本周烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,截至本周五收盘,主力合约烧碱 2601 (SH101) 周度上涨 81 元/吨,收盘至 2641 元/吨,涨幅为 3.16%，最高价 2657 元/吨，最低价 2548 元/吨，持仓 11.4 万手, 较上周减少 4712 手。成交量较上周增加 31.6 万手至 185.2 万手。 图 1:烧碱主连日 K 线 1.2 品种行情 成文日期：20250921 报告周期:周度 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 烧碱期货周报： 延续下行 核心观点： 当周 (20250915-0919) 烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,周涨幅 3.16%。下周随着检修装置逐渐恢复,预计开工率将有所上升。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 从烧碱期货周度行情来看,除近月 SH510 合约下跌外,其他合 约整体上行，主力合约 SH601 持仓量有所减少。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 表 1: 烧碱期货行情表(20250915-20250919) | ...

9月3日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报2660.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，烧碱主力最高触及2674.0元，下方探低2619.0元，跌幅达2.09%附近。 国元期货表示，后期烧碱供应端存在检修预期，基本面有望边际改善。然而，当前成本支撑依然偏弱， 期货价格仍处于相对高位，下游对高价货源的接受度较低，存在一定抵触情绪。多空因素交织之下，预 计烧碱期货价格大概率延续高位震荡格局。 新湖期货指出，上旬部分装置检修结束，而中下旬仍有一定检修计划，开工总体将保持稳定。液氯供应 相对宽松，下游接货总体一般，价格重新回到低位。氧化铝维持盈利，企业有意愿保持高负荷，产量小 幅增长。非铝下游方面，纺织印染开工整体回升，粘胶短纤明显恢复，对化纤用碱需求边际改善形成支 撑。中下旬受下游氧化铝、粘胶短纤阶段性补货，以及部分地区装置检修，库存持续回落。预期短期， 9月中上旬烧碱维持区间震荡偏强，或先强势之后保持稳定，下游旺季临近带来补库需求，库存压力缓 解，氧化铝高位开工，共同支撑烧碱价格。中期，9月下旬至10月若金九银十补库但幅度有限，同时装 置检量下降、开工回升，则价格高位受阻，或将小幅回 ...

宁证期货：预计烧碱09合约短期震荡运行 7月9日盘中，烧碱期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至2456.0元。截止发稿，烧碱主力合约报2454.0 元，涨幅1.49%。 烧碱期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 宁证期货 预计烧碱09合约短期震荡运行 西南期货 烧碱基本面支撑有限 瑞达期货（002961） 烧碱短期预计震荡走势 目前烧碱装置开工高位，本周预期开工小幅提升，企业库存下降，下游氧化铝部分企业复产提产仍较为 谨慎，新投产量变现尚需时间，非铝下游行业需求下降。山东区域液氯企业液氯库存仍偏高，企业开工 下降，主力下游企业采购液碱价格上调。预计烧碱09合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2380一线，建议观望 或回调短线做多。 西南期货：烧碱基本面支撑有限 整体供需仍然偏宽松，区域化差异明显。主流地区多数下调价格，基差收窄，走货情况略好转；尽管短 期内受会议精神指引市场多头情绪发酵，但基本面支撑有限情况下，预计持续性一般。 瑞达期货：烧碱短期预计震荡走势 供应端，上周受检修装置增加影响，各地区产能利用率以降为主，全国平均利用率环比-2.0%至80.5%。 需求端，上周氧化铝开工率+0 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda showed a significant fluctuation, with the main contract opening at 2293.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of approximately 3.7% during the day, reaching a low of 2262.0 CNY/ton [1] - As of June 12, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises was reported at 40.53 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.07% and a year-on-year increase of 6.11% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda sample enterprises was 80.9%, showing a decrease of 2.5% compared to the previous week, with notable declines in regions such as North China and South China [1] Group 2 - Market outlook indicates that the supply of caustic soda continues to exceed demand, leading to expectations of weak price fluctuations in the short term [2] - Recent price drops in caustic soda are attributed to weaker spot market conditions and anticipated deterioration in market dynamics post-July, compounded by electricity cost impacts [2] - Despite recent price adjustments by certain companies, the overall pressure in the spot market appears manageable for June, with ongoing maintenance expected to influence future supply [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda saw significant gains, with the main contract opening at 2435.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2481.0 CNY, marking a 2.14% increase [1] - Weekly production of caustic soda from sample enterprises was approximately 789,800 tons, reflecting a 0.28% decrease week-on-week and a 1.52% decrease year-on-year [1] - Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons, although it remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The caustic soda operating rate was reported at 82.1%, down 0.2% from the previous week [2] - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong dropped by 250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66.67% compared to earlier periods [2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory, overall stock levels remain high, with limited increases in downstream delivery volumes [2] Group 3 - The overall supply of caustic soda remains sufficient, with limited demand growth, leading to a weak market outlook [1][2] - Key future considerations include the delivery volume from Weiqiao, inventory reduction, and the impact of aluminum production and exports [1] - The chlor-alkali industry is facing thin profit margins due to declining prices, necessitating caution regarding potential reductions in production [2]