Group 1 - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP in China has room for growth compared to developed countries, indicating future growth potential [1] - Consumption demand expansion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will stem from the upgrading of goods consumption and rapid growth in service consumption [1] - High-quality goods supply will lead consumption demand, with technological innovation creating new consumption scenarios and new consumption hotspots emerging from sectors like low-altitude economy [1] Group 2 - Service consumption is expected to exceed 50% of total consumption expenditure in the next five years, with a projected growth space of nearly 20 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - Current economic challenges include insufficient effective demand, with issues such as residents' unwillingness, inability, and lack of confidence in consumption [1] - The need for a systematic approach to expand domestic demand, integrating consumption, investment distribution, and circulation [2] Group 3 - Effective investment expansion faces challenges such as slowing investment growth and the need for improved investment efficiency [2] - The real estate market's deep adjustment and reduced land transfer income for local governments are constraining investment capabilities in infrastructure [2] - Short-term goals for expanding domestic demand should focus on addressing effective demand shortages and stabilizing economic growth [2] Group 4 - The low-altitude economy is seen as a new growth area, requiring enhanced infrastructure while ensuring effective investment [3] - Increasing residents' disposable income and enhancing their consumption share in total demand are crucial for boosting consumption [3] - A focus on improving fiscal spending on education, healthcare, and elderly care is necessary to alleviate residents' concerns and encourage consumption [3] Group 5 - Creating a favorable consumption environment requires technological and industrial innovation to enhance product quality and create new demand [4] - The service sector should be prioritized for consumption expansion, with efforts to reduce market entry barriers and optimize market regulation [4] - Promoting a unified national market and addressing disorderly competition will help create a conducive environment for expanding consumption demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in the commodity market following the Geneva joint statement between China and the U.S., driven by demand recovery expectations and supply contractions in certain products [1]. Group 1: Demand Marginal Tracking - The demand increase in the 90-day tariff suspension period is attributed to the shipment of previously delayed orders and U.S. companies' potential actions to "rush imports and transshipments" [2]. - The recent rise in U.S. shipping prices indicates an increase in orders, which will sustain strong demand in the near term [2]. - For complex goods, the delivery process may not see significant growth in demand during the tariff suspension, while shorter delivery cycle products like textiles and toys may show increased purchasing by U.S. companies [4][5]. Group 2: Profit and Supply Decision Adjustments - Short-term supply changes have a greater impact on price elasticity, with maintenance and operational issues in PX and PTA providing upward momentum for chemical products [9]. - The actual pace of production recovery is constrained by large manufacturers' maintenance plans and strategic supply adjustments, which create price support independent of demand [10]. - Despite potential for rapid production increases in the upstream supply chain, the lack of significant demand growth and previous low-profit periods may limit the willingness of leading manufacturers to increase output [13]. Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a significant risk, with a potential increase in tariffs by 54% if no agreement is reached within 90 days [16]. - The U.S. fiscal issues may necessitate a focus on revenue generation and spending cuts, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to higher retail prices that suppress consumer demand [16]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions may also impact inflation expectations and commodity prices [17]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals may experience short-term price corrections due to tariff and geopolitical tensions but are expected to return to their roles as a store of value in the medium term [23]. - Non-ferrous metals may face short-term demand limitations due to U.S. procurement decisions during the tariff suspension, but medium-term trends will be influenced by Federal Reserve policies [23]. - The energy sector faces supply and demand pressures, with OPEC's production increases and limited demand support affecting price stability [23].