Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Industry Overview - The focus is on the coking coal market, particularly in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia regions of China, with significant implications from Mongolian coal imports and domestic production dynamics [1][2][4][8][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Trends**: - Coking coal prices are currently strong, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal priced at approximately 1,540-1,550 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's Fengwei index price is stable at 1,270 CNY/ton [1][3]. - Recent auction prices for coking coal have surged, with prices exceeding market expectations by around 200 CNY/ton in some cases [2]. 2. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - There is a notable decrease in Mongolian coal supply, dropping from 700,000-1,000,000 tons per month to 127,000-128,000 tons, tightening the supply-demand balance [1][4]. - The reduction in Mongolian coal is expected to create a price increase potential of 100-200 CNY for coke, especially with winter storage needs [4]. 3. **Impact of Domestic Production**: - Coking coal production in major regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is not expected to increase significantly in Q4 due to environmental policies and safety inspections [1][8]. - Geological conditions are also limiting production capabilities in certain areas, such as Shanxi and Shandong [9]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook**: - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a gradual price increase due to stable demand from steel mills and a recovering economy [2][14]. - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, the trend is leaning towards improvement, with steel mill profits expected to rise [14][15]. 5. **Coke Price Limitations**: - The rise in coke prices may be constrained by weak performance in the finished steel market, particularly due to a downturn in the real estate sector affecting rebar prices [5][19]. - If demand or exports decline, steel mills may reduce production, exerting downward pressure on raw material prices [5]. 6. **Future Price Projections**: - Projections for Q4 indicate a potential price range for coking coal between 1,200 and 1,300 CNY, with a broader forecast for 2026 maintaining a range of 1,000 to 1,600 CNY [21][22]. 7. **Global Supply Chain Context**: - The global coking coal supply-demand balance is relatively stable, with China's economic recovery expected to drive overall demand and prices upward [20]. - The dynamics of international trade, particularly with countries like Australia and Mongolia, will continue to influence the market [20]. Additional Important Insights - The average mining depth in Shanxi exceeds 800 meters, which may impact production costs and feasibility [12]. - The calculation of coal resource lifespan is based on proven reserves and exploitable reserves, indicating that coking coal resources in China are not nearing depletion [10][11]. - The potential for steel mill production adjustments could lead to increased coking coal prices if high-profit products are prioritized [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coking coal market, highlighting the interplay between supply constraints, price dynamics, and broader economic factors.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation includes the upcoming 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the release of a price - order governance announcement, and a series of "Zhong Cai Wen" articles in People's Daily. Overseas, Israel has approved a Gaza cease - fire agreement. Supply decreased during the National Day due to mine maintenance, inventory has been rising for three weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the weekly K - line of coking coal is bearish. It is expected that the coking coal futures main contract price will fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, and the coke futures main contract will fluctuate between 1590 - 1730 [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - 523 coking coal mines had a daily average raw coal output of 183.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. 314 independent coal washing plants had a daily refined coal output of 26.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons. The total coking coal inventory was 1969.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.28%. The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 9 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 56.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.15 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 241.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.46 million tons [8]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic factors may provide short - term support. The demand in September was average, and it is expected that October will not be better. The crude steel output will continue to decline. Coal inventory is expected to rise seasonally, and coke profit has limited room for improvement. The coking coal futures main contract price is expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1220, and the coke futures main contract between 1590 - 1730 [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Market - As of October 10, the coking coal futures contract open interest was 809,100 lots, an increase of 63,000 lots compared to before the holiday. The coking coal 5 - 1 contract spread was 98.0, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 points. The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts was 200 lots, a week - on - week increase of 200 lots. The ratio of the January coke - coking coal futures contract was 1.44, unchanged from the previous week [15][19]. 2.2 Spot Market - As of October 9, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 10, the coking coal basis was 16.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 160.5 points [27]. 3. Industry Chain Situation 3.1 Production - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.6%. The daily average raw coal output was 183.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.15%. The daily refined coal output was 26.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons [31]. 3.2 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased by 53.60 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased by 69.15 million tons. The import coking coal inventory at 16 ports increased by 5.00 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.93 million tons [31][35][39][51]. 3.3 Upstream - In 2025, China's raw coal output in August was 39,049.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. The coking coal output in August was 3,696.86 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.60%. In 2024, China imported 540 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal decreased by 8% year - on - year [56][60].

