煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年8月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：上游供给边际转松，但尚难扭转基本面整体走向 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 上游原煤产量边际降幅有所收窄，汾渭原煤产量周环比小幅下降2.31万吨至856.64万吨；进口蒙煤方面，三大口岸通车量仍在近 年同比高位。 ◆ 2、需求： ➢ 下游及投机环节延续谨慎态度，本周线上流拍率进一步抬升，部分高价资源报价陆续下调；但铁水产量依然维持相对偏高水平， 且焦化利润在六轮提涨落地后有所修复。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 钢材相关的反倾销税（日韩）和关税（美国针对钢铁和铝）加征消息冲击未来下游出口需求预期。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 虽然最上游供给端边际些许转松，且部分环节出现一定焦煤累库现象，但焦煤整体基本面的绝对水平依然中性偏紧，叠加焦炭 向上修复的利润和下游铁水偏高的产量，以及宏观层面较为高亢的预期，短期煤焦价格深跌空间有限。 Special report on Guotai Junan Fut ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, with the first round of coke price hikes initiated [3]. - Affected by position limits, the volatility of coal and coke prices may increase. The recent strong performance of coal and coke prices is related to market expectations and the contradiction of short - term supply - demand mismatch in the fundamentals. The transfer of cargo rights from top to bottom in the industrial chain is smooth, and the reshaping of coking coal valuation after the previous decline provides upward potential momentum. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of policy news, spot - futures behavior, and fundamentals on prices [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoints Supply - This week, some coal mines in the main production areas that were shut down or limited production due to factors such as working face replacement and maintenance resumed production, and the overall supply increased. The weekly output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 10.66 tons to 1236.27 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.74% to 86.01%. The overall customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal increased rapidly, and the Ganqimaodu Port maintained a level of over 1000 vehicles [5]. Demand - Affected by the continuous decline of the futures market, the trading in the downstream and speculative sectors was relatively cautious, and the prices of high - priced resources in online auctions began to decline [5]. Inventory - Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before, and downstream continued to haul. Coal mine inventories were generally at a low level, and most had been cleared. Currently, the origin has shown a declining inventory trend for 7 consecutive weeks. The weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 17.37 tons to 226.85 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 22.72 tons to 192.97 tons [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 868.68 (+6.38); FW clean coal 444.06 (+3.09) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.81 (+0.21); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.97 (-0.19) | | Demand | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 106.15; Mine clean coal - 30.18; Independent coking +7.35; Steel mill coking +4.28; Port imported coking coal - 10.23; 288 Port +2 | MS total inventory - 2.82; Independent coking - 6.50; Steel mills - 13.29; Ports +16.97 | | Profit | Commodity coal 418 (+65) | Average profit of coking enterprises - 45 (+9) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1328; Lvliang Shenjiamao 894; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 973 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1460 | [7] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The supply data includes the production of raw coal and clean coal from coal washing plants and coal mines, as well as the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [9][10][11][13][14]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 14.18 tons to 194.71 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 13.86 tons to 118.77 tons [17]. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 282.11 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.23 tons [22]. - Coking plant inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants are presented, including overall and regional data [25][27]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [30]. Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are shown, including overall and regional data [33][34][35][37]. - Output: The daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mills is presented [39][41]. Inventory - Coking plant inventory: The inventory of coke in coking plants is shown, including overall and historical data [43]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coke in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [44][46][47]. - Total inventory: The total inventory of coke from all samples is presented [49]. Demand - The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the daily output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises [51]. Profit - The profit data of coke includes the disk profit per ton of coke, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises, and the spot profit per ton of coke [54][55]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2509 and coking coal 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [59]. Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2509 and coke 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [62]. Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coal and coke are presented [66]. Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions are shown [69]. Coal and Coke Basis - On August 1st, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was - 68 (futures at a discount to the spot), and the basis of coke was 125 (futures at a premium to the spot) [73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Rebar and coil: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Glass: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Soda ash: Fluctuation [2] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [3] - Gold: Fluctuation [3] - Silver: High-level fluctuation [3] - Pulp: Fluctuating upward [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuating downward [6] - Live pigs: Fluctuating downward [8] - Rubber: Fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Weak consolidation [9] Core Views - The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction after the short-term sentiment is released [2][3][6][8] - The end-of-month Politburo meeting is approaching, and the macro is neutral to strong. Pay attention to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The steel industry's expectation of stable growth in the short term has improved market sentiment. Pay attention to whether there will be more policies issued at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - The real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial [3] - The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the market's risk aversion sentiment is dominated by the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [3] - The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. Pay attention to the FOMC meeting on July 25th [3] - The fundamentals of pulp show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] - The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of live pigs continues to increase, and high temperatures restrict consumption. It is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - The natural rubber industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9] Grouped Summaries Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply is still loose. