焦炭期货市场分析
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大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260312
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 01:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views 2.1. Daily Views on Coking Coal - The supply in the coking coal market is continuously in a loose state, with the production of main - producing area coal mines having returned to normal levels. The trading activity in the market has increased after the recent rapid rise in the futures market, but some quotes have followed the adjustment as the market fluctuates. The downstream demand is unstable, and the downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain a rational attitude towards raw material demand and procurement, mainly purchasing on - demand. The acceptance of high - priced coal by coking and steel enterprises is not high, and some coal types with relatively high prices continue to make up for the decline. It is expected that the coking coal price will be weakly stable in the short term [3][4]. 2.2. Daily Views on Coke - After the first round of coke price reduction, the profit of coking enterprises has further shrunk, and the overall profit - concession space is limited. The coking enterprises' willingness to increase production is not high, and they mostly maintain normal production. The inventory accumulation pressure of coking enterprises still exists, and the coke supply continues to be in a loose situation. Although there are still positive expectations in the macro - aspect due to the important domestic meetings, considering the slowdown of the terminal finished product inventory removal speed, the good performance of steel mills' raw material inventory, and the slow decline of raw coal prices, the cost support of coke is weakened. It is expected that coke will remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price - **Coking Coal**: On March 11 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with prices ranging from 1020 to 1650. For example, the price of Russian main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port is 1330, and the price of Australian main coking coal Gongyela at Caofeidian Port is 1650 [10]. - **Coke**: On March 11 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of different grades of coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia at different ports range from 1370 to 1885. For example, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port is 1470, and the price of first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port (dry - quenched) is 1670 [11]. 3.2. Inventory - **Coking Coal**: The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 tons, including 820 tons in steel mills, 258 tons in ports, and 893 tons in independent coking enterprises, a decrease of 243 tons compared with last week [3]. - **Coke**: The total sample inventory of coke is 944 tons, including 689 tons in steel mills, 199 tons in ports, and 56 tons in independent coking enterprises, a decrease of 3 tons compared with last week [7]. 3.3. Specific Inventory Changes - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, remaining the same as last week; the coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons compared with last week [21]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons compared with last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons compared with last week [30]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [6]. - **Coke** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The squeeze on steel mills' profit space and the partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9].
大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260304
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 01:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **For Coking Coal**: Although the overall start - up of coking enterprises has recovered, they still face the pressure of inventory accumulation and falling coke prices, and maintain a cautious attitude towards coking coal procurement. With an important meeting approaching and downstream production restrictions, the release of coking coal demand is limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [3]. - **For Coke**: Affected by the off - season market and profit, steel mills' enthusiasm for coke procurement has declined, mainly on a demand - based basis, leading to inventory accumulation in some coking enterprises. After the festival, supply has recovered faster than demand, the contradiction between supply and demand of coke has become prominent, and the cost - side support for coke has gradually weakened. The market expectation of price reduction has further increased. It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [8]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines in production areas are gradually resuming production, and coking coal supply is increasing. However, coking and steel enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy, mainly purchasing coking coal as needed. After the festival, the market trading atmosphere is somewhat cold, and the trading sentiment is also cautious. The online auction market performs averagely, and the non - sale rate of some coal types has increased, with the transaction price continuing to decline from the pre - festival high [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 53, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 820,000 tons, port inventory is 2.58 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 8.93 million tons. The total sample inventory is 19.71 million tons, a decrease of 2.43 million tons compared with last week [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [4]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force of coking coal is net long, and the long position increases [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Iron and steel production increases, and supply is difficult to increase [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Coking and steel enterprises slow down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [6]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the prices of some raw coal types have fluctuated downward, the cost of coking coal for coking enterprises has decreased, and profits have been repaired. The overall start - up level is okay, but affected by the decline in downstream procurement enthusiasm, coking enterprises face certain inventory - reduction pressure. At the same time, as the price of the coking coal auction market has declined, the support of the raw material end for the coke spot price has weakened [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 74, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 689,000 tons, port inventory is 199,000 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 56,000 tons. The total sample inventory is 944,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with last week [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force of coke is net long, and the long position decreases [8]. - **Positive Factors**: Iron and steel production increases, and the blast furnace start - up rate rises simultaneously [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit space of steel mills is squeezed, and the restocking demand has been partially overdrawn [10]. Inventory Details - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.58 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 8.93 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 56,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared with last week [26]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 820,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 689,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons compared with last week [31].
