Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the caustic soda market is experiencing a shift towards a stronger price trend due to supply reductions, increased demand, and recovering exports [2][6] - Since July, the market sentiment for caustic soda has been bullish, with futures prices rebounding significantly after hitting a low, with the 2601 contract increasing by over 500 yuan/ton [2] - The supply of caustic soda is expected to decrease due to maintenance schedules for several production facilities, which will support prices [2][6] Group 2 - The demand for caustic soda is anticipated to rise during the "golden September and silver October" period, driven by increased operating rates in industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and lithium hydroxide [4] - As of late August, the domestic alumina operating rate has risen to approximately 85%, an increase of over 15 percentage points from previous lows, with further increases expected [4] - Exports of caustic soda have also shown significant growth, with July exports reaching 30.78 million tons, markedly higher than the same period last year, and cumulative exports from January to July totaling 203.3 million tons, indicating a strong export outlook for the fourth quarter [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of caustic soda in the spot market is not over, but the time for a strong rally has not yet arrived. The core lies in the concentrated stockpiling in the alumina and export sectors. Short - term warehouse receipt factors may lead to a phased correction, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Zhejiang warehouse receipts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2732, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2688, and the basis is - 45 [3] - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises in Shandong over the weekend was raised by 15 yuan to 815 yuan. Before that, small - scale buyers in the province had already started to raise prices, and caustic soda plants slightly followed suit with a 10 - yuan increase over the weekend. Currently, the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province remains low, and attention should be focused on changes in the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises [3] Market Condition Analysis - The core driver of the current caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve during the peak season. In Guangxi, there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation by the end of this year. If the tank - filling and stockpiling go smoothly, the demand is expected to start in October. The caustic soda supply in Guangxi is tight, and most of the caustic soda for tank - filling needs to be purchased from outside. With the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread at a high level this year, the subsequent alumina stockpiling will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. If the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread remains strong and the 50 - 32% caustic soda price spread widens, caustic soda will face a continuous positive feedback, and the upward driving force will be stronger than the current situation [4] - The 9.3 military parade affects caustic soda transportation. Recently, the delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been continuously low, and its purchase price was further raised this weekend. Today, the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises is still lower than the daily consumption and has decreased compared to the previous period [4] - In terms of exports, the support is still strong. The export direction has expanded significantly year - on - year this year, but the stockpiling rhythm will affect the domestic caustic soda price. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC will limit the substantial expansion of the overall industry profit [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic data in May still showed resilience, and the Fed continued to pause rate cuts in its June meeting. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and changes in US tariff policies. In the supply - demand aspect, the quantity of low - concentration caustic soda delivered to major downstream industries in Shandong Province is expected to remain high this week, with non - aluminum downstream industries and traders resistant to high prices. There are both newly - added maintenance enterprises and downstream enterprises in the province, which is expected to have limited impact on the market. After the new alumina production capacity is put into operation, the demand has increased. The market has an expectation of continued price cuts, but the expectation is not too bad. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little, lacking new support, and the caustic soda 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level. The upper reference pressure level is 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has declined, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has converged. The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, 98% flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and alumina in Shandong have all decreased to varying degrees, with the price of liquid chlorine dropping by 98%. The prices of raw salt and viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures contracts compared with those of soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipt quantity [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the week from June 13 - 19, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, while those in the Northwest and East China increased their loads after equipment maintenance. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate in North China will slightly increase to about 81.8% this week, with a weekly output of about 798,600 tons [20]. - **Downstream (Alumina)**: The supply of alumina has decreased. An alumina enterprise in the southern region reduced its production capacity due to ore issues, slightly intensifying the tight supply situation in the south. As of June 19, the built - in production capacity of Chinese alumina was 112.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 87.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.89% [26]. - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 366,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first decreased and then increased, with an average weekly price of 1 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. It is expected to further decline to 77.02% this week. