烧碱价格稳中偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4940元/吨（+43）；华东基差-320元/吨（-43）;华南基差-310元/吨（-43）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4620元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4630元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（+25）；电石利润-85元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-634元/吨（+80）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-192元/吨（+87）；PVC出口利润-18.2美元/吨（+3.8）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-01-13 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.8万吨（+1.9）；PVC社会库存54.6万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.23%（+2.00%）； PVC乙烯法开工率75.69%（+0.41%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.51%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量90.9万吨（+9.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2180元/吨（-44）；山东32%液碱基差-30元/吨（+44）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价688元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价 ...

机构观点 新湖期货：供应端开工维持高位并有进一步增加的预期，新增产能带来进一步的供应压力。利润虽然较 前期压缩，但企业仍能够维持生产，且液氯需求良好。需求方面，氧化铝高产量高库存，亏损扩大，山 西、河南等地氧化铝厂有减产预期，非铝下游刚需为主。未来预期烧碱价格仍偏弱，且缺少明显的向上 驱动。 华泰期货：后市来看，烧碱1月计划检修企业较少，供应压力难缓解；非铝下游进入季节性开工下滑淡 季，中长期氧化铝受反内卷政策影响，对烧碱的需求存收缩预期。近期烧碱供需偏弱，后续重点关注装 置检修动态及液氯价格变动。 1月6日，烧碱前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓15.55万手，空单持仓17.01万手，多空比 0.91。净持仓为-1.45万手，相较上日增加6460手。 近期华北、华东、华南地区部分装置恢复，带动烧碱全国平均产能利用率环比上升。 1月7日，烧碱期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨4.43%，报2263.0元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 1月6日浙江市场省内32%液碱送到萧绍价格在980-1020元/吨附近，48%离子膜碱1450-1550元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a situation of supply contraction, weak demand, and improving profits. Liquid caustic soda is expected to stabilize in the short term, and prices in Shandong may rise slightly. The futures market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in Shandong spot prices and the cost - side logic transformation caused by liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4]. - For trading strategies, a unilateral long position in caustic soda is recommended as prices may rise steadily; for arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, the number of caustic soda plant overhauls increased. The national sample enterprise operating load rate dropped to 88.47% (a 1.37% week - on - week decrease), and the output of 100% equivalent caustic soda decreased to 856,300 tons (a 1.52% week - on - week decrease), slightly alleviating the short - term supply pressure [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the core downstream alumina industry dropped to 80.29% (a 1.08% week - on - week decrease), weakening the support for caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries such as viscose staple fiber saw a slight increase in operating rates, but overall procurement remained at a just - in - time level, and most purchases were made at low prices, resulting in a lukewarm market [4]. - Inventory side: There was a significant differentiation in inventory. For liquid caustic soda, the overall sample inventory in East China decreased by 10.25%, but the factory inventory in Shandong increased by 6.01%. For flake caustic soda, due to shipping issues and hoarding by traders, the social inventory in East China surged by 55.56%, and traders faced greater pressure to sell [4]. - Profit side: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (ECU) was significantly repaired due to the sharp rebound in liquid chlorine prices, despite the decline in caustic soda prices. The profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong increased by 49.18% to 160.2 yuan/ton, which may support manufacturers' willingness to maintain production [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Caustic soda prices may rise steadily [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants was at a high level, and prices continued to decline. From November 14 to December 6, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong decreased from 730 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton [7][9]. - As of December 18, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a 1.66% week - on - week increase and a 52.34% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.41%, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Different regions showed different inventory trends [11]. - The supply contradiction in the alumina spot market became more prominent. Although the operating capacity of alumina was basically stable this week, the inventory of alumina at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise. The supply contradiction is expected to continue to be reflected in limited spot transactions [15][18]. - This week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.7%, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease. Different regions had different changes in load [20]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Caustic soda futures price: Various indicators such as price trends, basis, open interest, and warehouse receipts of SH01 contracts are presented [24]. - 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are shown [27]. - 50% caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 50% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [30]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: The price trends of flake caustic soda in Shandong, Southwest, Northwest, Guangdong, and Guangxi are shown [32]. - Caustic soda variety spread: The price spreads between different types of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [34]. - Caustic soda regional spread: The price spreads of caustic soda between different regions are presented [37]. - Caustic soda profit: The profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the price trends of liquid chlorine, are shown [39]. Inventory Data - Caustic soda inventory: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented [41]. - Caustic soda inventory by province: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu are presented [45]. Production Data - Caustic soda production: The production trends of caustic soda and solid caustic soda are presented [48]. - Caustic soda production by province: The production trends of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are presented [50]. New Capacity and Overhaul - New capacity: In 2025, a total of 2.1 million tons of new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production, and some projects have already been successfully launched. In the alumina industry, a large amount of new capacity is expected to be put into production at the end of this year and next year [51][52][64]. - Plant overhauls: A list of caustic soda plant overhauls in different regions and enterprises is presented [54]. Consumption Data - Caustic soda consumption: The demand and weekly consumption trends of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda are presented [56][57]. Alumina - related Data - Alumina operating capacity: The production, operating capacity, and operating rate trends of alumina are presented [60][61]. Downstream Industry Data - Viscose staple fiber: This week, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a 1.75% week - on - week increase [66]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The operating rates in different regions had different trends, and the overall market atmosphere was stable [70]. Export Data - Caustic soda export: The export volume, FOB price, and export profit trends of caustic soda are presented [72][73]. - Caustic soda export destinations: The export volume trends of caustic soda to Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam are presented [76]. - Overseas alumina new capacity: In 2025, it is estimated that 4.5 million tons of new alumina capacity will be put into production overseas, and most of the new alumina plants in Indonesia have already been put into operation, and the caustic soda procurement has been completed [81].

