[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 3 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 港股通成分股调入调出效应与预测 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]陈原文 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080003 | | 0755-82797057 | | chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 安宁宁 | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，陈原文并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 金融工程:成长质量选股探讨 | 2026-02-13 | | --- | --- | | 基于卷积神经网络的指数轮 | 2026-02-13 | | 动策略:行业主题轮动研究报 | | | 告 | | | 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分 | 2026 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260302 科技阵痛与地缘阴霾交织，静待"两会"破 局之机——港股周观点 [Table_Summary] ◼ 一、本周回顾（2026/2/23-2/27）：全球主要市场涨跌互现，韩国综指、日 经 225 指数涨幅居前，印度 SENSEX30、恒生科技指数跌幅居前。恒生科 技下跌1.4%，恒指上涨0.8%，恒生国企下跌1.1%。行业上，原材料业（4.8%）、 金融业（2.9%）、地产建筑业（2.8%）领涨；医疗保健业（-5%）、非必需 性消费（-1.8%）领跌。 本周港股表现分化。美股围绕英伟达财报和"HALO"交易，市场对 AI 支 出的担忧持续，谨慎对待轻资产"代码"叙事。在地缘风险持续上升和中东 冲突的背景下，重资产特性的企业和实物资产在近期成为共识的避险选择， 原材料、能源、工业等中上游行业获得资金青睐。 南向资金减速流入。港股通净流入 67 亿元，港股成交额占比降至本周 32%。 净流入：资讯科技业、非必需性消费、地产建筑业；净流出：电讯业、公用 事业。净买入 TOP：美团、小米集团、腾讯。 本周内地投向中国香港市场的 ETF（港股通+QDII）净流入 ...

智通财经2月27日讯（编辑 冯轶）今日港股2月行情正式收官。据Wind数据显示，2月南向资金累计净流入约905.75亿港元，为近3个月以来的单月新高。 需要指出的是，考虑到春节假期影响，本月港股通仅有14个交易日，日均流入达64.69亿港元，环比1月增长近9成，实际呈现爆发式流入。 其中，有5个交易日单日净买入规模超过百亿，且频频刷新阶段性纪录。 可以看到，尽管港股大市行情2月震荡走弱，但在恒指中枢下移过程中，南向资金仍在主动加仓。 | | 南向资金2月流向 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 所属行业 | 净买卖金额(亿) | 占行业总市值 | | 资讯科技业 | 393.72 | -1.1 | | 非必需性消费 | 211.96 | -1.04 | | 地产建筑业 | 99.4 | 0.35 | | 要鄙亦 | 97.62 | 0.95 | | 能源业 | 61.57 | 0.75 | | 必用事业 | 26.96 | 50'0 | | 工业 | 26.06 | 0.46 | | 医疗保健业 | 18.04 | -0.5. | | 综合企业 | 1.82 | 0.01 | | 必需性消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, indicates a potential bottoming out despite ongoing market adjustments [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Trends - Southbound capital has seen a significant net inflow of 637 billion HKD over seven trading days, with notable daily net purchases exceeding 100 billion HKD [1][2]. - The primary sectors attracting this capital include information technology (71.24 billion HKD), financial services (60.84 billion HKD), non-essential consumer goods (51.41 billion HKD), and real estate (41.46 billion HKD) [2]. - Major stocks receiving substantial inflows include Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group, with net purchases of 60.77 billion HKD and 31.05 billion HKD, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Analysts suggest that the current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 22.13 times earnings, which is at a historical low of 24.31% [6]. - Despite the influx of southbound capital, there remains a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market, as evidenced by a net outflow of 18.87 billion HKD on February 9 [5][6]. - The overall market is perceived to be in a deep value zone, with some analysts indicating that the market requires additional conditions to confirm a bottom [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on a balanced approach, emphasizing both growth and value sectors, particularly in technology and high-dividend assets [7][8]. - Analysts recommend a selective investment strategy, highlighting opportunities in AI-related sectors, high-quality dividend stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8]. - The importance of stock selection is increasing, with suggestions to adopt a phased investment approach while monitoring policy changes and global liquidity [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index Company announced that the technology and biotechnology sectors will perform prominently in the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, with both the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index achieving their best annual performance since their inception. In this context, the Hang Seng Dual Technology Index will be launched in January 2026, combining the constituents of both indices into a single index to highlight these two key themes [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Indices - The Hang Seng Technology Index recorded a 23.5% increase in 2025, marking its highest annual growth since its launch in July 2020 [3]. - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index achieved a remarkable 64.5% increase in 2025, representing its best annual performance since its inception in December 2019 [3]. - The strong performance of these indices is driven by structural factors and improvements in fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The technology sector in China is a focal point, receiving clear and long-term policy support, with "significantly improving the level of technological self-reliance" being a major goal in China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) [6]. - Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key area of market focus, with Chinese AI models gaining global recognition [6]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index represents 30 of the largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong, focusing on areas such as smart technology, cloud computing, digital commerce, and fintech [6]. Group 3: Biotechnology Sector - The Chinese biotechnology sector has gained significant attention due to the increasing global recognition of innovative drugs developed in China, with the total value of outbound licensing transactions for innovative drugs reaching a record high of $136 billion in 2025 [7]. - This record transaction volume indicates a significant enhancement in the global competitiveness and technical capabilities of the Chinese biotechnology industry [7]. - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, which tracks the performance of the largest 30 biotechnology companies listed in Hong Kong, recorded a historic 64% annual increase in 2025 and continued to rise by 9% in January 2026 [8]. Group 4: Launch of the Hang Seng Dual Technology Index - The Hang Seng Dual Technology Index, launched on January 9, 2026, combines the two themes of technology and biotechnology, with a weight allocation of 75% to the Hang Seng Technology Index and 25% to the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index [12]. - The index recorded a 36% increase in 2025, with a continued upward trend into 2026, reflecting ongoing market interest in Chinese innovation themes [12]. - As of January 30, 2026, the index had a one-year annualized volatility of 34%, lower than the 35% and 40% of the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, respectively, indicating a balanced risk profile [12].

