方正中期期货指出，供需未有明显改善，烧碱处于震荡筑底阶段，考虑到企业盈利偏低，下方调整空间 受限，关注2100-2130附近支撑，由于行情存在反复，操作上可考虑情绪释放后的企稳轻仓试多机会， 压力位关注2300-2320附近。期权方面，企稳后考虑卖出2603合约行权价在2120下方的虚值看跌期权。 1月9日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报2215.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，烧碱主力最高触及2215.0元，下方探低2177.0元，跌幅达2.28%。 目前来看，烧碱行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于烧碱后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 银河期货分析称，供应端，此前降负的氯碱装置部分恢复生产，市场供应充足。需求端，氧化铝行业存 量产能以稳产为主、检修增多，新产能逐步投料投产，刚需有望小幅回升。而粘胶短纤、印染等非铝下 游开工率季节性下滑，表现疲弱。短期烧碱供应过剩格局未改，价格或延续弱势震荡。短期商品情绪好 转，建议不要逆情绪操作，观望逢高空。 东证期货表示，后市来看，烧碱供需短期暂无好转预期，盘面预计偏弱震荡为主。当前由于液氯价格高 位，氯碱企业仍有 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 高库存下的负反馈与减产博弈 ---2026 年烧碱期货年度行情展望 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2026 年烧碱市场的核心矛盾将围绕 "高供应、高库存" 与 "氧化铝低利润导致产业链负反馈" 之间展开。 在此背景下，市场难以出现趋势性牛市，全年价格中枢将承压，大概率在 "现金流成本线"与"下游阶段性补库" 构成的 宽幅区间内震荡运行。然而，这并非意味着市场缺乏机会。最大的价格弹性和不确定性将来自氯碱企业的超预期减产。因此， 2026 年烧碱的市场主线将是 "常态承压"与"脉冲反弹"的交织。重点跟踪高频库存数据、氧化铝投产节奏及产业利润的 边际变化。 我们的逻辑：1、2026 年国内烧碱国内终端需求增量有限，出口市场增量仍将较为突出。要重点关注氧化铝新产能投放带来 的烧碱区域内短期供需错配和氧化铝减产导致的刚需和囤货下滑。2、烧碱低利润格局将使得明年检修可能超预期，但大的 供应减产矛盾或来自于 PVC 导致烧碱的被动减产。3、2026 年烧碱交割规则面临修改，交割品升贴水和交割区 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is mostly in the red, with the main contract opening at 2361.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 1.53% [1] - As of October 30, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises reached 442,600 tons, an increase of 6.84% month-on-month and 52.42% year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for caustic soda has slightly decreased due to recent maintenance and the restart of some previously halted production units [2] Group 2 - Newhu Futures indicates that the supply of caustic soda remains stable due to high operating rates and the pressure on downstream aluminum oxide profits, leading to limited room for further production increases [3] - Zhongyuan Futures notes that the short-term price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is expected to decline, as the current high operating rates at caustic soda plants are increasing supply while downstream demand is constrained [3] - Overall market expectations for caustic soda are weak, with the 2601 contract under pressure and attention on lower support levels [3]

1. Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Written Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoint - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, caustic soda futures declined significantly due to the overall weakness of the chemical sector. During the holiday, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market decreased, and the trading volume fluctuated slightly. The market in other regions was also weak. Future market trends depend on the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory of chlor-alkali plants [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market 4.1.1 Contract Market - On October 9, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, opened lower and continued to decline. The closing price was 2,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton or 2.58% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 117,000 lots to 291,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 18,857 lots to 103,000 lots [2] 4.1.2 Variety Price - Affected by the sluggish sentiment in the chemical market, all 12 caustic soda futures contracts declined. The near-month contract SH510 fell by more than 2.5%. The total open interest of the variety was 188,300 lots, an increase of 23,538 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 18,857 lots, and the capital inflow was 236 million yuan [4] 4.1.3 Related Market - The put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed better than the call options, with a significant increase in put option prices [6] - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong had minor adjustments of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas, while most areas remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong, central-eastern Shandong, and northern Shandong were 800 - 850 yuan/ton, 760 - 800 yuan/ton, and 780 - 850 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central-eastern Shandong was 1,270 - 1,330 yuan/ton [7][8] 4.2 Influencing Factors 4.2.1 Industry News - On the first working day around the National Day, the price of liquid chlorine from Xinfa in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton [9] - In October, the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by alumina enterprises in Xiaoyi, Shanxi decreased by 200 yuan/ton [10] 4.2.2 Technical Analysis - The caustic soda futures closed with a long negative line today, and the price is approaching the previous low. The MACD indicator has further weakened [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - During the week of September 15 - 19, 2025, the caustic soda futures price stopped falling and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.16%. Next week, as the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the operating rate is expected to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price rebounded this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH101) rose 81 yuan/ton to 2641 yuan/ton, a 3.16% increase. The highest price was 2657 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2548 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 114,000 lots, a decrease of 4,712 lots from last week. The trading volume increased by 316,000 lots to 1.852 million lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Except for the near - month SH510 contract, which declined, other caustic soda futures contracts generally rose this week, and the open interest of the main contract SH601 decreased [4]. - **Related Market**: The trading volume of caustic soda 01 contract options increased compared to last week, with call options performing stronger than put options. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2320 - 2680 point range [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped 70 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.05%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price rebounded while the spot price declined, and the basis turned negative, reaching - 141 yuan/ton as of Friday [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: As of September 18, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.9%, a 1.5% decrease from last week. