Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in the blind box market, highlighting how once sought-after products are now being sold at significant discounts in discount supermarkets like Haote Mai [1][4][8] - The decline in prices for popular blind boxes, such as Labubu, is attributed to increased production capacity and a surplus of inventory, leading to a drop in secondary market prices [2][4][6] Market Dynamics - Consumers are increasingly drawn to low-cost blind boxes for the experience of unboxing rather than the value of the items themselves, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [5][6] - The pricing strategy for blind boxes is influenced by the popularity of the IP (intellectual property), with high-demand items commanding higher prices while lesser-known IPs are sold at lower prices [7][8] Inventory Management - The industry faces challenges with inventory turnover, where popular items sell quickly while less popular ones linger, leading to potential financial strain [11][12] - Brands are adopting flexible order models and utilizing AI tools to predict demand and manage inventory more effectively, reducing the risk of overproduction [9][10] Cultural Relevance - The article emphasizes the importance of cultural storytelling in sustaining the popularity of IPs, suggesting that products rooted in local culture may resonate more with consumers [15][20] - Successful examples include museum collaborations that transform traditional artifacts into trendy blind box products, enhancing cultural engagement and commercial success [16][19] Future Trends - The blind box market is expected to evolve, focusing on quality and storytelling rather than just novelty, with brands needing to build emotional connections with consumers [20][21] - The competition will increasingly hinge on supply chain efficiency and the ability to respond to market trends quickly, as well as the capacity to create compelling narratives around products [20][21]

Group 1 - Pop Mart's stock price has significantly declined, dropping 8.49% to 200.4 HKD per share on December 8, and further down 5.04% to 190.3 HKD on December 9, marking a cumulative decline of over 43% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD in August [1][16][19] - Despite a remarkable performance with a revenue increase of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, and an even higher growth of 365% to 370% in overseas markets, market confidence has not improved, leading to continuous stock price declines [3][19][28] - The core driver of this growth, the phenomenon IP "Labubu," is perceived to have peaked, raising concerns about the sustainability of future growth and the potential for a critical turning point in the company's growth trajectory [3][19][29] Group 2 - The market premium for Labubu has been declining, with regular items even selling below their original prices. The peak market activity occurred in June, where limited edition figures sold for 1.08 million HKD, but prices have since plummeted [4][20][22] - Following a significant restock announcement on June 18, the average transaction price for Labubu 3.0 series on secondary markets dropped over 60%, with prices stabilizing at more rational levels [6][22][28] - The average transaction price for Labubu 3.0 regular items has fallen below the official retail price, with recent sales averaging 87.7 HKD, down from a peak of nearly 400 HKD [6][22][25] Group 3 - Concerns have arisen regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's high growth, with multiple foreign institutions questioning the reliance on a single blockbuster IP and the uncertainty of the collectible toy lifecycle [13][30][31] - Deutsche Bank highlighted that the production capacity for Labubu has increased dramatically, which may lead to a loss of its scarcity premium, impacting its fashion status and secondary market prices [30] - Morgan Stanley noted a potential slowdown in growth momentum, predicting a significant deceleration in sales growth for Labubu in 2026, despite maintaining a long-term positive outlook on the company's platform capabilities [30][31]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant market potential behind the popularity of collectible toys and IP characters, highlighting a multi-billion market driven by a clear growth logic and lifecycle of successful IPs [2][3]. - It identifies three classic IPs—Hello Kitty, Mickey Mouse, and Pokémon—that have transcended time and become cultural symbols, showcasing their unique growth trajectories and operational strategies [5][6]. - The lifecycle of IPs is categorized into four key stages: birth, breakthrough, sedimentation, and stability, each with distinct characteristics and strategies for maintaining relevance and commercial value [7][9][11]. Group 2 - The global collectible toy market is substantial, with projections indicating a market size of 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, expected to grow to 771.7 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [13]. - The Chinese and Southeast Asian markets are highlighted as having rapid growth, with projected CAGRs of 17% and 20% respectively from 2024 to 2029, contributing nearly half of the global market's new growth [13][15]. - China possesses a rich variety of IP sources, including online literature and domestic animation, which provides fertile ground for IP development, although challenges remain in sustaining long-term influence and fan culture compared to dominant global IPs [15].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 2.16% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - The recent product launches, including the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, as evidenced by low queue numbers during the release [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Consumer Demand - The online sales of the new SKULLPANDA blind boxes showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu's fourth generation dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [6]. - On the Xianyu platform, the average transaction price fell to 104 RMB, with 68% of users expecting further price declines [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is correlated with product market demand, suggesting that the current decline in prices may continue if new IPs are not consistently produced [8]. - The sustainability of the collectible toy market's value relies on diversifying offerings and continuously generating new IPs to meet varying consumer preferences [8].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has been on a downward trend, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 2.16% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [3]. Group 3: Product Demand and Sales - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer demand, with sales figures showing a significant drop compared to previous releases [4]. - The online sales of the new blind box experienced fluctuations, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the popop gold jewelry series also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Sentiment - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu series dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [5]. - A significant portion of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, leading some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely tied to product market demand, emphasizing the importance of continuously producing new IPs to sustain market value [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, leading to a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD, while the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.16% during the same period [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43%, closing at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has seen a continuous decline, indicating a lack of investor confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Product Demand - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of minimal queues for new releases, contrasting sharply with previous sales events [4][5]. - The online sales performance of new products has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in sales numbers, suggesting potential issues with high return rates [5]. Group 3: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products dropping significantly [5]. - A notable percentage of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, prompting some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. Group 4: Industry Insights - An economist highlighted the correlation between toy companies' stock prices and market demand, warning that the current situation reflects an irrational bubble that could lead to prolonged price declines [7]. - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies must continuously innovate and diversify their offerings to meet varying consumer preferences [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has significantly declined, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, with a market capitalization now below 350 billion HKD, indicating a loss of over 100 billion HKD in value since the peak [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2] - The stock has been on a downward trend since reaching its peak on August 26, despite the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.16% during the same period [2] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - JPMorgan downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [2] - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of only 10 people queuing for the new release [2][3] Group 3: Sales Performance and Market Trends - The online sales of the new blind box series showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, suggesting high return rates [3] - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at the Beijing store [3] - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products falling significantly [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Economic experts suggest that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely linked to product market demand, with current trends indicating a potential irrational bubble in Labubu's pricing [5] - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies need to continuously produce new IPs to meet diverse consumer demands and support stock prices through performance [6]