□ 陈 柳 陈 柳 （作者为南京大学长江产业发展研究院副院长、研究员） 扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。外部环境的复杂性、严峻 性、不确定性明显上升，世界贸易组织（WTO）预测2026年全球货物贸易量增速为0.5%，大幅低于历 史平均水平，这加大了我国经济平稳运行的难度。 中央和江苏省委经济工作会议，都将内需放到今年经济工作的首要位置。扩大内需涵盖国内消费与投资 两大核心领域，挖掘内需潜力需精准发力消费与投资双维度。从消费角度看，提振消费专项行动从商品 和服务的高质量供给出发，更要从提升居民消费能力出发。近年来，消费对江苏经济增长贡献率持续稳 定在50%以上，消费总量处于全国领先位置。一方面，要继续在消费供给端清理不合理的限制措施，扩 大优质商品和服务供给。另一方面，扩大消费根本上要实施城乡居民增收计划，将此作为中长期规划持 之以恒、久久为功。同时，加强生育养育保障、医疗养老保障、教育支撑等力度，逐步改善居民消费预 期。 从投资角度看，内需主要包括民生投资、制造业投资、房地产投资等方面。江苏要用好中央关于专项债 券、"两重"项目等政策工具，强化重大项目的牵引带动作用，加强对 ...

Overview - The overall economic performance in November shows a slowdown, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Industrial value added increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% [1] - External demand remains resilient, but internal demand has significantly weakened, leading to a widening gap between industrial value added growth and investment and retail sales growth [1] - Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, while producer price index (PPI) inflation slightly declined to -2.2% [1] Structure - Consumer spending showed weakness, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Notably, retail sales of automobiles and home appliances saw significant declines of 8.3% and 19.4%, respectively [2] - Fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, with infrastructure investment down 11.9% and real estate investment plummeting by 30.3%. The decline in real estate is attributed to weak sales and financing pressures [3] - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, while imports rose by 1.9%. The growth in exports to emerging markets remains strong despite challenges in the U.S. market [4] Supply - Industrial production remained stable, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in industrial value added. High-tech industries saw a notable growth of 8.4% [5] - CPI inflation increased significantly due to seasonal factors, particularly in fresh vegetables, while PPI inflation showed a slight decline. The performance of various sectors varied, with some industries experiencing price increases while others faced declines [5] Conclusion - The economic growth rate for the year is expected to be around 5%, with a focus on sustainable policy adjustments to enhance economic recovery. The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide a stable foundation for economic growth [6]

What's New from Citi 2025 China Conference: Takeaways from Expert Speech on Economic and Policy Outlook CITI'S TAKE We hosted Professor Songcheng Sheng of CEIBS at Citi 2025 China Conference. Prof. Sheng welcomes the greater emphasis on consumption in the 15th Five-Year Plan and considers it a "pivot change". On the cyclical outlook, he thinks the Chinese economy could have bottomed, with the gap between nominal and real growth likely being closed. On monetary policy, there could be more room for RRR cut ra ...