罗志恒在年会演讲中进一步指出，"十五五"时期要明显提高居民消费率，扩大消费、扩大内需不是权宜 之计，而是事关经济发展模式转型的战略之举。从理念上看，应充分认识到消费是经济发展的目的和结 果，而非单纯的政策工具，其根本目标在于持续增进民生福祉，不能简单将消费工具化。 "十五五"时期如何明显提高居民消费率？ 罗志恒认为，可从以下五个方面系统推进：第一，优化消费环境，形成多方合力。提振消费不仅是居民 的单一行为，更是政府、企业与居民协同推进的结果。应通过更优的消费环境、更高质量的商品和服 务，释放消费需求、提升消费能力。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 "预计2026年居民消费有望边际回暖。随着育儿、养老等领域补贴政策逐步落地，叠加股市上涨带来的 财富效应，居民预防性储蓄倾向有望边际缓解。同时，服务消费或将接力商品消费，成为新的主要增长 动力。"12月16日，粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒在"国是论坛2025年会"期间接受《中国 经营报》记者独家采访时表示。 围绕"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规 划的建议》提出，要推动居民消费率明显提高。 公开资料显示，居 ...

非常高兴再次参加中国并购年会。在海南自贸港即将封关运行、扬帆起航之际，第22届中国并购年会在 海南举办，推动民营企业在海南自贸港建设中发挥更大作用，具有重大意义。民营企业一定会在海南自 贸港建设中发挥更大作用。海南自贸港建设也一定会有力推动海南经济社会的全面跃升，一定会推动我 国制度型开放、自主开放迈出更大步伐。 专题：2025（第二十二届）中国并购年会 来源：全联并购公会 2025年11月28日下午，由全联并购公会主办、海南省内蒙古商会承办的"知名民营企业助力海南自贸港 高质量发展大会暨2025第二十二届中国并购年会"在海南海口隆重召开。十三届全国政协常委、经济委 员会副主任杨伟民在演讲中强调，"十五五"时期要确保经济增长保持在合理区间，促进形成更多由内需 主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式，并加快完善收入分配制度。现将主旨演讲全文分享如下： 党的二十届四中全会通过的"十五五"规划建议系统部署了"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展的方向和重 点。下面，我谈点学习体会，题目是"十五五"时期，要确保经济增长在合理区间，形成消费拉动的经济 发展模式，完善收入分配制度。题目有点长，但是逻辑所需，三句话是有逻辑的。确保 ...

Core Points - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the income distribution system to ensure that hard workers, skilled individuals, and innovators receive more rewards, aligning with the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][5][9] - The report highlights the steady growth of residents' disposable income, with a projected average of 41,314 yuan in 2024, reflecting a real annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024 [1][2] - The article discusses the strategic significance of income distribution reform in promoting common prosperity, fostering new productive forces, and establishing a new development pattern [2][3] Group 1: Income Distribution Mechanism - The article outlines the need for a coordinated system of primary distribution, redistribution, and third distribution to effectively adjust high incomes and increase low-income earners' earnings [2][3] - It stresses that the income distribution system should allow various production factors to participate in distribution based on their contributions, thereby recognizing the value of human capital [2][7][10] Group 2: Encouraging Hard Work and Skills - The concept of "more for more work" is highlighted, where employers set wage standards based on labor time, workload, and contributions, ensuring that diligent workers receive appropriate compensation [6][9] - The article notes that there are over 220 million skilled workers in China, with more than 72 million being high-skilled, emphasizing the need to enhance their compensation and social status [6][9] Group 3: Innovation Incentives - The article points out that innovation is crucial for economic development, with a focus on the need for a system that rewards innovators adequately, especially in high-risk fields like AI and digital economy [7][8] - It mentions that as of June this year, China has reached an average of 15.3 high-value invention patents per 10,000 people, indicating a strong emphasis on innovation [7][8] Group 4: Policy and Practice - The article discusses various policies and practices that have been implemented to support the three groups of "more for more," including the issuance of guidelines for skill talent compensation and the promotion of collective wage negotiations [9][10] - It highlights the importance of creating a fair competitive market environment and enhancing regulatory measures to ensure that contributions are evaluated and rewarded appropriately [10]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for qualitative and effective economic growth, promoting comprehensive human development and common prosperity, ensuring decisive progress towards socialist modernization [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The plan highlights the importance of forming an economic development model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth, which is a strategic decision for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][10]. - A significant focus is placed on improving the income distribution system to support a consumption-driven growth model, which is crucial for achieving modernization in the Chinese context [3][11]. - The plan sets a target for per capita GDP to reach approximately $23,000 by 2035, requiring an average nominal growth of around 5% annually over the next decade [4]. Group 2: Principles for Economic and Social Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines six essential principles for economic and social development, including the necessity of the Party's comprehensive leadership, which is fundamental for achieving modernization [7][8]. - Emphasizing a people-centered approach, the plan aims to meet the growing needs of the populace while expanding development opportunities [7]. - High-quality development is identified as the primary task, focusing on innovation-driven growth and enhancing domestic consumption [8]. Group 3: Income Distribution and Employment - The plan stresses the importance of fair income distribution and increasing residents' income as a prerequisite for expanding consumption and meeting the people's needs [11][12]. - New policies are proposed to create an employment-friendly development model, ensuring that income growth aligns with economic growth [11]. - The introduction of a "Rural and Urban Residents' Income Increase Plan" is highlighted as a significant initiative to enhance the financial well-being of the population [12].