Market Movements - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures opened at 904.88 CNY/g and closed at 927.56 CNY/g, a change of 2.88% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures opened at 11,189.00 CNY/kg and closed at 11,531.00 CNY/kg, a change of 4.05% [1] - The trading volume for gold contracts was 618,953, an increase of 100.67% [1] - The trading volume for silver contracts was 2,823,544, an increase of 161.01% [1] Bond Market - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, an increase of 0.38 basis points [1] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.531%, an increase of 0.18 basis points [1] Precious Metals ETF - As of October 13, 2025, gold ETF holdings remained at 1,017.16 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 310 tons to 15,754 tons [1] Trading Strategy - The strategy for gold is cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 925 CNY/g and 955 CNY/g [1] - The strategy for silver is also cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 11,500 CNY/kg and 11,800 CNY/kg [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 down from 2.1% to 2%, which is below the expectations of both the Lula government and financial markets [1] Economic Impact - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Brazilian exports to the U.S. remains a concern [1] - The ongoing trade war is expected to affect industrial performance, investment, and the external sector, potentially exacerbating the economic slowdown in Brazil [1] Future Projections - The Central Bank anticipates a GDP growth rate of 1.5% for Brazil in 2026, influenced by tight monetary policy, global economic slowdown, and underwhelming agricultural growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut in nine months, aligning with market expectations, and is projected to lower rates further in the coming months [3][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was anticipated by investors, with a 96% probability indicated in futures markets prior to the announcement [6][12]. - The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials now suggests a total of three rate cuts for this year, an increase from the previous estimate of two [5][20]. - The dot plot indicates that while nine officials expect two more cuts this year, this does not constitute a majority, as six officials predict no further cuts [21][20]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years, while also adjusting unemployment rate expectations downward for the same period [23][24]. - The PCE inflation expectations have been raised for the next two years, with a target of returning to 2% by 2028 [23][27]. Employment and Risks - The latest statement highlights a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating rising risks in the labor market [4][9]. - The shift in focus from inflation concerns to employment risks provides a rationale for the Federal Reserve's decision to implement a modest rate cut [6][8]. Voting Dynamics - In the recent vote, only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposed the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [12][14]. - The voting results indicate a less divided stance among Federal Reserve officials compared to previous meetings, suggesting a consensus on the current economic strategy [15][12]. Future Projections - The updated projections show a median federal funds rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025, down from previous estimates, with expectations of further cuts in the following years [17][20]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to total 125 basis points from September 2023 to the end of 2027, which is significantly lower than the 300 basis points previously suggested by former President Trump [17][20].

Economic Outlook - Brazil's Ministry of Finance has revised the GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.5% to 2.3% [1] - Inflation expectations have also been adjusted downwards from 4.9% to 4.8% [1] Impact of Tariffs - The potential imposition of tariffs by the U.S. from August 2025 to December 2026 could lead to a 0.2 percentage point decrease in Brazil's GDP growth [1] - However, the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" is expected to mitigate this negative impact, reducing the GDP growth decline to 0.1 percentage points [1] Employment Effects - Without considering the effects of the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan," Brazil could lose approximately 138,000 jobs [1] - The services sector may see a loss of 51,800 jobs, representing about 0.1% of total employment in that sector [1] - The industrial sector is projected to lose 71,500 jobs, accounting for roughly 0.4% of its total employment [1] Additional Economic Indicators - The share of exports in GDP is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The unemployment rate may increase by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Inflation rate is anticipated to rise by 0.1 percentage points [1]

Core Insights - The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) has revised its GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2025 from 0.1% to 0.4%, indicating a still weak economic outlook [1] - The second quarter GDP growth of 0.7% exceeded market expectations, contributing to a slight upward adjustment in the annual economic forecast, although the overall performance remains weak [1] - External factors such as fluctuations in demand, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and weak domestic consumption continue to impact Mexico's economic growth momentum [1] Economic Forecasts - IMEF maintains the inflation rate forecast at 4.0% for the end of this year [1] - The Mexican central bank's interest rate is expected to decrease to 7.25% by the end of the year [1] Tariff Policy Impact - The delay in the imposition of certain tariffs by the U.S. has provided some support for the economic outlook, as the erratic nature of tariff announcements has affected export flows [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major international investment banks have raised their GDP growth forecasts for South Korea in 2023, indicating a positive outlook driven by improved exports and manufacturing growth [1] Group 1: GDP Growth Forecasts - JPMorgan has revised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 0.5% to 0.6% and then to 0.7%, citing better-than-expected second-quarter GDP performance [1] - Goldman Sachs has increased its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 1.1% to 1.2%, attributing this to reduced uncertainties in tariffs on certain products due to the Korea-U.S. trade agreement [1] - The average GDP growth forecast from eight major international investment banks for South Korea stands at 0.9% as of the end of July, remaining unchanged for two consecutive months [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook Adjustments - The Bank of Korea is expected to revise its economic outlook in August, likely increasing its GDP growth forecast for the year [1]

Group 1: Hot News - China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days during the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%, and also adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3% [2] - From January to June, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 40.745 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and the total profit was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The asset-liability ratio at the end of June was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self-media news about the anti-involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in polysilicon, was seriously inconsistent with the actual situation [3] - US President Trump announced a 10 - day deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine and threatened economic punishment if Russia did not act [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PVC, and PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.75%, precious metals 27.10%, oilseeds 11.77%, non - ferrous metals 2.78%, soft commodities 21.03%, coal - coking - steel - ore 15.29%, energy 3.31%, chemicals 11.90%, grains 1.14%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.92% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% daily, 4.80% monthly, and 7.70% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.30% daily [8] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.25% daily, 0.70% monthly, and 0.73% year - to - date [8] - In the commodity category, WTI crude oil rose 3.91% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 6.91% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.36% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 26.29% year - to - date [8] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.26% daily, 0.93% monthly, and fell 9.05% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 10.76% monthly, and 13.95% year - to - date [8]

Group 1 - The IMF has revised down its GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025 by 0.6 percentage points to 0.9% [1] - Previously, the IMF had slightly raised Russia's GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.5% in April [1]