交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 3 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为75407元/吨，日环比减少0.03%,生产所得为-2927元/吨，有所亏 损；外购锂云母成本为78268元/吨，日环比减少0.58%,生产所得为-7776元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生 产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31745元/吨，盐湖端成本显著 低于矿石端，盈利空间充 ...

碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月30日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加1.75%,2025 年8月碳酸锂进口量为21847实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比减少10.74%。需求端，预 计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同 期平均水平，供需格局转向 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企 业库存为17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加 1.75%,2025年8月碳酸锂进口量为21847实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比减少 10.74%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日 度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转向 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 利多：成本上行支撑，厂家停减产计划。 利空：节后需求复苏迟缓；下游多晶硅供强需弱 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 2万吨 环比有所增加2 ， | | 22% 。 . | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | | 环比增长2 56% ， . . | | 需求有所抬升 | 多 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is slow, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to be stable in the medium - term, demand is gradually recovering, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [6][8][10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost support and inventory levels affecting the market [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease. The inventory of polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy ingots is at different levels, with silicone and aluminum alloy ingots at high levels [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season, with a production loss of 3237 yuan/ton for sample oxygen - passing 553 [6]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 195 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased, which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule is increasing, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035 [8]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase. The demand side shows that the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different changes, and the current production of silicon wafers is in a loss state [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Although the production is increasing, it is currently in a loss state [10]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 605 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase, at a low level in the same period, which is neutral [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule will decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is stable. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Inventory increased, and production and some regions' operating rates also changed [16]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed, and the export of photovoltaic cells increased [18]. 3.4 Price and Basis Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [20]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the trends of the disk price and the basis of the main contract [23]. 3.5 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory in various regions and warehouses increased. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also changed [16][26][28]. - **Polysilicon**: The total inventory increased, and the production and operating rates of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [10][18]. 3.6 Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry is shown [62]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon [65]. 3.8 Downstream Market Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Analyzes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [52][55][57]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and related accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry [62][68][71].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing an unusual pricing cycle characterized by "off-season price increases and peak-season promotions," deviating from the traditional pattern of "off-season promotions and peak-season price increases" [1][4]. Group 1: Pricing Dynamics - In September 2025, polyester factories saw an average sales rate of 186.4% for polyester filament, with some factories reaching as high as 400% due to strong promotional policies [1]. - The price of PTA increased by 18% in a single month during the off-season due to maintenance shutdowns of several domestic PTA facilities, leading to a rise in polyester product prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a structural mismatch in capacity, where companies over-expand during peak seasons, resulting in excess supply, while reducing production during off-seasons due to inventory concerns, creating conditions for price increases [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Demand - The disconnect between market expectations and actual demand is a core reason for the current pricing anomaly, with external factors like geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pushing up raw material costs [4][5]. - The cautious purchasing behavior of downstream weaving enterprises has led to a situation where they prefer "just-in-time" procurement rather than stockpiling, increasing uncertainty in production plans [7][9]. - The phenomenon of "off-season price increases" reflects a strong demand that exceeds expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The frequent price fluctuations disrupt normal production schedules and hinder the establishment of a stable pricing system, leading to a vicious cycle of "wait-and-see—demand—shrinkage—promotion—more waiting" [7][9]. - The profit distribution within the polyester industry is severely imbalanced, with upstream raw material producers benefiting from price increases while polyester manufacturers struggle with low margins [9][10]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises face significant challenges due to their limited ability to withstand price wars and cash flow pressures, exacerbated by the current pricing dynamics [10][11]. Group 4: Solutions and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that breaking the current pricing cycle requires rebuilding trust between upstream and downstream players, moving from a "zero-sum game" mentality to a collaborative ecosystem [11][12]. - Addressing structural overcapacity on the supply side and actively exploring new market demands on the demand side are crucial for stabilizing the industry [12][13]. - The focus should shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological innovation and optimizing capacity structures to escape reliance on promotions [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and relatively weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [8][9][13]. - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, also with losses. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,311 yuan/ton, a 0.33% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,227 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 7,245 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased slightly. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.41% to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.42% to 70,900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The import volume decreased by 21.77% to 13,845.31 tons [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain upward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also had corresponding changes. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly by 34.73% to 576,138 tons [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the domestic lithium ore market, with shortages in most months [29]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend, and the production capacity also increased. The monthly output in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [32]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume decreased, and the export volume was relatively small. The monthly import volume in August was 17,000 tons [32][39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with shortages in some months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The monthly output in August 2025 was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease from the previous month [19]. - **Export and Import**: The export volume decreased significantly, and the import volume was relatively small [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with shortages in some months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica was relatively high, resulting in losses in production. The cost - profit situation of different recycling materials also varied [48][50]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing costs of lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased, and the profit of lithium carbonate purification and other processing links also changed [48][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 1.12% week - on - week decrease to 138,512 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other parties increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed certain changes, with the monthly inventory of downstream and smelters having corresponding fluctuations [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Cost**: