Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, particularly highlighting the potential recovery of Nike and its impact on the supply chain [17]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.6%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.2 percentage points [3][4]. - Retail sales in the apparel and textile categories showed a total of 1.36 trillion yuan from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3][34]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing price increase in Australian wool, with a significant year-on-year rise of 39.9% [39]. - The operational metrics for Tmall in FY26 Q3 were stable, with inventory levels remaining healthy, although demand recovery is still awaited [10][14]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is recommended for investment, particularly focusing on the Australian wool price cycle and non-woven fabric growth. The supply side is expected to contract, with a forecasted wool production of 244,700 tons for the 25/26 fiscal year, down 12.6% year-on-year [9]. - New Australia Holdings is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the rising wool prices, with significant growth potential anticipated in Q4 2025 [9]. - Non-woven fabric companies like Nobon and Yanjing are also recommended due to their strong market positions and growth prospects in the hygiene product segment [9]. Apparel Sector - The report notes that Tmall's operational indicators for FY26 Q3 were in line with expectations, with retail and wholesale sales experiencing a high single-digit decline year-on-year. However, inventory levels are healthy, and discount rates are stabilizing [10][14]. - Nike is focusing on product innovation and retail capability enhancement, with expectations for recovery in 2026 as inventory issues are addressed [12][16]. - The report suggests positioning in Bosideng for the winter apparel segment, citing favorable conditions due to recent cold weather and an extended sales window leading up to the Spring Festival [13]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the textile and apparel sector's performance is influenced by broader market trends, with a noted decline in exports, particularly in apparel, which fell by 10.9% year-on-year in November [34]. - The report also highlights the competitive landscape, with a focus on the global tariff dynamics that do not alter the core manufacturing competitiveness [9].

Investment Rating - Neutral rating for the textile and apparel industry as of December 21, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 2.2% from December 15 to December 19, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.4 percentage points [1][3] - Nike's revenue for FY26Q2 reached $12.4 billion, marking a 1% year-on-year increase, indicating a positive recovery trend in performance [2][9] - The Australian wool price index has shown significant increases, with a year-on-year rise of 39.9% as of December 18, 2025, suggesting a bullish cycle for wool prices [2][37] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector demonstrated strong performance, with the SW apparel and home textiles index increasing by 2.7%, and the SW textile manufacturing index rising by 1.6% during the same period [1][3] Recent Industry Data - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles in China totaled 1.3597 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [2][27] - In November 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $23.87 billion, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year, with apparel exports specifically down by 10.9% [2][31] Key Company Insights - Nike's performance recovery is expected to positively influence the manufacturing chain, with significant contributions to revenue from its supply chain partners [2][9] - The North American market for Nike has returned to growth, while the Greater China region is undergoing structural adjustments [2][9] Market Trends - The Australian wool production forecast has been revised downwards, with an expected production of 244,700 tons for the 2025/26 season, a decrease of 12.6% from previous estimates [2][9] - The apparel sector is advised to focus on companies like Bosideng, which is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and a favorable sales window due to the delayed Chinese New Year [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xin'ao Co., Ltd. (603889) [7][6][8] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of Australian wool has surged, creating a significant performance elasticity for Xin'ao Co., Ltd. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this price increase due to its proactive inventory strategy during low price periods [7][6][8] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue and profit will see growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by favorable market conditions and strong order backlog [7][6][8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 5,088 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 460 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 19.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.6% [6] - The company reported a total revenue of 3,894 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [7] - The net profit for the same period was 377 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [7] Market and Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the supply of Australian wool is expected to decrease significantly, with a forecasted decline in sheep numbers and wool production, which will likely support higher prices [7][6] - Demand for wool is also anticipated to improve, particularly in the blended yarn market, as downstream brands and garment factories begin to replenish inventory [7][6] - Xin'ao Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the current market dynamics, with a robust production capacity established in Vietnam and Ningxia, China, enhancing its competitive advantage [7][6]