1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke prices have corrected after surging last week, but considering the situation of roll - over and short - selling after the widening of the monthly spread, the overall prices should be treated as wide - range fluctuations [6]. - The trading logic of the market mainly focuses on two aspects. Firstly, due to geopolitical disturbances, the energy attribute of coking coal has fermented. The price of overseas energy products has risen, leading to an increase in the shipping cost and arrival price of imported coal in the domestic market, intensifying the inversion of the internal - external price difference. Coking coal has attracted more secondary - market funds, and the precipitation fund volume has increased from 9.527 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 11.337 billion yuan. Secondly, affected by the rise in energy - chemical prices, the profit of coking plants has improved, and there is an expectation of capacity utilization repair. The replenishment behavior has tightened the spot market of coking coal, and the price is expected to continue to rise. In the short term, investors are advised to be cautious and sell out - of - the - money call options [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Domestic supply: Some coal mines in the main producing areas have limited production due to reasons such as working - face relocation or other underground issues, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. A coal mine in Lvliang has stopped production due to resource exhaustion, causing a significant decline in raw coal production. The weekly raw coal output of sample coal mines decreased by 165,400 tons to 12.3678 million tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 62,800 tons to 6.1265 million tons. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.15% to 86.04%. In terms of imports, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port has remained high. From March 23 to March 26, the port cleared customs for 4 days, with an average daily clearance of 1,400 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 15 vehicles [3]. Demand - Steel plants are in the stage of resuming production. The pig iron output has risen to 2.3109 million tons, and the demand for raw materials has increased. The first round of price increase for coke will be implemented on April 1 [4]. Inventory - The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has increased by 445,000 tons week - on - week. Except for the mine end, inventories at other levels have accumulated. The inventory at the coal mine end has decreased by 386,000 tons. The independent coking plants' coking coal inventory has increased by 425,000 tons compared with last week [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.753 million tons (- 55,600 tons); FW clean coal 4.4588 million tons (- 26,600 tons); Independent coking plants' daily average 64,800 tons (+ 500 tons); Steel mill coking enterprises' daily average 47,300 tons (+ 0 tons) | - | | Demand | Pig iron output 2.3109 million tons (+ 29,400 tons) | Pig iron output 2.3109 million tons (+ 29,400 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 445,000 tons; Mine raw coal - 170,500 tons; Mine clean coal - 166,400 tons; Independent coking - 42,000 tons; Independent coking + 425,000 tons; Steel mills + 35,000 tons; Steel mill coking + 85,000 tons; Ports + 209,000 tons; Ports + 49,000 tons; Port + 38,000 tons | - | | Profit | Commodity coal 490 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton) | Coking enterprises' average profit 47 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse receipt | Meng 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1,316 yuan/ton | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1,700 yuan/ton | [8] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - Weekly data shows the production and capacity utilization rate of 523 sample mines, including raw coal and clean coal production. Monthly data shows the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. The customs - cleared volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs - cleared volume of the three ports are also presented [10][12][13]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 129,100 tons to 1.4169 million tons week - on - week, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 972,000 tons. Port inventory: The coking coal port inventory was 2.6944 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons. Coking plant inventory: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in independent coking plants are presented, including overall and regional data. Steel mill inventory: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises are presented, including overall and regional data [23][25][28] Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises is presented, including overall and regional data. Production: The daily output of independent coking plants and steel enterprises is presented, including overall and historical data [36][41][43]. Inventory - Coking plant inventory: The inventory of independent coking plants is presented, including overall and historical data. Steel mill inventory: The inventory, average available days, and regional data of steel mill coking plants are presented. Total inventory of all samples: The total inventory of coke is presented, including historical data. Supply - demand difference: The supply - demand difference of coke and the daily output of pig iron are presented [46][47][56]. Profit - The disk profit of coking per ton and the average profit of independent coking enterprises per ton are presented [61]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Futures - Coking coal futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2605 and 2609 futures contracts from March 20 to March 27, 2026 are presented. Coke futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2605 and 2609 futures contracts from March 20 to March 27, 2026 are presented [64][67]. Monthly Spread - The monthly spreads of coking coal and coke futures contracts in different years are presented [72][74]. Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke, including different varieties and regions, are presented [78]. Basis - The basis of coking coal 2605, 2609 and coke 2605, 2609 is presented [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overseas tariff policies are unpredictable, which still has a certain impact on market sentiment. The overall sentiment in the ferrous metal market is rather gloomy. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is not significant, and prices move accordingly [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - On the first trading day after the holiday, the ferrous metal sector weakened as a whole, with coal and coke experiencing significant declines. Prices approached the lower limit of the recent oscillation range. During the night session, prices briefly rose and then fell [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: During the holiday, many domestic coal mines stopped production, leading to a sharp decrease in coal output. The market was inactive with few transactions. As of February 23, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal was 1.086 million tons and 459,000 tons respectively, a decrease of 722,000 tons and 284,000 tons compared to before the holiday. Coal mines are now in the resumption cycle, and output is expected to significantly rebound this week. The Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal has resumed customs clearance, with a throughput of about 180,000 tons on February 23, and the inventory in the port supervision area is still at a relatively high level [3] - **Demand Side**: Currently, steel mills' profits are average, but molten iron production is generally in a slow resumption state, with a daily output of about 2.3 million tons [3] - **Inventory Situation**: During the Spring Festival, logistics and transportation were affected, and the turnover efficiency of goods decreased. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed their in - plant raw material inventories. Some coking enterprises faced restrictions on coke transportation, resulting in an increase in in - plant inventory [3]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The current supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is general. The overall sentiment of the ferrous metal market is weak, and prices are running weakly. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to controlling position risks [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, with a slight rebound in night - trading, and overall continued the weak oscillation. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the seasonal off - season has restricted the rebound height of coal and coke [3] Supply Side - Last week, domestic coal mines began to shut down for holidays one after another. Mines in Yunnan, Jinzhong of Shanxi and other places had earlier holidays, and the output decline was obvious. Around the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month this week, private coal mines will enter the peak holiday period, with a sharp increase in shut - down mines and a significant output decline. Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.925 million tons and 755,000 tons respectively, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons and 16,000 tons [3] - The expected reduction in coal production has a certain support for coal prices, but the production cut basically follows the previous years' rules, and downstream has stocked up in advance, so there is no driving force for continuous increase [3] - Last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the Spring Festival in 2026, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17th to 20th), and will also be closed on February 15th and 22nd (Sundays) as usual [3] Demand Side - Steel mills' production is relatively stable, and the daily average pig iron output is maintained at around 2.28 million tons [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coal and coke show a situation of weak supply and demand, with sentiment playing a dominant role. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand of coal and coke is in a structural repair. There is an expected tightening of supply in the main coking coal production areas before the festival. Considering the upcoming coal mine shutdowns for the holiday, the upstream inventory is continuously being depleted, and there is currently no significant inventory pressure. Additionally, as the downstream is in the restocking cycle, the rigid demand for procurement still provides some support for prices. Overseas countries are planning to include coking coal in strategic reserve key minerals, which may affect China's import volume and domestic - foreign price difference, but since the import window for seaborne coal has been closed since January, it will not have a major impact on the subsequent increment and the current stock market. Overall, coal and coke will continue to fluctuate at a high level, but attention should be paid to the resistance from the industrial spot - futures market in the future [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - Domestic supply: Some coal mines in the production areas have continued to increase their output, and coal mines that were previously affected by safety supervision and had production cuts have returned to normal. The sample coal mine raw coal output this week increased by 14.67 tons week - on - week to 1234.29 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.02% week - on - week to 85.87%. In terms of imports, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port has been running at a high level. From January 26th to 29th, the port was open for 4 days, with an average daily customs - cleared vehicle number of 1457, a week - on - week increase of 281 vehicles [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The first round of coke price increase was implemented last week, and it is expected to run stably after the increase. Coking plants generally have a conservative attitude, and their restocking of coking coal is almost complete, with a weak willingness to purchase at higher prices. This week, the national average daily pig iron output was 227.98 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons from last week, and the rigid demand for raw materials has weakened [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The total coking coal inventory at all levels increased by 35.3 tons week - on - week. It is still in the winter restocking cycle. The pit - mouth inventory decreased and was transferred to downstream coking and steel enterprises. The mine inventory decreased by 11.6 tons week - on - week, and the independent coking inventory increased by 57.1 tons week - on - week [5]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 881.80 (+10.01); FW clean coal 446.56 (+5.08) | Independent coking plant daily average 62.8 (-0.5); Steel mill and coking enterprise daily average 47.0 (+0.1) | | Demand | Pig iron output 227.98 (-0.12) | Pig iron output 227.98 (-0.12) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +35.3; Mine raw coal -0.93; Mine clean coal -13.86; Independent coking +57.1; Steel mill coking +11.1; Port -9.0; Port of entry +4.7 | MS total inventory +13.3; Independent coking +2.9; Steel mill +16.6; Port -6.2 | | Profit | Commodity coal 478 (-3) | Average coking enterprise profit -11 (-5) | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1198 | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weekly: The 523 - sample mine raw coal and clean coal production data are presented, along with the 523 - sample mine start - up rate [10]. - Monthly: The monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal are presented [12]. - Mongolian coal customs clearance: The customs clearance volumes of Ganqimao, Mandula, and Ceke Ports are presented, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three ports [14][16][17][19]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the sample coal mine raw coal inventory decreased by 14.3 tons week - on - week to 186.42 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 3.43 tons week - on - week to 130.63 tons [24]. - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 289.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.52 tons [26]. - Coking plant: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises are presented, including regional and capacity - segmented data [29][31][33]. - Steel mill: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises are presented, including regional data [34]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - Capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises are presented, including data segmented by capacity and region [37][42]. - Output: The daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises is presented [44][46]. 3.4.2 Inventory - Coking plant: The inventory of independent coking enterprises is presented [48]. - Steel mill: The inventory, average available days, and regional inventory data of steel enterprises are presented [49][52][53][55][57]. - Total sample: The total inventory of coke is presented [59]. 3.4.3 Demand - Pig iron: The average daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises is presented, along with the supply - demand difference of coke [61]. 3.4.4 Profit - The disk profit of coke per ton (main continuous contract) and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are presented [64]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.5.1 Coking Coal Futures - The futures market quotations of coking coal 2605 and 2609 are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [68]. 