研究报告 Research Report 25 Nov 2025 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 11 月成本报告：蔬菜和瓦楞纸显著涨价 November CGCI: Vegetables and Corrugated Paper Saw a Significant Price Surge | | | | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 7.90 | 21 | 20 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | | 15 | 14 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | | 15 | 14 | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | | 16 | 14 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | | 9 | 8 | | 优然牧业 | Outperform 5.50 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rise in packaging material prices and an increase in the beer spot cost index by 2.96% year-on-year, indicating upward pressure on costs in the consumer staples sector [1][35]. - The cost indices for six categories of consumer goods monitored by HTI mostly increased, with notable changes in spot and futures indices across beer, frozen food, soft drinks, instant noodles, dairy products, and condiments [35]. Summary by Category Beer - The beer spot cost index is at 116.32, down 0.06% from last week, while the futures index is at 115.68, up 1.2% [13]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.86%, and the futures index has decreased by 7.13% [14]. Condiments - The condiments spot cost index is at 100.51, down 0.1%, and the futures index is at 101.3, up 1.55% [17]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 2.66%, and the futures index has decreased by 7.47% [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy products spot cost index is at 101.25, down 0.13%, and the futures index is at 91.04, up 0.69% [20]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 2.89%, and the futures index has decreased by 3.28% [20]. Instant Noodles - The instant noodles spot cost index is at 103.62, down 0.23%, and the futures index is at 102.53, up 0.88% [23]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 2.29%, and the futures index has decreased by 5.47% [24]. Frozen Food - The frozen food spot cost index is at 120.39, up 1.02%, and the futures index is at 119.44, up 1.72% [28]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.17%, and the futures index has decreased by 1.35% [28]. Soft Drinks - The soft drinks spot cost index is at 109.39, up 0.22%, and the futures index is at 109.26, up 0.72% [31]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 3.04%, and the futures index has decreased by 9.54% [31].

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, indicating stability in the market. Spot cost indices for soft drinks, beer, instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, and seasonings changed by +0.97%, +0.51%, +0.26%, -0.13%, -0.44%, and -0.57% respectively, while futures cost indices changed by -1.08%, +1.06%, -1.06%, -1.67%, -0.78%, and -0.06% respectively [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have decreased by 3.71% and 4.95% respectively [12][32]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.41% and -6.71% respectively [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.67%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.36% and -3.93% respectively [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.26% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.23% and -6.06% respectively [22][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.44% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.78%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.3% and -3.37% respectively [25][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks rose by 0.97% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -4.19% and -10.86% respectively [28][37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including China Feihe, Huazhu, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight rebound in spot costs for essential consumer goods, with most indices showing an increase, while futures indices generally declined [35]. - The overall trend in the consumer goods sector reflects a mixed performance, with some categories experiencing cost increases while others face declines [8][35]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.39% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 6.06%. Year-to-date changes show a decline of 4.17% for spot and 6.16% for futures [36][13]. - Glass prices initially rose but later fell, with month-on-month changes of +0.3% for spot and -13.9% for futures [12]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.16% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 5.93%. Year-to-date changes are -1.76% for spot and -6.01% for futures [37]. - Domestic soybean prices have increased due to supply contraction, while imported soybeans remain weak [16]. Dairy - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.7% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.44%. Year-to-date changes are -3.2% for spot and -2.11% for futures [38]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.02 yuan/kg, with various factors contributing to price pressures [19]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 1.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2%. Year-to-date changes are -3.01% for spot and -4.21% for futures [39]. - Palm oil prices have risen, impacting overall costs [23]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 1.15% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.97%. Year-to-date changes are -1.83% for spot and -2.74% for futures [40]. - Vegetable prices have shown significant fluctuations due to seasonal demand [27]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 0.78% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 5.63%. Year-to-date changes are -4.99% for spot and -8.6% for futures [41]. - PET prices are stable to weak, reflecting changes in demand and inventory levels [31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Haidilao, Youran Dairy, Jiumaojiu, Modern Farming, Dasheng Holdings, Yihai International, Aoyou, and China Feihe, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in spot cost indices for six categories of consumer goods, while futures indices primarily increased [38]. - The spot cost indices for dairy products, soft drinks, frozen foods, beer, instant noodles, and condiments changed by -2.92%, -2.46%, -1.88%, -1.78%, -1.58%, and -1.29%, respectively, while the futures cost indices changed by -1.52%/+1.64%/-1.77%/+3.57%/+0.84%/+2.89% [38]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.78% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.57% [39]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have changed by -4.54% and -5.08%, respectively [39]. Seasonings - The spot cost index decreased by 1.29% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 2.89% [40]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have changed by -1.7% and -3.2%, respectively [40]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 2.92% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 1.52% [41]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have changed by -3.87% and -1.08%, respectively [41]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 1.58% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.84% [42]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have changed by -4.43% and -3.07%, respectively [42]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index decreased by 1.88% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 1.77% [43]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have changed by -2.95% and -3.6%, respectively [43]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 2.46% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.64% [44]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have changed by -5.91% and -5%, respectively [44].

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].