钢矿月度报告2025-10 淡旺季转换在即，黑色或维持弱势运行 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货延续下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | | 供给 | 高炉开工先跌后升，电炉产量继续回落 | | | 库存 | 建材去库速度较慢，板材库存超预期累积 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比回升，板材内需弱外需强 | | 材 | 利润 | 成材原料双双下跌，利润继续收缩 | | | 基差 | 基差大幅走扩，正套全部离场 | | | 总结 | 9月高炉开工先跌后涨，铁水产量下滑，电炉减产明显，整体供应环比收紧；分品种来看，电炉减产明显，螺纹产量下滑，热卷增产；需求方面，终端 螺纹需求环比回升，制造业主动压缩原材料库存，板类内需仍然偏弱；库存来看，建材总库存去库速度偏慢，板材超预期累库。目前黑色供应环比回 升，需求预计逐渐 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The terminal demand in the black industry continues to be weak, spot trading is poor, and speculative demand has also weakened. However, there is still an expectation of production restrictions. Recently, market sentiment has cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black industry, but differentiation among varieties may intensify [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures generally declined. The rebar closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 0.88%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3460 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the iron ore main contract closed at 772 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both declined today, with the coking coal decline close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. Both the social inventory and the steel mill inventory increased by nearly 3% month - on - month. Specifically, the steel mill inventories of all five varieties increased to varying degrees. The wire rod steel mill inventory increased by 8.13%, and its total inventory increased by 5.5%, with the apparent demand decreasing by 1.35% month - on - month. Rebar was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in production among the five major varieties. The steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, the social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and the total inventory also decreased by 5.5%. However, the apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, reaching a new low in the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [1]. - **Supply**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rebounded by 2.6% to 65.8%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% compared with last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 3,400 tons to 240,660 tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2%. Last week, the shortage of scrap resources remained unchanged. Since the increase in scrap prices was greater than that of rebar, the spread between rebar and scrap narrowed. The daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, some regions with high profits still had steel mills resuming production. As of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills both increased month - on - month [1]. Investment Advice - **Iron ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the change in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and focus on the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - Last week, the rebar price corrected from a high level, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebar diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to close at 3188, and the spot price also corrected. The rebar in East China was reported at 3320 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and an increase of 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average start - up rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of the five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, the rebar output decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement outbound volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and a decrease of 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and a decrease of 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car market retail volume was 452,000 vehicles, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [37]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 2.95%. The social inventory of rebar increased significantly, and the rebar factory inventory increased by 40,000 tons [41]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased slightly by 8,400 tons [44]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The basis of hot - rolled coils was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [47]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, with the inversion deepening by 8 compared with last week [50]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 251, widening by 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, widening by 20 compared with last week [53]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - Last week, the iron ore price oscillated after a correction, with narrow fluctuations. The 09 contract rose 7 to close at 790, and the trading volume and open interest both declined. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [59]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 1.2 million tons compared with last year [62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with last year [68]. 3.2.3 Rigid Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons/day, an increase of 0.34 tons/day week - on - week, an increase of 0.54 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 11.89 tons/day compared with last year [71]. 3.2.4 Speculative Demand - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Port Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 12.71 million tons compared with the same period last year [78]. 3.2.6 Downstream Inventory - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [81]. 3.2.7 Shipping - The sea freight from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The sea freight from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [84]. 3.2.8 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, remaining flat compared with last week. The 01 contract was at a discount of 19.5, remaining basically flat compared with last week [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market is bullish today, with supply-side bullish factors disturbing market sentiment, and the coking coal supply-demand expectation still supporting prices. However, to break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is required [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures are generally bullish. The closing price of rebar is 3,250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the main contract of hot-rolled coil closes at 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the main contract of iron ore closes at 796.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke rise today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow. Production verification in Shanxi coal mines is advancing, controlling the production of over - producing coal mines in the first half of the year. Some coal mines in Shanxi have issued a 276 - working - day production plan. The expected phased production capacity release is limited. Last week, coal mine output decreased slightly, and the clean coal inventory dropped by 26,000 tons to 2.457 million tons, the lowest since March 2024. The port inventory of imported coking coal decreased significantly by 300,000 tons to 4.6305 million tons, while the daily customs - cleared vehicle number at the Mengmen 288 port has recovered to over 1,300. The blast furnace hot metal output remains above 2.4 million tons, and the sixth round of coke price increase is about to be implemented. