在分析近期价格波动的内在逻辑时，相关研究员认为，避险溢价的收缩是金价回调的重要诱因。尽管中 东地区仍有航母部署及军事演习，但由于美伊谈判在日内瓦达成了"指导原则"共识，此前紧绷的地缘溢 价迅速消退。这种情绪的转变使得黄金作为避险资产的吸引力在短期内让位于走强的美元资产。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离场的情况，反映出全行业对未来流动性紧 缩风险的防御性布局。 除了地缘因素的稀释，市场正屏息关注美联储（Fed）即将释放的政策信号。相关分析认为，美联储 1 月会议纪要及周五公布的 PCE 物价指数将直接揭示 2026 年上半年降息的节奏。此外，由于新一任美联 储主席提名人选被市场视为非鸽派立场，这种政策偏好的转变加剧了金属市场的焦虑情绪。相关数据显 示，除了贵金属，期铜等工业金属持仓也出现了高净值客户离 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw continues, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is influenced by the stock market, risk preference adjustment, Fed rate cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. It oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short-term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - Due to the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are fluctuating. Traders are advised to focus on the decline of the 2512 basis. For hedging, considering the medium-term adjustment pressure, short positions can use far-month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month-on-month increase and 0.00% year-on-year change, while China's PPI (monthly) has a -0.20% month-on-month and -3.60% year-on-year change [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 trillion yuan increase and a 0.24% growth rate; M2 year-on-year is 8.80%, up 0.50% with a 6.02% growth rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, up 0.10% with a 0.20% growth rate [9]. - Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index is 98.29, up 0.13 with a 0.13% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1406, down 0.004 with a -0.05% change; SHIBOR 7-day is 1.44, up 0.00 with a 0.28% growth rate; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 with a 0.51% growth rate; R007 is 1.67, down 0.26 with a -13.67% change; the 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.55, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate; the AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the closing price trends, price changes, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios, long-short positions ratios, spreads between government bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts [12][13][16]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Charts show the trading statistics of interbank pledged repurchase and local government bond issuance [25]. 4. Spread Overview - Charts present the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures, and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][35][36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][46][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [51][55]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts present the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [58][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [65][71].