Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - Multiple regulatory indicators form the "fence" for banks' allocation behavior, and banks' "choices" within these fences determine their asset allocation structure [1][3][24] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fence Within: How Regulatory Constraints Determine Banks' Bond Market Choices - **"Ballast Stone" Status of Bank Allocation in the Bond Market**: As the main bond allocators in the bond market, commercial banks' "ballast stone" status is rooted in three logics: scale dominance, counter - cyclical characteristics, and stability under regulatory constraints. As of the end of February 2026, commercial banks' bond allocation in the inter - bank market was 82.16 trillion yuan, ranking first among various institutions, mainly investing in interest - rate bonds. Their counter - cyclical allocation provides a buffer for the market, and regulatory constraints make them natural buyers of interest - rate bonds [2][17][18] - **Commercial Bank Regulation: Macro - Prudential + Micro - Constraints**: Understanding banks' bond allocation behavior requires understanding their regulatory constraints, including the Macro - Prudential Assessment System (MPA), interest - rate risk indicators (ΔEVE/NII), liquidity risk indicators (LCR/NSFR), and capital adequacy ratio. These indicators form the "fence" for banks' allocation behavior [3][24] 2. Central Bank MPA: From Broad Credit to Bond Allocation - **Overview of MPA Indicator System**: MPA reshapes banks' bond - allocation behavior in three dimensions: total amount, structure, and timing. In terms of total amount, the broad - credit growth constraint makes bond investment a "regulatory item" after loan issuance. Structurally, capital - adequacy pressure forces banks' self - operated funds to concentrate on interest - rate bonds with zero risk - weight. Temporally, liquidity assessment indicators create a rigid "quarter - end effect". Under these constraints, banks' self - operated bond - allocation behavior shows characteristics of "quota restricted by credit, concentration on interest - rate bonds, and rhythm restricted by quarter - ends" [4][29] - **Three Transmission Paths of MPA on Banks' Bond Allocation**: - **Broad - Credit Growth Constraint → Limited Bond Allocation Quota**: The upper limit of broad - credit growth locks the growth rate of bond investment, squeezing out bond allocation when loan growth is fast, especially at quarter - ends [32][33] - **Capital - Adequacy Constraint → Decreased Risk Appetite + Increased Supply of Capital Instruments**: To meet capital - adequacy requirements, banks issue secondary - capital bonds and perpetual bonds and increase the allocation of low - capital - occupancy interest - rate bonds while reducing high - capital - occupancy credit bonds. In a period of strict capital regulation, the spread between interest - rate bonds and credit bonds tends to widen [34] - **Liquidity Indicator Constraint → Quarter - End Fund Pulse + Solidified Maturity Preference**: LCR assessment tightens the quarter - end capital market and releases concentrated demand for interest - rate bonds. NSFR constraint restricts banks from lending to non - bank institutions at quarter - ends, inhibits excessive maturity mismatch, and solidifies banks' preference for short - term bonds or long - term interest - rate bonds [35] 3. Triple Constraints of the Banking Risk Supervision System under the Financial Regulatory System - **Capital - Adequacy Constraint: Risk Weights Guide Allocation**: Capital - adequacy ratio is the core regulatory indicator. Risk weights determine the capital occupancy of bonds, and banks prefer bonds with lower risk weights. The investment priority of bond types is: treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds > local - government bonds > general - credit bonds, commercial - financial bonds > secondary - capital bonds > perpetual bonds. When capital adequacy is under pressure, banks compress high - weight assets, and the regulatory rating affects business qualifications and asset structure. Capital - supplement pressure increases the supply of capital instruments [37][44][45] - **Liquidity Risk Indicators: LCR and NSFR's "Rigid Demand" for High - Liquidity Assets**: The core goal of liquidity - risk supervision is to guide banks to match the maturity structure of assets and liabilities. LCR and NSFR are the two pillars. Different bonds have different conversion rates in HQLA and RSF coefficients, which affect banks' bond - type preferences. The comprehensive impact includes a significant quarter - end effect, solidified maturity preference, and structural differentiation [47][51][57] - **Interest - Rate Risk Supervision Indicators: How ΔEVE and ΔNII Constrain Allocation Maturity**: ΔEVE measures the maximum loss of the net present value of banks' assets and liabilities under different interest - rate shocks, and ΔNII measures the impact of interest - rate changes on net interest income. These two indicators jointly restrict large domestic banks' long - bond allocation. Banks tend to "buy short and sell long" to control bond maturity [58][59][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - To better understand banks' asset - liability allocation behavior and analyze its impact on the bond market, it is necessary to systematically sort out and split bank regulatory indicators. This report focuses on the regulatory requirements in the field of bank liquidity, including the development history of the domestic bank liquidity regulatory system, in - depth analysis of the composition of five regulatory indicators, and a comprehensive introduction of multiple liquidity monitoring indicators [3][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Liquidity Regulatory Indicators' Introduction and Evolution - After the 2007 - 2009 global financial crisis, Basel III proposed the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) in 2010 to strengthen short - term and medium - long - term liquidity constraints on banks. China's liquidity regulatory system has followed a path of "first monitoring, then regulation, and then systematic improvement". In 2006, liquidity monitoring indicators were proposed; in 2014, regulatory and monitoring indicators were implemented in parallel; in 2015, the content of regulatory indicators was adjusted and monitoring indicators were expanded; in 2018, the "Five regulatory indicators + multiple monitoring indicators" framework was established, and the monthly/quarterly reporting mechanism was clarified [8][21][22]. 