行 业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2025 年 12 月 28 日 滔搏 FY26Q3 运营稳健，期待 Nike 复苏带动产业链 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20251228 联系人 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 相关研究 《滔搏（06110）点评：三季度基本符合 预期，经营指标健康，需求仍待回暖》 2025/12/23 《 Nike 连续两个财季正增长，澳毛涨价周 期持续强化——纺织服装行业周报 20251221》 2025/12/21 《寒潮催化下看好波司登，Nike 修复看好 运动制造——纺织服装行业周报 20251214》 2025/12/14 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的 ...

Core Viewpoint - India and New Zealand have announced a free trade agreement aimed at deepening bilateral economic ties and promoting economic growth amid increasing global trade uncertainties [1][6]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The free trade agreement, which took 9 months to negotiate, aims to reduce tariff barriers, simplify regulatory processes, and expand cooperation in goods trade, services trade, and investment [1][6]. - Under the agreement, all Indian goods exported to New Zealand will receive zero-tariff access, while New Zealand will gradually enjoy tariff concessions on approximately 70% of India's tariff lines, covering 95% of its exports [1][7]. - New Zealand has committed to investing $20 billion in India over the next 15 years as part of the agreement [7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The bilateral trade volume between India and New Zealand is currently limited, but officials believe the agreement has strong growth potential, with expectations to double the trade volume to $2.4 billion by 2024 [7]. - New Zealand's Prime Minister stated that the agreement is expected to increase New Zealand's annual exports to India by $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion over the next 20 years [7][8]. - Key sectors benefiting from the agreement include India's textiles, apparel, engineering products, leather footwear, and seafood, while New Zealand's horticultural products, timber exports, coal, wool, and lamb will also gain [1][6]. Group 3: Strategic Context - The agreement reflects India's strategy to diversify its export destinations in response to high U.S. import tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][4]. - India is actively pursuing a broader network of free trade agreements to buffer external shocks and support its export growth targets, with ongoing negotiations with the EU, Chile, and Canada [3][8]. - The agreement with New Zealand is part of India's recent push to finalize multiple trade agreements, including those with the UAE, Australia, and the UK [9][10].

经济日报记者 柳文 开放合作才能互惠共赢。目前，约3万名金华籍商人活跃在非洲，非洲有2420家外商投资企业在金 华落户。 来自塞内加尔的苏拉，在义乌生活了20多年，是一家国际贸易公司负责人。不久前，苏拉从义乌引 进新能源汽车，在塞内加尔首都达喀尔销售，还成立了新能源出租车公司，进一步拓展业务。"这次回 国开设新能源出租车公司，整体运行模式、充电桩搭建技术，都是从义乌学习的经验和做法。"苏拉充 满信心，"把电动汽车引进到我们国家，将给更多人带来发展机遇。" "金华的电子商务、数字经济、新能源等业态为非洲国家发展提供了更多机会。"中非民间商会会长 吴严明表示，中非经济互补性强，双方合作能精准对接彼此发展所需，共筑高水平中非命运共同体。 据了解，在经贸领域，由金华出口的小商品、小家电、新能源等产品在非洲市场备受欢迎；非洲国 家盛产的坚果、油籽、羊毛等农产品，也深受国内消费者青睐。不仅如此，金华还通过发展转口贸易、 加工贸易等新业态，不断提升非洲农产品附加值，把非洲的农产品销往全国、全世界。自首届中非经贸 和文化论坛举办以来，金华组织开展100多场配套的对非交流、商务接洽活动，累计促成100多个对非合 作项目签约，有 ...

