专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行。半夏投资创始人李蓓出席本次大会并发表主题演讲。李蓓表示，当前 A股、港股大盘指数已成为全球各类资产中性价比突出的高回报标的，即便经济持续承压、通缩态势延 续，核心指数的ROE（净资产收益率）也已筑底企稳，不会再出现明显下滑，龙头企业的盈利韧性将成 为市场重要支撑。 李蓓首先从估值维度给出直观对比："静态横向来看，A股、港股大盘指数在全球资产中具备显著的回 报优势。以沪深300指数为例，当前PE（市盈率）约13倍，隐含回报高达7%，港股部分指数的隐含回报 更是高于这一水平。"她进一步补充，尽管市场担忧局部领域存在泡沫，但全市场估值中位数仍处于中 偏低区间，整体估值风险已充分释放。 针对市场最核心的盈利担忧——"经济下滑、通缩延续是否会导致盈利崩塌"，李蓓给出明确回应："这 正是我想重点澄清的一点：即便经济没有起色、通缩继续，核心指数的ROE也已不会再明显下降。"她 援引历史数据佐证："过去两年，在通缩持续、经济下滑的背景下，核心指数的ROE已经走平，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is undergoing significant adjustments with the inclusion of new stocks in various indices, which may enhance investment opportunities and market performance in the near future [1][2][3]. Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index will add Midea Group (0300.HK) and ZTO Express (02057.HK), increasing its constituent stocks from 83 to 85 [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index will include BYD Company (01211.HK) while removing Tencent Literature (00772.HK), maintaining a total of 30 constituent stocks [5]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index remains unchanged with 50 constituent stocks [4]. - The Hang Seng Composite Index will increase from 502 to 505 stocks, adding companies like Bruker (00325.HK), Gu Ming (01364.HK), and Mixue Group (02097.HK) [5]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a weak fluctuation today, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.46%, the China Enterprises Index down by 0.49%, and the Technology Index down by 0.31% [8]. - Despite the daily decline, the weekly performance shows strength, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.09% for the week, achieving six consecutive weekly gains [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, will positively impact Hong Kong stock earnings, with continued inflows of southbound capital expected [9]. - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at historically low to mid-levels, suggesting strong long-term investment potential [9]. - The market is anticipated to benefit from improved economic conditions, liquidity, and technological advancements, which could lead to a resurgence of the Hong Kong stock market [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that there is a projected net inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market, estimated to be between 800 billion HKD to 1 trillion HKD for the year, with a more certain incremental inflow of 200 billion HKD to 300 billion HKD in the latter part of the year [1][2] - Recent trends show that southbound funds have favored non-essential consumer stocks, with a net buying amount exceeding 600 billion HKD in the past month, while sectors like telecommunications have seen significant net selling [2] - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to see stable earnings growth, supported by a reduction in the impact of US tariff policies and proactive macroeconomic policies from China [3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index has shown slight fluctuations, with a recent closing at 22,008.11 points, reflecting a mixed performance over the past trading days [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net outflow of 43.94 billion HKD this week, with notable outflows on specific days, indicating a temporary shift in investor sentiment [1][2] - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that benefit from domestic demand policies, such as consumer and technology sectors, as well as industries with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, including finance, energy, telecommunications, public utilities, essential consumption, and real estate [3]