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the middle-income group is a crucial policy goal for achieving common prosperity in China, as emphasized by President Xi Jinping. The focus is on optimizing income distribution and increasing the size of the middle-income group as part of the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2][9]. Group 1: Importance of Expanding the Middle-Income Group - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for maintaining social harmony and stability, reflecting a country's economic strength and social conditions [2][3]. - A larger middle-income group contributes to a more stable society, as this demographic typically enjoys stable jobs and decent incomes, leading to a higher sense of security and satisfaction [3][4]. - The transition from a middle-income to a high-income country is facilitated by the expansion of the middle-income group, which can stimulate domestic demand and promote sustained economic growth [4][5]. Group 2: Achievements and Current Status - China has over 400 million people in the middle-income group, supported by continuous economic growth and improvements in income distribution [5][7]. - The country aims to increase the middle-income group to over 800 million within the next 15 years, which presents significant challenges, particularly in rural areas where income levels remain low [8][9]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Strategies - The government is implementing various policies to enhance the income distribution system, ensuring that economic growth benefits all citizens more equitably [12][14]. - Emphasis is placed on improving public services and employment opportunities, particularly for vulnerable groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers [11][13]. - The development of the private economy is crucial for job creation and income growth, with policies aimed at fostering a fair and transparent business environment [14].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes achieving significant results in "high-quality development" as a primary goal for China's economic growth during this period [4][6]. Economic Growth and Investment - Economists suggest that China should maintain an average economic growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, considering the growth rates of capital accumulation, human capital investment, and technological progress [1][10]. - The government aims to expand effective investment, particularly in major strategic projects and key areas, to ensure reasonable growth in investment and improve investment efficiency [10][11]. Fiscal Policy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of sustainable fiscal policy, with total government debt projected at 92.6 trillion yuan, representing a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, which is significantly lower than that of the US and G7 countries [7][8]. - The sustainability of fiscal policy is crucial, with the need to maintain a balance between economic growth and interest rates to ensure the government can meet its debt obligations [8]. Consumption and Demand - The plan mentions consumption 23 times, indicating a strong focus on boosting consumer demand, with suggestions for measures such as subsidies, tax reductions, and social security reforms to stimulate consumption [15][16]. - However, it is noted that increasing consumption rates do not necessarily correlate with improved social welfare, and higher investment rates are linked to higher economic growth [15][17]. Infrastructure Investment - The plan emphasizes the role of infrastructure investment in stimulating economic growth and consumer demand, suggesting that increasing infrastructure investment is essential for achieving the 5% economic growth target [19][20]. - The government is encouraged to raise the deficit ratio to support infrastructure projects, which can create a positive cycle of income and consumption growth [9][19]. Income Distribution - The plan proposes improving the income distribution system to increase the share of residents' income in national income distribution, which is deemed necessary for addressing income inequality and enhancing consumption [20].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction, technological self-reliance, and high-quality development in real estate, indicating a shift in focus towards sustainable growth and innovation-driven development [1][3][20]. Economic Growth and Structure - The plan aims for a per capita GDP of approximately $25,000 by 2035, with current figures at $13,500, projected to exceed $14,000 this year [4][5]. - To achieve this goal, an average GDP growth rate of over 4.4% is necessary over the next decade [6]. - The focus is shifting from investment-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth, marking a significant structural change in the economy [11]. Regional Development - The plan highlights the need for optimized regional economic layouts and coordinated development, with major urban clusters like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area identified as key growth areas [12][13]. - The strategy aims to address regional disparities, particularly the widening gap between northern and southern regions [13]. High-Tech Industry Development - A goal to establish a new high-tech industry over the next decade is set, with a focus on strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace [14]. - The high-tech sector is expected to reshape industrial structures and urban competitiveness, with significant market potential in areas like electric vehicles and low-altitude economy [15][16]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is now positioned as a foundation for public welfare rather than a pillar of economic growth, indicating a transition from rapid expansion to quality development [20]. - Sales in the real estate market have declined significantly, with new and second-hand housing sales dropping from 1.93 billion square meters to 1.5 billion square meters since 2021 [22]. - The focus is shifting towards urban renewal rather than new construction, impacting land finance and necessitating new revenue sources for local governments [24]. Investment in Human Capital - The plan proposes measures to create a family-friendly society, including financial support for child-rearing and education, which may stimulate population growth [26][27]. - The expansion of free education is also highlighted, with a potential move towards 12 years of free education [27]. - Wage increases are anticipated, with recent adjustments to minimum wage standards across various provinces signaling a commitment to improving income distribution [29][31].