Group 1: Company Structure and Production - The company employs a vertically integrated production system, allowing for internal collaboration in dyeing and printing, which shortens production cycles and aligns with the fast-response trend in the industry [2] - The production capacity is currently at full load, with ongoing local expansions and efficiency improvements in existing equipment [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Profitability - The company's self-use to external sales ratio for fabric products is approximately 1:1 in terms of value, with a higher volume of external sales [3] - The lower profit margins compared to peers like Shenzhou International are attributed to a smaller production scale, high R&D expenses, and increased demands for complex R&D from key clients [3] - The gross margin fluctuations are influenced by raw material costs (approximately 70% of costs), strong bargaining power of major clients, labor costs in Shanghai, and temporary increases in production costs due to smart equipment layout [4] Group 3: Market Strategy and Customer Base - The current customer base consists of approximately 60% international clients and 40% domestic clients, with plans to enhance market presence through technological innovation and sales channel expansion [3] - The company is open to collaborations with domestic brands for joint promotional activities to increase brand influence [3] Group 4: Raw Material and Cost Management - The company primarily uses wool as a raw material, with specific proportions not disclosed [4] - Wool price increases are expected to have a limited impact on gross margins due to long-term pricing agreements with suppliers, which provide time to adapt to market changes [4] Group 5: Investment and Future Plans - The company has added production capacity in Vietnam in 2025 and plans to maintain a focus on core business while considering future expansions based on cash flow and market conditions [3] - Investment returns from the Masood joint venture have been volatile due to a significant procurement incident in 2024, but improvements in management are expected to stabilize performance [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the wool industry, particularly focusing on leading wool enterprises due to expected price increases and inventory replenishment [1][11]. Core Insights - The wool trend is upward, with a focus on investment opportunities in leading wool companies. After a period of low demand and destocking from 2024 to the first half of 2025, the industry is expected to see a cyclical turning point in the second half of 2025. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, as evidenced by a 42% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities for New Australia Holdings in Q3 2025, and a 12.6% year-on-year decrease in raw material inventory across the industry. This supply-demand dynamic supports a strengthening of wool prices, with the spot price of Australian 19-micron wool rising by 20.44% year-on-year in September 2025 [1][12][13]. - Natural堂 Group has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As China's third-largest domestic cosmetics group, its main brand, Natural堂, remains a leader among domestic brands. The company focuses on mass-market skincare products, with 68.8% of revenue coming from online channels and a broad offline network. In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue grew by 6.4% year-on-year, aligning with the growth rate of the mass-market skincare industry [1][14][24]. Industry Data Tracking - In October, clothing retail sales began to recover, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, attributed to seasonal promotions and improved consumer traffic due to reduced extreme weather conditions. Jewelry retail also continued to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [2][27]. - The cosmetics sector saw a year-on-year retail increase of 9.6% in October, with a significant acceleration in growth compared to September [2][39]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, Hai Lan Home is recommended for its innovative transformation and strong profitability potential. Li Ning is undergoing operational adjustments, with a potential turning point expected in 2025. In the beauty sector, recommendations include Giant Biological, which has shown resilience, and Jinbo Biological, a leader in collagen products expected to launch new products in the second half of the year. In the gold and jewelry sector, the report recommends Laopu Gold due to its strong brand power amid rising gold prices [3][43].

Core Points - The document outlines the implementation details for the import tariff quotas on sugar, wool, and wool tops for the year 2026 [1][2] - It is published by the Ministry of Commerce, indicating a regulatory framework for these commodities [2] Group 1: Import Tariff Quotas - The import tariff quotas for sugar, wool, and wool tops will be effective starting in 2026, impacting trade dynamics in these sectors [1] - Specific quotas and tariff rates are expected to be detailed in the official announcement, influencing pricing and supply chain strategies [2] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The announcement is part of a broader regulatory effort by the Ministry of Commerce to manage imports and protect domestic industries [2] - The implementation of these quotas is likely to affect market conditions and competitive positioning for companies involved in these commodities [1]

Core Insights - Uruguay's total merchandise exports reached $7.668 billion by July this year, marking a 5.4% year-on-year increase, with projections for 2024 estimating exports to rise to $12.845 billion, a 13% growth [1] - The Uruguayan government emphasizes the importance of internationalization for sustainable and inclusive growth, with one-fifth of the country's jobs linked to exports [1] Group 1: Traditional Exports - Uruguay continues to strengthen its traditional exports, particularly in meat, with meat exports in the first half of the year amounting to approximately $1.5 billion, a nearly 20% increase [2] - Beef remains the primary export product, with export value reaching $1.2155 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting a 22.5% year-on-year growth [2] - The government collaborates with the National Meat Institute to promote the "Uruguayan Meat" brand, launching a multilingual website and tailored marketing strategies for different markets [2] Group 2: Emerging Markets - Uruguay is actively exploring new export markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, with exports to Gulf Cooperation Council countries increasing from $8 million in 2001 to $61 million in 2024 [3] - The country has gained access to the Saudi Arabian market for dairy products, with more Uruguayan products, including beef, entering the Middle Eastern market [3] - Recent U.S. tariff policies have prompted Southeast Asian countries to seek new trade partners, presenting opportunities for Uruguay in the Asian market [3] Group 3: Trade with China - China remains Uruguay's largest export market, with exports to China reaching $345 million in July, accounting for 30% of the country's total exports for that month [4] - In 2024, China is projected to become the largest buyer of Uruguayan wool, representing 43% of its wool exports [4] - The Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture, and Fisheries recently visited China, resulting in multiple agreements aimed at expanding the range of Uruguayan products exported to China [4]

