今年6月，随着新版Labubu上市，以及泡泡玛特产能扩大，Labubu在二手市场的价格下降。据千岛6月中旬数据显示，Labubu3.0整盒成交价格跌45%，隐 藏款价格跌超38%。 100元可以买几个潮玩盲盒？ 在泡泡玛特门店，只能买一个，甚至可能一个都买不到。但在好特卖，可以买到5个盲盒，甚至更多。就连今年爆火的Labubu盲盒，都能在好特卖买到。 "29元就能买到一个正版Labubu（原价69.9元），价格这么香，直接端盒！"一位消费者在社交平台分享道。 得物交易数据显示，Labubu隐藏款"本我ID"成交价从1142元降至609元。新一代Labubu4.0系列因品控问题引发不满，如今普通款在得物大多处于60~90元 的价格区间，隐藏款为204元，且还在回落。一些不好卖的老款Labubu，出现在好特卖等渠道。 《天下网商》发现，近期在好特卖等折扣零食连锁品牌门店的"黄金C位"，众多知名潮玩IP，如奥特曼、哪吒、皮卡丘等，以低至5折、甚至两三折的价 格，被摆在门店最中央的位置，成为折扣超市招揽人气的核心产品。 好特卖超市门口的折扣盲盒，《天下网商》拍摄 为什么曾经"一盒难求"的盲盒，会成为特卖超市招揽客流的 ...

12月8日，港股市场的"潮玩明星"泡泡玛特遭遇重挫，股价大幅低开低走。截至12月8日收盘，其股价暴 跌8.49%，报收于200.4港元/股；12月9日，公司股价进一步下跌5.04%至190.3港元/股，距今年8月创下 的历史高点（339.8港元/股）累计跌幅已超过43%。 （资料来源：wind资 讯） 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：新消费主张/cici 泡泡玛特当前的股价颓势与其亮眼的业绩表现形成了鲜明反差。就在不久前，公司发布的2025年第三季 度未经审核业务状况显示，其整体收益同比激增245%至250%，其中海外市场收益增幅更高达365%至 370%，呈现爆发式增长。 然而，这份"成绩单"并未能提振市场信心。相反，股价在业绩发布前后便持续下挫。这种背离的核心原 因在于，敏锐的资本市场关注的不是过去的爆发，而是未来的动能。市场担忧，驱动此次惊人增长的核 心引擎——现象级IP"Labubu"的热度可能已达顶峰，公司正站在增长曲线关键的"拐点"之上。 核心爆款IP Labubu市场溢价持续消退、常规款甚至跌破原价 Labubu，这只 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant market potential behind the popularity of collectible toys and IP characters, highlighting a multi-billion market driven by a clear growth logic and lifecycle of successful IPs [2][3]. - It identifies three classic IPs—Hello Kitty, Mickey Mouse, and Pokémon—that have transcended time and become cultural symbols, showcasing their unique growth trajectories and operational strategies [5][6]. - The lifecycle of IPs is categorized into four key stages: birth, breakthrough, sedimentation, and stability, each with distinct characteristics and strategies for maintaining relevance and commercial value [7][9][11]. Group 2 - The global collectible toy market is substantial, with projections indicating a market size of 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, expected to grow to 771.7 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [13]. - The Chinese and Southeast Asian markets are highlighted as having rapid growth, with projected CAGRs of 17% and 20% respectively from 2024 to 2029, contributing nearly half of the global market's new growth [13][15]. - China possesses a rich variety of IP sources, including online literature and domestic animation, which provides fertile ground for IP development, although challenges remain in sustaining long-term influence and fan culture compared to dominant global IPs [15].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 2.16% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - The recent product launches, including the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, as evidenced by low queue numbers during the release [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Consumer Demand - The online sales of the new SKULLPANDA blind boxes showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu's fourth generation dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [6]. - On the Xianyu platform, the average transaction price fell to 104 RMB, with 68% of users expecting further price declines [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is correlated with product market demand, suggesting that the current decline in prices may continue if new IPs are not consistently produced [8]. - The sustainability of the collectible toy market's value relies on diversifying offerings and continuously generating new IPs to meet varying consumer preferences [8].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has been on a downward trend, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 2.16% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [3]. Group 3: Product Demand and Sales - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer demand, with sales figures showing a significant drop compared to previous releases [4]. - The online sales of the new blind box experienced fluctuations, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the popop gold jewelry series also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Sentiment - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu series dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [5]. - A significant portion of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, leading some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely tied to product market demand, emphasizing the importance of continuously producing new IPs to sustain market value [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, leading to a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD, while the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.16% during the same period [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43%, closing at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [1]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has seen a continuous decline, indicating a lack of investor confidence [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Product Demand - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of minimal queues for new releases, contrasting sharply with previous sales events [4][5]. - The online sales performance of new products has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in sales numbers, suggesting potential issues with high return rates [5]. Group 3: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products dropping significantly [5]. - A notable percentage of users on trading platforms believe prices will continue to decline, prompting some resellers to pause their purchasing strategies [5]. Group 4: Industry Insights - An economist highlighted the correlation between toy companies' stock prices and market demand, warning that the current situation reflects an irrational bubble that could lead to prolonged price declines [7]. - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies must continuously innovate and diversify their offerings to meet varying consumer preferences [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has significantly declined, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, with a market capitalization now below 350 billion HKD, indicating a loss of over 100 billion HKD in value since the peak [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, resulting in a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2] - The stock has been on a downward trend since reaching its peak on August 26, despite the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.16% during the same period [2] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - JPMorgan downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [2] - Recent product launches, such as the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, with reports of only 10 people queuing for the new release [2][3] Group 3: Sales Performance and Market Trends - The online sales of the new blind box series showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, suggesting high return rates [3] - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at the Beijing store [3] - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with average transaction prices for Labubu products falling significantly [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Economic experts suggest that the stock price of collectible toy companies is closely linked to product market demand, with current trends indicating a potential irrational bubble in Labubu's pricing [5] - The sustainability of IPs is crucial, and companies need to continuously produce new IPs to meet diverse consumer demands and support stock prices through performance [6]