消息面上，据路透社消息，两名知情人士透露，欧佩克+有8个成员国将在周日的会议上讨论进一步提高石油产量，此举旨在帮助该集团重新夺回市场份 额。 若此次进一步增产计划落地，意味着欧佩克+的原油产量约占全球总量的一半，将开始取消第二阶段日均约165万桶的减产措施（这一减产量约占全球原 油需求的 1.6%），且比原计划提前一年多。 此前，欧佩克+已达成协议：4月至9月期间将产量目标上调日均约220万桶，此外还为阿联酋（UAE）额外增加了日均30万桶的产量配额。然而，该集团 的实际增产量并未达到承诺水平。部分原因在于，一些成员国需弥补此前超产带来的配额缺口，而另一些成员国则因产能限制，难以实现产量提升。 此前，欧佩克在8月12日发布的月度石油市场报告中上调了对2026年全球石油需求增长的预测，同时维持2025年预测不变。 国际油价盘中跳水。 9月3日，国际油价盘中跳水。截至发稿，布油跌近2%，盘中一度跌超2%。 美油跌幅则超2%，盘中最高跌近2.4%。 报告说，2026年全球日均石油需求将比2025年增加约138万桶，达1.065亿桶；2025年，全球日均石油需求将比去年增加129万桶，达1.051亿桶。 欧佩克7月曾 ...

若此次进一步增产计划落地，意味着欧佩克+的原油产量约占全球总量的一半，将开始取消第二阶段日均约165万桶的减产措施（这一减产量约占全球原 油需求的 1.6%），且比原计划提前一年多。 此前，欧佩克+已达成协议：4月至9月期间将产量目标上调日均约220万桶，此外还为阿联酋（UAE）额外增加了日均30万桶的产量配额。然而，该集团 的实际增产量并未达到承诺水平。部分原因在于，一些成员国需弥补此前超产带来的配额缺口，而另一些成员国则因产能限制，难以实现产量提升。 此前，欧佩克在8月12日发布的月度石油市场报告中上调了对2026年全球石油需求增长的预测，同时维持2025年预测不变。 国际油价盘中跳水。 9月3日，国际油价盘中跳水。截至发稿，布油跌近2%，盘中一度跌超2%。 美油跌幅则超2%，盘中最高跌近2.4%。 消息面上，据路透社消息，两名知情人士透露，欧佩克+有8个成员国将在周日的会议上讨论进一步提高石油产量，此举旨在帮助该集团重新夺回市场份 额。 报告说，2026年全球日均石油需求将比2025年增加约138万桶，达1.065亿桶；2025年，全球日均石油需求将比去年增加129万桶，达1.051亿桶。 欧佩克7月曾 ...

国际油价盘中跳水。 9月3日，国际油价盘中跳水。截至发稿，布油跌近2%，盘中一度跌超2%。 美油跌幅则超2%，盘中最高跌近2.4%。 消息面上，据路透社消息，两名知情人士透露，欧佩克+有8个成员国将在周日的会议上讨论进一步提高石油产量，此举旨在帮助该集团重新夺回市场份 额。 若此次进一步增产计划落地，意味着欧佩克+的原油产量约占全球总量的一半，将开始取消第二阶段日均约165万桶的减产措施(这一减产量约占全球原油 需求的1.6%)，且比原计划提前一年多。 此前，欧佩克+已达成协议：4月至9月期间将产量目标上调日均约220万桶，此外还为阿联酋(UAE)额外增加了日均30万桶的产量配额。然而，该集团的实 际增产量并未达到承诺水平。部分原因在于，一些成员国需弥补此前超产带来的配额缺口，而另一些成员国则因产能限制，难以实现产量提升。 此前，欧佩克在8月12日发布的月度石油市场报告中上调了对2026年全球石油需求增长的预测，同时维持2025年预测不变。 报告说，2026年全球日均石油需求将比2025年增加约138万桶，达1.065亿桶；2025年，全球日均石油需求将比去年增加129万桶，达1.051亿桶。 欧佩克7月曾预 ...