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high - level operations. Some offline coal mines have saturated pre - sale orders, supporting coal prices in the short term. However, the speculative demand in the market has cooled down, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced coal is low, and the overall online auction failure rate of coking coal has increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - **Coke**: Last Friday, mainstream coking enterprises proposed a sixth - round price increase for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 11. Mainstream steel mills postponed the implementation, and the specific implementation time is to be determined. Last week, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide increased by 29 yuan to 16 yuan/ton, the coking enterprise's loss slightly shrank, and the capacity utilization rate slightly rose to 74.03%. The blast furnace hot metal output of steel mills remains above 2.4 million tons, and speculative demand increases with the price rise. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 5.28% to 697,300 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills decreased by 1.18% to 6.1928 million tons. The port coke inventory slightly increased, and the total inventory reached a 7 - month low, but the year - on - year increase expanded to 16.62%. In general, under the background of steel mill production restrictions in the mainstream regions in the second half of the month, coke prices are supported by raw coal costs but also have a certain callback risk, and there is still room for game between coking and steel enterprises [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a short - term oscillatory approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the oscillatory market after the price stabilizes from a decline or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]. Summary - Overall, supply - side bullish factors disturb market sentiment, and the coking coal supply - demand expectation still supports prices. The futures market has already priced in part of the supply contraction expectation, and continuous reduction in supply leading to a shortage in the spot market is needed to break through the previous high [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the black industry is to maintain a volatile pattern, with trading mainly within a range [1]. - For rebar, the investment strategy is short - term trading [4][6]. - For coking coal and coke (double - coking), the strategy is neutral and wait - and - see [28]. - For iron ore, the investment strategy is to expect a volatile and upward - trending market [70]. Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the raw material prices of coking coal and coke have risen, they have not driven up steel prices. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated. The static valuation of rebar futures is neutral, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and industrial - end implementation [6]. - The coking coal market has supply - side disturbances and cautious demand - side sentiment, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited [31]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. Although there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand, considering potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for iron ore [71]. Summary by Directory Rebar Main Points - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of coking coal futures rose significantly, but rebar prices fluctuated narrowly. The latest rebar apparent demand increased by 7.38 tons week - on - week, production increased by 10.12 tons, and inventory increased by 10.39 tons. The supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - demand relationship remains relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated [6]. - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price was lower than the EAF flat - rate electricity cost and higher than the EAF off - peak electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation [24]. - **Driving Factors**: On the macro - level, the overly optimistic expectations have cooled down, and attention should be paid to the changes in Sino - US tariff policies. On the industrial - level, the actual supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal mines [6]. Trading Strategy - Short - term trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of [3100 - 3300] [7]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Domestic main production areas are affected by frequent accidents, underground production disturbances, and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, resulting in continuous supply - side disturbances and a tight overall supply pattern. The customs clearance volume at Mongolian ports is gradually recovering, but the downstream's receiving sentiment is cautious [31]. - **Demand**: The strengthening of the futures price has slightly boosted the sentiment in the spot market, but the operations of downstream coking and steel enterprises and intermediate trading links are still cautious. The online auctions of coal mines show differentiation, with both rises and falls. Most coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure, and the pit - mouth quotations remain stable overall [31]. - **Outlook**: The coking coal market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the "276" policy in domestic coal mines, the continuity of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the changes in the replenishment rhythm of coking and steel enterprises [31]. Coke - **Supply**: After five rounds of price increases for coke, the profitability of mainstream coking enterprises has marginally improved, driving a slight increase in the start - up rhythm. However, due to the continuous rise in raw material coal prices, the cost pressure of some coking enterprises has not been fully alleviated, and there is a slight production - restriction phenomenon. The overall start - up remains stable [31]. - **Demand**: With the marginal improvement in coke arrivals, the inventory pressure of steel mills has slightly eased, and the replenishment is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The molten iron production remains high and volatile, providing rigid support for coke, but some steel mills may plan maintenance due to profit considerations, and the procurement rhythm is cautious [31]. - **Cost**: The price of coking coal remains high and volatile, with the increase of some coal types narrowing and the trading enthusiasm cooling down, but the overall cost center is still at a relatively high level, providing certain support for the coke price [31]. - **Outlook**: The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal, the profit changes of steel mills, and policy dynamics [31]. Trading Strategy - Neutral and wait - and - see [31]. Iron Ore Main Points - **Market Review**: Last week, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, with the weekly line closing in the red and overall small fluctuations. After the macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month subsided, commodities generally showed a correction, but the correction range of the black series was small due to factors such as military - parade production restrictions and coking coal disturbances [71]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are gradually recovering after the end - of - fiscal - year rush of overseas mines, but the current shipment volume has slightly declined. The arrivals continue to increase due to the previous shipment rush, and the port inventory has further decreased. Domestic northern mines have seen a slight decline in production due to rainfall [71]. - **Demand**: The profitability of steel mills has continued to rise to a new high this year. Large blast furnaces are under maintenance, and the molten iron production has slightly decreased. Steel mills have replenished their inventories, but the inventory level is still lower than the same - period level [71]. - **Outlook**: The market is starting to price in events such as military - parade production restrictions, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance, which means there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand. However, considering the many potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for the iron ore market. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will be volatile and upward - trending [71]. Trading Strategy - Consider using iron ore as the long - leg when shorting other black - series varieties, and focus on the 770 support level for the 09 contract [71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today, with coking coal leading the gains, while the terminal demand is weak due to weather conditions. Steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand support still exists. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and inventory changes, and there is an obvious seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures are generally bullish today. The rebar closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the hot-rolled coil closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%; the iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both rose, with coking coal leading the gains by over 2% [1] Market Analysis - In terms of the industrial chain, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 234,700 tons to 1.37536 million tons this week, reaching a more than two-month high; the total output increased by 17,900 tons to 869,210 tons, and the apparent demand decreased month-on-month. Specifically, the social inventory of the five major varieties all increased to varying degrees. The inventory of rebar at steel mills increased by 3.73% month-on-month, and its total inventory increased by 1.9% to 556,680 tons, while the output increase reached 4.79%, and the apparent demand increased by 3.63% month-on-month; the output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.45%, the total inventory increased by 2.49% month-on-month, and the apparent demand decreased by 137,900 tons or 4.31% to 306,210 tons, reaching a nearly six-month low [1] - Steel mills currently have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the blast furnace hot metal has only decreased slightly, with demand support still existing. Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a more than nine-month high. The blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46% for the third consecutive week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 240,710 tons, but the year-on-year increase still reached 1.73%. Environmental protection restrictions will be implemented in the northern region for at least two weeks during the September 3 parade, which may suppress the demand for iron ore. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy restrictions [1] - The global iron ore shipments decreased again. From July 28 to August 3, the total global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.391 million tons to 30.618 million tons week-on-week, but there is an expectation of a seasonal rebound in August. In addition, benefiting from the arrival of the previous shipment increments at ports, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China increased by 3.027 million tons to 26.224 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 13%. As of last Monday, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 143.1097 million tons, an increase of 292,400 tons compared with the previous Monday, and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply-demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the changes in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high-level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply-demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overseas trade uncertainties still exist, and the domestic anti-involution sentiment has cooled down. Currently, iron ore generally follows coking coal, and the supply-side disturbances of coking coal still exist. The strengthening of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The recent significant weakening of steel mill profits has made the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal more prominent [1]

Report Title - Steel and Ore Monthly Report 2025 - 08: Industrial Expectations Disappointed, Black Rebound Halted [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center's Black Industry Group [2] Report Main Views Steel - **Price**: Spot prices rebounded significantly, and the futures market was strong. In July, the螺纹10 contract rose 208 to 3205, and the hot - rolled coil futures price rose 267 to 3390. Shanghai's spot prices for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased by 220 and 170 respectively [8]. - **Supply**: Blast furnace production remained high, and electric furnace supply increased significantly. As of August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.05% at the end of July [11][18]. - **Demand**: Speculative demand for building materials increased significantly, while both domestic and foreign demand for plates decreased month - on - month. In July, the average monthly apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1% [24][27]. - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits continued to increase, and electric furnace production turned profitable. By August 1, the blast furnace profitability rate reached 65.4%, and the average profit of electric furnace rebar at off - peak electricity was 81 yuan/ton on July 30 [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation rate of building materials was slower than expected, and plate inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 1, rebar social inventory increased by 200,000 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2% in July [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated, and the futures - spot spread accelerated its decline. The rebar 10 - contract basis widened by 4 from the end of June to August 1, and the hot - rolled coil basis inverted [41]. - **Summary**: In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, molten iron production remained high, and electric furnace production increased significantly. Overall supply was abundant. Demand for plates was weak due to the seasonal off - peak for manufacturing. Considering the weakening support logic in the black industry, there is significant pressure for a correction in the futures market. Maintain a short - selling strategy in the short term [3]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Spot ore prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. In July, the futures price rose 63.5 to 779, and the Rizhao Port PB powder price rose 64 to 779 yuan/ton [52]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. In July, the weekly average global shipment volume was 30.73 million tons, a decrease of 3.59 million tons from the previous month [55]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production remained high, and demand was expected to remain resilient. In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, and molten iron production remained high. It is expected that the average daily molten iron production in August will be