Core Insights - The domestic liquid caustic soda market is experiencing weak transaction activity, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda declining in various regions due to low demand from downstream industries and traders [1][2] - The overall operating rate of major sample enterprises in the country has decreased slightly, indicating a reduction in production activity [1][2] - Inventory levels for 32% liquid caustic soda have increased in several regions, reflecting a lack of purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers [2] Price Trends - Prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong are currently between 680-775 RMB/ton, while 50% liquid caustic soda is priced at 1150-1170 RMB/ton [1] - The price of liquid caustic soda is expected to continue to trend weakly due to ongoing supply pressures and a lack of significant demand [2] Inventory Levels - As of November 26, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China has risen to 261,400 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous week [2] - In Shandong, the inventory for 32% liquid caustic soda has increased by 9.19% to 124,800 tons, attributed to high operating rates and low unloading efficiency from aluminum oxide enterprises [2] Market Outlook - The caustic soda industry is facing ongoing supply and demand pressures, with high production levels and elevated inventories leading to a weak price outlook [2] - The traditional demand off-season is persisting, and there is no significant boost from exports, suggesting that prices will likely remain weak in the near term [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises are operating at a high level, and there are still vehicle - queuing situations at major downstream enterprises. Enterprises have high inventories, and there are no short - term positive factors. The price is expected to be weak in the next week. In the East China region, supply will remain abundant, the traditional off - season for demand will continue, and exports are not significantly boosted. It is estimated that the price in East China will continue to decline. Overall, the demand side provides weak support, and there are still long - term supply - demand pressures. The price of caustic soda is expected to run weakly [2]. - Futures strategy advice: Adopt a bearish approach. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. PVC - The supply pressure will not ease next week, and the operating rate still has room for improvement. The operating rate of pipe and profile products remains low, while the soft products will remain in high demand, and export orders may increase slightly. The cost - side support is expected to continue to strengthen, and the PVC market is expected to continue to operate in a range. From November to January of the following year is the traditional off - season for demand. As outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real - estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, the inventory in the Indian region is currently at a high level, the purchasing enthusiasm is average, the international market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The overall demand side provides weak support for PVC, the supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, the price is not optimistic, and although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form a continuous upward drive. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [3]. - Futures strategy advice: Treat rebounds with a bearish attitude. - Options strategy advice: Stay on the sidelines. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda Market Performance - The caustic soda market has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand relationships, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the market accelerated its decline. The spot market was in a game, and there were concerns about the marginal weakening under the subsequent supply recovery, with the downstream demand being stable [6]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.86%, a 0.17 - percentage - point increase from 89.69% last week. There were few chlor - alkali device overhauls this week, and the operating load rate increased slightly. In Shandong, it was 91.45%, a decrease of 0.21% [25]. - On December 3rd, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China was 253,150 tons, a 3.16% decrease from 261,400 tons on November 26th. The inventory in Shandong decreased slightly due to some factories delivering goods to downstream, and the overall inventory in East China decreased. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in Shandong was 120,400 tons, a 3.53% decrease from 124,800 tons on November 26th [25]. Device Dynamics - There are multiple caustic soda production enterprises with various overhaul situations, including long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined; Zhejiang Juhua in the East China has been operating at half - load since October 11, continuing until January 1, 2026 [26]. Downstream Demand - Alumina: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 1.23 billion tons (including 200 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%. The estimated annual alumina production in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is estimated to require an additional 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increase for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - Currently, the domestic alumina futures and spot prices are both poor, market confidence has not been significantly restored, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak adjustment trend, with the price operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton [34]. - Non - aluminum downstream industries: The textile operating rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber operating rate has increased [49]. Export - In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [56]. PVC Market Performance - The PVC futures market has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - sentiment, and cost. For example, due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere, the futures price has continued to decline [63]. Profit - The industry profit of PVC has continued to deteriorate, and the profits of various production methods such as the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China and the northwest region have shown different degrees of decline [69]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased slightly. Only one enterprise had a temporary shutdown this week, and the previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumed production, resulting in a decrease in overhaul losses. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.01%, a 0.16 - percentage - point increase from last week; among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 82.09%, a 0.12 - percentage - point decrease; and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.92%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase [85]. Device Dynamics - There are long - term shutdowns, current overhauls, and future planned overhauls of PVC production enterprises. For example, Taiwen Yanhua in North China has been shut down since September 30, 2022, and the start - up time is undetermined; Ningbo Hanwha in East China plans to conduct an overhaul from December 15th to December 28th [87]. Downstream Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. In addition to demand issues, they also face industry competition, so the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate sector still provides negative demand feedback, and the domestic demand has not shown obvious improvement. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished product inventories are at high levels, so the PVC downstream is expected to lack positive drivers [93]. Inventory - The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared to the same period [101]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars/ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. In October 2025, the PVC import volume was 10,900 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 186,400 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year compared to the same month last year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [119].

