Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2215.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.28% observed during the session [1][2] - Current market sentiment indicates that the caustic soda market is in a phase of weak oscillation, with no significant improvement in supply and demand [2] - Analysts suggest that the price may find support around 2100-2130 CNY/ton, while resistance is noted at 2300-2320 CNY/ton, indicating a cautious approach to trading strategies [2][3] Group 2 - Supply conditions remain ample as some chlor-alkali facilities that had reduced output are resuming production, contributing to a surplus in the market [2] - Demand from the alumina sector is stable, but other downstream industries such as viscose staple fiber and dyeing are experiencing seasonal declines in operating rates, leading to weak performance [2] - The overall sentiment in the market is expected to remain weak, with recommendations to avoid counter-trend operations and to observe market conditions before making decisions [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the core contradiction in the caustic soda market will revolve around the conflict between "high supply and high inventory" and "negative feedback in the industrial chain due to low profits in the alumina industry." The market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bull market, and the annual price center will be under pressure, likely oscillating within a wide range formed by the "cash - flow cost line" and "downstream periodic restocking." The market will feature an interweaving of "normal pressure" and "pulse rebounds," with the greatest price elasticity and uncertainty coming from unexpected production cuts by chlor - alkali enterprises. Key factors to track include high - frequency inventory data, the pace of alumina production capacity launch, and marginal changes in industrial profits [2][67]. - Domestic terminal demand for caustic soda in China will have limited incremental growth in 2026, while the export market will still show prominent growth. Attention should be paid to short - term supply - demand mismatches in the caustic soda market caused by new alumina production capacity launches and the decline in rigid demand and inventory hoarding due to alumina production cuts. The low - profit situation of caustic soda may lead to unexpected maintenance next year, and major supply - reduction contradictions may come from the passive production cuts of caustic soda caused by PVC. In 2026, the caustic soda delivery rules will be modified, which will change the premium and discount of delivery products and delivery areas, adjust the warehouse receipt trade flow, and intensify the impact of warehouse receipts on the market in the short term [2][67]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 2025 Caustic Soda Trend Review - The caustic soda market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations from expectation - driven to fundamentals - dominated. The annual trend can be divided into four main stages: a trend - based upward movement driven by strong expectations from early January to before the Spring Festival; a negative - feedback downward movement due to high profits and weak demand from after the Spring Festival to early May; an interweaving of cost collapse and rebounds from early May to August; and a continuous bottom - seeking under demand negative feedback and high inventory from September onwards [6]. - **First stage (Early January - Before the Spring Festival)**: Driven by the resonance of strong expectations and reality, including alumina industry capacity expansion, pre - production stocking, supply concerns from planned maintenance in South China, and increased overseas export orders, caustic soda prices rose, and inventory decreased. The futures main - contract price reached a maximum of 3358 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, an increase of about 14.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - **Second stage (After the Spring Festival - Early May)**: The market logic shifted. High profits led to high operating rates, but demand was weak. Non - aluminum demand recovered slowly, alumina enterprises reduced inventory and pressured prices, and South China's maintenance devices resumed production, leading to a downward trend in the market [8]. - **Third stage (Early May - August)**: Prices rebounded due to short - term restocking demand from new alumina production lines in early May, but cost collapse due to falling coal prices and lower electricity prices led to high profits and a "short - profit" trading logic. A rebound from late June to late August was driven by seasonal maintenance and policy expectations, but it did not change the loose supply - demand situation [9]. - **Fourth stage (September - Present)**: In the fourth quarter, the market continued to seek the bottom. Alumina production cuts due to low profits reduced demand, non - aluminum demand was limited, and exports faced pressure. High operating rates during the off - peak maintenance season led to high inventory, and prices hit new lows, falling below 2200 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 2026 Caustic Soda Demand Pattern - **External demand drives growth, and domestic demand shows differentiation**: In 2026, China's caustic soda demand pattern will feature external demand driving growth and domestic demand showing differentiation. The export market will remain the core growth driver, with the driving logic shifting to a "structural supply gap" in resource - rich countries like Indonesia. Domestic demand will vary: the alumina industry will have complex demand for caustic soda, the pulp and paper industry will have limited incremental demand, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable demand, and the printing and dyeing industry will have a stable but un - supportive demand [13]. - **Alumina industry**: In 2026, China's alumina industry will continue to expand production capacity, with about 13.9 million tons of new capacity planned to be put into production in the first half of the year. However, the industry is facing over - supply, and competition will intensify. The demand for caustic soda will show periodic and structural characteristics, with short - term pulse demand from new capacity launches and long - term suppression due to profit concerns. The overall profit situation of the alumina industry will determine the intensity of its demand for caustic soda, and cost - structure differences will lead to demand differentiation [14][22]. - **Pulp and paper industry**: In 2026, the global and Chinese pulp industry will face a complex situation of tightening overseas supply and expanding domestic supply. The demand for caustic soda will be mainly rigid, with limited growth elasticity and high cost sensitivity. Although new domestic chemical pulp capacity will be put into production, it will not significantly increase the overall demand for caustic soda [23][27]. - **Viscose staple fiber industry**: In 2026, the viscose staple fiber industry will have stable and rigid demand for caustic soda. The industry has a concentrated supply pattern, stable demand, and expected profit recovery, which will support high operating rates and continuous demand for caustic soda [30][31]. - **Printing and dyeing industry**: In 2026, the printing and dyeing industry will provide a stable demand base for caustic soda, but its weak profitability will limit its ability to support caustic soda prices. The industry is in a state of low profit or loss, and enterprises will adopt a conservative procurement strategy [35]. - **Export market**: In 2025, China's caustic soda exports increased significantly, with Indonesia becoming the largest export market. In 2026, exports are expected to continue to grow, with an expected year - on - year increase of over 20% and a total volume expected to exceed 4.5 million tons. However, potential risks include the construction of local production capacity in overseas markets, increased international competition, and uncertain trade policies [37][38]. 