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国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250608
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 07:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. There is 1 ship departing from New Zealand in June, expected to arrive in China in June, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.12 million cubic meters. The total inventory of the four major ports increased slightly by 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week. The BDI index rose by 15.2% week-on-week, and the SCFI index increased by 8.1%. The US dollar index was relatively stable, with the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB down by 0.1% and against the New Zealand dollar down by 0.9% week-on-week [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - Spot price: The price of 3.9m 30+ radiata pine in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu is 775 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9m 40+ radiata pine in Shandong is 810 yuan/cubic meter, and 5.9m 30+ radiata pine is 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market have low trading volume and are in short supply [4]. - Supply: As of June 1, there is 1 ship departing from New Zealand in June, with 1 going to the Chinese mainland and 0 to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. It is expected that 1 ship will arrive in June and 0 in July, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.12 million cubic meters [4][7]. - Demand and inventory: As of the week of May 30, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,800 cubic meters (week-on-week -2,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (week-on-week -100 cubic meters). The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 125,180 cubic meters (week-on-week +2,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 535,600 cubic meters (week-on-week -34,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 373,500 cubic meters (week-on-week -19,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 246,800 cubic meters (week-on-week +41,900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4077 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week [5][11]. - Other factors: As of the week of June 8, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,633 points, up 215 points (+15.2%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 600 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 2,240.35 points, up 8.1% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was relatively stable. As of the end of the week, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was down 0.1% and against the New Zealand dollar was down 0.9% from last week [5]. 2. Supply - As of June 1, there is 1 ship departing from New Zealand in June, with 1 going to the Chinese mainland and 0 to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. It is expected that 1 ship will arrive in June and 0 in July, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.12 million cubic meters [7]. 3. Demand and Inventory - Demand: As of the week of May 30, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,800 cubic meters (week-on-week -2,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (week-on-week -100 cubic meters). - Inventory: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 125,180 cubic meters (week-on-week +2,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 535,600 cubic meters (week-on-week -34,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 373,500 cubic meters (week-on-week -19,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 246,800 cubic meters (week-on-week +41,900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4077 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week [5][11]. 4. Market Trends - As of June 6, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 768.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.3% from last week. The futures price first fell and then rose this week, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 07 - 09 monthly spread at -16 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread at -20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread at -4.5 yuan/cubic meter [14]. 5. Price and Spread - Spot price: The prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from last week. For example, the price of 3.9m 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 775 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged [19]. - Regional spread: The document provides spread data between Shandong and Jiangsu for various tree species and specifications, such as the spread of 3.9m 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [19][24]. - Tree species and specification spread: It shows the spread between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9m 30+ radiata pine and 5.9m 40+ radiata pine [43][44]. 6. Other - Freight index: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,633 points, up 215 points (+15.2%) from last week. The Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 600 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 2,240.35 points, up 8.1% from last week. - Exchange rate: The US dollar index was relatively stable. As of the end of the week, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was down 0.1% and against the New Zealand dollar was down 0.9% from last week [5][56][57].
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250511
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 08:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with a slight decline in Shandong and stability in Jiangsu. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.19 million cubic meters in May. The demand and inventory situation varies among ports, with overall de - stocking in the four major ports. The futures market is in a weak and volatile state with a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quotes 770 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly from last week, and the Jiangsu market quotes 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 830 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 780 yuan/cubic meter, down 15 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4] - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all going to the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival of 1.19 million cubic meters [4][7] - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 0.1547 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] - As of the week of May 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1373 points, up 112 points (+8.9%) from last week, and its related sub - index BHSI is 568 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1347.84 points, down 1.7% from last week. The US dollar index rebounds, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.5% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.6% from last week [5][55] 2. Supply - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all headed for the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.19 million cubic meters [7] - Details of New Zealand log shipping schedules are provided, including departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters) [5][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2658 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 26,000 cubic meters, - 2.01%), Taicang Port is about 0.5515 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 80,700 cubic meters, - 12.76%), Xinminzhou is about 0.2746 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 47,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 0.2171 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 154,700 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] 4. Market Trends - As of May 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.3% from last week. The futures market continues to be weak and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern. The month - spread changes are small this week, with the 07 - 09 month - spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 month - spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 month - spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter [15] 5. Price and Spread - The spot price of logs and downstream construction timber shows different trends in different regions and specifications. Most prices remain stable compared to last week, with some showing slight decreases or increases over a four - week period [19][21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications of logs are presented graphically [22][23][28] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications of logs are also presented graphically [40][42][44] 6. Other - The freight index and exchange rate data are provided. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI), the Crude Oil Tanker Index (BDTI) show different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has a small change. The US dollar - RMB and US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rates also change [54][55]