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.27% [35][36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term: Maintenance in Shandong and other regions and rigid - demand procurement from alumina plants limit the downside space of caustic soda prices [9]. - Medium - term: From June to July, new production capacities such as Qingdao Gulf and Gansu Yaowang will be concentratedly put into production, and with limited demand growth, there is a strong expectation of supply - demand turning to surplus [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Group - On June 16, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract (SH2509) was 2,276 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day [6]. - For 32% ion - membrane caustic soda: In southwestern Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was 850 - 870 yuan/ton (slightly up from June 10, with a month - on - month increase of over 2% in early June according to the National Bureau of Statistics); in east - central Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was 860 - 930 yuan/ton, with some enterprises having tight supply due to maintenance; in northern Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was 880 - 940 yuan/ton, supported by the rigid demand of alumina plants; in southern Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was 880 - 900 yuan/ton, and the regional price difference narrowed [6]. - For 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, the mainstream transaction price was 1,360 - 1,460 yuan/ton, and the export quotation in East China was boosted by international demand [6]. Supply and Demand Group - Supply: This week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Demand: In the alumina industry, the capacity utilization rate was 78.4%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.5%, down 0.15% from the previous week; the operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.5%, up 0.27% from the previous week [7]. Inventory Group - As of June 12, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 378,000 tons (wet tons), down 1.07% from the previous week and up 4.2% year - on - year. The slowdown in inventory reduction reflects the weakening of demand resilience [7]. Profit Group - The profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week, reaching 632 yuan/ton. The cost support came from the stable price of raw salt at 280 - 300 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term fluctuations, with pressure in the later period. Although affected by the supply disruption of bauxite in Guinea and the rise of alumina, there is a lack of continuous upward drive from the fundamental perspective. The downstream inventory - building sustainability determines the rebound duration. In the future, it will still be in a high - production pattern, and profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand in the later period [5][6]. - **PVC**: Weak and fluctuating. Although the Sino - US phased reconciliation has a positive impact on sentiment, the current high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease. High production is difficult to change in the short term, and high - inventory pressure persists. Profit compression and supply reduction are required to balance supply and demand [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price**: The price of the cheapest deliverable product in Shandong is about 2,594 yuan/ton. The 09 basis of caustic soda has strengthened, and the 7 - 9 spread has oscillated at a low level. The 50 - 32 alkali spread is slightly higher than the evaporation cost, which is positive for caustic soda. The export expectation in May has improved, mainly due to the resumption of nickel production capacity in Indonesia [11][16][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The market contradiction is first reflected in the spread, which will return in the medium term. The 50 - 32 alkali spread is an advanced indicator of the market. The export profit is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the signing of export orders. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is generally limited [21][29][30]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - **Market Structure**: Production has declined, and inventory has increased. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 82.6%, a 1.3% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a 7.09% increase from the previous week and a 1.74% increase from the same period last year [37][38]. - **Maintenance and New Capacity**: Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from June to August. In 2025, the new caustic soda production capacity will be 2.55 million tons, with a capacity increase of 5.2%. However, considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity launch may be lower than expected [44][47]. - **Profit and Downstream**: The price of liquid chlorine has declined, the price of caustic soda has increased, and the chlor - alkali profit has declined. The current profit situation is very good, and power - self - supplying enterprises have no motivation to reduce production, while grid - power enterprises still have a large profit margin. The start - up of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform has different trends [48][51][53]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Alumina production and inventory have declined, and profits have rebounded. Most alumina enterprises are still in a loss state, and new maintenance and production - reduction capacities are gradually increasing. Low - profit situations weaken the inventory - building efforts for caustic soda. The new production line of Weiqiao in May is expected to increase short - term demand for caustic soda, while the caustic soda procurement efforts of Wenfeng may weaken next month [73][77][84]. - **Non - Aluminum Industries**: The pulp industry has capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the start - up has declined. The start - up of the finished paper industry has decreased month - on - month. The start - up of the viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries has recovered, and the short - term demand has warmed up. The start - up of the water treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, and the start - up of the ternary precursor industry has been stable [86][97][100]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - **Price and Spread**: The PVC basis has weakened, and the 9 - 1 spread has strengthened [114]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The start - up of PVC has declined month - on - month but has not reached the level of production reduction in 2023. After mid - May 2025, PVC maintenance has gradually increased. There will be 2.1 million tons of new PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, and there will be concentrated production capacity launches from June to July. The profit of northwest integrated plants has declined but has not yet reached a loss state [117][118][119]. - **Demand**: PVC downstream industries have increased month - on - month, and PVC production enterprises and social inventories are in the process of destocking. The number of warehouse receipts will rise again [124][129][130].