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil absolute prices are expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. Medium - term absolute prices are expected to weaken, with prices dropping to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the fourth - quarter European diesel crack price expectations are raised [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - From August 21 to August 27, 2025, WTI crude oil increased by $0.90, BRENT by $0.83, and DUBAI by $0.03. Other indicators such as BRENT 1 - 2 month spread, WTI - BRENT, etc., also showed corresponding changes [3]. - During the same period, SC decreased by 16.40, OMAN increased by 1.00, and SC - BRT decreased by 3.06. Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 30.00, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 75.00 [3]. - For other products like Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, etc., there were also significant price and spread changes during this period [3]. 3.2 Daily News - The White House trade advisor Navarro said that if India stops buying Russian oil, it can get a 25% tariff discount [3]. - The Mexican DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3]. - European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, and there is room for further diplomatic negotiations in the next few weeks [3]. - Affected by the Ukrainian attack and US tariff policies, Russian crude oil exports fell to a four - week low. In the week ending August 24, Russian port weekly crude oil shipments decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day [4]. - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 due to an expanding oil surplus next year [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5]. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 15 to 22, the main refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased slightly. Chinese refinery weekly production of gasoline and diesel both decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased. The comprehensive profit of main refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices oscillated narrowly, and the absolute price rebounded slightly on Friday. At the end of the summer peak oil demand season, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The South American supply has been realized, and the market is concerned about the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of US "punishment" measures on India's purchase of Russian oil [6]. - India said on August 21 that it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the embargo risk, but there is still uncertainty in trade frictions. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran on Thursday, which had a greater potential impact, and then the Dubai market month - spread strengthened [6]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, and the macro - sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, the global oil inventory has slightly decreased, the US commercial inventory has decreased, gasoline inventory has decreased, and diesel inventory has increased. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the gasoline and diesel cracks have strengthened [6]. - Currently, refineries are at the peak of operation. The latest estimate is that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil month - spread is expected to be under pressure [6].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that Brent crude oil futures prices are expected to fall below $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing supply-demand imbalances in the global oil market [1] - The report forecasts an average surplus supply of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period [1] - OECD member countries are projected to account for one-third of the global inventory increase, with an estimated rise of about 270 million barrels [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the dual pressure of inventory buildup and declining oil demand in OECD countries will push the fair value of Brent crude oil down from the current level of approximately $75 [1] - Although oil prices may fluctuate around forward contract prices for the remainder of 2025, significant inventory pressure is expected to exacerbate in 2026, leading to a drop below current market expectations [1] - If China's crude oil inventory growth accelerates from an average of 400,000 barrels per day in the first eight months of this year to 800,000 barrels per day, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 could rise by $6 to $62 compared to the baseline forecast [1] Group 3 - As of the report's release, international oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend, with Brent crude futures at $67 per barrel and WTI at $63 per barrel, both significantly lower than their peaks earlier in the year [2] - Market analysis suggests that slowing global economic growth is leading to weak demand, compounded by increased production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, heightening concerns over oversupply in the market [2]

然而，报告称，如果中国库存增长从今年迄今的每日40万桶加速至每日80万桶，那么与该行的基线情景 相比，2026年的布伦特原油平均价格将上涨6美元，达到62美元。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 高盛集团预计，由于明年石油过剩加剧，布伦特原油期货合约价格到2026年底将降至每桶50美元区间的 低位。 这家美国投资银行在周二给客户的一份报告中说，"我们预计，从2025年第四季度到2026年第四季度， 石油过剩将扩大，平均每日达到180万桶，导致到2026年底全球库存增加近8亿桶。" 该行估计，到2026年，储存在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国的石油将占全球总库存的三分之 一，即2.7亿桶。报告称，这加上经合组织国家需求的减少，将使布伦特原油的公允价值从目前70多美 元的中间水平降低。 高盛表示，布伦特原油价格在2025年剩余时间里可能将保持在接近远期合约的水平，但随着经合组织库 存加速增长，明年将跌破这些远期合约的价格。 周三，布伦特原油期货徘徊在每桶67美元附近，WTI原油期货价格徘徊在63美元附近。目前市场正关注 乌克兰冲突的最新动态，并权衡美国对世界第三大原油消费国印度征收高 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to widen, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [1] - This surplus is projected to lead to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [1] - Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to drop to just above $50 by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Rosneft stated that despite OPEC+ increasing oil production, there will not be an oil surplus in the long term [1] Group 1 - Rosneft's CEO emphasizes confidence in the oil market stability despite production increases by OPEC+ [1] - The statement suggests a belief in sustained demand for oil, countering concerns about oversupply [1]