IPO市场全球夺魁，A+H上市成主力 2026年2月2日，沙利文捷利（深圳）云科技有限公司（活报告/LiveReport大数据）携手捷利交易宝、弗若斯特沙利文及头豹国际，正式发布《2025年香港 IPO市场及二级市场白皮书》。白皮书通过详实的数据与深度的行业洞察，系统回顾2025年港股市场表现，揭示其结构性变化与未来趋势。 2025年，香港IPO市场募资规模达2,867亿港元，同比大幅增长225.9%，重登全球募资榜首。全年共114家企业上市，同比增长62.9%。其中，超大规模IPO （募资超100亿港元）达8家，较2024年增长7倍。 | 规模区间(潜元) | 2023年(家数) | 2024年 (家数) | 2025年(家数) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 超大规模(100亿以上) | 0 | 1 | 8 | | 大规模(50-100亿) | 1 | 3 | 4 | | 中规模(20-50亿) | 3 | 2 | 21 | | 小规模(20亿以下) | 64 | 64 | 81 | | 合计 | ୧୫ | 70 | 114 | 来源：《2025年香港IPO市场及二级市场白皮书 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with major indices rising over 2%, driven by a "technology + dividend" strategy through the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) saw an intraday increase of 2.54%, currently up 2.33%, indicating a strong market momentum [1] - Leading stocks include Pop Mart with over 6% gain, China Petroleum over 5%, and several others like China National Offshore Oil, Li Auto, and SMIC rising over 4% [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analyst Zhang Yidong suggests that the current phase of the Hong Kong stock market may lead to a long-term bull market, with technology remaining a key focus [2] - Fund manager Cao Xucheng notes that while the Hong Kong market may disappoint in Q4 2025, it could perform well in 2026 due to potential capital inflow from A-shares [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the Hong Kong market will benefit from domestic "14th Five-Year Plan" initiatives and external economic policies promoting fiscal and monetary easing [2] - The presence of a complete AI industry chain in Hong Kong, along with the influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, is expected to enhance market liquidity and drive valuation recovery [2] Group 4: ETF Strategy - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF employs a "technology + dividend" strategy, featuring a mix of high-growth tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent, alongside stable dividend-paying stocks such as China Construction Bank and Ping An [3] - This ETF supports "T+0" intraday trading, making it a flexible tool for long-term investment in the Hong Kong market [3] Group 5: Index Composition - The index composition of the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF is slightly more technology-focused compared to the Hang Seng Index, which may explain its superior performance over the past five years [4]

● 本报记者 吴玉华 港股大额回购频现 分析人士认为，上市公司回购释放出一个重要积极信号，有助于维护公司价值。在流动性持续宽裕的背 景下，投资者风险偏好有望回暖，港股有望震荡上行。 从2026年以来港股上市公司回购金额来看，腾讯控股、小米集团-W、舜宇光学科技、吉利汽车、泡泡 玛特、巨子生物、先声药业、快手-W、百胜中国、百融云-W位居前十，回购金额分别为63.58亿港元、 23.90亿港元、8.69亿港元、5.60亿港元、3.48亿港元、1.40亿港元、1.26亿港元、1.00亿港元、0.85亿港 元、0.83亿港元。从行业分布情况来看，其中既有腾讯控股、快手-W这样的互联网科技公司，也有吉 利汽车、泡泡玛特这样的非必需性消费公司，还有巨子生物、先声药业这样的生物医药公司。 从回购金额最大的腾讯控股来看，2026年以来，腾讯控股在10个交易日出现回购，每个交易日的回购金 额均超过6.3亿港元，保持了持续稳定的回购态势。 业内人士认为，对于投资者而言，上市公司回购是一个重要的积极信号，往往体现公司对盈利能力增长 和盈利质量改善的信心，有助于维护公司价值；同时也能够向投资者释放积极信号，提振投资者对上市 公司后 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 1月27日，港股通50ETF（159712）盘中涨超1.5%，跨境资金回流有望支撑市场。 天风证券指出，当前市场风险偏好波动、外部不确定性加剧的环境下，在港股市场配置层面，建议价值 为主、成长为辅，重点关注具备估值约束相对较小、现金流与分红稳定特征的板块，以在不确定性环境 中提升组合的稳定性与防御属性。 港股通50ETF（159712）跟踪的是港股通50指数（930931），该指数从通过港股通机制可交易的上市公 司中选取市值最大的50家作为指数样本，侧重金融、非必需性消费及资讯科技等行业。指数样本结合了 高成长性和低估值特性，以反映大市值港股的整体表现。成分证券以流动性高的行业龙头为主，兼具新 经济与传统经济领域的代表性。 每日经济新闻 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 1月23日，港股通50ETF（159712）涨超1.2%，港股盈利增速或迎修复。 港股通50ETF（159712）跟踪的是港股通50指数（930931），该指数从港股通范围内选取市值最大的50 家上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖新经济与传统经济领域，行业配置上侧重金融、非必需性消费及资 讯科技等，以反映兼具高成长性和低估值特性的港股通核心上市公司证券的整体表现。 平安证券指出，港股盈利增速预计于2026年上半年步入修复通道，结构上，互联网平台竞争趋缓，一季 度起非必需性消费盈利拖累明显减轻；资讯科技、医疗保健盈利增速维持较高水平，年内前低后高。此 外，上半年材料、地产建筑行业盈利增速水平较高。AI应用商业化进程加快，港股科技板块估值性价 比突出。 ...