Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is mostly in the red, with the main contract opening at 2361.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 1.53% [1] - As of October 30, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises reached 442,600 tons, an increase of 6.84% month-on-month and 52.42% year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for caustic soda has slightly decreased due to recent maintenance and the restart of some previously halted production units [2] Group 2 - Newhu Futures indicates that the supply of caustic soda remains stable due to high operating rates and the pressure on downstream aluminum oxide profits, leading to limited room for further production increases [3] - Zhongyuan Futures notes that the short-term price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is expected to decline, as the current high operating rates at caustic soda plants are increasing supply while downstream demand is constrained [3] - Overall market expectations for caustic soda are weak, with the 2601 contract under pressure and attention on lower support levels [3]

1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251009）烧碱主力合约烧碱 2601 低开低走，价格重 心继续下行。收盘价 2450 元/吨,较上交易日结算价下跌 65 元/ 吨，跌幅 2.58%。成交量较上日增加 11.7 万手，全日成交量为 29.1 万手，持仓量为 10.3 万手，较上日增加 18857 手。 数据来源:国金期货行 成文日期：20251009 报告周期:日度 研究品种:烧碱 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 烧碱期货日报 1.2 品种价格 烧碱期货价格今日受化工市场情绪低迷影响，12 个合约全线下 行, 近月合约 SH510 跌幅超 2.5%。品种持仓量 18.83 万手,较上 一交易日增加 23538 手，其中活跃合约烧碱 2601，持仓量增加 18857 手，资金入 2.36 亿。 表 1：烧碱期货日行情表 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 成新 | 现手 | 买价 | 交价 | 买豆 ...

本周烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,截至本周五收盘,主力合约烧碱 2601 (SH101) 周度上涨 81 元/吨,收盘至 2641 元/吨,涨幅为 3.16%，最高价 2657 元/吨，最低价 2548 元/吨，持仓 11.4 万手, 较上周减少 4712 手。成交量较上周增加 31.6 万手至 185.2 万手。 图 1:烧碱主连日 K 线 1.2 品种行情 成文日期：20250921 报告周期:周度 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 烧碱期货周报： 延续下行 核心观点： 当周 (20250915-0919) 烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,周涨幅 3.16%。下周随着检修装置逐渐恢复,预计开工率将有所上升。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 从烧碱期货周度行情来看,除近月 SH510 合约下跌外,其他合 约整体上行，主力合约 SH601 持仓量有所减少。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 表 1: 烧碱期货行情表(20250915-20250919) | ...

9月3日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报2660.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，烧碱主力最高触及2674.0元，下方探低2619.0元，跌幅达2.09%附近。 国元期货表示，后期烧碱供应端存在检修预期，基本面有望边际改善。然而，当前成本支撑依然偏弱， 期货价格仍处于相对高位，下游对高价货源的接受度较低，存在一定抵触情绪。多空因素交织之下，预 计烧碱期货价格大概率延续高位震荡格局。 新湖期货指出，上旬部分装置检修结束，而中下旬仍有一定检修计划，开工总体将保持稳定。液氯供应 相对宽松，下游接货总体一般，价格重新回到低位。氧化铝维持盈利，企业有意愿保持高负荷，产量小 幅增长。非铝下游方面，纺织印染开工整体回升，粘胶短纤明显恢复，对化纤用碱需求边际改善形成支 撑。中下旬受下游氧化铝、粘胶短纤阶段性补货，以及部分地区装置检修，库存持续回落。预期短期， 9月中上旬烧碱维持区间震荡偏强，或先强势之后保持稳定，下游旺季临近带来补库需求，库存压力缓 解，氧化铝高位开工，共同支撑烧碱价格。中期，9月下旬至10月若金九银十补库但幅度有限，同时装 置检量下降、开工回升，则价格高位受阻，或将小幅回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the fluctuating performance of caustic soda futures, with a current price of 2454.0 yuan, reflecting a 1.49% increase, while various institutions provide differing outlooks on future trends [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - Caustic soda futures showed a strong fluctuation, reaching a peak of 2456.0 yuan during trading [1] - The main contract for caustic soda is currently priced at 2454.0 yuan, with a 1.49% increase noted [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that the caustic soda September contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with support expected around the 2380 yuan level [2] - Southwest Futures indicates that the fundamental support for caustic soda is limited, with a generally loose supply-demand balance and regional price adjustments [3] - Ruida Futures predicts a short-term oscillating trend for caustic soda, noting a decrease in production capacity utilization and mixed demand from downstream industries [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda showed a significant fluctuation, with the main contract opening at 2293.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of approximately 3.7% during the day, reaching a low of 2262.0 CNY/ton [1] - As of June 12, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises was reported at 40.53 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.07% and a year-on-year increase of 6.11% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda sample enterprises was 80.9%, showing a decrease of 2.5% compared to the previous week, with notable declines in regions such as North China and South China [1] Group 2 - Market outlook indicates that the supply of caustic soda continues to exceed demand, leading to expectations of weak price fluctuations in the short term [2] - Recent price drops in caustic soda are attributed to weaker spot market conditions and anticipated deterioration in market dynamics post-July, compounded by electricity cost impacts [2] - Despite recent price adjustments by certain companies, the overall pressure in the spot market appears manageable for June, with ongoing maintenance expected to influence future supply [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda saw significant gains, with the main contract opening at 2435.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2481.0 CNY, marking a 2.14% increase [1] - Weekly production of caustic soda from sample enterprises was approximately 789,800 tons, reflecting a 0.28% decrease week-on-week and a 1.52% decrease year-on-year [1] - Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, although it remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The caustic soda operating rate was reported at 82.1%, down 0.2% from the previous week [2] - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong dropped by 250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66.67% compared to earlier periods [2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory, overall stock levels remain high, with limited increases in downstream delivery volumes [2] Group 3 - The overall supply of caustic soda remains sufficient, with limited demand growth, leading to a weak market outlook [1][2] - Key future considerations include the delivery volume from Weiqiao, inventory reduction, and the impact of aluminum production and exports [1] - The chlor-alkali industry is facing thin profit margins due to declining prices, necessitating caution regarding potential reductions in production [2]