Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks from the analyst-recommended stock pool based on both fundamental and technical aspects, focusing on stocks with fundamental support and technical resonance[13][15]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on events such as analyst earnings forecast upgrades, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15]. - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the stocks in the analyst-recommended stock pool from both fundamental and technical dimensions[15]. - **Step 3**: Select stocks that exhibit both fundamental support and technical resonance to construct the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio[15]. - **Backtesting Period**: 2010-01-01 to 2025-06-30, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state[15]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively combines fundamental and technical analysis to select outperforming stocks, demonstrating significant excess returns over the benchmark index[15]. Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days, indicating the stock's momentum and trend-following potential[22]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Formula**: $$ \text{250-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[22]. - **Interpretation**: If the latest closing price sets a new high, the 250-Day New High Distance is 0; if the latest closing price falls from the new high, the distance is positive, indicating the extent of the decline[22]. - **Screening Criteria**: Stocks that have set a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days are filtered based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[22][23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, which are significant in the Hong Kong stock market[20]. Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day New High Distance Factor**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dividend assets have shown strong performance, rivaling the technology sector, with significant increases in key dividend indices over the past year [1][4]. Performance of Dividend Indices - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend (CNY) and the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility indices have reached historical highs, with annual increases of 31.65% and 33.57% respectively, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Total Return Index, which rose by 28.02% during the same period [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The divergence between the technology and dividend sectors began in October 2025, influenced by external factors such as the escalating US-China tariff disputes and government shutdown risks, leading to a shift in investor sentiment towards more defensive dividend assets [4][5]. - The technology sector's high valuations and lack of new catalysts during a policy and earnings vacuum have prompted funds to move towards more reasonably valued dividend stocks [4]. Southbound Capital Inflows - Despite market volatility, southbound capital has consistently flowed into Hong Kong stocks, with net inflows exceeding 1.3 trillion HKD in 2025, marking a record high since the launch of the Stock Connect [6][7]. - The financial, energy, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications sectors have attracted the most southbound capital, indicating a growing interest in dividend assets [7]. Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance capital has increasingly targeted dividend assets, with 36 instances of stake acquisitions in 2025, surpassing previous highs and focusing on stable, high-dividend sectors such as banking and utilities [8][9]. - The dividend yields of the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend (CNY) and the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility indices stand at 5.53% and 5.69%, significantly higher than comparable A-share indices [9]. Investment Strategy - In the current low-interest-rate environment, the dividend yields from Hong Kong stocks present a compelling alternative to domestic bonds, which yield only 1.81% [9]. - The Hong Kong dividend ETFs have shown strong performance, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend ETF achieving a 69.51% return since its inception, outperforming its benchmark [15][16].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed little change, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closing at 26,696 points and 9,461 points, respectively, both up by 0.2% [1] - Total trading volume was HKD 210.2 billion, slightly lower than the previous day's HKD 214.8 billion, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] - Real estate, construction, finance, and telecommunications sectors saw increases of 1.4%, 0.8%, and 0.6%, while non-essential consumer goods, energy, and healthcare sectors declined by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.1% [1] Company Highlights - XPeng Motors (9868 HK) surged by 17.9%, reaching a one-year high, following the launch of its new generation IRON robot, expanding its business from electric vehicles to robotaxis and humanoid robots [4] - WuXi AppTec (2269 HK) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (981 HK) both experienced declines of 2.7% [1] - Weichai Power (3393 HK) saw a significant increase of 6.9%, with trading volume doubling, attributed to the rising demand in the AI industry and data center electricity consumption [5] Industry Dynamics - In the automotive sector, China's October vehicle sales increased by 8.8% year-on-year to 3.32 million units, a decrease from September's 14.9% growth [3] - The healthcare sector's Hang Seng index fell by 0.2%, with major companies showing little volatility; however, BeiGene (6160 HK) rose by 1.0% after reporting strong Q3 results [4] - The renewable energy sector experienced fluctuations, with notable declines in the photovoltaic segment, including Xinyi Solar (968 HK) down by 2.0% and Xinyi Energy (3868 HK) down by 1.5% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (code: 159125) aims to closely track the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which includes leading technology companies in the Hong Kong market with core competitiveness [1] Group 1: Index Composition and Focus - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index selects 30 leading technology companies based on market capitalization, R&D investment, and revenue growth, focusing on "hard technology" and "new economy" sectors [2] - The index requires constituent stocks to have a compound revenue growth rate exceeding 10% over the past two years or an R&D expense ratio above 5%, ensuring a balance between scale and growth potential [2] - As of September 30, the index's sector weightings include 43% in consumer discretionary, 42% in information technology, and 12% in healthcare, with the top ten constituents accounting for 79% of the index [2] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has shown strong long-term performance, with a cumulative return of 209.77% and an annualized return of 14.03% since 2017, outperforming similar indices [3] - The index exhibits high elasticity, with an annualized volatility of 33.78%, indicating relatively high fluctuations [4] Group 3: Valuation and Market Trends - As of September 30, the index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.45, positioned at the 39th percentile since inception, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to global tech indices like NASDAQ and ChiNext [6] - Hong Kong's technology companies have become significant players in stock buybacks, with a total buyback amount of 136.7 billion HKD in the first nine months of the year, indicating strong institutional confidence in long-term opportunities [8] - The influx of mainland capital into the Hong Kong market has reached a record high of 1.17 trillion HKD in net inflows this year, with technology stocks being a primary focus for investment [8]

