1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the futures market showed weak performance [4]. - Blast furnace operations first decreased and then increased, while electric furnace production continued to decline [4]. - The de - stocking speed of building materials was slow, and the inventory of plates accumulated more than expected [4]. - The demand for building materials increased month - on - month, while the domestic demand for plates was weak and the external demand was strong [4]. - Both finished products and raw materials prices fell, leading to a continued contraction of profits [4]. - The basis widened significantly, and all long - short arbitrage positions were closed [4]. - In September, blast furnace operations first decreased and then increased, pig iron production declined, and electric furnace production decreased significantly. Overall supply tightened month - on - month. In terms of varieties, electric furnace production decreased significantly, rebar production declined, and hot - rolled coil production increased. In terms of demand, the demand for rebar increased month - on - month, while the manufacturing industry actively reduced raw material inventories, and the domestic demand for plates remained weak. In terms of inventory, the de - stocking speed of building materials was slow, and the inventory of plates accumulated more than expected. Currently, the supply of the black metals sector is increasing month - on - month, and demand is expected to gradually slow down. Some short positions at low prices in the futures market have stopped profiting, showing obvious resistance to decline. In terms of strategies, it was previously suggested to reduce short positions and take profits before the holiday, wait for short - selling opportunities in the second half of the month, and pay attention to the rebound space brought by policy expectations [4]. Iron Ore - Spot ore prices decreased slightly, and the futures market showed a volatile trend [4]. - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources also declined [4]. - Pig iron production declined, but it may remain at a high level in the future [4]. - Port inventories increased significantly, and the pre - holiday restocking efforts were large [4]. - Shipping prices both increased [4]. - There was no trading space for the futures price spread, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the rebar - to - iron ore ratio for the 01 contract [4]. - In September, global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources also decreased. Overall supply tightened. In terms of demand, blast furnace operations at steel mills declined in September, and pig iron production first decreased and then increased. Currently, the profits of some blast furnace varieties are still good, and the short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient. There may be maintenance pressure in the later period of the fourth quarter. In terms of inventory, port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories increased significantly. Overall, in September, both supply and demand were weak, and the fundamentals were poor. The demand side will remain stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the incremental supply from Simandou. A short - selling strategy should be maintained for single - sided trading, and attention should be paid to the operation opportunity of shorting rebar and going long on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In September, rebar continued to decline after falling in August. The 01 contract of rebar futures fell 88 to 3072, and the price of hot - rolled coil futures fell 93 to 3253. In the spot market, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3230 (down 20), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3310 (down 60). The spot prices of finished products decreased synchronously in September, but the spot prices were stronger than the futures prices. As the peak season approached, the improved demand for building materials supported the relatively strong performance of spot prices [11]. 1.2 Supply - The production of blast furnaces first decreased and then increased, and the supply of electric furnaces tightened. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in China was 84.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The daily average pig iron production was 242.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.34 tons. In September, blast furnace production first decreased and then increased, reaching a four - month high in operating rate. Due to the near - full production of blast furnaces, the room for production increase was limited, and the pig iron production in September still hovered around 240 tons [14]. - The short - process supply of rebar continued to decline, and the long - process production also declined, but it was relatively stable. As of the end of September, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China was 50.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.12 percentage points. Although the demand for building steel increased, the increase was late. Against the background of the weakening of finished product prices throughout the month, combined with the tight supply of scrap steel, the profits of electric furnaces continued to narrow, forcing steel mills to reduce production, and the short - process operating rate continued to decline [20]. - In September, the weekly production of national building steel decreased slightly. As of September 26, the weekly production of rebar was 206.46 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1 ton. The average weekly production of hot - rolled coils in September was 322 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons. The supply increased slightly, mainly due to the profit difference. The profit of building materials remained low, while the profit of hot - rolled coils was relatively high, and the supply increased more significantly [24]. 1.3 Demand - In terms of building materials demand, in September, the market trading volume improved month - on - month, and the average daily trading volume of traders increased slightly by 4.3% compared with the previous month, but the year - on - year decline was still around 16.4%. As of the third week of September, the national cement delivery volume was 2.5905 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.32%. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.56 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.02%. Overall, the demand for building materials increased month - on - month in September, but the year - on - year decline was still obvious [27]. - In September, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August. The manufacturing industry showed a continuous improvement trend. The production side remained resilient and showed a moderate expansion. The external demand for hot - rolled coils increased as the domestic - foreign price difference widened again due to the weak domestic prices. However, although the terminal production was good, new orders were still weak, and the intention to actively reduce raw material inventories remained unchanged. The terminal procurement profit was weak, resulting in a slow release of hot - rolled coil demand. Coupled with the withdrawal of subsidies for automobiles and home appliances, the demand for plates was expected to decline significantly month - on - month [30]. 1.4 Profit - Since September, the prices of raw materials showed a slight downward trend, but the prices of finished products weakened more significantly, leading to a further weakening of blast furnace profits. The price of iron ore decreased by 1 yuan/ton month - on - month, the price of coke remained unchanged month - on - month, the price of scrap steel decreased by 10 yuan month - on - month, and the average price of rebar decreased by 65 yuan/ton month - on - month. The profitability of blast furnace steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month. In the short - process sector, the decline in scrap steel prices was also lower than that of finished products, and the profits of electric furnaces shrank significantly. As of the 30th, according to research data, 25.62% of steel mills had small profits, 49.59% of steel mills broke even, and 24.79% of steel mills suffered losses [35]. 