Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly. The short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is oscillatory and bullish. It is anticipated that the domestic crude oil futures on Thursday will maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term, medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and bullish. The reference view is a bullish run, with the core logic being the intensification of geopolitical risks [1]. 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Energy and Chemicals Sector of Commodity Futures - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a bullish run. The core logic includes positive signals from the China - US leaders' phone call, the potential cooling of the China - US tariff war, the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, concerns about the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, as well as the OPEC+ countries' lower - than - expected production increase in April - May. International crude oil futures prices rose by over 5% on Wednesday night, and the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract closed up 3.37% to 497.4 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly rising. With the full opening of rubber tapping in Southeast Asia and domestic natural rubber producing areas, and the improvement of macro - expectations, it is expected to maintain a stable shock trend [4]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly rising. Driven by the improvement of the macro - atmosphere and the short - term stabilization of coal futures prices, it is expected to maintain a slightly stronger shock trend [4]. - **Crude Oil**: The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract on Tuesday showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly rising. Due to the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine war and the improvement of Sino - US relations, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices will maintain a slightly stronger shock trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers in May 2025 decreased, and the industry's prosperity improved. The logistics and warehousing indexes in May 2025 slightly declined, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks in May decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.33%, with weekly and annual increases. The weekly output increased year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, etc., changed to different degrees. The port and inland inventories increased [10][11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of May 30, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US decreased, and the daily output increased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing and strategic reserve inventories increased. The net long positions in the WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets changed differently [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 13,805 yuan/ton | +80 yuan/ton | +45 yuan/ton | +120 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,400 yuan/ton | +33 yuan/ton | 2,276 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | +124 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 459.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 479.8 yuan/barrel | +5.5 yuan/barrel | - 20.6 yuan/barrel | - 5.6 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists relevant charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, rubber futures inventory, methanol basis, methanol port inventory, crude oil basis, and crude oil commercial inventory, etc., but does not provide specific analysis content in the text [17][19][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. The methanol futures contract 2509 may show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Crude oil futures prices at home and abroad are likely to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.80% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 86,900 tons, a decrease of 3.99%, and the general trade inventory was 522,800 tons, a decrease of 0.25%. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.6%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The China Warehousing Index was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, about 83,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight decrease of 5% from April and an increase of about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 435,500, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [8][9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.33%, a slight increase of 0.38% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.81% month - on - month, and a significant increase of 10.55% from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9859 million tons, a slight increase of 19,200 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 71,900 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 290,900 tons from the same period last year. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.40%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.03%, a slight decrease of 3.82% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was 87.82%, a slight increase of 3.90% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was 45.09%, a significant increase of 5.30% week - on - week. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.97%, a slight increase of 1.06 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 4.24 percentage points month - on - month. As of June 6, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 133 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 118 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant decrease of 205 yuan/ton month - on - month. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 458,400 tons, a significant increase of 64,000 tons week - on - week, a slight increase of 43,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 1,800 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of June 5, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 370,600 tons, a slight increase of 15,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 66,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 22,500 tons from the same period last year [10][11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 461, a slight decrease of 4 rigs week - on - week and a decrease of 35 rigs from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.408 million barrels, a slight increase of 7,000 barrels per day week - on - week and an increase of 308,000 barrels per day year - on - year. - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 436 million barrels, a significant decrease of 4.304 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19.863 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.086 million barrels, a slight increase of 576,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 401.8 million barrels, a slight increase of 509,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.4%, a slight increase of 3.2 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 2.00 percentage points year - on - year. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and fluctuating trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 3, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 167,957 contracts, a slight increase of 2,263 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 10,254 contracts or 5.75% from the May average. As of June 3, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 155,519 contracts, a significant increase of 7,688 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 19,984 contracts or 14.74% from the May average [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,750 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 13,725 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | -75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | 2,277 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +63 yuan/ton | -13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 474.3 yuan/barrel | +8.2 yuan/barrel | -23.6 yuan/barrel | -8.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [17][30][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The core view is that the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory and intraday showing a tendency of weak oscillation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - Cycle Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, with an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. It is speculated that the remaining voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day may be completely cancelled by the end of October. After the geopolitical factors are digested, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices have begun to give back premiums [5]. - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weakly oscillatory trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.07% to 462.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the oil price on Thursday may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [5]. 3.3 Fluctuation Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the closing price of the day's daytime session. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillatory, an increase of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillatory, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise. The terms "strongly/weakly oscillatory" only apply to intraday views [2][3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly. In the short - term (within a week), mid - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday, the crude oil 2507 contract shows an oscillating trend, with an intraday weak - oscillating tendency. The overall view is a weak operation due to increased supply expectations [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is a weak operation, and the core logic is that the expected increase in supply leads to the weak - oscillating trend of crude oil [1] 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Major Varieties - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is weakly oscillating, and the mid - term view is oscillating, with a reference view of weak operation. As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production increases, with a general market expectation of an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, combined with the previous increase in daily production targets in April, May, and June by about 1 million barrels, the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts may be completely cancelled by the end of October. Under increasing supply pressure, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weak downward trend on Thursday night, with the futures price dropping 1.97% to 452.