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 378,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.02% increase from last week and an 18.22% increase year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 20.15%, a 0.75% increase from last week [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily price of the main caustic soda contract SH601 gradually increased, and the trading volume increased compared to last week [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - This week, the caustic soda futures price strengthened, and the open interest of the main contract decreased. The alumina operating rate remained at 84.0%. The non - aluminum demand showed that the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.52%, a 1.75% increase from last week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, the same as last week. Next week, as the previously maintained devices resume operation, the supply is expected to increase. Considering the high inventory and sufficient supply in Shandong before the National Day holiday, the spot price may continue to be weak. Future market trends need to focus on the purchasing volume of the main downstream and device fluctuations [14].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a mixed performance, with prices showing a downward trend and various institutions providing differing outlooks on future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2660.0 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 2674.0 CNY and a minimum of 2619.0 CNY, resulting in a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - The overall market performance for caustic soda is characterized by weak trading conditions and a downward trend [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Nanhua Futures indicates that the near-term spot market remains relatively strong without significant price drops, while downstream alumina plants are increasing delivery volumes but maintaining stable prices [1]. - Guoyuan Futures notes that there are expectations of maintenance on the supply side, which could lead to marginal improvements in the fundamentals, although current cost support remains weak [1]. - Newhu Futures highlights that while some maintenance has concluded, there are still plans for further maintenance, leading to stable overall operations [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Nanhua Futures suggests that future price movements will depend on the rhythm of the spot market, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm for downstream stocking [1]. - Newhu Futures anticipates that caustic soda prices may maintain a strong position in the short term due to replenishment demand as the peak season approaches, although there may be limitations on price increases later in September and October [2].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the fluctuating performance of caustic soda futures, with a current price of 2454.0 yuan, reflecting a 1.49% increase, while various institutions provide differing outlooks on future trends [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - Caustic soda futures showed a strong fluctuation, reaching a peak of 2456.0 yuan during trading [1] - The main contract for caustic soda is currently priced at 2454.0 yuan, with a 1.49% increase noted [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that the caustic soda September contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with support expected around the 2380 yuan level [2] - Southwest Futures indicates that the fundamental support for caustic soda is limited, with a generally loose supply-demand balance and regional price adjustments [3] - Ruida Futures predicts a short-term oscillating trend for caustic soda, noting a decrease in production capacity utilization and mixed demand from downstream industries [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda showed a significant fluctuation, with the main contract opening at 2293.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of approximately 3.7% during the day, reaching a low of 2262.0 CNY/ton [1] - As of June 12, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises was reported at 40.53 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.07% and a year-on-year increase of 6.11% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda sample enterprises was 80.9%, showing a decrease of 2.5% compared to the previous week, with notable declines in regions such as North China and South China [1] Group 2 - Market outlook indicates that the supply of caustic soda continues to exceed demand, leading to expectations of weak price fluctuations in the short term [2] - Recent price drops in caustic soda are attributed to weaker spot market conditions and anticipated deterioration in market dynamics post-July, compounded by electricity cost impacts [2] - Despite recent price adjustments by certain companies, the overall pressure in the spot market appears manageable for June, with ongoing maintenance expected to influence future supply [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda saw significant gains, with the main contract opening at 2435.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2481.0 CNY, marking a 2.14% increase [1] - Weekly production of caustic soda from sample enterprises was approximately 789,800 tons, reflecting a 0.28% decrease week-on-week and a 1.52% decrease year-on-year [1] - Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, although it remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The caustic soda operating rate was reported at 82.1%, down 0.2% from the previous week [2] - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong dropped by 250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66.67% compared to earlier periods [2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory, overall stock levels remain high, with limited increases in downstream delivery volumes [2] Group 3 - The overall supply of caustic soda remains sufficient, with limited demand growth, leading to a weak market outlook [1][2] - Key future considerations include the delivery volume from Weiqiao, inventory reduction, and the impact of aluminum production and exports [1] - The chlor-alkali industry is facing thin profit margins due to declining prices, necessitating caution regarding potential reductions in production [2]