研究早观点 2026 年 2 月 9 日 星期一 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,065.58 | -0.25 | | 深证成指 | | 13,906.73 | -0.33 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,643.60 | -0.57 | | 中小板指 | | 8,447.99 | 0.28 | | 创业板指 | | 3,236.46 | -0.73 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,422.41 | -0.71 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：行业事件点评：印尼矿商暂停现货出口，减产落 地超市场预期 【山证煤炭】兖矿能源（600188.SH）点评-印尼煤出口暂停催化海外 煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 【投资要点】 【山证煤炭】兖矿能源（600188.S ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the industry rating to "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government has proposed a significant reduction in coal production, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners, which is expected to exceed market expectations [2][3] - The production quota for 2026 is set at approximately 600 million tons, a substantial decrease from the actual production of 790 million tons in 2025, with core miners facing reductions of 40%-70% [2] - The suspension of spot exports is anticipated to create a supply gap in the global thermal coal market, benefiting international coal prices, particularly for low-calorific thermal coal, which is Indonesia's main export variety [3] Summary by Sections Industry Events - Indonesian miners have halted spot coal exports due to a government-imposed production cut, which has raised concerns about potential layoffs and mine closures [1] - The reduction in coal production quotas is expected to reshape trade patterns, with a quick recovery of exports being unlikely unless the government relaxes its production cut requirements [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that rising overseas coal prices could boost domestic coal price expectations, leading to an upgrade in the industry rating [3] - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Shanxi Coal International are expected to benefit from this situation [3]

印尼煤炭减产消息点评 供政策尚未退出,市场化交易的总量有限。如果印尼低卡煤 减量,动力煤市场重心会指高,但能否突破831的政策上沿, 自动力煤期货暂停,焦煤期货在2023年基准地转移到山西后, 参与者逐步从蒙煤贸易商,期现商扩展至山西地区交割库、 山西地区贸易商,甚至动力煤贸易商。同时焦炭限仓,关于 煤炭,从政策到期股联动,再期现联动的情绪化炒作,只能 全部宣泄与焦煤期货这一个品种。2025年炒作煤炭行业反内 卷,也是买消息卖现实的操作,政策对于煤价永远是红线。 数据来源:海关总署、印尼国家统计局、中国煤炭经济研究会、煤炭经济网、格林大华期货研究院整理 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 研究员：侯建 从业资格 F03126001 交易咨询：Z0023671 联系电话： (010)56711796 | | 中国进口印尼煤全口径 | | | | 印尼煤产量与出口 | 1. | 作为资源出口国,印尼原煤产量在2025年有所下降,出口量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 也同步回落。但参考过去几年印 ...