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term, but the supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged in the long term. Pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - Coking coal and coke: The "anti-involution" policy is fermenting, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented. The fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and the supply side [2] - Rebar and coil: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The demand for building materials has declined in the off-season, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is difficult to have an inverse seasonal performance, and it is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. Pay attention to policy issuance [2] - Glass: The inventory of glass factories continues to decline, and the supply remains low. The market sentiment has improved, and the production and sales have improved. However, the demand is difficult to rebound significantly in the long term. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] - Soda ash: The supply is low, and the market sentiment is good. The downstream inventory is low and there is room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.53%, the Shanghai 50 index fell by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.08%. The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has consolidated. The Treasury bond trend has rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the risk aversion demand is still there. The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. It is expected that gold will fluctuate mainly [3] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price is stable, the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - Logs: The port inventory has increased, the cost support has strengthened, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] Oils and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, the supply is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas, the arrival of soybeans, and Sino-US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight continues to decline, the supply continues to increase, high temperatures restrict consumption, and it is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - Rubber: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, the raw material prices are firm, the industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The supply and demand are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Oscillation; Coal and coke - Uptrend; Rolled steel - Oscillation; Glass - Uptrend; Soda ash - Bullish [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index - Rebound; CSI 300 Index - Oscillation; CSI 500 Index - Oscillation; CSI 1000 Index - Oscillation; 2 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury bond - Rebound; Gold - Oscillation; Silver - Bullish operation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Correction; Log - Correction [6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - Oscillation and correction; Palm oil - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed oil - Oscillation and correction [6] - **Feed Industry**: Soybean meal - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed meal - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation and correction [8] - **Agricultural Products Industry**: Live pigs - Oscillation and weakness [8] - **Soft Commodities Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - see; PTA - Wait - and - see; MEG - Wait - and - see; PR - Wait - and - see; PF - Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views - The black industry is affected by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation varies by product [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the start of the full - island customs closure operation in Hainan Free Trade Port, and central bank operations. The upward momentum of the market weakens, and risk preferences decline [3][4]. - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies, as well as geopolitical conflicts, affect the market sentiment [4][6]. - The pulp and log markets show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [6]. - The oil and fat and feed markets are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and trade agreements. After previous rises, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term [6][8]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as temperature, slaughter enterprise procurement, and supply - demand relationship. The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may also weaken [8]. - The rubber market is affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and cost. Most products are in a wait - and - see state [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume increases, and the supply is still abundant. In the short term, the fundamentals are acceptable, but in the medium and long term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It follows the trend of finished products, and attention should be paid to the support at 800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: The expectation of anti - involution policies and supply - side policies boosts market sentiment. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still has pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel (Thread Steel)**: The "anti - involution" policy stimulates supply - side sentiment, but the overall demand is weak. In the short term, it is supported by policies, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand side has weakening real demand but strong speculative demand. The supply side has increasing production pressure. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It is bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the real demand and supply - side trends [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market upward momentum weakens, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [3][4]. - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. In the short term, it is affected by the Fed's policies and geopolitical factors. Silver is bullish [4][6]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6]. - **Log**: The supply pressure is not large, but the anti - involution sentiment weakens, and log prices are expected to correct [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Although supported by the bio - diesel expectation, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [6]. Feed Industry - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, Soybean No. 1**: Affected by factors such as US soybean production, inventory, and trade agreements, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [8]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live Pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may weaken due to factors such as supply increase and demand suppression by high temperatures [8]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: Affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory, prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Most products in the polyester industry are affected by supply - demand and cost factors and are in a wait - and - see state [10].