（原标题：拉美经委会预测2025年智利经济增长2.4%） 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）智利版网站8月6日报道，拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会 （ECLAC）发布报告显示，预计该地区2025年经济增长率为2.2%，较2024年有所降 低，其中阿根廷经济增幅最快，增长率将达到5%；智利经济增长相对温和，预计增长 率为2.4%古巴和海地经济将有所下滑，预计经济将分别衰退1.5%和2.3%。报告称。墨 西哥是受美国关税政策影响最为严重的国家，预计2025年经济增长率仅为0.3%；巴西 出口产品仅有11%流向美国，因此受到的冲击有限。报告称在复杂不利的国际环境下， 各国迫切需要加快调动发展资源，避免再次陷入"失去的十年"，呼吁各国实施变革性的 财政政策，增加私人投资，重启国际合作，并建立强大且灵活的机构体系。 ...

白宫新闻秘书：我们看到有数万亿美元的私人投资。 ...

德国总理默茨：全力支持欧洲乌克兰重建基金调动私人投资。 ...

在报告统计的50个样本经济体中，在不同支柱及其具体方面表现差距较大。有些国家和地区企业注册只 需3天，而有的国家和地区则需要80天或更久；有些国家和地区电力中断次数每月达4次，但也有高达22 次的国家和地区；纳税申报时间在各个国家和地区之间也从几个小时到几周不等。 以上数据表明，全球营商环境的跨国差异并未趋于收敛，而是呈现分化扩大的趋势。尽管整体进展不明 显，但个别国家和地区的亮点表现说明改革仍有可能。比如，报告指出爱沙尼亚的亮点在公共服务领 域，尤其在数字政府和服务数字化方面处于世界领先地位，其电子报税、电子政务平台高度发达；新加 坡的亮点在运营效率方面，其开办企业、处理许可、税务申报、争议解决等方面效率较高，且具有良好 的数字基础设施；匈牙利、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克的亮点在于监管框架。上述国家在法规制定和执行层面表 现稳定，尤其在商业设立、竞争政策、破产程序等领域实施了改革等。 （文章来源：经济日报） 日前，世界银行发布旗舰报告《营商就绪情况2024年版》，取代原《营商环境报告》，旨在以更全面、 公正、透明的方式评估全球商业和投资环境，同时采取非排名导向，聚焦问题查找与改革建议，避 免"逐底竞争"现象出现。报告 ...

德国总理默茨：如果基础设施信贷不能释放大量私人投资，我们就无法实现目标。 ...

Group 1: Conflict Overview - The India-Pakistan conflict escalated unexpectedly but ended with a comprehensive ceasefire agreement on May 10, 2023, after intense military exchanges [1][3][4] - The ceasefire was announced by both countries' officials, with military communication established to facilitate the agreement [3][4] - Despite the ceasefire, small-scale skirmishes continued in the border regions shortly after the announcement [3][4] Group 2: Military Actions - Prior to the ceasefire, India launched missile strikes on three military bases in Pakistan, marking a rare direct attack near the capital Islamabad [4][6] - In retaliation, Pakistan initiated a military operation targeting over 20 Indian military sites and claimed to disrupt 70% of India's power grid, although this was later contested [6][10] - The military actions and subsequent ceasefire negotiations highlight the precarious balance of power and the potential for escalation between the two nuclear-armed nations [8][10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to both countries' economies, with potential negative impacts on Pakistan's growth and fiscal stability, especially after recent IMF support [10][11] - India's economic growth is also at risk, with projections indicating a decline from 8.2% to 6.4% in the upcoming fiscal year due to the conflict and other external factors [11] - The situation underscores the importance of economic stability as a deterrent against further military escalation, as both nations are at critical junctures in their economic development [10][11] Group 4: Diplomatic Efforts - Multiple countries, including China and Saudi Arabia, are involved in diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict, emphasizing the international community's interest in regional stability [8][10] - The involvement of over 30 countries in diplomatic negotiations indicates a broad recognition of the potential consequences of a prolonged conflict between two nuclear powers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The future downward and upward pressures on the U.S. economy's internal demand are identified, with downward pressures stemming from tariffs, wealth effect deterioration, and potential financial market contagion, while upward pressures are linked to private investment and Fed rate cuts [2][12]. Group 1: Tariffs as a Downward Uncertainty Source - Tariffs are the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturns, significantly impacting U.S. import demand and consequently global trade [4][14]. - The U.S. accounts for 16% of global imports (excluding intra-EU trade) and approximately one-third of global final consumption goods imports, indicating its critical role in global trade dynamics [4][14]. - A negative growth of over 5% in U.S. import growth could exert substantial pressure on the global economy, necessitating close monitoring of the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports [4][19]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect of U.S. residents is highly sensitive to stock market performance, with a potential decline in consumer spending resilience if the stock market continues to fall [6][26]. - A 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq index in Q1 2024 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%, with further declines potentially exacerbating this effect [6][26]. - The outlook for disposable cash flow is bleak, with a projected 4.5% year-on-year increase in wage income for 2025, slightly below 2024's 4.8% [7][30]. Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market is currently facing multiple risks, including liquidity issues and high leverage, which could amplify market volatility and impact the economic fundamentals [8][36]. - Political uncertainties, such as tariffs, may further exacerbate financial market fluctuations, posing additional risks to economic growth [8][36]. Group 4: Private Investment as an Upward Risk - Following the Fed's rate cuts, real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years, typically leading economic recovery [9][40]. - Major U.S. tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with a 19% upward revision in 2025 capital spending expectations compared to earlier forecasts [9][46].