资产间相关性对A股的影响 策略专题研究 研究团队：邓宇林、包承超、肖遥志 报告日期：2026年02月27日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 1、美股对A股的影响：从相关性角度看，周度视角下，A股美股的相关性提升有利于A美共振上行；长期视角 下，A股需要一个A股美股长期低相关的环境。 ➢ 2、多权益资产相关性：长期看，欧美权益市场内部的相关性较高，亚洲市场内部的相关性较高。长期看，各国 权益间的低相关性对A股较为有利。 ➢ 3、多资产相关性：权益、黄金、银、铜、油等资产长期呈现明显正相关；美元指数、债券与以上资产负相关； 整体而言，长期看，A股市场的较好表现需要多资产相关性处于下降的过程或者处于中低位水平。 ➢ 风险提示：全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。市场流动性超预期变化。历史数据 不代表未来。 01 资产间相关性对A股的影响 02 风险提示 目 录 C O N T E N T S 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 图表：当前市场重新进入中波动阶段 资料来源：wind，国联民生证券研究所 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 ...

26日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，随后集体翻绿，临近午盘深指翻红。截至午间收盘，沪指跌 0.08%，深证成指涨0.28%，创业板指跌0.39%。全市半日成交额1.65万亿，近3000只个股下跌。 | L | | w A股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 港股 美股 | 全球 商品 | 外汇 | 汁 三 | | 已为您生成昨日市场智评 | | | | 查看 | | 内地股票 △ ◎ | | | | | | 行情 | | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | | 上证指数 | | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | | 4144.08 | | 14516.11 | 1830.23 | | | -3.15 -0.08% | | +40.25 +0.28% | +10.51 +0.58% | | | 万得全A | | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | | 6912.53 | | 3341.74 | 1551.46 | | | +12.54 +0.18% -13.08 -0.39% | | | +4.26 +0.28% | | | 沪深300 | | 中证500 | 中证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook of foreign investment banks towards China's economy in 2026, suggesting a favorable environment for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to policy support, improving corporate profits, and capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "N" shaped trend in 2026, with a continuation of the upward trend from late last year into the Spring Festival [2] - External liquidity easing may be nearing its end, and while the AI industry shows medium-term promise, short-term discrepancies between reality and expectations may impact the market [2] - Despite potential market fluctuations in the second quarter, the upward trend of the A-share market is likely to remain intact due to the ongoing recovery of domestic demand [2] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Investors should pay attention to the development of the AI industry, particularly innovations in AI applications, as this is crucial for the A-share market in 2026 [3] - Marginal improvements in China's macroeconomy, including real estate and consumption, are also significant, with indicators showing positive trends [3] - The relationship between global re-inflation and liquidity is important, as the global inflation cycle is ahead of China's, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be key indicators to watch [3] Group 3: Capital Inflows - The overall upward trend in the market since the "924" rally has created a profit-making effect, attracting more capital recognition towards A-shares due to China's competitive advantages and economic resilience [3] - There is a clear trend of incremental capital inflows into A-shares, with both domestic and foreign investors viewing opportunities as outweighing risks [3] Group 4: Currency and Asset Revaluation - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to be sustained, positively impacting the capital market [4] - The expectation of RMB appreciation may lead to a return of funds previously allocated to global assets, contributing to a potential "Asset Revaluation 2.0" in China [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in three areas: the AI industry, particularly infrastructure and hardware; cyclical sectors with ongoing commodity price increases; and the pharmaceutical sector, which may benefit from AI advancements [6] - The technology sector is highlighted as requiring careful selection for investment, with significant opportunities anticipated in technology, cyclical sectors, real estate, and certain consumer segments [6]

