买家恢复俄油采购，油价持续下跌 市场要闻与重要数据 1、截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.55美元，收于每桶55.27美元，跌幅 为2.73%；2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.64美元，收于每桶58.92美元，跌幅为2.71%。 2、 俄罗斯原油价格跌至俄乌冲突开始以来的最低水平，原因是西方的制裁加大了该国石油行业需要提供的折扣， 同时基准原油期货暴跌。Argus Media数据显示，俄罗斯石油出口商从波罗的海、黑海和东部港口科兹米诺港运出 的原油平均售价略高于每桶40美元。这比过去三个月下降了28%，近期针对石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公 司的制裁措施进一步加大了折扣力度。西方国家对俄罗斯石油贸易施加的压力越来越大，使得俄罗斯石油的销售 和运输变得日益困难，相关措施也针对印度等主要买家的炼油厂。此外，全球基准原油价格也在下跌，布伦特原 油周二跌破每桶60美元，为5月份以来首次。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 特朗普在社媒发文表示，他下令"全面彻底封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮"，包围委内瑞拉的舰队只会越 来越大，给他们带来的冲击将是前所未有的——直到他 ...

国际油价走低，港股石油股集体下跌，其中，中国海洋石油、中国石油化工、中国石油股份均跌超 2%，中海油田服务、上海石油化工、昆仑能源皆跌超1%。 消息上，昨日WTI 1月原油期货收跌0.62美 元，跌幅1.08%，报56.82美元/桶；布伦特2月原油期货收跌0.56美元，跌幅0.92%，报60.56美元/桶。 石 油价格徘徊在2021年以来的最低水平附近，交易员们正在权衡乌克兰可能停火的前景，停火可能为减少 对俄油的出口限制铺平道路，使本已供过于求的市场面临更大压力。由于欧佩克+恢复闲置产能以及其 他产油国增加产量，全球石油过剩的预期不断膨胀，石油正走向年度收跌。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 へ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 7.950 | -2.33% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 4.320 | -2.26% | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 20.220 | -2.22% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 6.800 | -1.88% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.300 | - ...

智通财经APP注意到，油价经历了自疫情以来表现最差的一年，而华尔街认为跌势尚未结束。 根据美国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团、摩根大通和摩根士丹利的预测平均值，目前交易价格在每桶62美 元左右的布伦特原油期货，将在2026年进一步下滑至约59美元。今年，这一国际基准价格已下跌了 17%。 石油过剩问题愈演愈烈 在高盛、花旗、摩根大通、摩根士丹利和美国银行这五大行中，高盛集团持有最悲观的预测，其年度均 价为每桶56美元，而花旗集团则最为乐观，预测均价为62美元。这与两家银行过去经常采取的立场有所 不同。 高盛认为，在新冠疫情期间被推迟的石油项目将投入运营，为市场带来新的供应。花旗集团则认为，中 国持续的库存囤积将阻止过剩供应对油价造成更大的冲击。 而美国银行则假设欧佩克+在第一季度的计划性暂停后，将恢复增产。 这五家银行的平均预测显示，由于全球产量超过需求增长，全球石油市场明年将面临约220万桶/日的过 剩。 这些银行预测的过剩量低于主要经济体顾问机构国际能源署(IEA)的估计。IEA预计将出现创纪录的400 万桶/日的巨大过剩，不过IEA也认为石油生产国的调整可能会抑制过剩的规模。 摩根大通预计，石油过剩将小于账面 ...