Core Insights - The average weekly price of 32% caustic soda is 794 CNY/ton, down 0.75% month-on-month, while the average price of 50% caustic soda remains stable at 1250 CNY/ton [1] - In Shandong province, the market shows mixed performance, with increased inventory leading to price reductions, affecting the overall average price of 32% caustic soda [1] - In Jiangsu, the low-concentration liquid caustic soda market is trending weak, with a weekly average price of 910 CNY/ton, down 2.15% month-on-month, due to lack of demand despite some maintenance in production facilities [1] Inventory Analysis - As of November 12, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 204,200 tons, a decrease of 5.20% from November 5 [2] - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda is 100,800 tons, down 0.79% from November 5, with variations in inventory levels across different factories due to low-price sales and maintenance [2] - The caustic soda industry faces supply-demand pressure, particularly from the main downstream aluminum oxide buyers, leading to weak support for caustic soda prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. With fewer maintenance enterprises, the total supply shows an increasing trend. The price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to weaken, and the industry's profit keeps shrinking with increasing losses. Thus, the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, suppressing the price. In the short term, the caustic soda price lacks support. Although the middle and lower reaches may have phased replenishment needs after consuming their own inventories, the price is still under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The non - aluminum market remains sluggish. It is expected that the caustic soda price will run weakly in the short term, and a bearish trend is advised, while tracking the downstream replenishment rhythm [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved. The pressure on the supply side continues to rise, the demand expectation weakens, and the cost - side support is insufficient. There is no positive macro - level expectation for the time being. Therefore, the price is expected to continue to decline. The main downstream fields such as real estate are still weak. The new orders of profile and pipe product enterprises are limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, which is difficult to provide continuous support to the market. There will still be an impact from new production capacity on the supply side from November to December. The demand from November to January of the next year is in the traditional off - season, and the overall real - estate demand will decrease, forming a negative impact. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax in India is unclear, and exports are mainly on hold. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the price. Although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form an upward driving force, and it is expected to continue the downward trend at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, alumina demand, and cost. The price has shown fluctuations, with periods of decline due to factors like increased supply and weak downstream demand, and short - term rebounds due to factors such as policy expectations and increased demand from alumina [6]. - **Supply**: The national average weekly weighted operating load rate of sample enterprises is 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from last week. The caustic soda output in terms of 100% strength this week is 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from last week. There are many ongoing maintenance of chlor - alkali plants this week, but some enterprises with under - capacity operation have increased their loads, resulting in a slight increase in output [25]. - **Alumina Demand**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - **Alumina Market**: Although the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in the north has decreased recently, the domestic supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved, and the social inventory of alumina continues to increase. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to run weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [34]. - **Bauxite**: The bauxite price is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw - material inventory has increased significantly [38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production remained at a high level, and the in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased [44]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The operating rate of the printing and dyeing and textile industries has increased seasonally, and it is in the peak season. However, the overall non - aluminum downstream has not shown strong driving forces [49]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. It is estimated that the export profit will decline in October [54]. PVC - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC price has been on a downward trend due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere. The price has been affected by factors such as macro - sentiment, supply - demand changes, and export conditions, with periods of sharp declines and short - term rebounds [61]. - **Profit**: The PVC industry has been in a state of continuous losses, with losses in both the calcium - carbide and ethylene - based production methods [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The calcium carbide production has increased month - on - month, but the profit has weakened [72]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry has increased this week. Although there are 4 new enterprises for maintenance or shutdown, the overall maintenance loss has decreased, and the industry operating rate has increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week is 79.28%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase from last week [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector, with the goal of "de - inventorying and stabilizing prices", will continue to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the PVC downstream will not have positive drivers [93]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new - construction area showing weak performance [94]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has remained flat recently, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [101]. - **External Market**: The external market price of PVC has weakened, and the export situation is affected by factors such as anti - dumping taxes in India [108]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, and the export volume was 346,400 tons. The export volume has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [119].