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price on Friday may maintain a weakly oscillating trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2507 contract are mainly volatile, with an intraday weak - volatile trend, and the overall reference view is a weak operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.84% to 457.4 yuan/barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the market generally expects an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, it may completely cancel the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by the end of October, increasing supply pressure [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the approaching of June, the rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia and China are fully opening for tapping. Given the expected increase in supply, the contract is likely to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the expected increase in external imports and the growing pressure of social inventory accumulation in the future, and the weak supply - demand structure, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [4]. - **Crude Oil**: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening and falling, and significantly closing lower on Thursday. After digesting the bullish factors, the weak supply - demand structure dominates the market again. With the continuous production expansion of OPEC + oil - producing countries, the expected supply surplus increases, and the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 59.88%, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.08% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 71.21%, a significant week - on - week increase of 12.81 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 5.29 percentage points [8]. - In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat [8]. - In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. For the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles in China exceeded 10 million in the first four months [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants nears completion, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output are rising again. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.46%, a small month - on - month increase of 3.46%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.48%. The average weekly output of methanol in China was 1.9911 million tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 66,700 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 40,500 tons, and a significant increase of 388,700 tons compared with 1.6024 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.02%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was 94.67%, a small week - on - week increase of 2.09%. The MTBE operating rate was 41.11%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 5.30%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.64%, a small week - on - week increase of 0.91 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 390,100 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 20,900 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 218,000 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 20,600 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 172,100 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,400 tons. As of the week of May 22, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 336,100 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 200 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 53,300 tons compared with 389,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 473, a small week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 24 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.392 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 5,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 292,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.158 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.687 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.435 million barrels, a small week - on - week decrease of 457,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 400.493 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 843,000 barrels. The operating rate of US refineries was 90.7%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points, a small month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points, and a small year - on - year decrease of 1.00 percentage point [13]. - Since May 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weakly fluctuating trend. As of May 13, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 185,301 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 9,873 contracts and a significant increase of 24,938 contracts or 15.55% compared with the average in April. As of May 13, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 145,373 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 49,217 contracts and a significant decrease of 8,932 contracts or 5.79% compared with the average in April [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | 40 yuan/ton | + 40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,365 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,241 yuan/ton | 124 yuan/ton | + 124 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 453.9 yuan/barrel | 9.2 yuan/barrel | + 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][20][25] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, domestic methanol port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][36] - **Crude Oil**: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower on Wednesday. As the previous positive factors were gradually digested, the rubber market entered a weakly divergent stage. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. With the expected increase in external imports and the increasing pressure on social inventory accumulation in the future, and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating and rebounding, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. Due to the information from the US intelligence department indicating that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, under the background of strengthened geopolitical risks, it is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures may maintain a stable fluctuating trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decline of 1.25%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 59.88%, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.08% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 71.21%, a significant week - on - week increase of 12.81 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 5.29 percentage points [8]. - In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and an increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the same period of the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%. Notably, for the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles in China both exceeded 10 million in the first four months [9]. Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants came to an end, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.46%, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.46%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.48%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.9911 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 66,700 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 40,500 tons, and a significant increase of 388,700 tons compared with 1.6024 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.02%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.03%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.52%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 94.67%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.09%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 41.11%, a week - on - week significant decline of 5.30%. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.64%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decline of 0.7% [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 390,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 25,000 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 60,100 tons, and a slight decrease of 20,900 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. The methanol inventory in East China ports reached 218,000 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 20,600 tons, and the methanol inventory in South China ports reached 172,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,400 tons. As of the week of May 15, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 335,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 32,000 tons, an increase of 10.53%, a month - on - month slight increase of 23,500 tons, and a slight decrease of 44,100 tons compared with 380,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 474, a week - on - week slight decrease of 5 and a decrease of 22 compared with the same period of the previous year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.387 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 287,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.454 million barrels and a significant decrease of 15.189 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma reached 23.892 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 1.069 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 399.65 million barrels, a month - on - month significant increase of 2.641 million barrels. The operating rate of US refineries was maintained at 90.2%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.2 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.9 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.20 percentage points [13]. - Since May 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weakly fluctuating trend, with the long - making forces in the market increasing and decreasing alternately. As of May 13, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were maintained at 185,301 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 9,873 contracts, and a significant increase of 24,938 contracts compared with the April average of 160,363 contracts, an increase of 15.55%. At the same time, as of May 13, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 145,373 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 49,217 contracts, and a significant decrease of 8,932 contracts compared with the April average of 154,305 contracts, a decrease of 5.79%. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also increased significantly week - on - week [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 14,820 yuan/ton | - 120 yuan/ton | + 120 yuan/ton | + 80 yuan | | Methanol | 2,362 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | 2,270 yuan/ton | + 14 yuan/ton | - 14 yuan/ton | + 92 yuan | | Crude Oil | 455.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 470.1 yuan/barrel | + 4.7 yuan/barrel | - 4.7 yuan/barrel | - 14.5 yuan | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [42][44][46]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with bullish factors prevailing and showing a slightly stronger - than - expected trend. The contract may maintain a slightly stronger - than - expected trend in Friday night trading [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating and slightly weak", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly strong", and the reference view is "running strongly" [1] Driving Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus. In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent, but the negative impact on the futures price may be limited [5] Price Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a slightly stronger - than - expected trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.64% to 459.6 yuan per barrel [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the crude oil market is in a situation where bearish factors prevail, and the crude oil is expected to run weakly with a volatile and downward trend. The main reasons are the increasing supply and the relatively weak demand in the short - term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract ended its rebound on Wednesday night, with the price dropping significantly by 2.16% to 448.4 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Thursday night [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2507 are all "volatile and weak", and the overall view is "weakly running" [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and the output of US shale oil is also growing steadily, which intensifies the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand: In May, the crude oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate maintains a stable and volatile trend, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5].