Group 1 - The announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation aims to address disorderly price competition and maintain a healthy market price order, emphasizing the importance of fair and legal market competition [1] - The announcement highlights that disorderly competition negatively impacts industry development, product innovation, and quality safety, which is detrimental to the healthy development of the national economy [1] - Businesses are encouraged to set prices based on production costs and market supply and demand, adhering to principles of fairness, legality, and good faith [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration have jointly announced new technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles, effective from January 1, 2026 [2] - The announcement specifies that only models listed in the "Directory of New Energy Vehicles Eligible for Tax Exemption" that meet the new technical requirements will qualify for the tax exemption [2] Group 3 - The State Council has issued the "Electronic Seal Management Measures," which standardize the management and application of electronic seals across various organizations [3] - The measures state that electronic seals, based on cryptographic technology, hold the same legal effect as physical seals when used for electronic document signatures [3] Group 4 - Starting from October 9, the Beijing Stock Exchange has implemented a significant reform by switching all 277 stocks to a new code beginning with "920," which does not affect trading rules or methods [4] - This change aims to unify the stock coding system and enhance the trading experience for investors [4] Group 5 - The Ministry of Commerce has announced the implementation details for the import tariff quotas for sugar, wool, and wool tops for 2026, with a total sugar import quota of 1.945 million tons, 70% of which is for state-owned trade [5] - The import quotas for wool and wool tops are set at 287,000 tons and 80,000 tons, respectively [5] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission has released the application and arrangement details for the import tariff quotas for grain and cotton for 2026, with specific quotas for wheat, corn, rice, and cotton [6] - The total import quota for wheat is set at 9.636 million tons, with 90% allocated for state-owned trade, while corn and rice quotas are 7.2 million tons and 5.32 million tons, respectively [6] Group 7 - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have announced export control measures for certain materials, including superhard materials and rare earths, effective from November 8 [7] - These measures are intended to protect national security and interests while ensuring compliance with international obligations [7] Group 8 - The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration has issued a notice to enhance post-harvest services and procurement for autumn grain, focusing on quality monitoring and market coordination [9] - The notice emphasizes the importance of providing drying and storage services to farmers and ensuring effective grain quality safety measures [10]

Group 1 - China, as the world's largest iron ore importer, has previously overpaid due to the influence of international miners setting the Platts price [1] - In 2024, the landed price of Australian ore is expected to be several dozen dollars per ton higher than West African ore, with dollar settlements exposing steel companies to unnecessary exchange rate risks [1] - Hebei Steel Group's iron ore payments in RMB exceeded 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%, highlighting the advantages of RMB settlements [1] Group 2 - China and Australia have completed the integration of the RMB settlement system for wool and barley trade, with the first batch of 20,000 tons of barley shipped using RMB payments [3] - The internationalization of the RMB is steadily advancing, and more trade is expected to adopt RMB settlements in the future [3] Group 3 - Confidence in achieving goals is emphasized, with expectations that more countries and international enterprises will join the use of RMB settlements [6] - The internationalization of the RMB will continue to progress, enhancing its importance on the global stage and establishing it as a significant currency for global trade settlements [6]

Core Insights - China's trade with Arab League countries has shown significant growth, maintaining its position as the largest trading partner for several consecutive years [1] - In the first seven months of this year, the trade volume between China and the Arab League reached 1.72 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - In July alone, China's imports and exports with the Arab League amounted to 245.31 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.9% [1] Trade Dynamics - China's imports of crude oil from the Arab League accounted for over 40% of its total imports of similar products, with increases in imports of natural gas, refined oil, and metal ores [1] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products to the Arab League reached 557.66 billion yuan, a 22% increase, constituting nearly 60% of total exports to the region [1] - Specific growth rates for exports include machine tools (50.1%), ships (49.7%), and construction machinery (42.1%) [1] Agricultural Cooperation - China is deepening its agricultural cooperation with the Arab League, supporting modern agricultural development and increasing imports of distinctive agricultural products [1] - Exports of agricultural machinery and crop seeds from China to the Arab League grew by 10.5% and 10.4%, respectively [1] - Notable increases in imports include Omani seafood, which reached a historical high, and significant growth in imports of frozen strawberries from Egypt (54.7%), chocolate from Lebanon (38.2%), and wool from Algeria (12.8%) [1]