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早盘直击|今日行情关注
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2026-03-06 02:07
恐慌情绪有所缓解,市场风格切换至科技成长。 周四恐慌情绪有所缓解,对中东局势的担忧通过两个交易日的调整后已经得到一定程度释放,A股迎 来超跌反弹。其中近期领跌的科创板指数领涨市场,而石油石化板块则连续第二个交易日出现回调。目前霍尔木兹海峡的油运通道依然存在较大不确定 性,由此导致原油、美元等避险品种价格依然维持上涨趋势,市场风险偏好能否出现持续回升仍然取决于中东局势是否能出现实质性缓和。 后市展望: 中东局势存在较大不确定性,原油价格走势或将影响短期市场节奏。中东局势目前存在较大不确定性,其对全球原油市场的供给将形成 多大冲击,以及冲击将延续多长时间目前均较难判断。若原油价格在此期间出现大幅上涨,则容易诱发市场对该事件的担忧,同时对A股板块轮动也将形 成明显影响。石油化工板块的持续强势将对科技成长板块的偏好形成压制,导致指数依然维持缓慢上行的节奏,但个股表现却明显弱于大盘。但从中长期 而言,A股震荡上行的趋势依然没有发生变化,居民储蓄入市以及A股上市公司业绩出现回升仍然是中期行情的两大支撑因素。 热点板块: 3月进入年报季,关注业绩高景气板块。3月即将进入年报季,业绩高景气方向将成为市场关注焦点。从年报预告披 ...
国泰海通 · 晨报0618|策略、机械
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-17 15:09
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for China's stock market, highlighting the emergence of new technology trends and business models, a decrease in opportunity costs for stock investments, and improved economic policies that favor investor returns. This creates a favorable environment for thematic investments, particularly in frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and structural improvements, with a focus on investment opportunities for the second half of 2025 [1][6][11]. Group 1: Frontier Technologies - Theme 1: AI and Embodied Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is expected to follow a path of "information infrastructure construction," "basic software deployment," "online application explosion," and "restructuring offline industries," with AI becoming a key catalyst for commercialization and increasing demand for computing power [2]. - The application of embodied intelligence is accelerating in fields such as research, education, and healthcare, with a focus on specific robotic products like quadrupedal and exoskeleton robots [2]. - Theme 2: Bioeconomy and Brain-Machine Interfaces - Biotechnology is rapidly advancing, enabling traditional industries to upgrade, with synthetic biology and information crossover technologies opening new spaces in the bioeconomy [3]. - The brain-machine interface industry is in the exploratory phase, with several tech companies attempting breakthroughs in hardware and applications [3]. - Theme 3: 6G Communication - 6G technology is set to revolutionize communication with significant improvements in speed and latency, with research expected to start in 2025 and commercial systems planned for 2030 [4]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Theme 4: Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with market size expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the establishment of non-controlled airspace and operational certifications [7]. - The commercial space sector is anticipated to see significant growth due to the increasing demand for satellite launches and the development of satellite constellations [7]. - Theme 5: Deep-sea Technology - The government has prioritized deep-sea technology, with policies accelerating the industrialization process and a projected marine production value exceeding ten trillion yuan by 2024 [8]. - Theme 6: Self-sufficiency - The semiconductor sector is becoming a focal point in the technology competition, with policies promoting mergers and acquisitions to deepen domestic replacements [9]. Group 3: Structural Improvements - Theme 7: Smart Driving - The penetration of advanced smart driving technologies is accelerating, with significant cost reductions expected in related hardware due to scale effects from companies like BYD [10]. - Theme 8: New Consumption Brands - The consumption recovery is showing a "K-shaped" divergence, with traditional consumption under pressure while new consumption is thriving, driven by digital economy and infrastructure changes [12]. - Theme 9: Price Cycle Products - Some cyclical industries are beginning to reduce capacity, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics leading to price recoveries in related sectors [13]. - Theme 10: Regional Economy - There is an increasing urgency to address regional development imbalances, with accelerated investment in western infrastructure and supportive policies for local industries [14].