between 2.37 and 2.4 million tons [64]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks passively. As of August 1, the 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.74 million tons month - on - month [70]. - **Shipping**: Shipping prices increased significantly [76]. - **Spread**: There was no trading space for the futures spread, but attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]. - **Summary**: In July, supply tightened while demand remained high, and the fundamentals were strong. Later, affected by the weakening industrial logic, ore prices declined from their highs. Considering the short window period for short - selling and the more certain weakening of finished products, short - selling iron ore is not recommended for now. Instead, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore [3]. Strategies - For steel, continue to hold the short positions recommended in the weekly strategy and watch for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore and the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term macro expectations are strong, and the continuous situation of billet exports should be monitored. The anti - involution drives the raw material positive feedback effect, and the market is regarded as fluctuating strongly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 23, the overall upward trend of black commodity futures weakened, with coking coal leading the rise and hitting the daily limit. The closing price of rebar was 3274 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3438 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of iron ore was 812 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to rise sharply, and coking coal hit the daily limit [1] Market Analysis Macro Aspect - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials. On July 19, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, which may set a record in investment scale, igniting the financial market's bullish sentiment and bringing imagination space for steel demand expansion [1] Supply Aspect - From July 14 to July 20, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons, reaching a three - week high. Australian shipments decreased by 1.089 million tons to 16.294 million tons, Brazilian shipments increased by 1.021 million tons to 9.226 million tons, and non - mainstream region shipments rose by more than 30%. Due to the previous decline in shipments, the arrival volume of overseas iron ore in Chinese ports decreased significantly, with the arrival volume at 47 ports being 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons. Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant [1] Demand Aspect - High profits of steel mills drive the increase of molten iron production in the off - season. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%. The average daily molten iron production was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. The better - than - expected recovery of molten iron production indicates good demand for iron ore, which may have a positive impact on the market [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Monitor supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Monitor the stable - after - decline oscillating market and the strength relationship between the two [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, spot prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded from a low level. Blast furnace production decreased slightly, and electric furnace production continued to decline. Building material social inventory continued to decrease, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace. Building material speculative demand increased significantly, while plate domestic demand declined significantly. Blast furnace profits remained high, and the loss of electric furnaces narrowed. The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit. The industrial logic accounted for a relatively low proportion, and the expected trading speculation was still fermenting. The probability of the futures market returning to a downward trend in the short - term was low. It was recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. - For iron ore, the ore price rose strongly, and the futures market continued to rebound. Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, while arrivals increased slightly. Blast furnace production decreased, and demand weakened month - on - month. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the total downstream inventory declined. Shipping costs increased slightly, and the futures price spread narrowed. The anti - involution speculation continued to ferment, and the market sentiment was still recovering. The supply was relatively flat last week, and the demand decreased slightly. The change in supply - demand strength was not obvious, and it was expected that news speculation would continue next week. It was also recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The price of rebar rebounded strongly last week, with the 10 - contract rising 77 to 3072. The spot price fluctuated, with rebar in East China reported at 3170 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 0.65 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons week - on - week. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points [16][24]. - The rebar production decreased by 4.42 tons last week, and the hot - rolled production decreased by 5 tons week - on - week [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - From July 2nd to July 8th, the national cement outbound volume was 272.58 tons, down 1.26% week - on - week and 27.41% year - on - year. Speculative demand improved, while terminal demand declined [31]. - The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 873.07 tons, down 1.4%; plate consumption decreased by 1.8% month - on - month [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - For blast furnaces, although the iron ore price rose significantly and the profit per ton of steel declined, it still operated between 160 - 200. The loss of short - process production was repaired, and the valley - electricity production in the Southwest region turned profitable [38]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1339.58 tons, down 0.35 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.03%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased week - on - week. The factory inventory increased week - on - week, mainly contributed by medium - thick plates. The social inventory decreased week - on - week, mainly contributed by rebar. The rebar factory inventory showed a slight increase, up 0.41 tons week - on - week [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - factory inventory decreased slightly compared with last week. In terms of social inventory, from the perspective of the three major regions, the inventory in the North decreased by 1.61 tons week - on - week, while the inventory in East China and the South increased by 1.84 tons and 0.9 tons respectively [45]. 3.1.6 Basis The current basis of rebar 10 was 107, narrowing 1 compared with last week, and the change in the basis was not significant. All reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit [50]. 