1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week. The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were flat compared to last week, with a regional price difference of 10 yuan/cubic meter. Other specifications also showed no price changes [4]. - The market saw a low - level rebound in the futures market, and the port inventory decreased. As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 14, there were 20 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 7 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 5 in January, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.54 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 3,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2918 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 61,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 396,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 173,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 125,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9872 million cubic meters, a decrease of 125,500 cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow this week. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 4.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7.5 yuan/cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of December 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2023.00 points, a decrease of 182 points (- 8.3%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 746 points, a decrease of 7.3% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1552.92 points, an increase of 3.1% from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.042, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.9% to 1.737 [6][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply side of logs is under obvious pressure, with an expected increase in arrivals in October. The demand has not shown a significant improvement, and the orders of sawmills are relatively sluggish. The inventory is expected to fluctuate and accumulate under the condition of increased arrivals and stable demand. The cost side still provides support, and it is recommended to try to go long on the 01 contract at low prices, but pay attention to risk prevention. Short - term focus should be on downstream demand and the impact of freight and shipping capacity [7][9][17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - end**: In September 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.01%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was about 18.016 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.14%. The expected arrivals this week are expected to rebound, and the subsequent arrivals in October are still relatively concentrated [7] - **Demand and Inventory - end**: The demand has not shown a significant improvement, the orders of sawmills are relatively sluggish, and there are no concentrated large orders. The market confidence is weak. With the increase in arrivals this week and stable demand, the inventory is expected to fluctuate and accumulate [9] - **Price and Spread**: The spot price is relatively stable, and the spread is also relatively stable. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 790 - 800 yuan per cubic meter on the disk [11][13] - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost has increased, the import profit has shrunk, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a volatile state. As the off - season approaches, the import cost is expected to return [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot is stable, and the demand - side sawmill orders are relatively weak. The fundamentals are weakly volatile, and the downstream demand is stable. Try to go long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on downstream demand and the impact of freight and shipping capacity in the short term [17] Part 2: Log Balance Sheet - The log balance sheet shows the data of demand, supply, and inventory from June 2025 to October 2025, including daily average shipments, arrivals, arrival volumes, and total inventory, etc. [19] Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - end**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by tree species, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [25][27][30] - **Demand - end**: It includes the daily average shipment volume of logs, the real estate situation, and the downstream analysis of logs, such as the price and profit of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes. However, specific data details are not fully presented [34][36][41] - **Inventory - end**: It includes the summary of inventory, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but specific data details are not fully presented [58][60][66] Part 4: Cost and Profit - It includes the import cost and profit of logs and the delivery profit of logs, but specific data details are not fully presented [72][77] Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: It shows the outer - market quotations of radiata pine and spruce, and the price and spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce, as well as the basis between radiata pine and LG and the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of the LG main contract. However, specific data details are not fully presented [82][85][95]