大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260302
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 01:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is steadily increasing as state - owned and private coal mines have resumed production. However, downstream coke enterprises' procurement rhythm has not kept up, with weak procurement enthusiasm due to existing inventories. The spot market is sluggish, and prices are under pressure. The overall inventory has decreased, but the price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: Coke enterprises' average profit per ton has returned to near the break - even point, and most maintain normal production. But due to some steel mills controlling arrivals and speculators leaving the market, the inventory in coke enterprises has increased. With the possible decline of coking coal prices and steel mills' pursuit of cost reduction, the cost support for coke is weakening, and the price is also expected to be weakly stable in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on February 28, 2026, including different varieties and ports, such as the price of Russian K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Jingtang Port is 1320 [9]. Coking Coal Spread No specific information about coking coal spread is provided. Coke Spread No specific information about coke spread is provided. Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons from last week [20]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons from last week [29]. Coke Oven Capacity Utilization No specific information about coke oven capacity utilization is provided. Average Profit per Ton of Coke No specific information about average profit per ton of coke is provided. Daily Coke Production No specific information about daily coke production is provided. Monthly Coke Production No specific information about monthly coke production is provided. Blast Furnace Operating Rate No specific information about blast furnace operating rate is provided. Hot Metal Production No specific information about hot metal production is provided.
大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20251205
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of coking coal remains tight, but there is a certain shipment pressure on coal mines, and the market sentiment continues to cool down. It is expected that the coking coal price may run weakly in the short term [2]. - After the first - round price cut of coke, the supply has increased significantly. However, affected by factors such as the wait - and - see attitude of traders and the weakening of steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm, the coke market is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Coking Coal - Fundamental: The resumption of production of coal mines is slow, supply is limited, but there are shipment problems, and the prices of many coal enterprises have been lowered [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1190, basis is 6, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, 21 tons less than last week [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - Main position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Coking enterprises and steel mills have poor profits, and the coking coal price has a downward space [2]. 3.1.2 Coke - Fundamental: After the first - round price cut, coke supply has increased, but some coking enterprises have inventory pressure [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 1610, basis is - 41.5, and the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, 1 ton less than last week [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [5]. - Main position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - Expectation: Coke production is stable with a slight increase, but steel mills' demand is decreasing, and the cost support is weakening [5]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices 3.2.1 Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production, difficult supply increase [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [4]. 3.2.2 Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production, synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial overdraft of replenishment demand [7]. 3.3 Inventory Data - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, 0.1 tons less than last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, 1 ton more than last week [17]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, 69.2 tons less than last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, 3.5 tons more than last week [21]. - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, 4.3 tons more than last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, 13.3 tons less than last week [26]. 3.4 Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [39]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].
瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 08:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 21, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1147.0, down 1.50%. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On August 21, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1664.0, down 0.95%. In the spot market, the seventh round of price increase has started. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1147.00 yuan/ton, down 15.50 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1664.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 899361.00 lots, up 450.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 47951.00 lots, down 1572.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 112662.00 lots, down 1543.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5111.00 lots, up 165.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 59.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 936.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main - contract basis was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; J main - contract basis was 56.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 19th local time that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [2]. - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the daily output of clean coal was 25.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 294.8 million tons, down 2.2 million tons [2].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-5-28)-20250528
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal remains loose, with prices continuing to decline. The downstream procurement pace has slowed down due to the second round of coke price cuts, and new orders for mines have decreased. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak. There are factors like rising pig iron production and limited supply growth as positives, while slow procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negatives [2][5]. - **For Coke**: As the price of raw coal continues to fall, the cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased, and the production level remains high. However, the poor trading in the finished product market and the decline in steel prices have led to reduced demand from steel mills, and there is still an intention to lower prices. It is expected that coke will remain weakly stable in the short term. Positive factors include rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rate, while squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn restocking demand are negatives [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Coking Coal**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and brands at ports in Hebei and Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged, and some varieties being out of stock [11]. - **Coke**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke showed a general downward trend, with some prices decreasing by 20 yuan, while a few showed different changes [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory was 324.8 tons, a decrease of 12.6 tons from last week; coke port inventory was 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory was 819.8 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons from last week; coke inventory was 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory was 782.5 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from last week; coke inventory was 666.4 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week [28]. Production - related Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [39]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [43].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-4-29)-20250429
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The report expects the short - term coking coal price to be weakly stable. Although the demand for raw materials from downstream enterprises remains due to high hot metal production, the current steel - coking game is obvious. Enterprises mainly consume inventory, purchase on a just - in - time basis, and are cautious about high - priced coal [2]. - **焦炭**: The report anticipates that the short - term coke price will remain stable. Coke production is increasing steadily, and the pre - holiday inventory demand of downstream steel mills has been released, but the macro - expectation is average, and the steel market fluctuates, so the market sentiment is still cautious [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **焦煤**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, and the total sample inventory has decreased, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is negative. Overall, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2]. - **焦炭**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the total sample inventory has increased, which is negative. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The price is expected to remain stable [5]. Factors Affecting Prices - **焦煤**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Negative factors are the slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **焦炭**: Positive factors are the increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate. Negative factors are the squeezed profit margins of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Prices - **焦煤**: On April 28, 2025, the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from Russia, the United States, and Australia are provided, with most prices showing no change [8]. - **焦炭**: On April 28, 2025, the port prices of metallurgical coke from different ports and regions are presented, with no price changes [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [26]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [37]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [41].