[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 赵瑞 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522120001 zhaorui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 9-Oct 19-Dec 28-Feb 10-May 20-Jul 29-Sep 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_Title] 食品饮料：存量时代的品牌突围路径 [Table_ReportDate] 食品饮料 | 行业深度报告 | 2025.10.10 核心观点 [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] [Table_OtherReport] 白酒把握估值修复，食品聚焦成长赛 道 政策定调积极，继续看好食饮板块 ⚫ 存量时代下的食品饮料投资逻辑。由于食品饮料主要子行业人均消费量 已经见顶，以及近年来商务需求承压、消费平替现象加深的背景下，酒 水及大众品的价格体系出现下沉趋势，食品饮料整体面临量价双重压 制，行业阶段性进入到存量时代。在存量环境下，食品饮料板块的投资 逻辑也较以往有所变化，部分行业龙头强化股东回报，较高的 ...

白酒市场面临多重挑战，包括线下零售盈利性不佳以及终端店库存压力大。例 如，一瓶茅台的利润仅为 50 至 80 元，五粮液为 50 至 70 元，而剑南春则为 食饮-中秋国庆渠道跟踪总结 20251007 摘要 商务和礼品需求下降，大众消费成主要驱动，白酒、大闸蟹、月饼等受 影响。2025 年中秋月饼销售不佳反映商务需求疲软。 线上渠道占比提升，2024 年白酒线上消费约 15%，预计 2025 年达 20%，茅台等品牌线上销售占比或超 30%在重要节点。 白酒市场面临线下零售盈利难、库存压力大等挑战。茅台利润仅 50-80 元，经销商减少备货，线上分流线下销售。 中秋期间飞天茅台动销好于预期，上海、浙江、苏南及华东地区表现良 好，总体动销量下降约 10%-20%。 东部白酒市场稳定，中西部增长乏力，陕西、山西下滑。飞天茅台大众 需求增加，价格敏感度高，线上销售提升，价格触底。 2025 年中秋白酒市场符合预期，江苏超预期。双节动销总量同比降 15%-20%，优于其他品类，大众宴席预定提升，商务宴请下降。 高端白酒市场在华东区域表现良好，茅台终端动销增长约 20%，五粮液 反馈积极，经济活跃地区各价位白酒均有改 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS initiates coverage on Haitian Flavor Industry (603288) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 40, reflecting a projected P/E ratio of 31x and 29x for the next two years [1] Company Summary - Haitian is considered the most competitive premium enterprise in the seasoning industry, with potential for long-term stable growth [1] - From 2009 to 2019, the company benefited from rapid growth in the catering industry and consumption upgrades, achieving a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% in revenue and 22% in net profit [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow down to 6% in revenue and 3% in net profit from 2019 to 2024 [1] - Starting in 2024, the company is anticipated to gradually emerge from a low point, demonstrating resilience during industry fluctuations [1] - The company is expected to solidify its market position through continuous product optimization and channel refinement [1] - For the period of 2024-2027, the company is projected to achieve a CAGR of 7% in revenue and 10% in net profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS initiates coverage on Haitian Flavor Industry (03288) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 40, implying a forecasted P/E ratio of 31x and 29x for the next two years [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Haitian Flavor has demonstrated strong revenue and net profit growth rates of 16% and 22% respectively from 2009 to 2019, benefiting from rapid growth in the restaurant industry and consumption upgrades [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow down to 6% for revenue and 3% for net profit from 2019 to 2024 [1] - The company is anticipated to gradually recover from a low point starting in 2024, showcasing its resilience during industry fluctuations [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that Haitian Flavor will solidify its market position and achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for revenue and 10% for net profit from 2024 to 2027 [1] - The company is focusing on continuous product optimization and channel refinement to maintain its leading position in the industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

研究报告 Research Report 30 Sep 2025 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 9 月成本报告：双节前成本指数波动较小 September CGCI: Cost indices fluctuated slightly before the Festivals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral 7.90 | 21 | 20 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | 15 | 14 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | 14 | 14 | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | 14 | 12 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | 8 | 8 | | 颐海国际 | Outperform 18 ...

