从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦煤期权即将上市 短期期价表现仍偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 6 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格震荡下行，领跌黑色金属板块，夜盘延续 弱势。现货方面，上周钢厂完成对焦价的第 4 轮调降，自 11 月底至此焦 价累计下跌 200-220 元/吨。焦企利润被持续压缩，个别地区焦企有提涨 计划。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期大商所发布焦煤期权上市交易有关事项，焦煤期权自 2026 年 1 月 16 日（周五）起上市交易，当日 8:55-9: ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - **Coal Coke**: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - **Glass**: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - **Log**: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - **Pulp**: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - **Double Offset Paper**: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - **Meal**: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - **PX**: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **MEG**: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - **PR**: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - **PF**: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-30） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿自身高供给、弱需求、高库存格局不变。当下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 铁水有所企稳、但板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期升温，现 | | | | 震荡 | 实需求疲弱。近期政策面有三项较为重要的变化，一是出 | | | 铁矿石 | | 口许可管理，二是发改委强调明年开始有效管控双高项 | | | | | 目，三是高层扩内需的强调，短期产生利多情绪。同时较 | | | | | 为明显的低库存+钢厂节前补库预期逻辑，铁矿石期货暂 | | | | | 时忽略了需求淡季和库存高位的现实压力，延续技术性反 | | | | | 弹。长期做空机会的入场节点，需要等补库兑现之后再行 | | | | | 考虑。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：焦炭第四轮提降预计月底提，预计 1 月初落地。年 | | | | | 底产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政策的 | | | | | 预期，煤焦仍有支撑 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：煤矿年底减量 盘面延续震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：近期市场情绪稍有回暖，价格迎阶段性反弹，但基本面表现仍 偏弱势，缺少对价格反弹的支撑。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 25 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格震荡运行，夜盘高开低走，价格波动较为剧 烈。现货方面，山西地区优质主焦煤价暂稳运行；焦炭端，钢厂完成对焦 价的第三轮提降，价格跌后下游或有补库原料动作。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 本周煤矿存在月底减量动作，焦企开始适 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - Treasury bonds (2-year, 5-year, 10-year): Oscillating, consolidating [4] - Gold and silver: Oscillating strongly [4][6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp and offset paper: Oscillating [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Range-bound [7] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2): Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Weak [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR and PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The coal and coke market has short - term supply pressure, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the price depends on production reduction and policy implementation. The glass market is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market shows a mixed trend. Stock index futures/options are oscillating, and treasury bonds are in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound. The precious metals market is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices oscillating strongly [4]. - The light industry market, including logs and pulp, is in a process of supply - demand re - balancing, with prices expected to oscillate. The edible oils and meals market has uncertain demand prospects, and prices are expected to range - bound or oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, has stable supply but limited terminal demand growth, with prices expected to decline. The soft commodity market, such as rubber, has weak demand and increasing inventory, with prices oscillating weakly. The polyester market has complex supply - demand situations, and prices show different trends such as oscillation, weak oscillation, and waiting - and - seeing [9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices oscillate weakly. After the inventory replenishment and sentiment boost, short - selling opportunities can be sought based on high inventory and surplus expectations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. After the first round of coke price cuts in December, there are still expectations of further cuts. Although there is support at the bottom, the market is weak [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and it is in an oscillating state. The key lies in steel demand, and steel prices depend on production reduction and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: The price is weak, with low processing orders and high inventory. Whether it can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day showed a decline, and the market is oscillating. High - tech industries continue to grow, and market sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the market is in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound [4]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. Silver is also affected by similar factors, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments have increased, but demand improvement needs to be observed. Supply pressure may gradually ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: The spot price is stable, but demand is weak. The cost supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. - Double - gum paper: The price is stable, with stable supply and some support from orders, but weak social demand restricts price increases, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - Edible oils: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties, palm oil production and exports are complex, and domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support, prices are expected to range - bound [7]. - Meals: The global soybean inventory is abundant, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestic supply is ample, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend, terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. The slaughter rate has increased, and the profit situation varies [9]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: Production in some regions is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating, PTA prices follow the cost, MEG prices are weakly oscillating, and PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [11].