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model aims to construct a portfolio by combining fundamental and technical analysis of stocks recommended by analysts. The stock pool is built based on analyst recommendation events such as upward earnings forecast revisions, initial coverage, and exceeding expectations in research report titles. Stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected to form the portfolio. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[13][14][19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identifies stocks that have reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days. The screening process includes criteria such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs. The calculation formula for the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate the degree of fallback from the high[20][22][23] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor evaluates stocks based on the following metrics: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day return within the sample pool - Price path stability: Comprehensive scoring based on price displacement ratio and average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Continuity of new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days, selecting the top 50 ranked stocks[23] - The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model is evaluated positively for its ability to generate significant excess returns over the Hang Seng Index, with a robust annualized return of 19.11% during the backtesting period. The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor is also positively assessed for its effectiveness in identifying stocks with strong momentum and stability, leveraging the proven efficacy of momentum and trend-following strategies in the Hong Kong market[13][14][20] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" model show annualized return of 19.11%, excess return of 18.48%, and information ratio (IR) of 1.22 over the entire sample period. The model also demonstrated a maximum relative drawdown of 23.73% and tracking error of 14.55%[19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening" factor identified 15 stocks in the cyclical sector, 10 in technology, 7 in pharmaceuticals, 4 in consumer goods, 3 in financials, and 2 in manufacturing. Specific stocks include CGN Mining, which achieved a 250-day new high distance of 0% and a 250-day return of 129.4%[22][23][28]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) followed the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 18, reducing the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, indicating potential further declines in interest rates due to the Fed's ongoing easing policy [4][12]. - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) appreciated slightly against the US dollar, with the exchange rate at 7.7839 on September 29, compared to 7.7963 at the end of August, reflecting a stable banking system surplus of HKD 54.2 billion [13]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 6.16% over the past month, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 11.45% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 5.66% [5][15]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Index reached 12.06 times, placing it in the 79.7% percentile of the past decade, while the average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 1.23 times, in the 83.6% percentile [19][21]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The materials sector saw the highest increase, with an 18.4% rise, followed by non-essential consumer goods at 17.8%, while telecommunications experienced the largest decline [15][17]. - Notable performers in the sub-sectors included other metals and minerals, food additives, and online retailers, which rose by 39.9%, 31.5%, and 31.2% respectively [17]. Group 4: Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflows reached over HKD 160 billion in September, marking a four-year monthly high, with total inflows for the year surpassing HKD 1 trillion for the first time [25][27]. - The sectors attracting the most inflows included non-essential consumer goods, healthcare, and information technology [27].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing over HKD 1 trillion in net inflows year-to-date, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a potential record high for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Connect has reached HKD 60.8 billion, accounting for 24.5% of the overall market [4]. - In August 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a net inflow of HKD 112.2 billion, marking the ninth highest monthly inflow on record [6]. - The Southbound trading of ETFs has seen an average daily trading volume of HKD 3.8 billion in the first half of 2025, setting a new semi-annual record [6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The financial sector remains the largest holding in the Hang Seng Stock Connect, accounting for 32%, followed by information technology at 20% and consumer discretionary at 16% [6]. - The healthcare sector has seen the largest increase in weight from 3% to 7% year-to-date, while consumer discretionary and information technology sectors have increased by 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively [6]. Group 3: Earnings and Growth Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market has stabilized, with positive earnings growth in the first half of 2025, showing revenue and profit growth rates of 1.9% and 4.6%, respectively [8]. - The sectors of technology, healthcare, and materials are expected to maintain high growth, while some sectors like energy and utilities are still under pressure [8]. - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a turning point in earnings growth, with expectations for a rebound in previously underperforming sectors [8]. Group 4: Investment Trends - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong stock market, with internet stocks expected to benefit significantly [9]. - The demand for AI cloud services is driving revenue growth, with private cloud service providers outpacing state-owned telecom companies for the first time in four years [10].