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel: Stronger [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Stronger Sideways [4] - Silver: Stronger [4] - Pulp: Sideways Upward [6] - Logs: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways Upward [6] - Live pigs: Sideways Weaker [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Wait - and - See [9] - MEG: Wait - and - See [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including black industry products, financial futures, precious metals, agricultural products, and chemical products. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, cost changes, and geopolitical situations to predict the price trends of these commodities [2][4][6][9]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, with subsequent supply remaining abundant. During the industrial off - season, steel production decreased, but hot metal production rose. Port inventories slightly increased. In the short - term, influenced by policies and sentiment, prices rose strongly, breaking through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Anti - involution policy expectations are fermenting, making coking coal and coke the leading varieties in the black sector. After the second price increase, coke still faces cost pressure, and the market has a stronger expectation of future price increases. With hot metal production remaining high, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and the futures prices are expected to be stronger in the short - term [2]. - **Rolled steel**: The "anti - involution" policy has boosted supply - side sentiment. Although the central urban work conference was below expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry continued to push up market sentiment. During the off - season, construction material demand declined, but steel profits were okay, and inventory pressure was not significant [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand for glass deep - processing orders weakened slightly, but speculative demand was strong. Supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the supply side. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw increases in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows while others had outflows. China's economic data reflects resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bond prices are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Influenced by factors such as the US debt problem, trade tensions, and increased Chinese physical gold demand, the logic for the current gold price increase remains valid, and it is expected to be in a stronger sideways trend [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable. The decrease in raw material prices weakens cost support. The paper industry is in a low - profit state, and demand is in the off - season. Affected by the anti - involution policy, pulp prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipping volume of logs at ports has increased. The supply pressure is not large, and cost support has strengthened. Affected by the anti - involution policy, log prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but inventory increased. The increase in US biodiesel production supports soybean oil demand. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and after the previous increase, prices may correct in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated US soybean production decreased, but the increase in end - of - year inventory exceeded expectations. The good growth of US soybeans and the positive bio - fuel policy support soybean prices. Domestic soybean imports are large, and meal prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing. The average settlement price of slaughter enterprises has slightly increased, but the price is in a downward trend. With sufficient supply and weak consumption, the average price of live pigs may decline in the future [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rainy weather in major rubber - producing areas has affected raw material supply. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has a structural recovery, but is restricted by market demand. Rubber inventories are in a state of adjustment, and rubber prices are expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend [9]. - **PX**: In the short - term, the PX supply - demand remains tight, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost is volatile, the supply has increased, and downstream demand has decreased. The price follows the cost in the short - and medium - term [9]. - **MEG**: The recent arrival volume is small, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The supply pressure has eased, and the price is in a stronger sideways trend in the short - term [9]. - **PR and PF**: Affected by the macro - environment and market sentiment, the polyester bottle - chip and polyester staple - fiber markets are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term coal and coke prices may show a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall due to frequent disturbances in the news and fundamental support. After the coke price increase, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking enthusiasm. The supply will be more focused on stable production and environmental safety inspections in the second half of the year, and the supply increase will be affected. With healthy steel mill profits and high - level hot metal production, coal and coke prices are supported. The market is in a positive feedback trading logic, and the short - term trend is regarded as oscillating upward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Coal**: Domestic coal supply has slightly decreased. The production of some previously overhauled and accident - halted mines in the main producing areas has gradually recovered, while some mines have reduced production due to factors such as underground working face replacement. The weekly sample coal mine raw coal output decreased by 26,500 tons to 12.2788 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.18% to 85.43%. Overseas, the port was closed for 5 days during the Nadam Fair (July 11 - 15) and resumed customs clearance on the 16th. The customs clearance volume has gradually recovered in the past two days. The average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port from July 14 - 17 was 779 vehicles [6] - **Coke**: The supply of coke production areas has gradually increased, but the growth rate is limited. The daily average output of independent coking plants is 642,000 tons (+1,000 tons), and that of steel mills and coking enterprises is 471,000 tons (-1,000 tons) [3][9] 3.2 Demand - **Coal**: Coke enterprises and intermediate links are actively purchasing, and coal mines have booming orders. Some resources at the mine mouth are in short supply, but the overall arrival of coke enterprises has not improved significantly, and some have difficulty