时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-12 品种晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险加剧，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日中美两国领导人通电话，释放积极信号，中方邀请美方访华，中美关税战存在降温 预期。同时中美双方在伦敦达成进一步关税共识。在乐观情绪回升的背景下，宏观因子逐渐转强。 同时俄罗斯对乌克兰全境 ...

专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 10 日 橡胶甲醇原油 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 乐观氛围主导 能化偏强运行 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡企稳， 小幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 13805 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收涨 1.21%至 13805 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大至 885 元/吨。临近 6 月，东南亚和国内天胶产区迎来全面开割，此前泰国推 迟割胶也将进入产胶期，叠加中泰磋商天胶进口零关税。随着中美两 国首脑互通电话，宏观预期暂时好转。在偏多氛围背景下，预计后市 国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡企稳的走势。 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2296 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2260 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0.26%至 2276 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 62 元/吨。随着宏观氛围暂时好转，叠加短期煤炭期货价格震 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 6 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素占优 能化震荡企稳 核心观点 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 13725 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.22%至 13725 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 870 元/吨。临近 6 月，东南亚和国内天胶产区迎来全面开割，此前泰国推 迟割胶也将进入产胶期，叠加中泰磋商天胶进口零关税。随着中美两 国首脑互通电话，宏观预期暂时好转。在偏多氛围背景下，预计后市 国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡企稳的走势。 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2283 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2254 元 ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应预期增大，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着 6 月美债危机逐渐迫近，"灰犀牛"效应凸显或诱发宏观新一轮负面冲击。同时 OPEC+ 产油国加快增产节奏，市场普遍预期将宣布 7 月再增产 41.1 万桶/日。按照目前每个月递增 41.1 万 ...

上期所原油期货2507合约夜盘收跌1.21%，报456.90元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收跌0.71%，沪银收跌 0.52%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the approaching of June, the rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia and China are fully opening for tapping. Given the expected increase in supply, the contract is likely to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Thursday. With the expected increase in external imports and the growing pressure of social inventory accumulation in the future, and the weak supply - demand structure, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [4]. - **Crude Oil**: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2507 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening and falling, and significantly closing lower on Thursday. After digesting the bullish factors, the weak supply - demand structure dominates the market again. With the continuous production expansion of OPEC + oil - producing countries, the expected supply surplus increases, and the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 59.88%, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.08% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 3.02 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 71.21%, a significant week - on - week increase of 12.81 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decrease of 5.29 percentage points [8]. - In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat [8]. - In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. For the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles in China exceeded 10 million in the first four months [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants nears completion, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output are rising again. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.46%, a small month - on - month increase of 3.46%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.48%. The average weekly output of methanol in China was 1.9911 million tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 66,700 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 40,500 tons, and a significant increase of 388,700 tons compared with 1.6024 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.02%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 9.17%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was 94.67%, a small week - on - week increase of 2.09%. The MTBE operating rate was 41.11%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 5.30%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.64%, a small week - on - week increase of 0.91 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 390,100 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 20,900 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 218,000 tons, a small week - on - week decrease of 20,600 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 172,100 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 4,400 tons. As of the week of May 22, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 336,100 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 200 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons, and a small year - on - year decrease of 53,300 tons compared with 389,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 473, a small week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 24 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.392 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 5,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 292,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.158 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.687 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.435 million barrels, a small week - on - week decrease of 457,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 400.493 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 843,000 barrels. The operating rate of US refineries was 90.7%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points, a small month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points, and a small year - on - year decrease of 1.00 percentage point [13]. - Since May 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weakly fluctuating trend. As of May 13, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 185,301 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 9,873 contracts and a significant increase of 24,938 contracts or 15.55% compared with the average in April. As of May 13, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 145,373 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 49,217 contracts and a significant decrease of 8,932 contracts or 5.79% compared with the average in April [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | 40 yuan/ton | + 40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,365 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,241 yuan/ton | 124 yuan/ton | + 124 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 453.9 yuan/barrel | 9.2 yuan/barrel | + 9.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][20][25] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, domestic methanol port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][36] - **Crude Oil**: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 5 月 21 日 橡胶甲醇原油 强弱分化 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 14820 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.90%至 14820 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 815 元/吨。随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，胶市转入偏弱分歧阶段，预计后 市国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2284 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2250 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0.22%至 2270 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度缩小 至 73 元/吨。在外部进口预期回升，未来社库累库压力增加。在甲醇 供需结构偏弱的背景下，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2509 合约或维持震荡 偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 原 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素占优，原油震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+产油国 6 月进一步加快增产节奏，同时美国页岩油产量也稳步增长，这令油市供 应过剩预期加重。而处在 5 月份，北半球原油需求仍维持淡季模式，6 月消费力量才逐渐增强，炼厂 开工率维 ...