Market Outlook and Strategy - The improvement in liquidity narrative is expected to support a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, narrowing the gap with the rapidly rising A-share market [1][3] - The current earnings forecast rate for Hong Kong stocks is at its highest since 2022, indicating a positive outlook for earnings improvement [1][6] - It is recommended to focus on sectors that differ from A-shares, with a suggested investment sequence of innovative drugs first, followed by the internet sector, and finally new consumption [1][7] Sector Recommendations - Recommended sectors include innovative drugs, internet, and non-bank financials, with specific indices provided for each [1][9] - The innovative drug sector is highlighted due to alleviated liquidity risks and high growth potential [9] - The internet sector is seen as having fully priced in earnings pressures, making it a potential area for growth in a loosening liquidity environment [9] - Non-bank financials are considered a good base choice in a bull market, with valuations significantly lower than A-shares, indicating potential for catch-up [9] Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.89% [12][15] - The AH premium index expanded to 125.33, reflecting positive market sentiment [12] - The majority of sectors experienced gains, particularly non-essential consumption, information technology, and telecommunications, while materials, energy, and utilities lagged [15] Micro Liquidity Analysis - Average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 280.3 billion HKD, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [18] - There was a net inflow of 179 billion HKD from southbound funds, primarily directed towards financial, information technology, and healthcare sectors [29] - Local ETFs saw a net inflow of 5.5 billion HKD last week, contributing to a total net inflow of 45.1 billion HKD year-to-date [24][27] Earnings Disclosure - As of August 25, 2023, 699 Hong Kong-listed companies have issued earnings warnings, with 41% indicating positive earnings revisions, the highest rate in three years [6][8] - The technology, pharmaceutical, and new consumption sectors in Hong Kong have a higher representation compared to A-shares, suggesting potential for continued earnings improvement [6] Valuation Levels - The forward P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Index is currently at 11.6X, placing it in the 69.3 percentile since 2020, while the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 19.3X, in the 24.6 percentile since its inception [33][35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that both domestic and foreign capital are flowing into the Hong Kong stock market, leading to an increase in consensus among investors [1] - Southbound funds have net bought a total of 902 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks this year, with technology stocks being the main focus of investment [1] - The Hong Kong local ETFs have seen a net inflow of 32.4 billion HKD as of August 8 this year [3] Group 2 - Over the past week, the information technology sector had the highest net inflow of 9.061 billion HKD, followed by non-essential consumer goods at 7.299 billion HKD and the financial sector at 7.266 billion HKD [2] - Since September 2022 until August 8, overseas funds have net flowed into Hong Kong stocks totaling 10.2 billion USD [5]

Group 1 - On August 5, 2025, southbound capital transactions reached HKD 129.701 billion, accounting for 56.54% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index, with a net inflow of HKD 23.426 billion, setting a new single-day net buying record since April 9, 2025 [1] - The technology and non-essential consumer sectors topped the net buying list, indicating a growing confidence and allocation enthusiasm from southbound capital towards Hong Kong's technology and new economy sectors [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen increased capital attention, with the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) attracting HKD 3.026 billion in the past week, averaging daily turnover of HKD 4.797 billion, making it the only product tracking the index to accumulate over HKD 2.6 billion during the same period [1] Group 2 - As of August 5, 2025, the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) reached a record size of HKD 30.907 billion and 4.2356 billion shares, marking historical highs and continuous growth over four trading days [2] - The ETF has a broad investor base, with over 160,000 investors holding it, making it one of the two ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index with more than 70,000 holders, reflecting strong market recognition [2] - Despite recent performance pressures due to a price war in the food delivery sector, positive signals are emerging as regulatory discussions have led to commitments from delivery platforms to standardize promotional behaviors, potentially alleviating negative impacts on the technology sector [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, with its top five constituents being Tencent Holdings, NetEase, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Kuaishou, representing competitive industry leaders across key sectors such as internet platforms, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and AI [3] - With the support of southbound capital and the gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies, adverse factors hindering the development of Hong Kong's technology sector are expected to diminish, suggesting a potential return of core investment value [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is at a low of 22% over the past five years, indicating a significant investment window [3]