时至春节，正是大快朵颐的时节。在长江三角洲一带的不少地方，都有在冬日大啖羊肉的习惯。白切羊 肉味道佳美，红烧带皮羊肉香气扑鼻，是绝对摆得上桌面的佳肴。而碧绿的青菜加入羊肉，就变得身价 百倍……但俗话说"靠山吃山"，江南一带并没有适宜放羊的广阔草地、牧场，令人垂涎的羊馔又是从何 而来呢？ "天苍苍，野茫茫，风吹草低见牛羊"。这是家喻户晓的北朝民歌《敕勒歌》里的名句。在这里，牛、羊 都是作为典型的北方草原景观出现的。这种情况，也正是《史记·货殖列传》所说的，"居于北地，随畜 牧而转移，其畜所多，则马、牛、羊"。华北地区与塞北毗邻，因地缘之便而较早养羊也是很自然的事 情。汉武帝时期，河南就出现了一位以养羊而致富的"大户"卜式："入山牧十馀年，羊致千馀头，买田 宅。" 草原上的羊群 当然这主要是就绵羊而言。在动物分类学上，绵羊与山羊其实是两个不同的物种，甚至不属于同一个 属。这两者间的距离就跟人类与猩猩一样远。山羊的分布范围，要比绵羊大不少。譬如广州地处岭南， 别称却叫做"羊城"。但总的来说，长江流域及其以南地区的气候温暖湿润，并不是一个适宜羊生存的自 然环境。因此，古代南方养羊的规模是不能与北方相提并论的。在太湖流 ...

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the rising cycle of upstream raw material prices presents clear profit recovery opportunities for leading textile yarn companies due to a contraction in wool supply and a rebound in demand, alongside fluctuating cotton prices supported by inventory consumption ratios [1][2]. Group 1: Upstream Raw Material Market Dynamics - The upstream raw material market for the textile and apparel industry is undergoing a restructuring of supply and demand dynamics, with Australian wool supply entering a contraction phase since 2025, while downstream apparel demand recovery is driving replenishment intentions, leading to an increase in wool prices [2][3]. - Global cotton production and consumption have remained stable, with the 2025/26 production expected to reach 26 million tons, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 0.81%, while consumption is projected to remain steady at 25.89 million tons [4]. Group 2: Wool and Cotton Price Trends - Wool prices have entered a new upward cycle since July 2025, rising from 1208 AUD cents per kilogram to 1665 AUD cents per kilogram by January 29, 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.7% [3]. - The inventory-to-consumption ratio for cotton in 2025/26 is projected to be 62.64%, which is at a lower level compared to the past decade, indicating that strong replenishment intentions and resilient consumption are key drivers supporting domestic cotton prices [4]. Group 3: Impact on Company Profitability - The rising wool price cycle typically corresponds with an increase in profit margins for wool spinning companies, as they adopt a cost-plus pricing model, allowing for higher product prices during periods of rising wool prices [5]. - Cotton constitutes approximately 70% of the raw material costs for yarn companies, and leading companies like Huafu Fashion and Bailong Oriental exhibit a positive correlation between their yarn business profit margins and cotton prices, performing better during periods of rising or high cotton prices [5].

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company: 新澳股份 (Xin'ao Co., Ltd.) - Stock Code: 603889 Key Points - **Market Performance**: The stock price of Xin'ao Co., Ltd. experienced a significant drop today, primarily influenced by the cyclical commodity sector [1] - **Fundamental Outlook**: The company's fundamentals remain strong, with a notable increase in orders due to a substantial rise in wool prices and the timing of the Spring Festival [2] - **Sales Growth**: In January, the company saw a significant increase in both order volume and sales, particularly in wool, with a higher growth rate in orders and sales due to a relatively small base for cashmere [3] - **Wool Price Increase**: As of January 29, the price of Australian wool was reported at 1177 cents per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15.3% and a year-on-year increase of over 50% [4] - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The company anticipates that the clear contraction in supply combined with increasing demand will support the price increase cycle for Australian wool [5] - **Future Price Expectations**: There is optimism regarding the continuation of the upward price trend, contingent on new positive catalysts from both supply and demand sides [6] Additional Insights - **Investment Opportunity**: The current price drop is viewed as a buying opportunity, reinforcing the belief in the positive long-term outlook for the Australian wool market [7]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company: 新澳股份 (New Australia Co., Ltd.) Key Points - **Current Market Situation**: The stock price of New Australia Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant drop, primarily influenced by the cyclical commodity sector [1]. - **Positive Fundamentals**: The company's fundamentals remain strong, benefiting from a substantial increase in wool prices and the timing of the Chinese New Year, leading to a notable surge in orders [1][2]. - **Order and Sales Growth**: In January, the company saw a significant increase in wool orders and sales, with a higher growth rate in orders and sales for cashmere due to a relatively small base [1]. - **Wool Price Increase**: As of January 29, the price of Australian wool reached 1177 cents per kilogram, marking a month-on-month increase of 15.3% and a year-on-year increase of over 50% [1][2]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The company anticipates that the clear contraction in supply combined with increasing demand will support the price increase cycle for Australian wool [2]. - **Future Outlook**: There is optimism regarding the continuation of the upward price trend, contingent on new positive catalysts from both supply and demand sides [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunity**: The company reiterates that the current price drop presents a buying opportunity, emphasizing the potential for recovery and growth in the wool market [1][2].