increasing inventory and even experience passive inventory reduction [6] - **Coke**: After the blast furnace overhaul, the hot metal production has increased month - on - month, and the demand for coke has strengthened. The hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons) [6][9] 3.3 Inventory - **Coal**: The total MS inventory of coking coal decreased by 776,000 tons. Mine inventory decreased by 503,000 tons, independent coking plant inventory increased by 368,000 tons, steel mill coking plant inventory increased by 82,000 tons, port inventory decreased by 66,000 tons, and port - related inventory decreased by 688,000 tons [9] - **Coke**: The total MS inventory of coke decreased by 73,000 tons. Independent coking plant inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, steel mill inventory increased by 12,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons. The available days of coke inventory in the monitored steel enterprises are 10.85 days, a decrease of 0.18 days compared with the same period last week [4][9] 3.4 Investment Outlook - Not provided in the document 3.5 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data - **Coking Coal**: FW raw coal is 8.6656 million tons (-15,600 tons), FW clean coal is 4.4244 million tons (-10,500 tons), hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons), the profit of commercial coal is 326 yuan/ton (+36 yuan/ton), and there are different warehouse receipt prices [9] - **Coke**: The daily average output of independent coking plants is 642,000 tons (+1,000 tons), that of steel mills and coking enterprises is 471,000 tons (-1,000 tons), hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons), the average profit of coking enterprises is - 65 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton), and the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1,384 yuan/ton [9] 3.6 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts have changed. For example, on July 18, 2025, the closing price of coking coal 2509 was 926 yuan/ton, with a change of 7.5 yuan [60] - **Coke Futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts have also changed. On July 18, 2025, the closing price of coke 2509 was 1,518 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan [63] - **Spot Prices**: Different types of coking coal and coke have corresponding spot prices, and the basis of coking coal and coke is also provided. For example, on July 18, the basis of coking coal was 14, and that of coke was - 134 [70][74]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Silver: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Pulp: Fluctuation [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Palm Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Soybean Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - MEG: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products including the black industry, financial products, light industry products, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It provides investment ratings and market outlooks based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international events [2][4][6][7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term rebound due to emotional disturbances, with long - term supply increasing, demand remaining low, and port inventories entering a replenishment cycle. Focus on whether the 2509 contract can break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, prices rise. Supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal - coke supply [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: "Anti - involution" boosts supply - side sentiment. In the off - season, demand shows a slight rebound, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The overall pattern is high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [2] - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. Speculative sentiment is ignited in some areas. In the long - term, demand is difficult to recover significantly. In the short - term, it rebounds slightly [2] - **Soda Ash**: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is weak. In the short - term, the valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by emotions [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Data reflects China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment eases. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds show a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data affect prices. Gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Light Industry Products - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cost support weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Logs**: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure eases, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports are strong. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate slightly upward, with palm oil relatively stronger [6] - **Meal Products**: U.S. soybean production is good, and domestic soybean arrivals are large. Meal products are expected to fluctuate slightly downward [6] - **Live Pigs**: Supply is tightening, and prices are rising. Terminal procurement enthusiasm increases, and prices are expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, and demand shows a structural recovery. Inventory is in a state of adjustment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9] - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short - term, and prices follow oil prices [9] - **PTA**: In the medium - term, supply and demand weaken, and prices follow costs in the short - term [9] - **MEG**: Supply pressure increases, and prices are under pressure [9] - **PR and PF**: The market may be stable or weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has been fluctuating recently. Fundamentally, the supply - demand pressure of coking coal has slightly eased, and the price volatility has intensified. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Content Macro - economic and Policy Impact - The US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1. He also threatened 14 countries with new tariff rates, which affected the market to run weakly. The end of the safety production month and the completion of the one - month inspection by the supervision team led to the resumption of production in some regional coal mines, cooling the bullish market sentiment. The meeting last Tuesday proposed anti - involution and capacity reduction, which, although mainly targeting the electric vehicle and photovoltaic industries, also disturbed the coal market sentiment due to the over - supply in the coal market, intensifying the price volatility of coking coal. [3] Fundamental Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines in major production areas in Shanxi such as Changzhi and Linfen resumed production intensively, with a slight increase in output. However, there were still shortages in some phases and coal types. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. The daily average clean coal output was 739,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 tons. [4] - **Demand**: Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have increased from a low level. Coupled with the previous production cuts in coal mines, the inventory pressure of coking coal at the mine end has been relieved. The coking clean coal inventory at the mine end was 4.092 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 896,000 tons in the past two weeks and a year - on - year increase of 1.26 million tons. [4] - **Import**: Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has remained at a relatively low level, and the port inventory has steadily decreased. From July 11th to 15th, the port will be temporarily closed due to the Mongolian Naadam Festival. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The divergence between futures and spot prices persists, and the weak reality still suppresses the market. The emergence of a rebound signal for coal and coke prices depends on whether the market's expectation of future supply - demand loosening is revised. Considering that the increase in domestic production may narrow in the future, combined with the transmission of cost - side pressure from upstream coal mines, it is possible that event - driven disturbances will amplify the price volatility of coal and coke. However, due to the unchanged characteristics of fundamental pressure, the lack of endogenous momentum may keep prices in a dynamic bottom - seeking stage. The investment outlook is to shrink coking profits [6][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Situation 3.1.1 Supply - In June, during the coal mine safety production month, domestic coal production and operation weakened. Many coal mines that had stopped production due to accidents had not resumed production, and environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia led to the shutdown of many private open - pit mines, with some mines experiencing short - term production cuts. The weekly output of sample coal mines decreased by 12.39 tons to 1238.52 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.86% to 86.17%. Overseas, on June 11, the Mandula port was closed for one day due to the Buddha's birthday. From June 9 - 12, the port was open for three days, with an average daily clearance of 176 vehicles, an increase of 43 vehicles compared to the same period last week [3] 3.1.2 Demand - The downward trend of hot metal production continued, but the decline slope was gentle. Coking enterprises continued to control procurement volume. However, as coal prices continued to fall, some enterprises appropriately increased the procurement of scarce coking coal varieties. Affected by environmental inspections this week, the operating load of some coking enterprises decreased, and the available days of raw material coal in the factories increased slightly. The inventory of raw material coal of sample coking enterprises increased by 0.19 days to 5.84 days [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and future inventory replenishment will mainly be based on rigid demand. Due to general terminal demand this week, traders mainly focused on reducing inventory. Steel mills had limited overall shipments, and there was a strong expectation of poor steel shipments. Inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing, and hot metal production will continue to decline. Affected by this, steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, mainly controlling the volume. The inventory of raw materials in the factories continued to decline. The available days of coke inventory of steel enterprises in the monitored sample points were 11.43 days, a decrease of 0.33 days compared to the same period last week [5] 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 866.29 (- 6.67); FW clean coal 440.65 (- 4.33) | Independent coking plants' daily average 65 (- 1.5); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 47.2 (-) | | Demand | Hot metal production 241.61 (- 0.19) | Hot metal production 241.61 (- 0.19) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 17.2; Mine + 13.5; Independent coking - 20.8; Steel mill coking + 3.1; Port - 0; Port + 4.4 | MS total inventory - 12.4; Independent coking + - 1.3; Steel mill - 3.0; Port - 8.2 | | Profit | Commodity coal 322 (- 15) | Average profit of coking enterprises 15 (- 24) | | Warehouse Receipt | Xiangning low - sulfur warehouse receipt 800; Lvliang Shenjiamao 871; Meng 5 warehouse receipt 828 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1297 | [9] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Data on the supply of coking coal from aspects such as coal washing plants, monthly production, and Mongolian coal customs clearance are presented through multiple charts, including the production and capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants, monthly production of coking coal, and customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at different ports [11][13][14] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 16.9 tons to 452.4 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 0.64 tons to 430.6 tons. The coking coal port inventory was 313.02 tons, an increase of 11.46 tons compared to last week. Inventory data of coking coal in coking plants, steel mills, and different regions are also presented through charts [22][26] 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - The document shows the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills through charts, including the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises, and the daily average production of coke [36][38][41] 3.4.2 Inventory - Inventory data of coke in coking plants, steel mills, different regions, and the overall sample are presented through charts, including the inventory and available days of coke in coking plants and steel mills [45][46][50] 3.4.3 Demand - The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the hot metal production of steel enterprises, and the document also presents the supply - demand difference between coke supply and demand [53] 3.4.4 Profit - Data on coke profit, including the on - disk profit per ton of coke, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the spot profit per ton of coke, are presented through charts [55] 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.5.1 Coking Coal Futures - The trading data of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 10 - 13, 2025, including closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented in a table [58] 3.5.2 Coke Futures - The trading data of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 10 - 13, 2025, including closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented in a table [61] 3.5.3 Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coking coal (JM2509 - JM2601) and coke (J2509 - J2601) from February - May 2025 are presented through charts [66] 3.5.4 Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented through charts, including the car - loading prices of different coking coal varieties and the summary prices of different types of coke [69] 3.5.5 Coal and Coke Basis - The basis data of coking coal and coke are presented through charts. On June 13, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was 53, and the basis of coke was - 53 [72][73]