煤焦周度观点 ➢ 阅兵后国内上游产量迅速恢复，蒙煤甘其毛都和策克口岸维持高位通关量，现实供给边际近一周变化较小；但最近供给侧的干预 预期或在政策面消息的影响下表现得较为反复，造成了盘面价格的较大幅度波动。 ◆ 2、需求： Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ➢ 节前对于原料的补库操作已经开启，目前现货需求支撑相对偏强。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外降息如期宣布，盘面计价此前已较为充分，靴子落地后影响有限；国内宏观预期依然偏强，对黑色估值形成一定支撑。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 从现实基本面来看，供需边际双强，宏观层面亦有国内强预期支撑，短期估值或延续偏强震荡。 煤焦基本面数据变化 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：现实基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ◆ 1、供应： 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind 富宝资讯：、国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：Mysteel、iFind ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ➢ 节前对于原料的补库操作已经开启，目前现货需求支撑相对偏强。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 阅兵后国内上游产量迅速恢复，蒙煤甘其毛都和策克口岸维持高位通关量，现实供给边际近一周变化较小。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外降息如期宣布，盘面计价此前已较为充分，靴子落地后影响有限；国内宏观预期在中美元首通话后再次走强，对黑色估值形 成一定支撑。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 从基本面来看，供需边际双强，宏观层面亦有国内强预期支撑，短期估值或延续偏强震荡。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | FW原煤872.52（+11.45） | 独立焦化厂日均66.72（-0.04） | | | FW精煤450 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the supply at the uppermost end has marginally eased and there is some coking coal inventory accumulation in certain segments, the overall fundamental level of coking coal remains moderately tight. Coupled with the upward - repaired profit of coke, the relatively high output of downstream hot metal, and the relatively high - pitched macro - level expectations, the short - term deep decline space for coal - coke prices is limited [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal - Coke Weekly Outlook 3.1.1 Supply - The marginal decline in upstream raw coal production has narrowed. Fenwei's raw coal production decreased by 2310 tons week - on - week to 8.5664 million tons. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the traffic volume at the three major ports remains at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [3] 3.1.2 Demand - The downstream and speculative sectors continue to adopt a cautious attitude. This week, the online auction failure rate has further increased, and the quotes of some high - priced resources have been successively lowered. However, the hot metal output still remains at a relatively high level, and the coking profit has been repaired after six rounds of price increases [4] 3.1.3 Macro - News of additional anti - dumping duties on steel products (from Japan and South Korea) and tariffs (from the United States on steel and aluminum) has impacted the future downstream export demand expectations [5] 3.2 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.5664 million tons (- 2310 tons); independent coking plants' daily average 65,380 tons (+ 280 tons); FW clean coal 439,360 tons (+ 350 tons); steel mill coking plants' daily average 46,730 tons (- 70 tons) | | | Demand | Hot metal output 240,660 tons (+ 340 tons) | Hot metal output 240,660 tons (+ 340 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 301,000 tons; mine raw coal - 64,000 tons; mine clean coal + 120,000 tons; independent coking - 72,000 tons; independent coking - 110,000 tons; steel mills - 95,000 tons; steel mill coking - 29,000 tons; ports - 30,000 tons; ports - 219,000 tons; FW ports - 69,000 tons | | | Profit | Commodity coal 433 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton); coking enterprise average profit 20 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton) | | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1308; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1191 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1557 | [8] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Coking Coal Supply - **Weekly**: The output data of FW raw coal, 523 sample mines' daily average clean coal output, and FW clean coal output are presented, showing their trends from 2022 to 2025 [11][12][14] - **Monthly**: The monthly output data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 are presented [16] - **Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: The customs clearance volume data of Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three major ports from 2021 to 2025 are presented [18][20][21][23] 3.3.2 Coking Coal Inventory - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines decreased by 1690 tons week - on - week to 187,180 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 150 tons week - on - week to 111,890 tons [29] - **Ports**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 255,490 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 218,500 tons [31] - **Coking Plants**: The inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants are presented, including overall data and data by region and capacity [34][36][38] - **Steel Mills**: The inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their coking plants are presented, including overall data and data by region [39] 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Coke Supply - **Capacity Utilization** - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking plants, including overall data, data by capacity, and data by region, are presented [42] - **Steel Mills**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants from 2019 to 2025 is presented [44] - **Output** - **Coking Plants**: The daily output data of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises from 2019 to 2025 are presented [46] - **Steel Mills**: The daily output data of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants from 2019 to 2025 are presented [48] 3.4.2 Coke Inventory - **Coking Plants**: The inventory data of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants from 2019 to 2025 are presented [50] - **Steel Mills**: The inventory, average available days, and inventory by region of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants are presented [51][53][54] - **All - sample Aggregation**: The total coke inventory data from 2019 to 2025 are presented [56] 3.4.3 Coke Demand - The hot metal daily output data of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the coke supply - demand difference [58] 3.4.4 Coke Profit - The data of coking plant's ton - coke average profit, ton - coke futures (main - continuous contract) profit, and the prices of some types of metallurgical coke are presented [61][62] 3.5 Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.5.1 Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2509 and 2601 contracts from August 11 - 15, 2025, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [65] 3.5.2 Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2509 and 2601 contracts from August 11 - 15, 2025, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [67] 3.5.3 Coal - Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 are presented [71] 3.5.4 Coal - Coke Spot - The spot prices of some types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are presented [74] 3.5.5 Coal - Coke Basis - As of August 15, the basis of Mongolian coking coal is - 39 yuan/ton, and the basis of coke is - 172.5 yuan/ton [76]