Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a situation of supply contraction, weak demand, and improving profits. Liquid caustic soda is expected to stabilize in the short term, and prices in Shandong may rise slightly. The futures market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in Shandong spot prices and the cost - side logic transformation caused by liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4]. - For trading strategies, a unilateral long position in caustic soda is recommended as prices may rise steadily; for arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, the number of caustic soda plant overhauls increased. The national sample enterprise operating load rate dropped to 88.47% (a 1.37% week - on - week decrease), and the output of 100% equivalent caustic soda decreased to 856,300 tons (a 1.52% week - on - week decrease), slightly alleviating the short - term supply pressure [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the core downstream alumina industry dropped to 80.29% (a 1.08% week - on - week decrease), weakening the support for caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries such as viscose staple fiber saw a slight increase in operating rates, but overall procurement remained at a just - in - time level, and most purchases were made at low prices, resulting in a lukewarm market [4]. - Inventory side: There was a significant differentiation in inventory. For liquid caustic soda, the overall sample inventory in East China decreased by 10.25%, but the factory inventory in Shandong increased by 6.01%. For flake caustic soda, due to shipping issues and hoarding by traders, the social inventory in East China surged by 55.56%, and traders faced greater pressure to sell [4]. - Profit side: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (ECU) was significantly repaired due to the sharp rebound in liquid chlorine prices, despite the decline in caustic soda prices. The profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong increased by 49.18% to 160.2 yuan/ton, which may support manufacturers' willingness to maintain production [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Caustic soda prices may rise steadily [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants was at a high level, and prices continued to decline. From November 14 to December 6, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong decreased from 730 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton [7][9]. - As of December 18, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a 1.66% week - on - week increase and a 52.34% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.41%, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Different regions showed different inventory trends [11]. - The supply contradiction in the alumina spot market became more prominent. Although the operating capacity of alumina was basically stable this week, the inventory of alumina at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise. The supply contradiction is expected to continue to be reflected in limited spot transactions [15][18]. - This week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.7%, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease. Different regions had different changes in load [20]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Caustic soda futures price: Various indicators such as price trends, basis, open interest, and warehouse receipts of SH01 contracts are presented [24]. - 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are shown [27]. - 50% caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 50% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [30]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: The price trends of flake caustic soda in Shandong, Southwest, Northwest, Guangdong, and Guangxi are shown [32]. - Caustic soda variety spread: The price spreads between different types of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [34]. - Caustic soda regional spread: The price spreads of caustic soda between different regions are presented [37]. - Caustic soda profit: The profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the price trends of liquid chlorine, are shown [39]. Inventory Data - Caustic soda inventory: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented [41]. - Caustic soda inventory by province: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu are presented [45]. Production Data - Caustic soda production: The production trends of caustic soda and solid caustic soda are presented [48]. - Caustic soda production by province: The production trends of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are presented [50]. New Capacity and Overhaul - New capacity: In 2025, a total of 2.1 million tons of new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production, and some projects have already been successfully launched. In the alumina industry, a large amount of new capacity is expected to be put into production at the end of this year and next year [51][52][64]. - Plant overhauls: A list of caustic soda plant overhauls in different regions and enterprises is presented [54]. Consumption Data - Caustic soda consumption: The demand and weekly consumption trends of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda are presented [56][57]. Alumina - related Data - Alumina operating capacity: The production, operating capacity, and operating rate trends of alumina are presented [60][61]. Downstream Industry Data - Viscose staple fiber: This week, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a 1.75% week - on - week increase [66]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The operating rates in different regions had different trends, and the overall market atmosphere was stable [70]. Export Data - Caustic soda export: The export volume, FOB price, and export profit trends of caustic soda are presented [72][73]. - Caustic soda export destinations: The export volume trends of caustic soda to Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam are presented [76]. - Overseas alumina new capacity: In 2025, it is estimated that 4.5 million tons of new alumina capacity will be put into production overseas, and most of the new alumina plants in Indonesia have already been put into operation, and the caustic soda procurement has been completed [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The later stage of caustic soda still faces pressure. The supply side has high production and inventory, and the winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, resulting in large supply pressure. The demand side is affected by the low profit of alumina, seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand, and weak export, making it difficult to support the overall demand. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation, and it is difficult to rebound significantly without production reduction by manufacturers [5][6]. 