Core Viewpoint - As of April 30, 2025, the caustic soda futures market shows a slight upward trend, with the main contract closing at 2479 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.64% [1] Market Performance - The caustic soda futures opened at 2425 CNY/ton, peaked at 2481 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 2403 CNY/ton during the week [1] - The trading volume decreased by 31,192 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more was 83.9%, up by 1.8% from the previous week [1] - New production facilities were restarted in regions including Northwest, Central China, East China, South China, and Southwest, contributing to varying degrees of load increase [1] - A reduction in production was noted in North China, leading to a decline in load [1] Pricing Trends - On April 30, liquid chlorine prices in some areas of Shandong dropped by 100-150 CNY, while prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - The procurement price for caustic soda in major alumina plants in Shanxi for May remained stable compared to April, with the delivered price for 50% ion membrane liquid caustic soda around 2840-2940 CNY/ton [1] Future Market Outlook - Current caustic soda production is at a high level year-on-year, and the overall profit margins in the chlor-alkali sector remain acceptable, with manufacturers showing low willingness to conduct maintenance [1] - The spot market for caustic soda remains under pressure, with a recommendation for traders to take profits on short positions before the holiday and adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - One德期货 suggests that the comprehensive profit margins are slightly below neutral, with significant fluctuations in liquid chlorine prices and a downward trend in liquid caustic soda prices [1] - Demand from textile printing and dyeing sectors is weak, while recovery in other demand areas remains slow [1] - Tariffs have minimal direct impact on caustic soda, but there are expectations of weakened terminal demand [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - The overall comprehensive profit of caustic soda was relatively high in the first quarter of this year, and enterprises had a weak willingness to reduce production through maintenance, mostly maintaining high operation rates [4][10] - The cost of caustic soda mainly consists of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda for enterprises with self - supplied power plants may further decrease, and the expectation of loss - induced production reduction is difficult to occur [4][10] - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than the same period last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. The demand for alumina also declined due to cost - related maintenance and production reduction of some alumina enterprises, and the short - term stocking demand for caustic soda in alumina plants was weak [4][10] Group 2: Upstream Device Maintenance and Production Reduction - Upstream production enterprises generally conduct a large - scale routine maintenance every 2 - 3 years and a small - scale production line rotation inspection every year. In the first quarter of this year, due to high comprehensive profits, most enterprises maintained high operation rates [4][10] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost of caustic soda is mainly composed of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly, with the price of raw salt in surveyed chlor - alkali enterprises ranging from 280 - 300 yuan/ton (delivered). The cost of self - supplied power plants is lower, and with the decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda may further decrease [4][10] Group 4: Downstream Demand - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. Downstream enterprises and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand. Non - aluminum terminal inventories were generally low, showing a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality [4][10] - Recently, the price of alumina was low, and some alumina enterprises reduced production due to cost issues, dragging down the rigid demand for caustic soda. Alumina plants had high inventories of caustic soda raw materials, and the short - term stocking demand was weak [4][10] Group 5: Specific Situation of Surveyed Enterprises Caustic Soda Enterprise A - It has a designed capacity of 150,000 tons and an actual capacity of 200,000 tons, with chloroacetic acid as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and some liquid chlorine sold externally [11] - It purchases industrial electricity externally, with a production electricity price of over 0.6 yuan, a delivered price of raw sea salt of 300 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive production cost of about 2,400 yuan/ton [11] - The current direct sales ratio is about 60% - 70%, with a target of 80% [12] Caustic Soda Enterprise B - It has a capacity of 200,000 tons, with CPE as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and a small amount of liquid chlorine sold externally [13] - It has a storage capacity of 15,000 tons, a normal inventory level of 5,000 tons, and an inventory of about 2,000 - 3,000 tons during the survey [14] - It purchases electricity externally, with a delivered price of sea salt for production of 250 - 260 yuan/ton and a full production cost of caustic soda between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan [14] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will bottom out and rebound, with a minimum price of - 350 yuan. In April, there were few export orders, and the export outlook for May was not optimistic [16] - During the survey, it was believed that the spot price of caustic soda could still rise, but the duration might be short. Qingdao Bay planned to officially put into operation 200,000 tons in May, and Jinling planned to start the 50% caustic soda device on April 19th [17] Enterprise C (Caustic Soda Flakes Trader) - It is a secondary trader of caustic soda flakes, mainly sourcing from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. During the survey, the social inventory of caustic soda flakes in Shandong was low due to traders' pessimistic expectations [18] - The freight from Inner Mongolia to Shandong is 240 - 260 yuan/ton excluding tax, and from Xinjiang to Shandong is 480 yuan/ton. Shandong's caustic soda flakes mainly come from Inner Mongolia [18] - It has a short - term bearish view on the market, and the price of caustic soda flakes in Inner Mongolia was 3,250 yuan/ton during the survey, with an expected further decline [18] Enterprise D (Liquid Chlorine Trader) - It is a liquid chlorine trader. Due to the high requirements for production and transportation, the threshold for liquid chlorine traders is high [19] - The sales radius is generally within 300 kilometers. Liquid chlorine is usually shipped on the same day or the next day without inventory [19] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will not decline too much in the short term and may rebound to 1 - 100 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range between - 300 and 200 yuan/ton. The liquid chlorine markets in Shandong and Jiangsu are differentiated, and summer is a relatively off - season for small liquid chlorine - consuming enterprises [21]