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤通关高位 盘面偏弱运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 9 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡下行，夜盘价格维持弱势，弱交割逻辑影响 下，焦煤 01 合约跌幅居前。现货市场总体偏弱，国内煤价补跌；钢厂对 焦炭价格完成首轮调降，仍存提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，预计焦煤供应维持相对稳定格局。国内焦煤矿生产受 保供的提振作用相对有限，在下游需求进入淡季的阶段下，焦煤产量难有 显著增幅；但进口端仍处高位，继续对国内煤价形成压制，其中上周蒙煤 甘 ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月7日 煤焦：供需差预期羸弱，估值下修 ➢ 焦煤线上竞拍的流拍率依然较高，焦企仍然预期原料现货价格的持续下跌，采购情绪较为低迷，下游高炉产量再度环比下滑。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地供应的修复依然较为缓慢，外蒙维持较高的通车量，市场对于未来源头产量的恢复预期依然较足。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外的降息预期逐渐形成共识，但国内风偏所反映出的是对政策干预力度不足的预期。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 发改委对外的监管态度依然显示当前煤炭处于保供周期，市场对于未来的煤炭供给恢复预期依然较强，叠加已阶段性见顶的高 炉开工数据，煤焦的需求空间同样受到一定压制，使得前期较高的煤焦估值近期出现较大回落。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | FW原煤853.4（-2.68） | 独立焦化厂日均64.53（+0.77） | | | FW精煤438.18（-0.57 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal online auction failure rate remains high, coke enterprises still expect a continuous decline in raw material spot prices, and their purchasing sentiment is relatively low. Downstream blast furnace production has decreased again on a week - on - week basis [4]. - The restoration of origin supply is still slow, but Mongolia maintains a high vehicle - passing volume, and the market still has strong expectations for the recovery of future source production. There are still differences in the overseas December interest rate decision, but the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased this week, and the overseas risk appetite has increased to some extent before Thanksgiving, with the US dollar index also falling on a week - on - week basis [5]. - The regulatory attitude of the National Development and Reform Commission indicates that coal is currently in a supply - guarantee cycle. The market has strong expectations for the recovery of future coal supply. Coupled with the blast furnace start - up data that has reached a phased peak, the demand space for coal and coke is also suppressed to some extent, causing the previously high valuation of coal and coke to decline significantly recently [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: FW raw coal is 856.08 (+4.63), independent coking plants' daily average is 63.76 (+1.09); FW clean coal is 438.75 (+4.91), steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average is 46.32 (+0.10) [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal output is 234.68 (-1.6) [7]. - **Inventory**: MS total inventory increases by 34.8, mine raw coal increases by 17.4, mine clean coal increases by 38.0, independent coking decreases by 5.6, independent coking inventory decreases by 27.9, steel mills increase by 3.2, steel mill coking increases by 4.2, ports increase by 6.5, ports increase by 3.0, and FW port increases by 0.3 [7]. - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal is 559 (-28), and the average profit of coking enterprises is 46 (+27) [7]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt of Meng 5 in Tangshan is 1190, and the warehouse receipt of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1621 [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply - Weekly**: It includes data on the start - up rate of 523 sample mines, FW raw coal production, daily average clean coal production of 523 sample mines, and FW clean coal production [9]. - **Supply - Monthly**: It shows the monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal [11]. - **Supply - Mongolia Coal Customs Clearance**: It presents the customs clearance volume data of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three ports [13][16][17][19]. - **Inventory - Pithead**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 12.34 tons week - on - week to 168.15 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 9.56 tons week - on - week to 107.55 tons [24]. - **Inventory - Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3 tons week - on - week [26]. - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: It includes data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, and the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants in different regions [29][31]. - **Inventory - By Capacity - Available Days**: It shows the inventory available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants with different production capacities [33]. - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: It includes data on the inventory, available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their sample coking plants, and the inventory data of 247 steel enterprises' sample coking plants in different regions [34]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant**: It shows the capacity utilization rate data of independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants with different production capacities and in different regions [37]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill**: It presents the capacity utilization rate data of 247 steel enterprises [39]. - **Supply - Output - Coking Plant**: It includes the daily output data of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises [41]. - **Supply - Output - Steel Mill**: It shows the daily output data of 247 steel enterprises' sample coking plants [43]. - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: It includes the inventory data of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants [45]. - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: It includes the inventory, average available days data of 247 steel enterprises' sample coking plants, and the inventory and available days data in different regions [46][48][49]. - **Inventory - All - Sample Summary**: It shows the total inventory data of coke and the supply - demand difference data [51][53]. - **Profit**: It presents the profit data of coke, including the disk profit of ton - coke and the average profit of independent coking enterprises [56][57]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: It provides the futures market data of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [60]. - **Coke Futures**: It offers the futures market data of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [62]. - **Coal and Coke Monthly Spread**: It shows the monthly spread data of coking coal and coke [65]. - **Coal and Coke Spot**: It presents the spot price data of different types of coking coal and coke [68]. - **Coal and Coke Basis**: The coke disk has shown signs of supplementary decline this week, and the basis of the 01 contract has turned positive, reaching a new phased high [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Recent domestic coal production has stabilized, Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, domestic hot metal production is declining, and the weak delivery logic is dragging down near - month contracts with the futures price trading at a discount to the spot price. The market may remain weak in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated weakly, and the prices dropped further during the night session. The position of the coking coal 01 contract is gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic is dragging down the near - month prices, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices回调 in some regions. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are stable for now, but there are expectations of price cuts in the market [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Mysteel research shows that this week, multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lvliang, Shanxi, have shut down, leading to a decline in production. Most of the shutdowns are for a long time, and there is little room for a significant increase in coal mine production in the short term. Entering December, some coal mines say they are close to completing their annual production tasks, face high safety production pressure, and with weakening downstream purchasing willingness, there is a slight increase in self - controlled production cuts by coal mines [3] - Demand: The procurement pace of downstream coal - using enterprises has slowed down recently, leading to inventory accumulation at upstream mines. Coking production is normal, but the profitability of steel mills has shrunk, the blast furnace operating rate has decreased, and the daily average hot metal production has dropped to 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.81 million tons compared to last year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the high-level clearance of Mongolian coal and domestic coal supply guarantee policies have impacted market sentiment. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rebounded, but weakened again during the night session. The positions of the 01 contract are gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month prices, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions回调, and coke prices remaining stable after four rounds of price increases [3] Fundamental Situation - Mysteel research shows that the shutdown of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi this week has led to a decline in coal production. Most of the shutdowns are for a long time, and there is little room for a significant increase in coal production in the short term. In December, some coal mines may reduce production due to the completion of annual production tasks, safety concerns, and weak downstream demand [3] Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons or 5.16%. In October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a relatively high level. In October, Australia exported 1.0469 million tons of coking coal to China, with a significant month-on-month increase. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal decreased slightly in October compared to September [4] Later Concerns - Monitor the changes in steel mill blast furnace start-up rates and coal mine复产 situations [4]