1.5 Inventory - As of September 26, the social inventory of rebar was 4.7189 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 181,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.8456 million tons. The de - stocking of rebar in September was later than in previous years, mainly due to the late start of demand and the impact of typhoons in the South China region, which led to weak market purchasing power [39]. - As of September 25, the national social inventory of hot - rolled coils was 2.988 million tons, and the month - on - month increase widened to 130,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 171,800 tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils increased significantly in September, partly due to the increase in supply month - on - month and the weak start of demand, resulting in a more - than - seasonal accumulation of inventory [42]. 1.6 Basis - In August, the basis of rebar showed a volatile widening trend. At the end of September, the basis was 90, and on September 30, it was 138, a monthly increase of 48. For hot - rolled coils, the basis widened from 24 to 57. Currently, the discount of the two varieties was relatively neutral. Considering the weakening of spot prices, the room for further widening of the basis was limited [45]. 1.7 Inter - period Spread - In September, the inversion of the 10 - 1 spread of rebar continued, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 48 to - 76. The main reasons for the failure to repair the inversion were the short - term pressure of warehouse receipts and the slower - than - expected recovery of demand. The expectation for the far - month contract was stronger than that for the near - month contract [49]. 1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on the futures market narrowed significantly, from 256 to 181, and the spot spread narrowed from 120 to 100. The spread on both the futures and spot markets contracted synchronously. In September, the demand for building materials increased month - on - month, resulting in a narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Considering the significant weakening of the demand for building steel in the later period of October, attention should be paid to the opportunity for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar to widen [52]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In September, the price of iron ore showed a trend of rising first and then falling. After pre - trading the pre - holiday restocking, the futures market began to correct, showing a volatile continuation trend. The 01 contract fell 7 to 780.5, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 2 to 787 yuan/ton [57]. 2.2 Supply - Global shipments of iron ore decreased month - on - month in September, and the overall supply tightened. The daily average shipment volume was 4.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 60,000 tons. The daily average shipment from Australia increased by 220,000 tons month - on - month and 10,000 tons year - on - year, while the daily average shipment from Brazil decreased by 220,000 tons month - on - month and 100,000 tons year - on - year [60]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 19.419 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.52 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 7.514 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 730,000 tons. From the perspective of cumulative shipments this year, the cumulative global shipments of iron ore increased by 8.83 million tons year - on - year. Among them, the cumulative shipments from Brazil increased by 11.05 million tons year - on - year, the cumulative shipments from Australia increased by 5.47 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative shipments from non - mainstream regions decreased by 7.68 million tons year - on - year [63]. - The total arrival volume at 47 ports in September decreased month - on - month, but it was at a high level in the same period in the past three years. The daily average arrival volume was 3.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 117,000 tons. The increase in resources mainly came from Australia, and the arrival from Brazil decreased month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the pre - unloading volume at the two ports of the 47 ports shrank from 17.999 million tons at the beginning of September to 13.758 million tons. The arrival of resources decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [66]. 2.3 Demand - In September, the blast furnace operating rate first decreased and then increased, and the overall demand decreased slightly. According to Mysteel statistics, the daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mill samples in September decreased by 23,000 tons month - on - month to 238,200 tons/day, and the cumulative year - on - year increase for the whole year was 88,000 tons [69]. - In terms of downstream procurement, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports by traders was 1.04 million tons/day, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The spot trading volume at ports increased significantly, mainly due to the centralized pre - holiday restocking by steel mills [73]. 2.4 Inventory - In September, the inventory of iron ore at 47 ports in China showed an increasing trend. As of now, the total inventory of iron ore at 47 ports was 145.51 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons from the end of last month, a decrease of 10.6 million tons compared with the beginning of this year, and 1 million tons lower than the inventory in the same period last year. The increase in port inventory was mainly affected by the decline in pig iron production [76]. - As of September 29, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 97.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.292 million tons. Steel mills started restocking earlier and with a larger scale before the holiday, resulting in a significant increase in inventory [79]. 2.5 Shipping - In September, the shipping prices from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Brazil to Qingdao both increased slightly. The price from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 0.37 US dollars/ton, and the price from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 1.27 US dollars/ton. The overall fluctuations were not large [82]. 2.6 Spread - In September, the basis of iron ore showed a volatile widening trend. The 01 contract was at a discount of 23, and the current basis was relatively low. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for it to widen. The 1 - 5 spread narrowed from 24 to 19.5. Currently, the spread was at a medium level and still had no obvious trading value [85]. - In September, the rebar - to - iron ore ratio closed at 3.92, basically unchanged from the previous month. The futures market showed a synchronous trend of rising first and then falling, with no obvious overall change. The coke - to - iron ore ratio increased slightly to 2.12, mainly due to the relatively strong price of coking coal in September and the low inventory of coke. Currently, attention should be paid to the opportunity for the rebar - to - iron ore ratio to narrow in the off - season, and the direction of the coke - to - iron ore ratio was not clear [88]. Strategy Recommendation - For single - sided trading of iron ore, pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. - Continue to pay attention to the operation opportunity of shorting rebar 01 and going long on iron ore 01 for arbitrage. - In the spot - futures market, it is recommended that industrial customers close all previous long - short arbitrage positions. If there is inventory pressure, actively pay attention to the opportunity to establish short positions on the futures market during the rebound in October for hedging [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a significant decline, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6912.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of 2.44% during the trading session [1] - The price of PX fluctuated between a high of 6914.0 CNY and a low of 6804.0 CNY, indicating a weak market performance [1] - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals remain stable with upstream and downstream operations steady, while terminal operations show signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures highlighted that the PX market remains tight, but external price declines and reduced PTA processing fees could lead to negative feedback risks for downstream operations [1] - The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a six-month low of around 150, prompting some large facilities to reduce their operating rates [1] - Wukuang Futures indicated that while PX load remains high, the end of the PTA maintenance season and recovering polyester operations suggest limited short-term negative pressure on PX [2]