1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply-side production scheduling has decreased, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9235. The inventory is bearish, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, the basis is bullish, and the disk is bullish [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand-side production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows a continuous recession, cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53405 - 54985. The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polycrystalline silicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900%. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.74%, and the demand continued to be sluggish. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, at a low level; the silicone inventory was 56,300 tons, at a low level; the alloy ingot inventory was 728,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%; the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the dry season increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.25%. The planned production in November was 120,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.37% compared with the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.54%, and the inventory was 175,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.44%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 57.66GW, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92% compared with the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 5.81GW, a month - on - month increase of 50.90%. Currently, production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 58.68GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.60%. The estimated component output in November was 46.92GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a month - on - month decrease of 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory was 35.4GW, a month - on - month increase of 5.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is complex. The production and import volume of lithium carbonate in the future have different trends, and the demand is expected to strengthen, with potential inventory reduction. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85320 - 87760. The overall market shows a pattern of supply exceeding demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [8][9] - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9] - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with production losses. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [9][10] - Price range: Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85320 - 87760 [9] - Influencing factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Neutral [10] - Basis: On November 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 2.67% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 4.16%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 2.40%, higher than the historical average; other inventories decreased by 1.88%, lower than the historical average [10] - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [10] - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish signal [10] 3.3 Price and Supply - Demand Data - **Lithium ore price**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 0.93% to 975 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) increased by 1.83% to 2220 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply - side data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate increased. The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources increased, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate also increased [18] - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly production and inventory of ternary precursors increased. The monthly production and loading volume of power batteries increased [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, with the predicted production in the next month rising by 3.01% to 89,890 tons and the import volume increasing by 12.26% to 22,000 tons. The demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged daily, lower than the historical average. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. - The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - The overall situation shows a mismatch between production capacity, leading to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,080 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.01%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,979 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,890 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, and the cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged [9][11]. - Price: The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Neutral. The cost of external spodumene concentrate has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of external lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Neutral [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory is 127,358 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters is 32,051 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.83%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 53,288 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.59%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 42,020 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%, lower than the historical average. Neutral [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. Bullish [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases. Bearish [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a mixed situation. Supply has increased, and demand has also recovered to a certain extent, but demand recovery remains at a low level. Costs have increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [3][6]. - The polysilicon market has short - term supply increases and medium - term expected adjustments. Demand is in the process of continuous recovery, costs are stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. The inventory of organic silicon is at a low level, with a production profit of - 454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 70.05%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and the inventory of major ports increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components has decreased to varying degrees, with battery cell production in a loss state and component production in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling will increase in the short term and adjust in the medium term. Demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to recover in the medium term, with overall demand showing continuous recovery. Cost support is stable, and the polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 2.40% to 9170 yuan/ton [14]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [14]. - The basis of most contracts has decreased [14]. - Inventory shows different trends, with social inventory decreasing by 0.53%, sample enterprise inventory decreasing by 0.18%, and major port inventory increasing by 2.50% [14]. - Production and开工率 vary by region, with Xinjiang's production and开工率 increasing, and Sichuan's production and开工率 decreasing [14]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 1.17% to 54,990 yuan/ton [16]. - Prices of different types of silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, and silicon wafer and battery cell production is in a loss state [16]. - The polysilicon inventory has increased by 1.98% to 258,000 tons [16]. - The production and demand of polysilicon in different months show different trends, with production and export showing some fluctuations [16]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 in East China [18][19]. - **Polysilicon Disk Price Trends**: The report shows the price and trading volume trends of the polysilicon main contract, as well as the basis trend [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: It includes the inventory trends of delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises [24][25][26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises in different regions, the monthly production by specification, and the开工率 trends [28][29][30][31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It presents the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the cost - profit trends of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, consumption, etc. [37][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from September 2024 to September 2025, including production, consumption, export, and import [40][41]. - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Table**: No detailed content is provided in the given text, only the title is mentioned [66]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: It includes the daily capacity utilization rate of DMC, the profit - cost trends of Shandong organic silicon DMC, and the weekly production trends [43][44]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: It shows the price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46][47]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: It presents the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC [50][51]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: It includes the waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy in China, the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, and the cost - profit trend of imported ADC12 [53][54]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56][57]. - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheels)**: It presents the monthly production and sales volume of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels [58][59][60]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: It includes the cost trend, price trend, total inventory, monthly production, monthly开工率, and monthly demand of the polysilicon industry [63][64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21308吨，环比增长1.14%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为104347吨，环比增加1.49%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为18592吨，环比增加3.50%。 3 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为79574元/吨，日环比增长0.23%,生产所得为-1542元/ 吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为84524元/吨，日环比增长1.81%,生产所得为-8509元/吨， 有所亏损；回收端生产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为 31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿石端，盈利空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is strong while demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The fundamentals are neutral, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [8]. - There are bullish factors such as manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Bearish factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of power battery ends to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in October 2025 will be 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,347 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,592 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 78,206 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 2.03%. The production from it was at a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 81,293 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.44%, and the production was also at a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 130,366 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, higher than the historical average level. The inventory of smelters was 33,681 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.75%, lower than the historical average level. The downstream inventory was 55,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26%, higher than the historical average level. Other inventories were 41,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% [8]. - **Disk and Position**: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 2.84% to 906 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.53% to 76,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data Overview**: In terms of supply, the monthly production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed an increasing trend in general. In terms of demand, the monthly demand for lithium - related products also showed certain changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the monthly demand was - 116,801 tons [17][34]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years [23]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, recycling materials) have shown different trends [28]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the export volume have changed [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have shown different trends [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has changed over the years [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, recycled materials) have shown different trends [42][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization, and lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide has changed [44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of lithium battery cells have changed, and the monthly power battery loading volume has increased [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells has changed [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [59]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors have changed [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [65]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, production cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production and weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [73][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [78][79]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the dealer inventory warning index and inventory index have changed [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.14% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. Lithium carbonate imports in September 2025 were 19,597 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8]. - Cost side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,342 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,139 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,835 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost is close to the ore - end cost, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Overall situation: The imbalance between supply and demand persists, with strong supply and weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,660 - 80,380 yuan/ton [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week's production increase and future production and import forecasts show a growing supply [8][9]. - Demand: Inventory increases in downstream enterprises and expected future demand changes [8][9]. - Cost: Different raw - material production costs and profit situations [9]. - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans and a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end and weak acceptance from the power - battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: - Futures closing prices of different contracts show price fluctuations, and most contracts have price changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 420 yuan to 79,520 yuan, a 0.53% decrease [16]. - Base - difference data shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate on October 24 was 75,400 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was - 4,120 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount to futures [9][16]. - Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 28,699, a 0.21% decrease [16]. - **Upstream Price Data**: - Lithium ore prices increased, with lithium spodumene (6%) rising by 11 dollars to 881 dollars/ton, a 1.26% increase, and lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) rising by 50 yuan to 1,940 yuan/ton, a 2.65% increase [16]. - Other raw - material prices also had different degrees of changes, such as a 4.01% increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate [16]. - **Supply - side Data**: - Production and cost data of different raw - material lithium carbonate, such as daily lithium spodumene production cost increasing by 708 yuan to 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% increase [19]. - Import and export data of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, such as a 10.61% increase in monthly lithium - concentrate imports [19][20]. - **Demand - side Data**: - Inventory data of downstream enterprises, such as a 1.49% increase in the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate to 104,347 tons [19]. - Battery - loading volume data, such as a 21.60% increase in the monthly total power - battery loading volume to 76,000 GWh [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore Supply**: - Price trends of lithium ore over the years and production trends of domestic lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines [26][27]. - Import volume and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, such as the import volume and proportion of Australian lithium ore [27]. - Supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [30]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: - Weekly and monthly production, production capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) [31][32]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, with different monthly supply - demand balance situations [38]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: - Capacity utilization, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) [40][41]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [43]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different raw - material production costs and profit situations of lithium carbonate, such as the cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica [46]. - Recycling production cost and profit of lithium carbonate from different waste materials, such as waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and ternary materials [48]. - Cost - profit situations in the production and processing of lithium hydroxide, such as the profit and cost of smelting and causticizing methods [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Weekly and monthly inventory data of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory [19][53]. - Monthly inventory data of lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory and downstream inventory [53]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery Demand**: - Battery price trends, production volume, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries [55][56]. - Cost data of different types of lithium - battery cells [56]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and import - export volume of ternary materials [67][68][70]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [73][76]. - **New - Energy Vehicle Demand**: - Production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles [80][81]. - Retail - wholesale ratio and inventory data of new - energy vehicles [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 74,820 - 76,580. [9] - The overall situation shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - **Cost - side**: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF has increased, but it is lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,778 yuan/ton, a 0.45% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,852 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite is 77,485 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 6,553 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9][11] - **Market Indicators**: On October 20, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,940 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, and the short position increased. [11] - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to take delivery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased from 846 to 851 dollars/ton, a 0.59% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,350 to 74,000 yuan/ton, a 0.89% increase. [16] - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 74.39%, a 4.32% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production of lithium concentrate, lepidolite, salt - lake lithium, and recycled lithium all showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32%, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 10.30%. [18][19] - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rates and production of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products all increased to varying degrees. The monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60%, with the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 26.61% and the loading volume of ternary batteries increasing by 20.54%. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased, with production increasing by 16.25% and sales increasing by 14.98%. [18][19] - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 132,658 tons, a 1.59% decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.34%, the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 3.40%, and the inventory of other sources increased by 0.87%. [18][19]

2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年10月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | 7万吨 . | ， | 环比有所增加4 . | 30% 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 | 环比减少4 ， | 65% . . | 需求持续低迷 | . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为24万吨 | ， | 处于高位 ， | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend due to capacity mismatch [8][11]. - The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 73,640 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 73,349 yuan/ton, a 0.07% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,413 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,178 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,225 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On October 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In September 2025, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.12% to 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) decreased by 2.27% to 1,725 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Salt**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 73,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 70,750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Positive Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [13]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over time [22]. - **Production**: The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [22]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has fluctuated, with a significant decrease in imports from Australia [15][22]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [22]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale has changed over the years [22]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [28]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume have changed [28]. - **Recycling**: The monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has changed [31]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) and the total production have changed [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The production cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed over time [42]. - **Recycling**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from recycled materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, etc.) have changed [44]. - **Other**: The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, etc., have changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [53]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [53]. - **Loading**: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials) has changed [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [58]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed [58]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has changed monthly [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [64]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed [64]. - **Production**: The production of ternary materials has changed [64]. - **Export - Import**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [66]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium - **Price**: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed over time [68]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of phosphate iron lithium have changed [68]. - **Production**: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has changed over time [76]. - **Export**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed [76]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) and the total sales volume have changed [76]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [77]. - **Inventory Index**: The monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed [80].