Group 1: Mooncake Market Trends - The mooncake market is experiencing a surge in sales as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, with products like "月满九州" selling out quickly during live-streaming events [1] - Various universities and museums are launching themed mooncake gift boxes that incorporate cultural elements, transforming mooncakes into cultural symbols rather than just food [2][3] - Companies like Suzhou Daoxiangcun are innovating by collaborating with popular IPs and utilizing social marketing strategies to appeal to younger consumers [3] Group 2: Marketing Strategies in the Alcohol Industry - Alcohol brands are ramping up marketing efforts for the upcoming double festival, with promotions and discounts being a common strategy to boost sales [6][7] - Some brands, like Wuliangye, are adopting a more conservative approach to marketing, focusing on measurable outcomes rather than broad promotional campaigns [11] - Innovative marketing tactics, such as partnerships with social media platforms and immersive experiences, are being employed to enhance consumer engagement and brand loyalty [9][10] Group 3: Broader Consumer Trends - The demand for seasonal gifts, such as hairy crabs and plant-based beverages, is rising, with brands leveraging unique promotions to attract consumers [12][14] - Companies are increasingly focusing on creating memorable consumer experiences and emotional connections rather than relying solely on price reductions [5][14] - The integration of cultural elements into marketing campaigns is becoming a key strategy for brands to resonate with consumers during festive seasons [14]

天眼查App显示，近日，宁夏纳谷食品科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为陈海涛，注册资本500万人民 币，经营范围为许可项目：食品生产；豆制品制造；饮料生产；调味品生产；食品销售。（依法须经批 准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准） 一般项目：货物进出口；农副产品销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 动）。 ...

Core Points - The Lanzhou Market Supervision Administration conducted a food safety inspection from July to August 2025, focusing on various food categories including restaurant food, condiments, alcoholic beverages, grain products, meat products, snacks, convenience foods, beverages, and edible agricultural products [2][3][4] - A total of 58 batches of ordinary food were found to be non-compliant during the inspections, prompting regulatory actions such as halting production and sales, product recalls, and legal penalties against violators [2][3][4] Summary by Category Inspection Overview - The inspections were carried out in accordance with the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China and the Gansu Province food safety supervision and sampling plan [2] - The aim was to enhance food safety and protect consumer health [2] Non-compliance Findings - 58 batches of food products were identified as non-compliant during the inspection period [2][3] - The non-compliant products included various categories such as cakes, rice noodles, and condiments, with specific violations related to food safety standards [3][4] Regulatory Actions - The Market Supervision Administration has taken measures to control risks associated with the non-compliant products, including stopping production, removing products from shelves, and initiating recalls [2][3] - Consumers are encouraged to report any food safety issues by calling the complaint hotline 12315 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jinzi Ham is expanding into the semiconductor industry by investing up to 300 million yuan to acquire up to 20% of Zhongsheng Microelectronics, marking a strategic move to diversify beyond its traditional meat products business [1][3]. Group 1: Company Background and Strategic Moves - Jinzi Ham, primarily engaged in ham products and traditional meat products, has faced slow growth in its main business due to market factors, prompting the need for diversification [3]. - The investment in Zhongsheng Microelectronics is the first major capital action under the new control of Zheng Qingsheng, who became the controlling shareholder in June 2023 [1][7]. - The company has a history of cross-industry investments, including ventures into rare earths, internet finance, new energy vehicles, and healthcare, although past attempts have not significantly boosted performance [6][7]. Group 2: Investment Details and Market Context - The investment will occur in two rounds, with the first round involving a 100 million yuan capital increase based on a pre-investment valuation of Zhongsheng Microelectronics between 1 billion and 1.3 billion yuan [4]. - Zhongsheng Microelectronics, founded in 2019, focuses on high-speed optical module core chips and has been recognized in the "China Future Unicorn TOP 100" list for 2024 and 2025, although it has yet to achieve profitability [3][4]. - The optical module chip market is expected to grow rapidly due to the global AI data center construction wave, presenting a potential opportunity for Jinzi Ham to benefit from technological advancements [8]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - There are concerns regarding the high valuation of Zhongsheng Microelectronics, with a potential increase of 9710% based on the lowest valuation, which may lead to risks of impairment in long-term equity investments [4]. - Jinzi Ham's management may face challenges in technical accumulation and management capabilities in the semiconductor sector, which could impact the success of this investment [4][5]. - The company's previous cross-industry investments have not yielded significant results, raising questions about the effectiveness of this new strategy [6][7].