The prices of some lithium batteries increased slightly, and the cost of battery cells also changed [59]. - **Production and Sales**: The monthly output and sales volume of lithium batteries increased, and the export volume also showed an upward trend [59]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types of batteries [61]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary precursor decreased [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors increased, and the capacity utilization rate also showed corresponding changes [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with shortages in some months [67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary material decreased [70]. - **Production and Export - Import**: The production of ternary materials increased, and the export and import volumes also had corresponding changes [70][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of iron phosphate lithium increased [74]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly output of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased, and the export volume of iron phosphate lithium also increased significantly [74][77]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles increased. The sales volume in August 2025 was 1.262 million vehicles, a 11.91% increase from the previous month [19][82]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14] - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,580 - 72,420 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][10] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][10] - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 73,549 yuan/ton, a 0.46% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,761 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 is 77,368 yuan/ton, a 0.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,563 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [9] - Other factors: On September 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,850 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10][11] -利多 factors: Manufacturers' production cut and shutdown plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [12] -利空 factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Data Overview**: The table shows the changes in prices, basis, and upstream prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide. For example, the price of lithium ore (6%) decreased by 0.59%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% [15] - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41% with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.46%, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% [19] - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.39%, and the monthly production increased by 4.96%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84%, and the monthly export increased by 34.94% [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has slightly increased. It is expected to fluctuate between 8330 - 8610 [3]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the short - term supply - side production scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate between 50780 - 52970 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% week - on - week increase [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week increase [3]. - Inventory: Silicon inventory is 213,000 tons (low), organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons (high) [3]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the wet season has weakened [3]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.36% week - on - week, the sample enterprise inventory decreased, and the main port inventory increased by 1.71% week - on - week [3]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [3]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% week - on - week increase. The planned output in September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.31GW, an 8.29% week - on - week increase; the battery cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase; the component output in August was 49.2GW, a 4.45% month - on - month increase [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,380 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased by 14.45% week - on - week and is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is long, and the long position has decreased [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed various changes, with some contracts rising and some falling [15]. - Spot prices of different types of silicon in East China had different changes, with some remaining stable and some rising slightly [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed various changes, with some rising, some remaining stable, and some falling [17]. - Inventory: Silicon wafer inventory, battery cell inventory, and component inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends are presented through historical data charts [19]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends of different regions and overall inventory are shown through historical data charts [22]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends of different regions and overall are presented through historical data charts [26]. - Industrial silicon cost trends of different sample regions are shown through historical data charts [32]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of different periods [34][37]. - For the downstream of industrial silicon: - Organic silicon: DMC production, price, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends are presented through historical data charts [40]. - Aluminum alloy: Price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are shown through historical data charts [49]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of different links (silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component) are presented through historical data charts [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10]. - In the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost - dominated situation will weaken. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased day - on - day, while the cost of purchased lithium mica decreased. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, and the cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower with sufficient profit margins [7]. - **Basis**: On September 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,790 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory decreased week - on - week, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The overall inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the historical average [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume is expected to increase by 33.62% month - on - month. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products showed different degrees of decline. The basis and futures closing prices also had corresponding changes [13][16]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate and related products had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand - side data such as the production and inventory of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also showed corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines showed different trends over time [23]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed an overall upward trend, with significant increases in imports from Australia [23]. - **Self - sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [23]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [29]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) also had corresponding changes [29]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [37][38][40]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate for production showed different trends over time [47]. - **Processing Cost Composition**: The processing cost composition of lithium spodumene and lithium mica included energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items, and showed different trends [47]. - **Other Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of recycling production of lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, and lithium hydroxide carbonization also had corresponding changes [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Production**: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [58][60]. - **Battery Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells also had corresponding changes [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the profit of external raw material procurement also changed [63]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - **Inventory and Trade Volume**: The inventory, import, and export volume of ternary materials also had corresponding changes [71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - profit**: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [73]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The monthly operating rate and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73][76]. - **Inventory and Export Volume**: The inventory and export volume of iron phosphate lithium also had corresponding changes [76][78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [81]. - **Sales Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also had corresponding changes [82]. - **Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers showed different trends [85].