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反内卷有望托抬煤价,煤炭核心价值将被重塑 | 投研报告
2025H1上市煤企销量下滑叠加售价回落,盈利能力下滑 2025H127家上市煤企(不含山西焦煤)合计煤炭产量为6.1亿吨,同比+2.5%;煤炭销量 为6.5亿吨,同比-5.4%。2025H128家上市煤企合计实现营业收入5384亿元,同比-18.1%;合 计实现归母净利润560亿元,同比-31.7%。2025H128家上市煤企毛利率加权平均值为 28.8%,同比-2.1pct;净利率加权平均值为13.3%,同比-2.6pct;ROE加权平均值为4.8%,同 比-2.5pct。 开源证券近日发布煤炭行业2025年中报综述:分煤种来看,2025H1秦港动力煤山西产 Q5500均价为676元/吨,同比-22.8%,其中2025Q2动力煤价格回落明显,Q2均价632元/吨, 环比-12.4%;2025H1京唐港主焦煤(山西产)均价为1379元/吨,同比-38.8%,其中2025Q2 主焦煤价格回落放缓,Q2均价1315元/吨,环比-8.8%。 以下为研究报告摘要: 2025H1煤炭价格呈下跌趋势,煤价中枢整体下移 分煤种来看,2025H1秦港动力煤山西产Q5500均价为676元/吨,同比-22.8%,其中 2025 ...
煤炭开采行业2025年中报综述:煤价筑底拖累2025H1业绩,现阶段煤价回升叠加板块低拥挤度,煤炭迎来底部配置机遇
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-10 05:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has reached a bottom, leading to a potential investment opportunity as prices rebound alongside low sector congestion [1][12] - The performance of the coal mining sector in the first half of 2025 has been negatively impacted by falling coal prices, with significant declines in revenue and profit for major coal companies [33][36] - Despite the challenges, the report suggests that the current market pessimism regarding coal prices has been largely priced in, indicating a potential for recovery [12] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of H1 2025 - In H1 2025, the coal supply-demand balance was loose, resulting in a decline in the average coal price [19][21] - The total revenue for 28 key coal companies was CNY 553.918 billion, down 17.8% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 31.5% to CNY 72.284 billion [33][36] - Coal production increased by 1.6% to 615 million tons, while sales volume decreased by 1.8% to 561 million tons [50] 2. Financial Performance - The average sales price of coal fell by 20% to CNY 480 per ton, while the average cost decreased by 9% to CNY 306 per ton, leading to a 33% drop in gross profit [5][8] - The average gross margin for the 28 coal companies was 36%, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Operating cash flow decreased by 27% to CNY 1,042.20 billion, with a slight increase in the average debt-to-asset ratio to 53.2% [9][12] 3. Market Dynamics - The coal price for Q2 2025 continued to decline, but signs of recovery were noted in Q3 due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [10][12] - The report highlights that the coal sector's low congestion levels and high dividend yields present a compelling case for bottom-fishing investments [12] 4. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and cash flow, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [12][14] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving supply-demand dynamics and potential policy impacts on the coal market [12][19]
动力煤修复剑指第三目标750元,煤炭布局稳扎稳打行业周报 | 投研报告
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the price of thermal coal has been rebounding, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing price reaching 704 RMB/ton as of August 22, marking a 15.6% increase from the lowest price of 609 RMB/ton in the first half of the year [1][2] - The supply side shows weakness due to production restrictions and rainfall in major coal-producing regions, with the operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 81.7%, which is still at a relatively low level for the year [1][2] - Port inventories have been declining, with the inventory in the Bohai Rim region at 23.274 million tons as of August 22, down 29.82% from the highest inventory of 33.163 million tons in the first half of the year [2] Group 2 - The demand side remains strong during the summer, with daily consumption at high levels, and the domestic methanol operating rate at 80.65%, which is among the highest in recent years [2] - Coking coal prices have also rebounded significantly, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1610 RMB/ton, up from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July, and coking coal futures rising from 719 RMB to 1162 RMB, a cumulative increase of 61.61% [2] - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are on the right side of the turning point, with expectations for further price recovery towards long-term contract prices [2] Group 3 - The report outlines four main investment lines in the coal sector, emphasizing the dual logic of cycles and dividends, with selected coal stocks expected to benefit from the current market conditions [3] - The first line focuses on cyclical logic with companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining, while the second line emphasizes dividend potential with companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [3] - The third line highlights diversified aluminum elasticity with companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment, and the fourth line focuses on growth logic with companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [3]
煤炭行业周报:动力煤有望越过700剑指750元,煤炭布局稳扎稳打-20250817
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 09:45
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are expected to surpass 700 yuan, aiming for 750 yuan, with a stable coal layout [4][13] - The current thermal coal price has rebounded to 698 yuan per ton as of August 15, 2025, up 14.61% from the lowest price of 609 yuan earlier this year [4][5] - The report highlights that the fundamentals for thermal coal remain positive, with supply constraints and high demand during the summer season [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Thermal Coal Market - As of August 15, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 698 yuan per ton, with a year-to-date increase of 14.61% [4] - The operating rate of coal mines in the main production areas (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) is at 80.8%, which is relatively low for the year [4] - Port inventories have decreased to 23.635 million tons, down 28.73% from the highest inventory of 33.163 million tons earlier this year [4] Coking Coal Market - As of August 15, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 yuan per ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 yuan in early July, representing a cumulative increase of 71.07% [4][5] - The report notes that the coking coal market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with supply tightening due to regulatory measures [4][5] Investment Logic - The report suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with thermal coal expected to recover to long-term contract prices [5][13] - The first target price for thermal coal is around 670 yuan, with expectations to reach 700 yuan and potentially 750 yuan in the future [5][13] - Coking coal prices are determined more by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main lines for investment in the coal sector: 1. Cycle logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yancoal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Energy and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: New集 Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][14]
煤炭行业周报:动力煤有望修复第二目标700元,煤炭布局稳扎稳打-20250810
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-10 09:27
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to recover to the second target of 700 yuan, with a steady layout in the coal sector [5][13] - The current price of thermal coal has rebounded to above the first target price of 670 yuan, which is the annual long-term contract price for central enterprises [5][13] - The report highlights that the fundamentals of thermal coal remain favorable, with supply constraints and high demand during the summer season [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached the right side of the turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity [5][13] - The current price has surpassed the first target and is expected to reach the second target of around 700 yuan [5][13] - Future expectations include a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan and a fourth target price of around 860 yuan [5][13] Key Indicators Overview - The coal index increased by 3.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.41 percentage points [8][26] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.12, and the PB ratio is 1.24, ranking low among all A-share industries [28] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 8, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 682 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 11.99% from the lowest price of 609 yuan earlier this year [4][21] - The operating rate of coal mines in the main production areas is at 80.1%, indicating a relatively low level for the year [4][21] - Port inventories have decreased by 25.6% from the highest level of 33.16 million tons earlier this year [4][21] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 yuan [4][22] - Coking coal futures have seen a significant rebound, increasing by 70.65% from 719 yuan in early June to the current price [4][22] - The report notes a strong expectation for coking coal prices, driven by supply tightening measures and demand from the steel industry [4][22]