3.3 2026 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production cuts may exceed expectations**: In 2026, the caustic soda supply side will face the coexistence of "certain production capacity expansion" and "uncertain adjustment effects." The overall supply capacity will continue to grow, but the market will focus on the game between fixed costs and fluctuating marginal profits. Cash - flow cost will form a "hard bottom" for prices, and seasonal and policy - related factors will drive price fluctuations [43]. - **Expected production capacity and output**: In 2026, the caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase by 2.56 million tons, a 5% increase. However, the actual production capacity increase may be about 3% due to the influence of the loss situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries. The annual output is expected to reach or exceed 45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 5% [44]. - **Cost and profit**: In 2026, the core game on the supply side will revolve around cost and profit. The cost side is expected to provide stronger support, but profit expansion is difficult due to over - supply and weak downstream profitability. The effectiveness of profit - to - supply transmission needs to be verified, and large - scale and long - term active production cuts of caustic soda may depend on the passive production cuts caused by PVC [47]. - **Impact of loss in chlorine - consuming downstream industries**: The loss of chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC will affect the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn affects the comprehensive profit of caustic soda enterprises. When the comprehensive profit is in deficit, enterprises may reduce production. In 2026, the maintenance intensity in spring and summer may exceed that of this year [50]. - **Supply - demand mismatch due to seasonal maintenance and inventory hoarding**: Seasonal maintenance, especially from June to August, can ease the supply pressure. However, when the maintenance season ends, supply will increase. High inventory in 2025 has suppressed demand. When the off - season ends and downstream starts to stock up or new alumina production capacity is launched, a supply - demand mismatch may occur [56][59]. 4. Investment Outlook - **Single - side trading**: In terms of trends, the valuation of caustic soda is under pressure, but it is not advisable to short at the cash - flow cost. Attention should be paid to short - term long - buying opportunities brought by caustic soda supply cuts [3][67]. - **Calendar - spread arbitrage**: There is a positive - spread window period during the peak maintenance season. Attention should be paid to the rebound driven by production cuts and the corresponding downstream active inventory - hoarding space and rhythm [3][68]. - **Key time nodes**: After the Spring Festival, around the start of spring maintenance in March, the situation of summer maintenance from June to August, and before the National Day [3][68].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is mostly in the red, with the main contract opening at 2361.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 1.53% [1] - As of October 30, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises reached 442,600 tons, an increase of 6.84% month-on-month and 52.42% year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for caustic soda has slightly decreased due to recent maintenance and the restart of some previously halted production units [2] Group 2 - Newhu Futures indicates that the supply of caustic soda remains stable due to high operating rates and the pressure on downstream aluminum oxide profits, leading to limited room for further production increases [3] - Zhongyuan Futures notes that the short-term price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is expected to decline, as the current high operating rates at caustic soda plants are increasing supply while downstream demand is constrained [3] - Overall market expectations for caustic soda are weak, with the 2601 contract under pressure and attention on lower support levels [3]

1. Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Written Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoint - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, caustic soda futures declined significantly due to the overall weakness of the chemical sector. During the holiday, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market decreased, and the trading volume fluctuated slightly. The market in other regions was also weak. Future market trends depend on the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory of chlor-alkali plants [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market 4.1.1 Contract Market - On October 9, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, opened lower and continued to decline. The closing price was 2,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton or 2.58% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 117,000 lots to 291,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 18,857 lots to 103,000 lots [2] 4.1.2 Variety Price - Affected by the sluggish sentiment in the chemical market, all 12 caustic soda futures contracts declined. The near-month contract SH510 fell by more than 2.5%. The total open interest of the variety was 188,300 lots, an increase of 23,538 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 18,857 lots, and the capital inflow was 236 million yuan [4] 4.1.3 Related Market - The put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed better than the call options, with a significant increase in put option prices [6] - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong had minor adjustments of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas, while most areas remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong, central-eastern Shandong, and northern Shandong were 800 - 850 yuan/ton, 760 - 800 yuan/ton, and 780 - 850 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central-eastern Shandong was 1,270 - 1,330 yuan/ton [7][8] 4.2 Influencing Factors 4.2.1 Industry News - On the first working day around the National Day, the price of liquid chlorine from Xinfa in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton [9] - In October, the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by alumina enterprises in Xiaoyi, Shanxi decreased by 200 yuan/ton [10] 4.2.2 Technical Analysis - The caustic soda futures closed with a long negative line today, and the price is approaching the previous low. The MACD indicator has further weakened [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - During the week of September 15 - 19, 2025, the caustic soda futures price stopped falling and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.16%. Next week, as the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the operating rate is expected to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price rebounded this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH101) rose 81 yuan/ton to 2641 yuan/ton, a 3.16% increase. The highest price was 2657 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2548 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 114,000 lots, a decrease of 4,712 lots from last week. The trading volume increased by 316,000 lots to 1.852 million lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Except for the near - month SH510 contract, which declined, other caustic soda futures contracts generally rose this week, and the open interest of the main contract SH601 decreased [4]. - **Related Market**: The trading volume of caustic soda 01 contract options increased compared to last week, with call options performing stronger than put options. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2320 - 2680 point range [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped 70 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.05%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price rebounded while the spot price declined, and the basis turned negative, reaching - 141 yuan/ton as of Friday [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: As of September 18, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.9%, a 1.5% decrease from last week. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 378,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.02% increase from last week and an 18.22% increase year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 20.15%, a 0.75% increase from last week [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily price of the main caustic soda contract SH601 gradually increased, and the trading volume increased compared to last week [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - This week, the caustic soda futures price strengthened, and the open interest of the main contract decreased. The alumina operating rate remained at 84.0%. The non - aluminum demand showed that the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.52%, a 1.75% increase from last week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, the same as last week. Next week, as the previously maintained devices resume operation, the supply is expected to increase. Considering the high inventory and sufficient supply in Shandong before the National Day holiday, the spot price may continue to be weak. Future market trends need to focus on the purchasing volume of the main downstream and device fluctuations [14].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a mixed performance, with prices showing a downward trend and various institutions providing differing outlooks on future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2660.0 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 2674.0 CNY and a minimum of 2619.0 CNY, resulting in a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - The overall market performance for caustic soda is characterized by weak trading conditions and a downward trend [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Nanhua Futures indicates that the near-term spot market remains relatively strong without significant price drops, while downstream alumina plants are increasing delivery volumes but maintaining stable prices [1]. - Guoyuan Futures notes that there are expectations of maintenance on the supply side, which could lead to marginal improvements in the fundamentals, although current cost support remains weak [1]. - Newhu Futures highlights that while some maintenance has concluded, there are still plans for further maintenance, leading to stable overall operations [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Nanhua Futures suggests that future price movements will depend on the rhythm of the spot market, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm for downstream stocking [1]. - Newhu Futures anticipates that caustic soda prices may maintain a strong position in the short term due to replenishment demand as the peak season approaches, although there may be limitations on price increases later in September and October [2].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the fluctuating performance of caustic soda futures, with a current price of 2454.0 yuan, reflecting a 1.49% increase, while various institutions provide differing outlooks on future trends [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - Caustic soda futures showed a strong fluctuation, reaching a peak of 2456.0 yuan during trading [1] - The main contract for caustic soda is currently priced at 2454.0 yuan, with a 1.49% increase noted [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that the caustic soda September contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with support expected around the 2380 yuan level [2] - Southwest Futures indicates that the fundamental support for caustic soda is limited, with a generally loose supply-demand balance and regional price adjustments [3] - Ruida Futures predicts a short-term oscillating trend for caustic soda, noting a decrease in production capacity utilization and mixed demand from downstream industries [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda showed a significant fluctuation, with the main contract opening at 2293.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of approximately 3.7% during the day, reaching a low of 2262.0 CNY/ton [1] - As of June 12, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises was reported at 40.53 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.07% and a year-on-year increase of 6.11% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda sample enterprises was 80.9%, showing a decrease of 2.5% compared to the previous week, with notable declines in regions such as North China and South China [1] Group 2 - Market outlook indicates that the supply of caustic soda continues to exceed demand, leading to expectations of weak price fluctuations in the short term [2] - Recent price drops in caustic soda are attributed to weaker spot market conditions and anticipated deterioration in market dynamics post-July, compounded by electricity cost impacts [2] - Despite recent price adjustments by certain companies, the overall pressure in the spot market appears manageable for June, with ongoing maintenance expected to influence future supply [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda saw significant gains, with the main contract opening at 2435.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2481.0 CNY, marking a 2.14% increase [1] - Weekly production of caustic soda from sample enterprises was approximately 789,800 tons, reflecting a 0.28% decrease week-on-week and a 1.52% decrease year-on-year [1] - Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, although it remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The caustic soda operating rate was reported at 82.1%, down 0.2% from the previous week [2] - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong dropped by 250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66.67% compared to earlier periods [2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory, overall stock levels remain high, with limited increases in downstream delivery volumes [2] Group 3 - The overall supply of caustic soda remains sufficient, with limited demand growth, leading to a weak market outlook [1][2] - Key future considerations include the delivery volume from Weiqiao, inventory reduction, and the impact of aluminum production and exports [1] - The chlor-alkali industry is facing thin profit margins due to declining prices, necessitating caution regarding potential reductions in production [2]