Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the "mini LABUBU" by Pop Mart has generated significant attention but has not positively impacted the secondary market, leading to a sharp decline in prices for LABUBU series products [1][3]. Group 1: Product Performance and Market Reaction - The average transaction price of the third generation LABUBU products has dropped by 80% from its peak over the last 90 days, with the new "mini LABUBU" experiencing a 30% price decline for its best-selling L model [3]. - Pop Mart's stock price fell over 19.5% within two weeks, from HKD 339.8 to HKD 273.4, reflecting market concerns [3]. - The company's supply chain revolution has resulted in a tenfold increase in plush toy production capacity, reaching 30 million units per month by August 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Business Model Shift - Pop Mart has shifted its business model from maintaining product scarcity to ensuring consumer rights, explicitly stating a focus on selling "good products" rather than "investment products" [4]. - The large-scale replenishment strategy has disrupted the speculative behavior of resellers, leading to panic selling in the secondary market [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenues of RMB 13.75 billion from self-owned products, accounting for 99.1% of total revenue, with significant contributions from various IPs [5]. - The financial data indicates a heavy reliance on specific IPs, with the THE MONSTERS series contributing RMB 4.81 billion, nearly one-third of total revenue [6]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The expansion of the supply chain has led to a decline in prices for other IP products, with significant drops observed in various series, such as a 35% decrease for the "Good Dream Meteorological Bureau" series [5]. - The price restructuring, while temporarily suppressing stock prices, has created a more favorable purchasing environment for genuine consumers [5].

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market prices for the mini LABUBU have declined, impacting market sentiment towards Pop Mart, despite the company's efforts to increase production and combat scalping [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The mini LABUBU series sold out quickly upon release, leading to a significant spike in secondary market prices, which later fell sharply within a week [1][2]. - The prices of first, second, and third generation LABUBU products in the secondary market have also decreased, with the third generation even experiencing slight depreciation [2][3]. - Following the decline in secondary market prices, Pop Mart's stock price also saw a minor correction, although it remained above levels prior to the release of the half-year performance report [2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - Pop Mart is actively increasing production capacity to meet genuine market demand, with plush toy production capacity reportedly increased to over ten times that of the same period last year, reaching approximately 30 million units in August [2]. - The expansion of production capacity is expected to positively impact the availability of LABUBU and other IP products for consumers, which could benefit the company's long-term performance [3]. Group 3: Long-term Value Considerations - The decline in secondary market prices is viewed as a sign of increased production capacity and a move towards making products more accessible to consumers, which is essential for the sustainable development of the company [3]. - Investors emphasize that the long-term value of the company should not be judged solely based on the fluctuations in secondary market prices of a single IP, as controlling secondary market premiums is crucial for maintaining consumer access and reducing speculation [3].

Core Insights - The LABUBU secondary market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping sharply from initial highs shortly after new product releases [1][2][9] - The stock price of Pop Mart has declined over 15% since reaching a historical high of 339.8 HKD on August 26, reflecting the negative sentiment in the market [1][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The release of the MINI version LABUBU blind box on August 28 saw initial resale prices soar to over 1800 RMB, but prices quickly fell as supply outpaced demand [2][11] - Consumers are experiencing shorter "window periods" for selling new products, with the resale value dropping significantly within days of release [2][11] - The rapid introduction of new products has disrupted the supply-demand balance, leading to consumer fatigue and a decrease in speculative buying behavior [11][12] Group 2: Seller Experiences - Sellers like Liu Hui have reported significant losses, with some LABUBU items selling for over 30% below their purchase price, leading to total losses exceeding 10,000 RMB [3][5] - The influx of counterfeit products has further complicated the market, causing hesitation among buyers and impacting sales for legitimate sellers [7][12] - Yellow market participants are adjusting their strategies, focusing on high-demand items while avoiding overstocking less popular products [7][12] Group 3: Company Performance - Pop Mart's market capitalization has decreased by approximately 295.45 billion HKD as of September 8, indicating a substantial loss in investor confidence [9][12] - The company's strategy of releasing multiple new products in a short timeframe has been criticized for contributing to market instability and consumer dissatisfaction [11][12] - There are ongoing consumer concerns regarding the company's supply management practices, with accusations of maintaining artificial scarcity while simultaneously attempting to curb scalping [12]

