煤炭 2025 年 08 月 17 日 动力煤有望越过 700 剑指 750 元，煤炭布局稳扎稳打 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动力煤有望修复第二目标 700 元， 煤炭布局稳扎稳打 —行业周报》- 2025.8.10 《煤价上涨即将修复央企长协，煤炭 布局稳扎稳打—行业周报》-2025.8.3 《煤炭基本面利多持续，拐点右侧布 局 进 行 时 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》- 2025.7.28 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：动力煤有望越过 700 元剑指 750 元 动力煤方面：动力煤价格持续反弹，截至 8 月 15 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 698 元/吨，今年上半年最低价格为 609 元，已累计上涨 14.61%。目前动力煤基本 面持续利多：从供给端来看，国内生产方面，主产区受查超产和降雨影响，叠加大 矿竞拍热情上涨，产地货源供应偏弱，截 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to recover to the second target of 700 yuan, with a steady layout in the coal sector [5][13] - The current price of thermal coal has rebounded to above the first target price of 670 yuan, which is the annual long-term contract price for central enterprises [5][13] - The report highlights that the fundamentals of thermal coal remain favorable, with supply constraints and high demand during the summer season [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached the right side of the turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity [5][13] - The current price has surpassed the first target and is expected to reach the second target of around 700 yuan [5][13] - Future expectations include a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan and a fourth target price of around 860 yuan [5][13] Key Indicators Overview - The coal index increased by 3.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.41 percentage points [8][26] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.12, and the PB ratio is 1.24, ranking low among all A-share industries [28] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 8, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 682 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 11.99% from the lowest price of 609 yuan earlier this year [4][21] - The operating rate of coal mines in the main production areas is at 80.1%, indicating a relatively low level for the year [4][21] - Port inventories have decreased by 25.6% from the highest level of 33.16 million tons earlier this year [4][21] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 yuan [4][22] - Coking coal futures have seen a significant rebound, increasing by 70.65% from 719 yuan in early June to the current price [4][22] - The report notes a strong expectation for coking coal prices, driven by supply tightening measures and demand from the steel industry [4][22]