Group 1: Overview of Uruguay - Uruguay is often recognized for its football heritage but is also known for its rich culture and natural resources, earning it the nickname "Switzerland of South America" due to its stable political environment and developed financial sector [2][3] - The country has a population of approximately 3.5 million, with a significant portion being of European descent, and is a major exporter and consumer of beef, with cattle numbers exceeding 12 million [4] Group 2: Cultural Significance - Uruguay hosted the first FIFA World Cup in 1930 and won the championship, further solidifying its football legacy with multiple titles in international competitions [5] - The national spirit, known as "Garra Charrúa," reflects the resilience and determination of the Uruguayan people, transcending beyond football to embody the national character [6] Group 3: Traditional Practices - Mate tea is a cultural symbol in Uruguay, with the highest per capita consumption globally, representing social sharing and trust among people [7][8] - The national anthem, one of the longest in the world, embodies the spirit of freedom and is often sung with great respect during public events [9][10] Group 4: Economic Relations with China - Uruguay's capital, Montevideo, is geographically distant from Beijing, yet the two countries have developed strong trade relations since establishing diplomatic ties in 1988, with China being Uruguay's largest trading partner [11] - The Uruguayan government is focusing on renewable energy, with over 97% of its electricity generated from renewable sources, and is keen on expanding its solar energy sector, particularly with Chinese investments in electric vehicles and solar panels [11][12] Group 5: Diplomatic Engagement - President Luis Lacalle Pou's visit to China aims to strengthen bilateral relations, emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation as foundational elements for future collaboration [12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - Anta announced on January 26, 2026, the acquisition of 29.06% of Puma SE for a total of €1.506 billion (approximately ¥12.278 billion), becoming its largest shareholder. This transaction is a key step in Anta's globalization strategy, aiming to integrate its operational capabilities with Puma's global platform, which has an annual revenue exceeding €8.8 billion (2024) [2][14] - Adidas achieved a record high revenue of €24.811 billion in 2025, with operating profit of €2.056 billion exceeding market expectations. The operating profit margin increased by 2.6 percentage points to 8.3%, and the gross profit margin rose to 51.6% [2][14] - VF Corporation reported a revenue of $2.82 billion in Q3 of FY2026, a 4% year-on-year increase (2% growth at constant currency), with a 6% growth in the Americas region after excluding the impact of the sold Dickies brand [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Manufacturing: Strong expectations for upstream price increases, with wool prices rising since Q3 2025 and domestic cotton prices also starting to rise. Recommended stocks include Baolong Oriental, New Australia, and Fuchun Dyeing & Weaving, with beneficiaries being Taihua New Materials. For growth-oriented midstream, recommended stocks are Jiansheng Group and Kairun Co [3][15] - Brand: Recent signs of recovery in high-end consumption, with potential inflation in 2026 benefiting the consumer sector. Recommended brands with profit elasticity include Jinhong Group, Ge Li Si, Luolai Life, and Stable Medical [3][15] - Procter & Gamble's industrial chain: Recommended stocks include Jieya Co (benefiting from brand-owned capacity transfer), with beneficiaries being Yanjing Co [3][15] Market Review - The SW textile and apparel sector rose by 0.64%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.08%. The top five gainers in the sector included Harsen Co, Zhongwang Fabric, Hongda High-Tech, Mingxin Xuteng, and Aokang International [16] - The main inflow of funds was into Harsen Co, with a net inflow ratio of 10.10%, while the largest outflow was from Sanfu Outdoor, with a net outflow ratio of 4.59% [16][22] Industry Data Tracking - Wool prices increased by 2.49% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 41.94%. The Australian wool market index reached 1689 AUD cents/kg, equivalent to ¥82,085.40/ton [4][35] - The cotton price index in China rose by 3.84% year-to-date, with the 3128B index at ¥16,183/ton [30][32] - In 2025, textile and apparel exports decreased by 2.26% year-on-year, with total exports amounting to $267.79 billion [52]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - Anta announced on January 26, 2026, the acquisition of 29.06% of Puma SE for a total of €1.506 billion (approximately ¥12.278 billion), becoming its largest shareholder. This transaction is a key step in Anta's globalization strategy, aiming to integrate its operational capabilities with Puma's global platform, which has an annual revenue exceeding €8.8 billion (2024). The deal requires multiple approvals by December 31, 2026, including antitrust and Anta's shareholder meeting [2][14] - Adidas achieved a record high revenue of €24.811 billion in 2025, with an operating profit of €2.056 billion, exceeding market expectations of €2.04 billion. The operating profit margin increased by 2.6 