Core Viewpoint - The trading prices of Labubu in the second-hand market are experiencing significant fluctuations, with a general downward trend observed in recent transactions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The average transaction price for the Labubu products is declining, with more sellers expecting further price drops [2]. - The "Front High Energy Series" of Labubu, which includes a hidden version and six regular versions priced at 99 yuan each, has seen its regular versions trading between 90-130 yuan, with some even falling below the original price [4]. - The hidden version "Ben Wo" was once a star product, reaching a peak price of nearly 5000 yuan, representing a premium of nearly 50 times its original price [6]. Group 2: Recent Price Changes - As of September 10, 2025, the second-hand market price for the hidden version "Ben Wo" has dropped to the range of 700-800 yuan, showing a clear downward trend over the past 30 days [7]. - The "Mini Labubu" series, launched on August 28, 2025, has also seen a decline in second-hand market interest, with prices now ranging from 80-650 yuan [14]. Group 3: Impact of Official Actions - The decline in the second-hand market is partly attributed to a sudden restock by Pop Mart on June 18, which included a global pre-sale of the Labubu 3.0 series, with expected sales of 400-500 million yuan [18]. - Following this restock, the prices in the second-hand market plummeted, with some resellers reporting a drop in recovery prices from 1500-2800 yuan to 650-800 yuan for a full set of blind boxes [18]. - Some resellers have paused purchases, indicating a significant market downturn and a wait for a potential recovery [19]. Group 4: Company Performance - Despite the fluctuations in the second-hand market, Pop Mart's stock price has been on the rise this year, with a market capitalization around 370 billion HKD, although it has seen a decline from 300 HKD to 270 HKD recently [19].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has been declining, with a drop of over 7% recently, reflecting market concerns about its sustainability and valuation risks despite strong financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 8, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.78%, closing at 288.6 HKD per share [1]. - The short-selling data for Pop Mart has significantly increased, with short positions rising from 285,800 shares on August 29 to 6,266,200 shares by the previous Friday [2]. Group 2: Product Performance - The resale prices of the mini LABUBU figures have decreased significantly, with second-hand prices dropping to between 1,400 and 1,850 RMB, and some less popular styles falling to as low as 81 RMB [1][2]. - The mini LABUBU series was launched on August 28, with an original price of 79 RMB per blind box, but the average resale price has decreased by 60% from its initial peak [1][2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion RMB, up 362.8% [2]. - Despite the strong financial results, some institutions express concerns about the long-term sustainability and short-term valuation risks of Pop Mart [2][3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The stock has seen a significant price increase of 588% over the past 12 months, leading to profit-taking pressures in the short term [3]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that while the net profit growth exceeded expectations, it only "roughly met" the elevated expectations from buyers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Pop Mart, is experiencing significant revenue and profit growth driven by the popularity of its Labubu series, although the secondary market prices for these products have started to decline due to increased supply [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 4.56 billion yuan, with a projected revenue exceeding 13.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a growth of over 200% [1]. - The net profit for the first half of 2024 was 920 million yuan, with expectations for the first half of 2025 to exceed 4.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 350% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Labubu series has seen a staggering revenue increase of 726.6% in 2024, leading to heightened consumer demand and even conflicts in stores [2]. - Following the restocking of Labubu products, the secondary market prices have dropped significantly, with the price of a complete set of Labubu 3.0 boxes falling from 1,100-1,500 yuan to 600-900 yuan [2][3]. - The willingness of players to sell their products has increased, further driving down secondary market prices, as many consumers are now able to purchase at lower prices [3].

Core Insights - The recent restock of Labubu 3.0 series products by Pop Mart has led to a decrease in prices in the secondary market, indicating a shift in supply and demand dynamics [2] - Pop Mart's stock price has experienced significant fluctuations, with a 100% increase from March to mid-June, followed by a drop of over 5% on June 19 [4] Group 1: Product Restock and Market Response - Pop Mart has optimized its sales process by launching online pre-sales for the Labubu series to enhance consumer experience and mitigate the impact of scalpers [1] - The Labubu 3.0 series has seen a high demand, with a pre-sale period extending until September 22, leading to system overloads during the purchasing process [1] - Following the restock, the price of Labubu 3.0 in the secondary market has dropped significantly, with prices ranging from 600 to 900 yuan, down from 1100 to 1500 yuan prior to the restock [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has shown a remarkable increase of over 11 times since the beginning of 2024, but has recently faced a decline after a period of rapid growth [4] - The stock price had been on an upward trend, with a 100% increase noted from March to mid-June, but a notable drop occurred on June 19 [4]