Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The global oil market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories increasing, and global refinery profits declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and sanctions on supply from Iran and Russia [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - International oil prices fell on Thursday as concerns about the US economic outlook outweighed the benefits of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday and signaled further cuts this year, but the latest US data showed a slowdown in the economy and an unexpected increase in distillate inventories, which dampened demand expectations. Ecopetrol will complete its 2025 drilling target ahead of schedule and may exceed its production target. The EU is planning to accelerate the phase - out of Russian liquefied natural gas, and analysts expect the global natural gas market to turn into a supply surplus in the second half of next year [5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.013 million barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a 1.69% increase from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.504 million barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%, and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.579 million barrels per day to 5.692 million barrels per day. From September 5 - 11, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic production and inventory of gasoline and diesel both increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [6]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices closed higher, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news. The US proposed extensive sanctions on Russian energy on Friday. Fundamentally, the global oil market is accumulating inventory, and refinery profits are declining. In the baseline scenario, the crude oil balance sheet will be in surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of US sanctions on Russia and its potential to disrupt Russian supply [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil absolute prices are expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. Medium - term absolute prices are expected to weaken, with prices dropping to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the fourth - quarter European diesel crack price expectations are raised [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - From August 21 to August 27, 2025, WTI crude oil increased by $0.90, BRENT by $0.83, and DUBAI by $0.03. Other indicators such as BRENT 1 - 2 month spread, WTI - BRENT, etc., also showed corresponding changes [3]. - During the same period, SC decreased by 16.40, OMAN increased by 1.00, and SC - BRT decreased by 3.06. Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 30.00, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 75.00 [3]. - For other products like Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, etc., there were also significant price and spread changes during this period [3]. 3.2 Daily News - The White House trade advisor Navarro said that if India stops buying Russian oil, it can get a 25% tariff discount [3]. - The Mexican DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3]. - European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, and there is room for further diplomatic negotiations in the next few weeks [3]. - Affected by the Ukrainian attack and US tariff policies, Russian crude oil exports fell to a four - week low. In the week ending August 24, Russian port weekly crude oil shipments decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day [4]. - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 due to an expanding oil surplus next year [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5]. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 15 to 22, the main refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased slightly. Chinese refinery weekly production of gasoline and diesel both decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased. The comprehensive profit of main refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices oscillated narrowly, and the absolute price rebounded slightly on Friday. At the end of the summer peak oil demand season, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The South American supply has been realized, and the market is concerned about the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of US "punishment" measures on India's purchase of Russian oil [6]. - India said on August 21 that it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the embargo risk, but there is still uncertainty in trade frictions. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran on Thursday, which had a greater potential impact, and then the Dubai market month - spread strengthened [6]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, and the macro - sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, the global oil inventory has slightly decreased, the US commercial inventory has decreased, gasoline inventory has decreased, and diesel inventory has increased. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the gasoline and diesel cracks have strengthened [6]. - Currently, refineries are at the peak of operation. The latest estimate is that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil month - spread is expected to be under pressure [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]