percentage points to 8.3%, and the gross profit margin rose to a high of 51.6% for the year [2][14] - VF Corporation reported a revenue of $2.82 billion in Q3 of fiscal 2026, excluding the impact of the sold Dickies brand, representing a year-on-year growth of 4% (2% growth at constant currency). In the Americas, revenue growth reached 6% after excluding Dickies [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Manufacturing: Strong expectations for upstream price increases, with wool prices rising since Q3 2025 and domestic cotton prices also starting to increase. Recommended stocks include Baolong Oriental, New Australia, and Fuchun Dyeing & Weaving, with beneficiaries being Taihua New Materials. For growth-oriented midstream, recommended stocks are Jian Sheng Group and Kairun Co [3][15] - Brand: Recent signs of recovery in high-end consumption, with potential inflation in 2026 benefiting the consumer sector. Recommended brands with profit elasticity include Jinhong Group, Ge Li Si, Luolai Life, and Stable Medical [3][15] - Procter & Gamble's industrial chain: Recommended stocks include Jieya Co (benefiting from brand-owned capacity transfer), with beneficiaries being Yanjing Co [3][15] Market Review - The SW textile and apparel sector rose by 0.64%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.08% and the ChiNext Index by 0.73%. The top-performing sectors were footwear, home textiles, and textile machinery, while the worst performers were maternal and child products and high-end women's wear. The top five stocks by increase were Harsen Co, Zhongwang Fabric, Hongda High-Tech, Mingxin Xuteng, and Aokang International, while the top five by decrease were Shuhua Sports, Sanfu Outdoor, Langzi Co, Nanshan Zhishang, and Mengjie Co [16] Industry Data Tracking - Wool prices increased by 2.49% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 41.94%. As of January 22, 2026, the Australian wool market's eastern market composite index was 1689 AUD cents/kg, equivalent to ¥82,085.40/ton. This price increase began in July 2025 and has accelerated since then, with the index rising for 12 consecutive weeks [4][35] - The cotton price index in China rose by 3.84% year-to-date, with the 3128B index at ¥16,183/ton as of January 30, 2026 [30][32] - In 2025, textile and apparel exports totaled $267.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26%. December exports were $25.992 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year but up 13.65% month-on-month [52]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 毛价周期再起，纺企盈利弹性如何演绎？— —长江纺服周专题 26W04 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，纺织服装行业部分原材料价格呈现分化走势，其中羽绒及羊毛价格明显回升，而外棉和 涤纶价格仍处低位震荡。我国作为全球主要羊毛消费国，对澳大利亚进口依赖较高，澳毛价格 波动对国内毛纺企业盈利及股价影响显著。通过复盘澳毛价格走势可以发现毛价上涨通常受需 求修复与供给收缩共同驱动，周期多为 4-6 年。在当前供给偏紧、需求边际改善的背景下，毛 价具备稳中向上的基础，并有望通过低价库存消化与顺价能力改善毛纺企业盈利能力，进一步 对相关公司的对股价形成积极催化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 陈信志 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 毛价周期再起，纺企盈利弹性如 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In December 2025, China's textile product exports weakened again, with yarn, fabrics, and products amounting to USD 12.58 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year; clothing and accessories exports were USD 13.41 billion, down 10.2%; and footwear exports were USD 3.91 billion, down 17.4% [2] - The recent stability of the RMB exchange rate has alleviated concerns about rapid appreciation, suggesting a focus on quality OEM companies such as Huali Group, leading auxiliary material supplier Weixing Co., and steadily expanding Kai Run Co. [2] - The report highlights a significant increase in wool auction prices due to strong demand, with the Eastern Market Index (EMI) for Australian wool rising by 107 Australian cents/kg [2] - The report suggests monitoring companies like New Australia Co. and Baolong Oriental, which have high dividend intentions, as well as Taihua New Materials, which may benefit from anti-involution policies in the chemical industry [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Review - The textile and apparel sector underperformed against the CSI 300 index, with the Jiangsu textile index declining by 0.82% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300, resulting in a 0.25 percentage point underperformance [9] Section 2: Major Raw Material Prices and Industry Tracking (1) Major Raw Material Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, cotton prices were at CNY 16,002/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09%; polyester POY was CNY 6,700/ton, up 2.29%; and nylon POY remained stable at CNY 11,600/ton [21][23] (2) Export Data Tracking - In December 2025, China's textile exports were USD 12.58 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year; clothing exports were USD 13.41 billion, down 10.2%; and footwear exports were USD 3.91 billion, down 17.4% [29][31] - Vietnam's textile exports in December 2025 reached USD 3.65 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports were USD 2.20 billion, up 4.3% [35][37] (3) Domestic and Overseas Apparel Consumption Tracking - In November 2025, China's retail sales growth was 1.3%, with apparel and footwear sales growing by 3.5% [39] - In October 2025, U.S. apparel wholesale inventory was USD 28.04 billion, with a stock-to-sales ratio of 2.04 [40]