（37）促进高质量充分就业。深入实施就业优先战略，健全就业促进机制，构建就业友好型发展方式。加强产业和就业协同，积极培育新职业新岗位，支持企业稳岗扩岗。完善人力资源供需匹配机制，健全终身职业技能培训制度，强化择业和用人观念引导，着力解决结构性就业矛盾。完善就业支持和公共服务体系，稳定和扩大高校毕业生、农民工、退役军人等重点群体就业，推动灵活就业、新就业形态健康发展。加大创业支持力度，增强创业带动就业效应。完善劳动标准体系和劳动关系协商协调机制，加强劳动者权益保障，营造公平有序就业环境。完善就业影响评估和监测预警，综合应对外部环境变化和新技术发展对就业的影响。（38）完善收入分配制度。坚持按劳分配为主体、多种分配方式并存，提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重。健全各类要素由市场评价贡献、按贡献决定报酬的初次分配机制，促进多劳者多得、技高者多得、创新者多得。完善劳动者工资决定、合理增长、支付保障机制，推行工资集体协商制度，健全最低工资标准调整机制，加强企业工资分配宏观指导。多渠道增加城乡居民财产性收入。加强税收、社会保障、转移支付等再分配调节。促进和规范公益慈善事业发展。规范收入分配 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy and its strategic planning under the "Fifteen Plan" (十五规划), focusing on maintaining economic growth and addressing challenges in various sectors, particularly technology and real estate. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the "Fifteen Plan" is expected to be set above the potential growth rate, reflecting a commitment to maintaining necessary growth levels [3][4][6]. 2. **Role of Technology Innovation**: Technology innovation is emphasized as a core component of the "Fifteen Plan," with increased fiscal support directed towards enterprises and industries to enhance their innovative capabilities [4][5]. 3. **Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies**: The implementation of macroeconomic stabilization policies aims to reduce market volatility and provide greater certainty for capital markets, thereby boosting investor confidence [6][7]. 4. **Deflationary Pressures**: The Chinese economy is currently facing deflationary pressures, particularly in the manufacturing and export sectors. Solutions include enhancing pricing power through supply-side adjustments [7][8]. 5. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: The domestic market is under pressure, especially due to real estate issues and a slowdown in urbanization. Future urbanization efforts may focus on less developed regions to promote balanced development [8][9]. 6. **Unified National Market**: The establishment of a unified national market aims to address issues of chaotic low-price competition and promote positive price adjustments, which will support supply-side reforms [9][10]. 7. **Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth**: The fiscal policy for 2025 is designed to maintain a strong stance, with a nominal deficit rate of 4% and an actual deficit rate projected to remain around 10%, focusing on social welfare and transfer payments [10][11]. 8. **Employment Market Challenges**: The employment market faces challenges, particularly for low-skilled workers and recent graduates. Measures include subsidies for job stability and skills training [12][13]. 9. **International Trade Dynamics**: China's technology sector is expected to gain competitiveness, reducing reliance on U.S. trade, which enhances China's position in global trade dynamics [14][15][16]. 10. **Diversification of Trade Partners**: There is a trend towards diversifying trade partners, with increased trade with developing countries, particularly in Africa, to mitigate the impacts of changing U.S.-China trade relations [18]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of aligning fiscal policies with social needs and adjusting the central-local fiscal relationship to alleviate local financial pressures [11][12]. - The discussion on the semiconductor industry indicates that China is on track to become a major player in chip exports, reflecting significant advancements in technology [16][17]. - The strategic approach to U.S.-China relations emphasizes a balance between responding to U.S. actions and maintaining a stable economic environment [17][18].