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the caustic soda market is experiencing a shift towards a stronger price trend due to supply reductions, increased demand, and recovering exports [2][6] - Since July, the market sentiment for caustic soda has been bullish, with futures prices rebounding significantly after hitting a low, with the 2601 contract increasing by over 500 yuan/ton [2] - The supply of caustic soda is expected to decrease due to maintenance schedules for several production facilities, which will support prices [2][6] Group 2 - The demand for caustic soda is anticipated to rise during the "golden September and silver October" period, driven by increased operating rates in industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and lithium hydroxide [4] - As of late August, the domestic alumina operating rate has risen to approximately 85%, an increase of over 15 percentage points from previous lows, with further increases expected [4] - Exports of caustic soda have also shown significant growth, with July exports reaching 30.78 million tons, markedly higher than the same period last year, and cumulative exports from January to July totaling 203.3 million tons, indicating a strong export outlook for the fourth quarter [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of caustic soda in the spot market is not over, but the time for a strong rally has not yet arrived. The core lies in the concentrated stockpiling in the alumina and export sectors. Short - term warehouse receipt factors may lead to a phased correction, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Zhejiang warehouse receipts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2732, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2688, and the basis is - 45 [3] - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises in Shandong over the weekend was raised by 15 yuan to 815 yuan. Before that, small - scale buyers in the province had already started to raise prices, and caustic soda plants slightly followed suit with a 10 - yuan increase over the weekend. Currently, the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province remains low, and attention should be focused on changes in the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises [3] Market Condition Analysis - The core driver of the current caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve during the peak season. In Guangxi, there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation by the end of this year. If the tank - filling and stockpiling go smoothly, the demand is expected to start in October. The caustic soda supply in Guangxi is tight, and most of the caustic soda for tank - filling needs to be purchased from outside. With the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread at a high level this year, the subsequent alumina stockpiling will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. If the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread remains strong and the 50 - 32% caustic soda price spread widens, caustic soda will face a continuous positive feedback, and the upward driving force will be stronger than the current situation [4] - The 9.3 military parade affects caustic soda transportation. Recently, the delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been continuously low, and its purchase price was further raised this weekend. Today, the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises is still lower than the daily consumption and has decreased compared to the previous period [4] - In terms of exports, the support is still strong. The export direction has expanded significantly year - on - year this year, but the stockpiling rhythm will affect the domestic caustic soda price. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC will limit the substantial expansion of the overall industry profit [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic data in May still showed resilience, and the Fed continued to pause rate cuts in its June meeting. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and changes in US tariff policies. In the supply - demand aspect, the quantity of low - concentration caustic soda delivered to major downstream industries in Shandong Province is expected to remain high this week, with non - aluminum downstream industries and traders resistant to high prices. There are both newly - added maintenance enterprises and downstream enterprises in the province, which is expected to have limited impact on the market. After the new alumina production capacity is put into operation, the demand has increased. The market has an expectation of continued price cuts, but the expectation is not too bad. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little, lacking new support, and the caustic soda 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level. The upper reference pressure level is 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has declined, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has converged. The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, 98% flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and alumina in Shandong have all decreased to varying degrees, with the price of liquid chlorine dropping by 98%. The prices of raw salt and viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures contracts compared with those of soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipt quantity [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the week from June 13 - 19, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, while those in the Northwest and East China increased their loads after equipment maintenance. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate in North China will slightly increase to about 81.8% this week, with a weekly output of about 798,600 tons [20]. - **Downstream (Alumina)**: The supply of alumina has decreased. An alumina enterprise in the southern region reduced its production capacity due to ore issues, slightly intensifying the tight supply situation in the south. As of June 19, the built - in production capacity of Chinese alumina was 112.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 87.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.89% [26]. - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 366,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first decreased and then increased, with an average weekly price of 1 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. It is expected to further decline to 77.02% this week. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.27% [35][36].