kg 1 Hwabao WP Func 20 P 3A系列ETF当日场内行' 中证A100ETF基金 A50ETF华宝 A 159596 562000 +0.47% +0.83% 数据来源：沪深交易所等，行情数据截至2026.2.25收盘，A50ETF华宝于2024.3.18上市，中 市，A500ETF华宝于2024.12.2上市。 华宇基余集结中证"A系列"三大宽基ETF,为投资者 中国的多样选择。 跟踪中证A50指数 A50ETF华宝 15959 漂亮50! 聚焦50大核心龙头 021216 联接A 当日大市行情 +0.72% +1.29% 上证指数 深证成指 两市成交额2.46万亿元 较上一日+261 全市场个股涨跌数 3748 및 127只 =1 上涨 == 资金净流入TOP3行业（申万- - 21 电子 有色金属 +24.77亿元 +70.8亿元 t 数据来源:沪深交易所等,行情数据截至2026.2.25收盘。 机构观点 东莞证券: A股在春节后往往迎来高胜率窗I 概率显著提升 从技术分析角度看,沪指日K线收出阳线,成功站上 止跌企稳迹象。RSI、KDJ等短期指标从超卖区域反 修复需求得到部分释放。 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯 2月24日，A股三大指数节后首日集体上涨，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.87%，深成指 涨1.36%，创业板指涨0.99%，北证50指数涨0.37%，沪深京三市成交额22182亿元，较前一个交易日放 量2192亿元，三市超4000只个股上涨。 ...

责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 ...

责任编辑：尉旖涵 责任编辑：尉旖涵 ...

为什么我说 “打工，不如投资” 呢？因为二级的红利每个人都有机会吃到。如果你在 AI 或者显卡需求刚火的时候就买了英伟达，那么收益率其实未必比不上 BTC。而你想吃到这波红利，其实只需要一个能买到 $NVDA 的券商账户。如今或许机器人赛道的二级也远没到顶今天看到这条微博，我的第一反应就是 “或许机器人板块还能继续涨到年中”。A 股这边的逻辑，就是老美要有的我们也要有，加上国内股市这轮牛感觉远远还没结束，两会在三月，三月或许会出台一系列相关政策促使机器人板块进一步繁荣吧毕竟，宇树都还没正式 IPO 发行，龙头还没上架，你跟我说机器人见顶？不会吧不会吧现在我们想吃到红利就更简单了，甚至不用开通账户，直接买 onchain stocks 都行，虽然目前还有一些费率问题和流动性的问题，但对于大部分小户来说已经可以满足。我有券商账户，还是会选择券商买费率便宜，但是有时候为了速度 / 加杠杆的需求，还是会用一下 hyperliquid 之类的来开一单。而国内的股票由于政策关系，onchain 的部分很难操作，但中国公民开通 A 股券商也没啥难度，还是挺适合去试试水的币圈肯定还是会有钱赚的，我也还持有一些 BTC 现货， ...

Core Viewpoints - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced expectations of technology leading the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5] - The outlook for A-shares in 2026 is expected to be a "sideways fluctuation with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while being cautious of rapid bull markets that may lead to sharp declines [2][6] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology + low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][6] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not in the real estate chain but are related to national strategies in three sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][7] - AI remains a core focus in technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [3][9] - The investment focus for the next 3 to 6 months should be on cyclical and manufacturing sectors, as these align with national strategies and economic transformation [7][8] Market Dynamics - The core drivers of the current market uptrend are improvements in national governance and stronger expectations for technology-led economic growth, with significant achievements in diplomacy, defense, and trade contributing to economic resilience [4][5] - The market is currently at a critical juncture around the 4100-point level, with the need for new drivers to support further upward movement, as previous gains have largely reflected the core drivers [6][12] - The transition from a "dumbbell" market structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips indicates a shift in risk appetite, with low-volatility, high-dividend stocks losing their appeal [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI sector is expected to experience a period of consolidation and differentiation, with the potential for long-term growth remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][10] - The public fund commission rate reform is prompting a strategic shift in brokerage research departments, moving towards comprehensive service for institutional clients beyond just public funds [17] - The securities research industry is seen as a field of continuous learning and growth, with a call for new talent to join and contribute to the evolving landscape [18]

一、周一A股即将开市，今天A股继续走低还是将向上走高迎来大涨呢？我在上周五晚上9:40已发文明确表示周一A股将走高收涨，并或有望站上4100点，经 过周末复盘，我现在更加相信我自己的观点了，我相信今天A股必涨无疑，今天A股只有华山一条上行路，不可能向下走低，这点大家相信我吧。 三、另外今天港股恒生指数至少将以超1.2%的涨幅开局，也就是高开在26878点之上，最终或将以超2%的涨幅收盘。 L e 二、今天A股开盘就将大涨，这点我是比较相信的，不可能以跌幅开盘，如果低开就意味着我的观点错误了，我相信上证指数或高开在4085点之上，盘中沪 深两指将继续震荡上行，最终将以较大涨幅收盘并收红K线图，极有可能将涨超1%，沪指大概率将收复4100点，个股也将是红多绿少的状态。 ...