Core Viewpoint - The key issue in resolving the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period lies in distribution, necessitating significant breakthroughs in optimizing the distribution structure [2] Group 1: Distribution and Economic Growth - The supply structure is a function of the demand structure, which in turn is a function of the income structure; a low proportion of resident income in national income leads to low consumption rates [2] - Optimizing the distribution structure is crucial for comprehensive development and common prosperity, as well as for increasing the resident consumption rate and maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests implementing a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents, effectively raising the income of low-income groups and steadily expanding the middle-income group [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Policies should gradually shift from stimulating consumption to adjusting income distribution, including raising minimum wage standards and increasing ordinary employees' wages [3] - The focus of redistribution should be on enhancing the income of low-income groups through increased taxation, social security, and transfer payments, aiming for a faster growth rate of per capita disposable income than economic growth [3] Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - Economic growth should maintain an average annual growth rate of 4.17% from 2025 to 2035, with a target of achieving per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [3] - The expected growth rate for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is around 4.5%, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is projected at 4%, leading to an average of approximately 4.2% over the decade [4] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The nominal growth rate must remain above 4.5%, as nominal growth has been lower than actual growth since 2023, with a negative GDP deflator index [4] - The growth of urban resident income, corporate profits, and fiscal revenue has been lower than economic growth, exacerbating the issue of insufficient domestic demand [4] - The macroeconomic regulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period must prioritize promoting price recovery as a key objective [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that resolving the supply-demand imbalance during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period hinges on optimizing the distribution structure, which is crucial for enhancing residents' disposable income and sustaining economic growth within a reasonable range [2][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests implementing a rural and urban resident income increase plan aimed at effectively raising the income of low-income groups and steadily expanding the middle-income group, while also addressing excessive incomes and illegal earnings to promote an olive-shaped distribution pattern [2][4] - The article highlights that policies should not only focus on expanding demand and optimizing supply but also on improving distribution, creating a cohesive system of supply, demand, and distribution policies to foster a consumption-driven economic development model [2][3] Group 2 - It is proposed that consumption-stimulating policies should gradually shift towards income distribution adjustment policies, including raising minimum wage standards and enhancing ordinary employees' wages, while increasing the intensity of tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost low-income groups' income [3][4] - Economic growth is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 4.17% from 2025 to 2035, with a target of 4.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and 4% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to an average of approximately 4.2% over the decade [5][6] - The article stresses the importance of nominal growth remaining above 4.5%, as since 2023, nominal growth in China has been lower than actual growth, which has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand and contributed to insufficient domestic demand [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd China M&A Annual Conference emphasizes the importance of ensuring reasonable economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, promoting a consumption-driven economic model, and improving the income distribution system [1][3][13]. Group 1: Economic Growth - The goal for the 14th Five-Year Plan is to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range, with an average GDP growth rate of 4.17% required to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000 by 2035 [4][14]. - In 2024, China's per capita GDP is expected to approach $13,500, indicating a need for sustained growth to meet future targets [4][14]. - The focus should be on both actual and nominal growth, ensuring that nominal growth remains within a reasonable range to support increases in resident income, tax revenue, and corporate profits [5][15]. Group 2: Consumption-Driven Economic Model - The transition to a consumption-driven economic model is essential, as the current economic structure shows a decline in the contribution of domestic demand to growth, which was 71% in the first three quarters of the year [7][18]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to growth has increased, while the contributions from real estate, finance, and construction have significantly decreased [7][17]. - The need to enhance the quality of production and shift towards innovation-driven growth is highlighted as a key factor in achieving sustainable economic development [6][16]. Group 3: Income Distribution System - The income distribution system requires urgent improvement, as the share of resident income in national income has been declining since the 1990s, leading to increased income inequality [9][19]. - Policies should focus on increasing minimum wage standards and enhancing the income of ordinary workers to align initial distribution with economic growth [9][19]. - The implementation of a "rural and urban resident income increase plan" is proposed to effectively raise the disposable income of low-income groups, thereby boosting overall consumption [9][19].