3.1.7 Inter - period Spread The 10 - 1 spread was - 28, with an inverted spread of 7 compared with last week, and the degree of inversion deepened. The near - month contract faced off - season pressure, and the price was expected to decline. The far - month contract had a better expectation, and the price was relatively high. The inverted spread situation might be repaired after the rebound ended [53]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 140, widening 11 compared with last week. The spot spread was 70, narrowing 20 compared with last week. The spread was at a moderately high level. The rebar rebound was relatively strong, and the plate faced the off - season of the automotive industry with declining demand. It was expected that there would be no further contraction space in the futures spread, and no operation was recommended [56]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price rebounded strongly last week, with the 09 - contract rising 31.5 to 764. The spot price also rose, with the PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 27 to 752 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks, leading to a significant increase in port transactions [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current shipment volume was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 363 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in July was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 437 tons compared with last month and an increase of 64 tons compared with last year [64]. - In the long - term, the weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 1764 tons, a decrease of 252 tons compared with last month and an increase of 95 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 181 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 144 tons compared with last year. From the perspective of cumulative shipments this year, the cumulative global iron ore shipments decreased by 173 tons year - on - year, with Brazil's cumulative shipments increasing by 683 tons year - on - year, Australia's cumulative shipments decreasing by 661 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative shipments decreasing by 196 tons year - on - year [67]. - The arrival volume of 47 ports increased week - on - week, at a moderately low level compared with the same period in the past three years. The current arrival volume was 2535.5 tons, an increase of 122 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in July was 2535.5 tons, a decrease of 59 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 20 tons compared with last year. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative arrival volume of 47 ports decreased by 2528 tons year - on - year, with Australia's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 575 tons year - on - year, Brazil's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 392 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative arrivals decreasing by 1560 tons year - on - year [70]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased last week, with an average daily output of 239.81 tons/day, a decrease of 1.04 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 9.22 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.52 tons/day compared with last year [73]. - In terms of downstream procurement, the average daily port transaction volume last week was 90.1 tons, a decrease of 7.7 tons week - on - week. Due to the sharp rise in the previous period, the market's fear of high prices resurfaced, and the overall transaction volume declined. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished stocks as needed, and the procurement volume decreased with the decline in pig iron production [76]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory of 47 ports decreased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14346.89 tons, a decrease of 139 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 1264 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1359 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year [79]. - In terms of downstream inventory, on July 10th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills under the new statistical caliber was 2814.74 tons, an increase of 13.80 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 112.42 tons, a decrease of 5.81 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 25.04, an increase of 1.35 compared with the previous period. The total steel mill ore powder inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the price was relatively high, and the steel procurement rhythm was slow [82]. 3.2.5 Shipping The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.54 US dollars/ton, rising 0.15 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 19.33 US dollars/ton, rising 0.75 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost increased slightly [85]. 3.2.6 Spread The 9 - 1 spread was 27.5, widening 2 compared with last week, and the overall change was not significant. The 9 - 1 spread was at a moderately low level, and the overall spread structure was relatively flat. The 09 - contract was at a discount of 9, at a moderately low level. The spread narrowed 5 last week. Recently, the futures price rose sharply, and the spot price might follow the decline of finished steel products later. The iron ore basis was expected to expand slightly [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity futures stabilized and rose slightly today. The terminal demand for finished products is expected to face the risk of weakening in the off - season, and the iron ore price range may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black - series commodity futures stabilized and rose slightly today. The rebar closed at 2992 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the iron ore main contract closed at 703 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke both rose [1] Market Analysis - The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline to 1.33889 million tons this week, reaching a five - month low with a decline of 1.16%. Except for cold - rolled steel, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rose by 160,800 tons to 884,180 tons in total [1] - The profitability of 247 steel mills rebounded to 59.31% week - on - week, and the driving force for production reduction was limited. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.41 percentage points to 83.82% week - on - week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased to 90.79%. The daily average pig iron output stopped falling after five consecutive declines, increasing by 5700 tons to 242,180 tons week - on - week, and increasing by 22,400 tons year - on - year [1] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 4.49% week - on - week to 33.527 million tons, a decrease of 1.577 million tons, but it was still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, with a year - on - year increase of 10.59%. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 1.564 million tons to 25.175 million tons week - on - week, within the normal fluctuation range [1] - Considering the expectation of the mine's end - of - season rush at the end of June and the subsequent transmission of high overseas shipments to the future domestic arrival volume, the iron ore supply is becoming looser. The daily average port iron ore clearance volume rebounded from a three - month low this week. The weekly inventory of imported ore at 47 ports in the country decreased by 695,800 tons to 14.43356 million tons, nearly 7% lower year - on - year [1] - With the absolute low inventory in the factory, steel mills replenished inventory as needed. The inventory of imported ore in the factory rebounded by 1.3756 million tons to 8.93624 million tons this week, also at a one - month high; the inventory - to - consumption ratio rebounded by 0.4 days to 29.69 days [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]