就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前自身矛盾较为有限，高低硫价差近期处于底部反弹的阶段，但二者强弱格局暂无 太强的分化预期。 策略 燃料油日报 | 2025-11-14 油价大跌带动盘面价格走低 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌3.71%，报2595元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌4.41%，报3164 元/吨。 昨日原油价格大跌并带动FU、LU大幅走低，欧佩克最新发布的月度石油市场报告显示，随着全球供应增加，石油 市场将在2026年出现小幅过剩。此前欧佩克平衡表预测油市会保持供不应求的格局，欧佩克的态度转向对市场整 体预期存在重要影响。此前市场对于石油过剩问题有分歧，而随着新的机构报告出炉，主要机构对于未来的过剩 前景逐步达成共识。虽然制裁导致的市场分化依然存在，但Q3以来中东、拉美以及俄罗斯的石油供应出现大幅增 长，未来石油累库的问题会更加突出。排除地缘与宏观事件对情绪面的扰动外，基本面对油价的驱动偏空，并将 带动下游燃料油价格中枢整体下移。 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：逢低多LU2601-FU2601价差 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market, previously expected to face a significant glut, may not experience as severe an oversupply due to recent geopolitical developments, particularly US sanctions on Russia's major oil producers [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current oil glut is approximately 1.9 million barrels per day, with expectations that it will persist through 2026, but geopolitical factors may limit its growth [2]. - Demand remains robust, particularly from China, which has been stockpiling oil reserves, absorbing surplus that could have depressed prices [4]. - Middle Eastern demand has also been stronger than anticipated, and India has increased its purchases of cheaper Russian crude [4]. Production Trends - OPEC+ has consistently raised production targets for six consecutive months, with a recent increase of 137,000 barrels per day agreed upon in early October [5]. - There is a significant amount of oil, approximately 1.4 billion barrels, currently on tankers globally, indicating a potential oversupply situation [5]. Market Pricing - Brent crude futures have decreased over 13% since the start of the year, trading around $64, while West Texas Intermediate has fallen over 14% to around $60 [3]. - Despite the decline, both benchmarks have shown relatively stable trading patterns over the past six months [3]. Future Projections - The International Energy Agency projects that oversupply could reach an "untenable" four million barrels per day by 2026, which would double the average surplus observed earlier this year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil prices will stabilize due to ample supply, driven by increased production in the Americas and OPEC+ policy adjustments, alongside slowing demand growth [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA's Executive Director, Fatih Birol, states that the oil market is expected to remain stable without significant geopolitical events, with only a minor boost to prices anticipated from potential US-China trade agreements [1] - Oil production growth in the "Five Americas" (the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina) has outpaced demand growth, leading to an oversupply in the oil market [1] - Demand growth is slowing primarily due to China's gradual reduction in reliance on heavy industry and fuel-powered vehicles [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The IEA has raised its forecast for oil surplus by 2026, predicting a record level of oversupply by that time [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Recent US sanctions on major Russian oil producers have raised concerns about actual oil supply, resulting in a nearly 8% increase in crude oil prices [1] - Indian refineries, as major buyers of Russian oil, have announced a halt in purchases, and some Chinese refineries are also experiencing panic-driven stoppages in procurement [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, and the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened. The geopolitical premium faded, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers heading to major trading and transportation centers, on - land inventory pressure increased significantly in October, which is the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. [7] - Tensions in the Middle East flared up again as the Israeli Defense Forces carried out an air - strike on southern Gaza. Meanwhile, multiple factors influenced Russian oil supply, with India stating it would stop purchasing Russian oil, but the export volume from Russia to India in the first half of October increased by 250,000 barrels per day month - on - month. [7] - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories fluctuated this week, and the total waterborne inventory remained flat. OPEC production increased by about 500,000 barrels per day in September, and crude oil net exports soared. Non - OPEC countries like Brazil, the US, Guyana, and Norway also saw a significant increase in crude oil net exports. [7] - This week, oil prices and global refinery profits weakened. The profit of gasoline in the external market was slightly stronger than that of diesel, while in the domestic market, gasoline was significantly weaker than diesel. During the peak maintenance period, downstream profits declined, and the domestic start - up rate was expected to weaken marginally. The demand side provided weak support for oil prices. [7] - The subsequent oil price trend depends on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the baseline scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is currently in the trend of waterborne inventory converting to OECD inventory. The expected surplus in 2026 is 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russia and Iran on their export volumes in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation phase. [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From October 17 to 23, WTI increased from $57.54 to $61.79, a rise of $3.29; BRENT rose from $61.29 to $65.99, an increase of $3.40; DUBAI went up from $63.26 to $65.24, a gain of $1.38. [3] - During the same period, SC increased by 12.50, OMAN rose by 4.93. The spread between SC and BRT changed by - 1.61, and the spread between SC and WTI changed by - 1.50. [3] - The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased from $537.00 to $551.50, and the spread between Japanese naphtha and BRT increased from $86.52 to $91.46. The Singapore 380CST fuel oil premium changed by 0.73, and the spread between Singapore 380 and BRT changed by - 6.65. [3] 2. Daily News - German Chancellor Merz is optimistic