交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-4） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 6、预期：虽然焦企开工整体有所恢复，但整体仍面临库存累积和焦炭价格下行的压力，对焦煤的采购 同样保持谨慎态度，多保持刚需采购。加之重要会议即将到来，在下游限产行为下，焦煤需求释放受限， 预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳运行。 1、基本面：产地煤矿陆续复产，焦煤供应逐步增加。但需求端焦钢企业维持低库存策略，对焦煤按需 采购为主，节后市场交投氛围略显冷清，市场交易情绪亦偏谨慎，线上竞拍市场表现一般，部分煤种流 拍率有所上升，成交价格较节前高点继续下探；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1180， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-2） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地国有煤矿基本完成复产，民营煤矿也于近日陆续复工，供应呈现稳步回升态势。但下 游焦企采购节奏尚未同步跟进，当前焦企场内仍有适量库存，因此对原料煤的采购积极性较弱，加之贸 易环节表现不活跃，现货市场成交依旧疲软，多数煤矿暂未有新签订单成交，煤矿报价多承压灵活调整； 中性 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差106.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of coking coal remains tight, but there is a certain shipment pressure on coal mines, and the market sentiment continues to cool down. It is expected that the coking coal price may run weakly in the short term [2]. - After the first - round price cut of coke, the supply has increased significantly. However, affected by factors such as the wait - and - see attitude of traders and the weakening of steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm, the coke market is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Coking Coal - Fundamental: The resumption of production of coal mines is slow, supply is limited, but there are shipment problems, and the prices of many coal enterprises have been lowered [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1190, basis is 6, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, 21 tons less than last week [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - Main position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Coking enterprises and steel mills have poor profits, and the coking coal price has a downward space [2]. 3.1.2 Coke - Fundamental: After the first - round price cut, coke supply has increased, but some coking enterprises have inventory pressure [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 1610, basis is - 41.5, and the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, 1 ton less than last week [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [5]. - Main position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - Expectation: Coke production is stable with a slight increase, but steel mills' demand is decreasing, and the cost support is weakening [5]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices 3.2.1 Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production, difficult supply increase [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [4]. 3.2.2 Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production, synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial overdraft of replenishment demand [7]. 3.3 Inventory Data - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, 0.1 tons less than last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, 1 ton more than last week [17]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, 69.2 tons less than last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, 3.5 tons more than last week [21]. - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, 4.3 tons more than last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, 13.3 tons less than last week [26]. 3.4 Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [39]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 21, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1147.0, down 1.50%. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On August 21, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1664.0, down 0.95%. In the spot market, the seventh round of price increase has started. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1147.00 yuan/ton, down 15.50 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1664.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 899361.00 lots, up 450.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 47951.00 lots, down 1572.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 112662.00 lots, down 1543.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5111.00 lots, up 165.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 59.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 936.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main - contract basis was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; J main - contract basis was 56.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 19th local time that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [2]. - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the daily output of clean coal was 25.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 294.8 million tons, down 2.2 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal remains loose, with prices continuing to decline. The downstream procurement pace has slowed down due to the second round of coke price cuts, and new orders for mines have decreased. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak. There are factors like rising pig iron production and limited supply growth as positives, while slow procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negatives [2][5]. - **For Coke**: As the price of raw coal continues to fall, the cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased, and the production level remains high. However, the poor trading in the finished product market and the decline in steel prices have led to reduced demand from steel mills, and there is still an intention to lower prices. It is expected that coke will remain weakly stable in the short term. Positive factors include rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rate, while squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn restocking demand are negatives [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Coking Coal**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and brands at ports in Hebei and Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged, and some varieties being out of stock [11]. - **Coke**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke showed a general downward trend, with some prices decreasing by 20 yuan, while a few showed different changes [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory was 324.8 tons, a decrease of 12.6 tons from last week; coke port inventory was 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory was 819.8 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons from last week; coke inventory was 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory was 782.5 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from last week; coke inventory was 666.4 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week [28]. Production - related Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [39]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The report expects the short - term coking coal price to be weakly stable. Although the demand for raw materials from downstream enterprises remains due to high hot metal production, the current steel - coking game is obvious. Enterprises mainly consume inventory, purchase on a just - in - time basis, and are cautious about high - priced coal [2]. - **焦炭**: The report anticipates that the short - term coke price will remain stable. Coke production is increasing steadily, and the pre - holiday inventory demand of downstream steel mills has been released, but the macro - expectation is average, and the steel market fluctuates, so the market sentiment is still cautious [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **焦煤**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, and the total sample inventory has decreased, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is negative. Overall, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2]. - **焦炭**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the total sample inventory has increased, which is negative. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The price is expected to remain stable [5]. Factors Affecting Prices - **焦煤**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Negative factors are the slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **焦炭**: Positive factors are the increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate. Negative factors are the squeezed profit margins of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Prices - **焦煤**: On April 28, 2025, the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from Russia, the United States, and Australia are provided, with most prices showing no change [8]. - **焦炭**: On April 28, 2025, the port prices of metallurgical coke from different ports and regions are presented, with no price changes [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [26]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [37]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [41].