3.2 Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) - **Calculation Formula**: LCR = Qualified High - Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA) / Net cash outflow in the next 30 days. The regulatory requirement is that the LCR level should not be less than 100% [9][27]. - **Composition and Calculation of the Numerator**: HQLA is divided into Level 1 assets and Level 2 (2A/2B) assets, calculated by asset × discount coefficient. There are restrictions on the proportion of Level 2 assets, and some special assets such as ordinary financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit are not included [29][30][31]. - **Composition and Calculation of the Denominator**: The denominator is calculated as ∑ expected cash outflows in the next 30 days × conversion rate - ∑ expected cash inflows in the next 30 days × conversion rate. There are also some calculation rules and special considerations [32][33]. 3.3 Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) - **Calculation Formula**: NSFR = Available stable funds / Required stable funds. The regulatory requirement is that the NSFR level should not be less than 100% [10][37]. - **Composition and Calculation of the Numerator**: Available stable funds are obtained by multiplying different types of liabilities and capital by corresponding conversion coefficients. Longer - term, more stable funds have higher coefficients [40]. - **Composition and Calculation of the Denominator**: Required stable funds reflect the occupation of stable funds by assets and off - balance - sheet items. Assets with shorter terms, better liquidity, and higher credit quality have lower coefficients [41]. - **Difference from LCR**: In terms of calculation methods, LCR can be simplified as asset/liability, while NSFR is liability/asset. In terms of regulatory logic, LCR focuses on short - term liquidity, and NSFR focuses on medium - long - term term structure [11][46][48]. 3.4 Other Three Liquidity Regulatory Indicators - **High - Quality Liquid Assets Adequacy Ratio (HQLAAR)**: Designed for small and medium - sized banks with total assets below 200 billion yuan, with a minimum regulatory standard of not less than 100%. It is similar to LCR but has simpler calculation rules [50]. - **Liquidity Matching Ratio (LMR)**: A structural indicator with Chinese characteristics, measuring the term configuration structure of banks' main assets and liabilities, with a minimum regulatory standard of not less than 100%. It is more sensitive to term structure changes compared to NSFR [53]. - **Liquidity Ratio (LR)**: One of the earliest and most common liquidity regulatory indicators, applicable to all commercial banks. It reflects the basic liquidity status under normal conditions, with a minimum regulatory standard of not less than 25% [54][56]. 3.5 Current Situation of Bank Liquidity Regulatory Indicators - **Overall Banking Industry**: The overall LR, LCR, and NSFR of the banking industry show a fluctuating upward trend. LCR generally declines quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter and rebounds in the fourth quarter. The disclosure of the overall NSFR of the banking industry started in the first quarter of 2024, and it has been improving since then [57]. - **By Bank Type**: All four types of banks meet the LCR requirements, but the buffer space of state - owned and joint - stock banks is significantly lower than that of city and rural commercial banks. The NSFR of joint - stock banks is under continuous pressure, and they are more motivated to adjust their asset - liability behavior to improve the NSFR at the end of the quarter [63][68]. 3.6 Liquidity Monitoring Indicators - These indicators are used for continuous observation, cross - verification, and forward - looking identification of banks' liquidity risk status. They do not have a unified hard - line standard but are important for auxiliary judgment. For example, the banking industry's overall loan - to - deposit ratio has been fluctuating upward and stabilized around 80% in 2024 and 2025, and the overall excess reserve ratio has a large fluctuation range, reaching 1.64% at the end of 2025 [73][76].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of deposit non-bankization, which is leading to a marginal decline in liquidity indicators for banks. This trend is particularly pronounced among large banks, with a notable increase in the proportion of non-bank deposits [12][16] - The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR) are critical indicators for banks, and the report provides quantitative assessments of how deposit non-bankization impacts these metrics. The effects are manageable for major banks, with LCR expected to remain above 120% even under significant conversion scenarios [4][34] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Non-Bankization and Liquidity Management - The process of deposit non-bankization is intensifying the demand for banks to manage liquidity indicators more stringently. Since May 2025, the growth rate of personal fixed deposits has been declining, with large banks showing a decrease in monthly increments compared to the same period in 2024 [12][16] - The report quantifies the impact of deposit non-bankization on LCR and NSFR for major banks, indicating that even with a 70% conversion of personal fixed deposits to non-bank deposits, the LCR for most large banks is expected to remain above 120% [4][34] 2. Liquidity Indicator Management - The management of LCR focuses on maintaining liquidity asset reserves, while NSFR management emphasizes improving the liability structure. Issuing long-term interbank certificates of deposit is highlighted as an effective method to optimize these liquidity indicators [5][22] - The report details how the conversion of personal fixed deposits to non-bank deposits affects various liquidity risk indicators, with specific calculations provided for LCR and NSFR under different conversion scenarios [18][23] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a tiered investment strategy: - Core holdings should focus on large state-owned banks, benefiting from institutions like Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Core allocations should include leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank - Flexible allocations can target regional banks like Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank [6][19]