that the US will exempt the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. There are concerns that without the exemption, the German subsidiary may be cut off from major customers. [3] - The US government is preparing a proposal to open almost all US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which has been opposed by local governors. The preliminary draft indicates a significant expansion of areas eligible for oil and gas leasing in the US. [4] - Kuwait's oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production in response to rising demand. This statement was made against the backdrop of rising oil prices after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a decrease of 0.2%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, an increase of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.918 million barrels per day, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6] - For the week of October 10, US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected - 75,000 barrels, previous value - 1.601 million barrels), and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected - 294,000 barrels, previous value - 2.018 million barrels). [6] - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, while diesel production increased. Gasoline inventory increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and Dubai 1 - 2 weakened to 0. The geopolitical premium subsided, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers transporting to major trading and transportation centers recently, the on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Related Data - From October 16 - 22, WTI increased by $1.26, BRENT by $1.27, and DUBAI by $0.52. Other related indicators such as spreads and prices of refined products also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - On October 23, international oil prices soared 4% as the US Treasury Department blacklisted Russian state - owned oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year). The US Treasury Department stated that this move would weaken Russia's ability to raise revenue for the conflict. Oil prices were also supported by the growth of US energy demand, as the EIA reported a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [3][4]. - As of the week of October 20, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 2.202 million barrels to 20.014 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 0.851 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increasing by 0.668 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.385 million barrels [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - In the week of October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and the geopolitical premium subsided. The fundamental surplus intensified, and the latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026. The on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on Russian crude oil supply and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6].

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of an impending oil surplus, global crude oil prices remain resilient, trading around $67 per barrel, contrary to forecasts suggesting a drop to $50 or lower [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), predict significant oil surpluses, with the IEA forecasting a record surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day by 2026 and the EIA estimating a surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of this year [1][2]. - The current market is characterized by a "spot premium," where immediate delivery oil is priced higher than future delivery, indicating market tightness rather than an imminent surplus [2]. Group 2: China's Role in the Oil Market - China is viewed as a stabilizing force in the oil market, actively purchasing crude oil, which traders interpret as a sign of increasing consumption rather than oversupply [2]. - The IEA projects that global oil consumption will rise by only 700,000 barrels per day next year, marking the slowest growth since 2009, excluding the pandemic period [2]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Market Reactions - OPEC+ has increased production quotas by 2.5 million barrels per day since April, but actual production increases are expected to be lower due to several member countries reaching maximum capacity [3]. - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ fails to meet production targets, the anticipated surplus may be smaller than predicted, potentially limiting downward pressure on oil prices [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some analysts believe that the anticipated surplus may not significantly impact oil prices, as long as demand from China continues and OPEC+ maintains limited spare capacity [3][4]. - There is a sentiment that when too many traders align on a bearish outlook, it often does not materialize, indicating that unexpected factors could influence market dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that China will continue to accelerate its crude oil reserves this year and by 2026, driven by falling oil prices and concerns over energy security [1] Group 1: Oil Inventory and Demand - Goldman Sachs' oil research head Daan Struyven estimates that China's oil inventory will increase by 500,000 barrels per day over the next five quarters [1] - Despite China's significant oil purchases, Goldman Sachs still expects Brent crude prices to drop to around $55 per barrel next year [1] - Gunvor Group's research head Frederic Lasserre estimates that China's oil inventory has been increasing by approximately 200,000 barrels per day in recent months [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Participants at the Asia-Pacific Oil Conference indicated that China's purchases are helping to support demand and push up oil prices amid an impending global oil surplus [1] - The International Energy Agency forecasts that record oil surplus in 2026 will be larger than previously predicted due to increased production from OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries [1] Group 3: Current Oil Prices - As of the report, WTI crude is down 1.01% at $61.74 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 0.93% at $65.75 per barrel [1]