Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic transition in China, highlighting the balance between economic resilience and challenges such as domestic demand, real estate market adjustments, and bank net interest margins [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Coordination - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for policy support and reform innovation, focusing on maximizing economic potential and ensuring effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [3]. - A "gradual reduction in reserve requirement and interest rates" is anticipated over the next two years, with a preference for reserve requirement cuts over interest rate reductions due to the current low net interest margins of commercial banks [5][6]. - The Chinese monetary policy framework differs from Western countries, as it relies more on reserve requirements rather than interest rates, allowing for significant room for reserve requirement cuts [7]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Stabilization - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have shown some effectiveness, with a narrowing decline in key indicators such as new housing sales and funding availability [10][11]. - The key to stabilizing expectations in the real estate market lies in improving liquidity and addressing employment and income expectations among residents [11][12]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The article stresses the importance of investing in human capital to drive high-quality economic growth, advocating for increased fiscal spending on education, healthcare, and social services [13][14]. - The current financial structure in China, dominated by indirect financing through banks, needs to evolve towards a more direct financing model to better support innovation and new economic drivers [13]. Group 4: Consumer Demand Activation - Short-term fiscal measures, such as targeted transfer payments and consumption vouchers, are deemed more urgent and effective in boosting consumer spending compared to long-term tax reforms [16][17]. - Specific measures to guide demand towards service consumption in areas like elder care and childcare include government procurement and tax incentives for related services [18][19]. Group 5: Macro-Control Policies - The article suggests optimizing consumer subsidy policies and increasing support for service consumption in the aging population and childcare sectors to stimulate demand [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment is characterized by a transition period, with a stable economic foundation but challenges in domestic demand, real estate adjustments, and bank net interest margins. The focus is on leveraging economic potential through policy support and reform innovation [1]. Group 1: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination - The preference for "reducing reserve requirements over lowering interest rates" is based on the current low net interest margins of commercial banks, which makes significant interest rate cuts less feasible. This approach aligns with China's macroeconomic governance, where fiscal policy plays a leading role and monetary policy acts in support [2][3]. - The "gradual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates" approach is recommended due to high uncertainty, allowing for a more measured monetary policy implementation that considers market feedback [3]. - China's average reserve requirement ratio is approximately 6.3%, indicating significant room for reduction compared to Western countries, where reserve requirements have been largely eliminated [4]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Stability - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market include adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and lowering housing fund loan interest rates, resulting in a narrowing decline in key real estate indicators such as sales and funding [6][7]. - The key to stabilizing expectations in the real estate market lies in improving liquidity and addressing employment and income expectations, which are critical for demand recovery [7]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The shift from "investment in physical assets" to "investment in human capital" is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing public services in education, healthcare, and social security to drive economic growth [8][9]. - The government aims to increase fiscal spending on social welfare, which currently accounts for less than 10% of GDP, compared to 10-20% in developed countries, indicating room for growth [10]. Group 4: Consumption Activation - Short-term measures such as fiscal transfer payments (e.g., consumption vouchers) are deemed more urgent and effective for boosting consumer spending, especially for low-income groups [11][12]. - Long-term strategies should include tax reforms and targeted subsidies to stimulate demand in service sectors like elder care and childcare, which have significant growth potential [13][14][16].

Group 1 - The current economic operation is at a critical stage of transformation and upgrading, with a generally stable economic foundation and persistent resilience, but issues such as domestic demand stimulation and deep adjustments in the real estate market still need to be addressed [3][21] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the need to fully tap economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, and focusing on both investment in physical assets and human capital [3][21] - The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is crucial, with a preference for reserve requirement cuts over interest rate reductions, as the latter is more suitable for the current national context [4][5][21] Group 2 - The "gradual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates" approach is recommended due to high uncertainty, suggesting a "small steps" model for monetary policy [4][22] - The Chinese monetary policy framework differs fundamentally from Western countries, which primarily use interest rates for monetary control, as China's system still relies heavily on reserve requirements [5][23] - The People's Bank of China has begun to innovate structural monetary policy tools to enhance credit supply and demand, particularly in supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and key sectors [6][24] Group 3 - Recent measures to stabilize the real estate market include adjusting housing purchase restrictions and lowering housing provident fund loan rates, which have led to a narrowing decline in key real estate indicators [8][26] - The key to stabilizing expectations in the real estate market lies in improving liquidity and addressing employment and income expectations, which are critical for releasing policy effects [9][27] - Long-term reforms in land supply and fiscal structure are necessary to shift from a land-based development model to a more integrated approach that considers housing, land, and finance [9][27] Group 4 - The financial structure needs optimization, with a shift from indirect financing to direct financing to better support technological innovation and new production capabilities [10][28] - "Investment in people" focuses on directing more fiscal resources towards improving public services and human capital, which is essential for sustainable economic growth [10][29] - Key measures include implementing income increase plans for urban residents and increasing government spending on education, healthcare, and social services [11][30] Group 5 - Short-term fiscal transfer payments, such as consumption vouchers and targeted subsidies, are deemed more urgent and effective for boosting consumption in the current economic environment [13][31] - The government can stimulate demand in service sectors like childcare and elderly care through procurement and tax incentives, which will encourage investment in these areas [15][33] - The silver economy and childcare sectors present significant opportunities for consumption growth, with projections indicating substantial increases in their economic contributions by 2035 [16][36]

其次，"渐进式降准降息周期"指的是面对较高的不确定性，货币政策宜采取"小步走"模式。货币政策从 实施到传导至实体经济并产生影响，往往存在一定时滞。财政政策可直接介入经济活动，而货币政策多 通过间接方式发挥作用，其实施效果在很大程度上受市场反馈影响。以2008年国际金融危机为例，美联 储大幅释放流动性，希望商业银行扩大信贷投放，但商业银行因担忧风险而不愿配合，导致2014年美国 商业银行超储率高达20%。这充分说明若缺乏金融体系的配合，中央银行的货币政策目标难以实现。因 此，货币政策不宜预设刚性路径，而应实施渐进式、相机抉择的调控。 盛松成 宏观调控精准施策 护航经济高质量发展 ——对话中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成 当前，经济运行处在转型升级的关键时期。一方面，经济基本面总体稳健，韧性持续显现、积极因素不 断累积；另一方面，内需提振、房地产市场深度调整、商业银行净息差等方面问题仍有待解决。 2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，做好新形势下经济工作"必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持 政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'，必须坚持投资于物和投资于 ...