2.2 PVC - The trend of PVC is weak. The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The export market competition pressure increases in 2025, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. Although there may be phased rebounds, the space is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but the supply - side production reduction in the maintenance peak season in the next year can be expected [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The main logic of short - sellers includes high supply, high inventory, continuous expectation of alumina production reduction, new capacity in the next year, slowdown in export growth, and changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums. The main logic of long - sellers includes anti - deflation and anti - involution trends, large losses in integrated profits of caustic soda and PVC, and expansion of the export market due to overseas plant shutdowns [13]. - The basis of caustic soda 01 fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 month spread weakens [16]. - The export market of caustic soda still has support but also faces structural adjustment. In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda export volume was 330,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.39% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 2.944 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.93%. The cumulative export of caustic soda from January to October was 3.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. It is expected that the annual export in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year and exceed 4 million tons [20][23]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable, and the spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda declines, which is negative for caustic soda. The spread between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda also declines, which is negative for caustic soda [31][34][36]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and an increase in inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China is 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country is 464,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34% [43][44][45]. - Attention should be paid to the significant reduction in maintenance after December. There are many enterprises in different regions with maintenance plans [49]. - Caustic soda will continue to be put into production in 2025 and 2026, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%. In 2025, the planned production capacity is 1.9 million tons, and in 2026, the planned and under - construction production capacity that can be put into production is 2.56 million tons [51]. - In December, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province is reduced, and the cost of caustic soda is difficult to support. The price of liquid chlorine does not provide significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [52][56]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the alumina capacity expands greatly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. As of November 2025, 8.3 million tons of new alumina production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that there will still be 1.7 million tons of capacity to be put into operation in 2025, but the specific progress needs to be followed up. In 2026, the new alumina production capacity is expected to reach 13.9 million tons, with 76% in the southern market and 24% in the northern market [74][75][76]. - The alumina industry has a negative impact on caustic soda. The low profit of alumina leads to cautious procurement of caustic soda by alumina plants, a decrease in inventory levels, and difficulty in transferring caustic soda inventory downstream, resulting in a decline in caustic soda prices [90]. - The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The new capacity of pulp continues to be put into production, with 3.901 million tons in 2025 and 3.496 million tons in 2026 [91][97]. - The开工 rate of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries declines, the water treatment industry has stable operation, and the output of the ternary precursor industry declines [103][105][107]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The main contract of PVC changes, the basis fluctuates and strengthens, and the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuates and weakens [112]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 77.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. The ethylene - based method is 76.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.36% and a year - on - year increase of 0.22%. The calcium carbide - based method is 77.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04% [118][119]. - In December 2025, the maintenance of PVC decreases. There are long - term parking, maintenance, and temporary parking, as well as later - planned maintenance situations in different regions [121]. - As of 2025, 2.2 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been put into operation, and there is no new production capacity in 2026 [122]. - The chlor - alkali plants in Shandong are in a loss situation, reaching the cash - flow cost. The integrated profit of the northwest chlor - alkali plants is at a low level, and the impact of profit on supply is weakened in winter [124][127]. - PVC production enterprises have a slight inventory build - up, and the social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC开工 rate decreases month - on - month [128][133][139]. - In October 2025, the PVC export volume is 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October is 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export volume decreases by 9.91% month - on - month, increases by 34.28% year - on - year compared with the same month of last year, and the cumulative export volume increases by 48.88% year - on - year. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports [146]. - The PVC warehouse receipts decline but are still at a high level [148].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Short - term: Maintenance in Shandong and other regions and rigid demand procurement by alumina plants limit the downside space of caustic soda prices. Mid - term: From June to July, new production capacities such as Qingdao Bay and Gansu Yaowang will be put into operation in a concentrated manner. Coupled with limited demand growth, the supply - demand is expected to turn into surplus [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price - On June 4, the closing price of the main contract (SH2509) of caustic soda was 2367 yuan/ton, a 1.95% decline from the previous trading day. In Shandong, the mainstream market transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda was 840 - 925 yuan/ton, and that of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda was 1350 - 1410 yuan/ton. The purchase price of 32% liquid caustic soda by large downstream alumina plants was 840 yuan/ton. The mainstream market transaction price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 930 - 1020 yuan/ton, and that of 48% liquid caustic soda was 1480 - 1570 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda plants with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a 1.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [7]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.09 percentage points to 78.37%. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.65%, a 0.35% decrease from the previous period. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region increased by 2.55% to 63.23% [7]. 3.3 Inventory - The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 392,600 tons (wet tons). Compared with the previous week, it decreased by 2.08% but increased by 10.22% year - on - year [8]. 3.4 Profit - On May 29, the cost - profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 495 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous week, it increased by 90 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 22.22%. The profit recovered significantly compared with 405 yuan/ton on May 22 [8].