2025 年 12 月 18 日 高库存下的负反馈与减产博弈 ---2026 年烧碱期货年度行情展望 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2026 年烧碱市场的核心矛盾将围绕 "高供应、高库存" 与 "氧化铝低利润导致产业链负反馈" 之间展开。 在此背景下，市场难以出现趋势性牛市，全年价格中枢将承压，大概率在 "现金流成本线"与"下游阶段性补库" 构成的 宽幅区间内震荡运行。然而，这并非意味着市场缺乏机会。最大的价格弹性和不确定性将来自氯碱企业的超预期减产。因此， 2026 年烧碱的市场主线将是 "常态承压"与"脉冲反弹"的交织。重点跟踪高频库存数据、氧化铝投产节奏及产业利润的 边际变化。 我们的逻辑：1、2026 年国内烧碱国内终端需求增量有限，出口市场增量仍将较为突出。要重点关注氧化铝新产能投放带来 的烧碱区域内短期供需错配和氧化铝减产导致的刚需和囤货下滑。2、烧碱低利润格局将使得明年检修可能超预期，但大的 供应减产矛盾或来自于 PVC 导致烧碱的被动减产。3、2026 年烧碱交割规则面临修改，交割品升贴水和交割区 ...

Market Trends - Since the end of August, caustic soda futures prices have been on a downward trend, closing at 2343 RMB/ton as of November 6, with spot prices fluctuating between 2500-2600 RMB/ton without significant drops [1][2] - The main reasons for the continuous decline in futures prices include: a lack of significant inventory reduction during the autumn maintenance peak, a rebound in liquid chlorine prices boosting chlor-alkali plant profits, and a large number of warehouse receipts leading to pressure on speculative long positions [2][3] Supply and Production - In October, domestic caustic soda production reached 3.61 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.79%, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.22%, slightly down by 0.42% [7][9] - Despite maintenance affecting 771,000 tons of capacity, high operational rates have kept supply ample, with expectations of continued production increases in November [9] - The average gross profit for chlor-alkali enterprises in Shandong was 626 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.25% from the previous week [10] Demand and Inventory - The demand side shows signs of weakness, particularly in the alumina sector, where high operational rates have led to saturated inventory levels, causing a decline in caustic soda purchase prices [14][18] - By the end of October, national caustic soda inventory reached 442,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.84% and a year-on-year increase of 52.42% [18] - The overall supply-demand imbalance is attributed to high capacity utilization rates above 80% and weak demand from non-alumina sectors, leading to significant inventory accumulation [18] Market Outlook - Guotai Junan Futures suggests that the high production and inventory levels of caustic soda will continue, with limited supply-demand gaps expected in the winter maintenance season [21][22] - The outlook for November indicates a continued increase in production due to short maintenance periods and high operational willingness among chlor-alkali enterprises [23] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of caustic soda prices continuing to fluctuate downward, although the current futures market is deeply discounted [22][24]