瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 焦煤市场周报 供应下降库存回升，盘面延续宽幅震荡 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量183.9万吨，环比减10.3万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产26.8万吨，环比减0.7万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1969.71万吨，环比增加53.60万吨，同比增加1.28%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1422，折盘面1202 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利9元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率56.28%，环比上周减少0.43个百分点，同比去年减少15.15个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量241.54万吨，环比上周减少0.27万吨，同比去年增加8.46万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1 ...

宁证期货指出，需求方面，焦企利润水平尚可，阅兵活动结束，焦化开工将逐步提升。但钢材市场震荡 偏弱，下游观望情绪浓厚，对原料煤多谨慎按需采购为主。综合来看，预计短期国内炼焦煤市场偏弱调 整运行。 新世纪期货分析称，基本面现实不断转弱，螺纹库存连续超季节性累库，焦煤矿山库存累积，下游新订 单持续走弱等。近期上游矿山仍在增产，且进口矿的量也在不断增加，焦煤总供应持续上行。需求端， 本周铁水日均产量预计减少3万吨左右，按照焦煤铁水生产比值粗略估算，周度减少焦煤需求10.5万吨 左右，焦煤需求来到二季度以来的新低。后续要突破前高需供应的持续减量引起现货市场缺货的情况发 生，短期黑色板块情绪明显降温，盘面以震荡偏弱为主。 华联期货表示，焦煤供应端仍有收缩预期，需求端铁水产量维持高位，对原料支撑较强，短期以震荡思 路看待。操作上焦煤2601合约区间操作，参考运行区间1050-1200。 9月5日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘红。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1095.0元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦煤主力最高触及1131.0元，下方探低1090.5元，涨幅达3.67%附近。 目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - and sentiment - related disturbances are decreasing. After the price correction, the coking coal futures price is expected to rise. The coking coal main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and repeated fluctuations in market sentiment [2][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [8]. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [8]. - The warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan is 1,230, and the equivalent futures price is 1,010 [8]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [8]. - The iron - making water production at the demand end remains high. The daily average iron - making water production is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons [8]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue stable - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The 800 - billion - yuan list of "two major" construction projects this year has been fully issued, and the central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued [9]. - Overseas, Trump has issued a military threat to Russia, and the US and Russia have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit. The US will impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [9]. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall inventory at the mine end is decreasing. The clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, with the inventory being moderately high [9]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - As of August 8, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 916,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 lots. The price difference between the January and September contracts of coking coal is 157.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 points [16]. - As of August 8, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 0 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The ratio of the September contracts of coke and coking coal is 1.35, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 points [22]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port is 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of August 8, the basis of coking coal is - 129.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 184 points [26]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines this week is 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%. The daily average output of raw coal is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons; the raw coal inventory is 476,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons; the daily average output of clean coal is 755,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 245,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons [30]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants this week is 36.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.19%. The daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 288,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons [30]. - From January to June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 14.04 million tons. In June 2025, China's coking coal output is 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [54]. - In 2024, China's coal imports are 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, setting a new record high, including a cumulative import of 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. In June, the total import of coking coal is 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.30%. From January to June, the cumulative import is 52.9007 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.26%, and the import growth rate has been negative year - on - year for 3 consecutive months [56]. 3.3.2 Mid - stream - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%. The daily output of coke is 520,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the coke inventory is 446,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,900 tons; the total coking coal inventory is 832,750 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,100 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 days [35]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [35]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports nationwide is 4.6305 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 308,900 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports nationwide is 2.7355 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,500 tons. The rapid price increase mode of coking coal is approaching an end, and the demand has slightly slowed down, with overall transactions mainly for rigid demand [39]. 3.3.3 Downstream - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [46]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 808,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,700 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.99 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pulverized coal injection is 412,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,200 tons; the available days of pulverized coal injection are 11.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 days [50].

| (1) 中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited | | 供应扰动不断,焦煤强势上涨 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员: 余奥 | 陶存群 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 | 从业资格号:F03100815 | 从业资格号: | | 授资咨询号:Z0019832 | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号:Z0021807 | 投资咨询号: | 今日双焦全面收涨，其中焦煤主力合约盘中触及涨停，JM2601收报1182.0元/吨。 2025/08/05 | 冉宇蒙 | | --- | | 从业资格号:F03144159 | | 授资咨询号:Z0022199 | 钟宏 从业资格号:F03118246 投资咨询号:Z0022727 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】 669 应急管理部8月4日发布消息: 《煤矿安全规程》已经2025年7月7日应急管理部第17次部务会议修订通过, 现予公布, 自2026 年2月1日起施行。据悉，新规在原有版本的基础上对安全规定内容 ...

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a downward trend, with coking coal futures showing a decline of 3.92% as of midday trading on July 1 [1] - Supply-side factors indicate that environmental inspections are nearing completion, leading to the gradual resumption of coal production in Shanxi, which may create a more relaxed market expectation for coking coal production [1] - Demand-side factors show that downstream industries are gradually restocking, with some premium coal types experiencing slight rebounds, while overall procurement remains demand-driven [1] Group 2 - Longjiang Futures notes that the supply-demand imbalance in the coking coal market has eased somewhat, but uncertainties remain due to policy disruptions on the supply side [2] - The market is expected to continue fluctuating in the short term, with a focus on monitoring the execution of environmental and safety regulations, the pace of imported coal arrivals, and the impact of steel mill profits on coking coal production [2]