3.5.2 Coke Futures - The futures market quotations of coke 2605 and 2609 are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [71]. 3.5.3 Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spreads of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [74][77]. 3.5.4 Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke are presented, including the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the ex - factory prices of different types of metallurgical coke [79]. 3.5.5 Coal and Coke Basis - The basis of coking coal and coke is presented, including the difference between the warehouse receipt and the futures price [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The fundamental situation of the coking coal and coke industry remains weak, lacking support for price rebounds, and prices are under overall pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward, leading the decline in the ferrous metal sector, and the weak trend continued at night [2]. - Last week, steel mills completed the fourth round of price cuts for coke prices. Since the end of November, coke prices have cumulatively dropped by 200 - 220 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises in certain regions have plans to raise prices [2]. Option News - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of coking coal options. Coking coal options will be listed for trading starting from January 16, 2026 (Friday). There will be a call auction from 8:55 - 9:00, and trading will start at 9:00. Night trading for coking coal options will commence on the evening of January 16 (Friday) [2]. Fundamental Analysis - In the last week of the year, there was concentrated year - end production reduction and maintenance in major coal - producing areas. The daily production of raw coal was 177.2 million tons, and the daily production of clean coal was 69 million tons, which decreased by 10.2 million tons and 4.9 million tons respectively compared with the previous week. However, coal mines may resume production one after another in January [3]. - Market transactions remain sluggish, and mine - end inventories have further accumulated [3]. - On December 29 and January 1, the three major Mongolian coal customs ports were closed and resumed on January 2. At the beginning of this month, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 15.62 million tons, an increase of 3.76 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a relatively high level [3]. - In the past two weeks, the profitability rate of steel mills has slightly expanded, and the daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 2, it was 227.43 million tons, an increase of 0.85 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.23 million tons year - on - year. It is expected to show a steady and slight upward trend in the short term [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - **Coal Coke**: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - **Glass**: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - **Log**: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - **Pulp**: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - **Double Offset Paper**: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - **Meal**: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - **PX**: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **MEG**: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - **PR**: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - **PF**: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Black Industry - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] Financial - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] Light Industry - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Rising [4] - Double - offset paper: Stable oscillation [4] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Bullish [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Oscillation [9] Polyester - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low - level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various industries including black industry, finance, light industry, oilseeds and oils, agricultural products, soft commodities, and polyester It evaluates the current supply - demand situation, policy impacts, and market trends of each industry's products and provides corresponding investment ratings and short - to medium - term trend predictions [2][3][4][6][7][9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - **Iron ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory remain unchanged The real demand is weak, but short - term policy changes bring bullish sentiment, and the futures continue a technical rebound Long - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after restocking [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to be proposed by the end of the month and implemented in early January End - of - year production capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies provide support, but steel export policies may have a negative impact on raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Policy changes bring short - term bullish sentiment, but steel export policies may reduce export volume and impact raw material prices The current steel price is expected to remain bottom - oscillating [2] - **Glass**: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with high inventory due to weak demand Attention should be paid to macro policies and production line cold - repair [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term oscillation, with some sectors showing capital inflows or outflows The scale of public funds has reached a new high, but stock and hybrid funds have declined [3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations The bond market shows a slight rebound [3] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic data affect its price It is currently in a short - term correction [3] Light Industry - **Logs**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with supply pressure easing and demand relatively weak The price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Pulp**: The cost supports the pulp price, but demand is weak due to low profitability in the papermaking industry and high inventory in paper mills The price may oscillate [4] - **Double - offset paper**: The supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support Price increases are expected to continue, but the fundamental support is weak [4] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory pressure is high The demand for bio - diesel is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant The market is oscillating bearish [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the supply of soybean meal will be sufficient in the future The price is expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline, and demand is expected to increase due to the approaching New Year's Day The pig price is expected to rise slightly [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Production in major domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand is weakly supported The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Polyester - **PX**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine increases supply risks, and the PX price is in wide - range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations affect the cost, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term outlook is poor The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: There is long - term inventory pressure, but imports may decrease in the next two months The price is in low - level oscillation [9] - **PR**: Supply increases, and the market is under pressure, expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PF**: The inventory is low, but downstream orders are insufficient The market is expected to oscillate [9]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market sentiment has slightly improved recently, and prices have seen a phased rebound, but the fundamentals are still weak and lack support for price rebounds [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, with a sharp price movement in the night session. The price of high - quality coking coal in Shanxi remained stable. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [3]. Supply - This week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the month. Coke enterprises started to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions were still weak. Large - mine long - term contracts had low cost - effectiveness, and downstream procurement was inactive. Mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 42,000 tons and 101,000 tons respectively [3]. Demand - The demand is in a downward trend. Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output dropped to 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, which continuously suppressed the rigid demand for raw materials [3]. Import - According to customs data, China's coking coal imports have generally remained at a relatively high level in recent months. In November, China imported 1.07315 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, Mongolia's coking coal imports were 624,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data shows that Mongolia's coal customs clearance in December continued to remain at a high level, and the port supervision area mainly increased inventories [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - Treasury bonds (2-year, 5-year, 10-year): Oscillating, consolidating [4] - Gold and silver: Oscillating strongly [4][6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp and offset paper: Oscillating [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Range-bound [7] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2): Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Weak [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR and PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The coal and coke market has short - term supply pressure, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the price depends on production reduction and policy implementation. The glass market is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market shows a mixed trend. Stock index futures/options are oscillating, and treasury bonds are in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound. The precious metals market is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices oscillating strongly [4]. - The light industry market, including logs and pulp, is in a process of supply - demand re - balancing, with prices expected to oscillate. The edible oils and meals market has uncertain demand prospects, and prices are expected to range - bound or oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, has stable supply but limited terminal demand growth, with prices expected to decline. The soft commodity market, such as rubber, has weak demand and increasing inventory, with prices oscillating weakly. The polyester market has complex supply - demand situations, and prices show different trends such as oscillation, weak oscillation, and waiting - and - seeing [9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices oscillate weakly. After the inventory replenishment and sentiment boost, short - selling opportunities can be sought based on high inventory and surplus expectations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. After the first round of coke price cuts in December, there are still expectations of further cuts. Although there is support at the bottom, the market is weak [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and it is in an oscillating state. The key lies in steel demand, and steel prices depend on production reduction and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: The price is weak, with low processing orders and high inventory. Whether it can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day showed a decline, and the market is oscillating. High - tech industries continue to grow, and market sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the market is in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound [4]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. Silver is also affected by similar factors, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments have increased, but demand improvement needs to be observed. Supply pressure may gradually ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: The spot price is stable, but demand is weak. The cost supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. - Double - gum paper: The price is stable, with stable supply and some support from orders, but weak social demand restricts price increases, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - Edible oils: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties, palm oil production and exports are complex, and domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support, prices are expected to range - bound [7]. - Meals: The global soybean inventory is abundant, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestic supply is ample, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend, terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. The slaughter rate has increased, and the profit situation varies [9]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: Production in some regions is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating, PTA prices follow the cost, MEG prices are weakly oscillating, and PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of stable supply and weak demand, coking coal and coke prices lack upward momentum and are expected to face downward pressure. The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures have gradually shifted to the 2605 contract, and the prices have not yet stabilized, so operations should be cautious [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward, and the prices remained weak at night. Affected by the weak delivery logic, the 01 contract of coking coal led the decline. The spot market was generally weak, with domestic coal prices experiencing a supplementary decline. Steel mills completed the first round of price cuts for coke and there were still expectations of further cuts [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: It is expected that the supply of coking coal will remain relatively stable. The production of domestic coking coal mines is not significantly boosted by coal supply guarantees, and it is difficult for coking coal output to increase significantly during the off - season of downstream demand. However, imports remain at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal increased to 19.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.77 tons. The total arrival volume of seaborne coal last week was 958.63 tons, reaching a new high since November last year [3] - Demand: The pressure of the seasonal off - season will become more apparent. The profitability rate of steel mills is around 35%, and the blast furnace hot metal output is still in a slow decline, continuously suppressing the rigid demand for raw materials. Since December, steel mills have started to transfer the pressure to the raw material end. The key variable in demand lies in the inventory replenishment rhythm before the Spring Festival. If downstream enterprises start to replenish raw material inventories intensively in mid - to - late December, the demand side may receive phased support, but the intensity of replenishment will still be restricted by the sales and profits of finished products, and the sustainability is expected to be weak [3]