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 3.67% [1] - The main coking coal futures contract opened at 1095.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1131.0 CNY and a low of 1090.5 CNY during the trading session [1] - New Century Futures indicates that the fundamentals are weakening, with rising inventories in both rebar and coking coal, and a decrease in new orders from downstream sectors [1] Group 2 - Hualian Futures suggests that while there is an expectation of supply contraction, the demand side remains strong due to high iron and steel production levels, leading to a short-term outlook of fluctuating prices [1] - Ningzheng Futures notes that coking enterprises are maintaining acceptable profit levels, and production is expected to gradually increase post-military parade, although the steel market remains weak with cautious procurement of raw coal [2] - Overall, the domestic coking coal market is anticipated to undergo a weak adjustment in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - and sentiment - related disturbances are decreasing. After the price correction, the coking coal futures price is expected to rise. The coking coal main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and repeated fluctuations in market sentiment [2][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons [8]. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [8]. - The warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan is 1,230, and the equivalent futures price is 1,010 [8]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [8]. - The iron - making water production at the demand end remains high. The daily average iron - making water production is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons [8]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue stable - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The 800 - billion - yuan list of "two major" construction projects this year has been fully issued, and the central budgetary investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued [9]. - Overseas, Trump has issued a military threat to Russia, and the US and Russia have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit. The US will impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [9]. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall inventory at the mine end is decreasing. The clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, with the inventory being moderately high [9]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - As of August 8, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 916,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 lots. The price difference between the January and September contracts of coking coal is 157.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 points [16]. - As of August 8, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 0 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The ratio of the September contracts of coke and coking coal is 1.35, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 points [22]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of August 7, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port is 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of August 8, the basis of coking coal is - 129.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 184 points [26]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines this week is 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%. The daily average output of raw coal is 1.883 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons; the raw coal inventory is 476,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons; the daily average output of clean coal is 755,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 245,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons [30]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants this week is 36.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.19%. The daily output of clean coal is 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons; the clean coal inventory is 288,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 tons [30]. - From January to June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size is 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 14.04 million tons. In June 2025, China's coking coal output is 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [54]. - In 2024, China's coal imports are 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, setting a new record high, including a cumulative import of 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. In June, the total import of coking coal is 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.30%. From January to June, the cumulative import is 52.9007 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.26%, and the import growth rate has been negative year - on - year for 3 consecutive months [56]. 3.3.2 Mid - stream - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%. The daily output of coke is 520,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the coke inventory is 446,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,900 tons; the total coking coal inventory is 832,750 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,100 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 days [35]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1.92772 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [35]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports nationwide is 4.6305 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 308,900 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports nationwide is 2.7355 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,500 tons. The rapid price increase mode of coking coal is approaching an end, and the demand has slightly slowed down, with overall transactions mainly for rigid demand [39]. 3.3.3 Downstream - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 86,200 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 63.21 percentage points [46]. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 808,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,700 tons; the available days of coking coal are 12.99 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pulverized coal injection is 412,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,200 tons; the available days of pulverized coal injection are 11.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 days [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term contradiction in the coking coal fundamentals is not prominent. With the influence of multiple positive news, market sentiment has recovered. The market trading will gradually return to the fundamental logic. Currently, coking coal supply has not fully recovered, and the short - term fundamentals still support prices. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [3] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Today, both coking coal and coke closed higher. The main coking coal contract hit the daily limit during the session, and JM2601 closed at 1,182.0 yuan/ton [1] Policy and Production Impact - The revised "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026, with more refined and standardized safety regulations, currently having no significant impact on actual coal mine production. The National Energy Administration is verifying coal mine over - production. Coal enterprises in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have received relevant notices. The over - production verification in Changzhi coal mines started last week, with little impact on local production for now, and the subsequent impact remains to be seen [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply: Main producing area coal mines generally maintain the previous production rhythm, and overall supply is slowly recovering. Import: The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, downstream and traders are more wait - and - see, and the spot market sentiment has cooled down. However, coal mines had many pre - sold orders before, and upstream coal mines are still destocking. It will take time for the increase in domestic supply and Mongolian coal imports to be reflected, and the upstream coal mine destocking cycle continues [2]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a downward trend, with coking coal futures showing a decline of 3.92% as of midday trading on July 1 [1] - Supply-side factors indicate that environmental inspections are nearing completion, leading to the gradual resumption of coal production in Shanxi, which may create a more relaxed market expectation for coking coal production [1] - Demand-side factors show that downstream industries are gradually restocking, with some premium coal types experiencing slight rebounds, while overall procurement remains demand-driven [1] Group 2 - Longjiang Futures notes that the supply-demand imbalance in the coking coal market has eased somewhat, but uncertainties remain due to policy disruptions on the supply side [2] - The market is expected to continue fluctuating in the short term, with a focus on monitoring the execution of environmental and safety regulations, the pace of imported coal arrivals, and the impact of steel mill profits on coking coal production [2]