1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ➢ 节前对于原料的补库操作已经开启，目前现货需求支撑相对偏强。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 阅兵后国内上游产量迅速恢复，蒙煤甘其毛都和策克口岸维持高位通关量，现实供给边际近一周变化较小。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外降息如期宣布，盘面计价此前已较为充分，靴子落地后影响有限；国内宏观预期在中美元首通话后再次走强，对黑色估值形 成一定支撑。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 从基本面来看，供需边际双强，宏观层面亦有国内强预期支撑，短期估值或延续偏强震荡。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | FW原煤872.52（+11.45） | 独立焦化厂日均66.72（-0.04） | | | FW精煤450 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand sides of coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental protection and production restriction policies in Tangshan, the upward movement of the futures market is somewhat weak, and it will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia plan to raise coke prices next week due to rising costs [3] - Recently, due to the severe air quality situation in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to September 30th. The production restriction is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is not clear [3] Steel Mill Data - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons, and there is no overall production reduction in steel mills [3] Coal Mine Conditions - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production reduction, there is still a small increase in production in major coal - producing areas in the short term, and the market will remain strong before the festival [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation has fully priced in the supply recovery, and the market will fluctuate repeatedly [3]. - After the parade, the upstream production in China quickly recovered, and the customs clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained at a high level, resulting in a relatively large month - on - month increase in overall supply [5]. - The market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectations, and the risk appetite in domestic and international capital markets remains relatively strong, providing some macro - level support for commodity valuations [5]. - Although the actual supply - demand situation has eased after the parade, the previous strong consensus has been fully reflected in the market. Currently, the market still has strong support for future raw material demand expectations, and combined with the rapidly recovering blast furnace hot metal production, the short - term raw material valuation may have some support [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: FW raw coal production was 861.07 million tons (+43.76 million tons), FW clean coal production was 442.45 million tons (+23.31 million tons); independent coking plants' daily average production was 66.76 million tons (+2.44 million tons), and steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average production was 46.6 million tons (+0.88 million tons) [7]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production was 240.55 million tons (+11.71 million tons) [7]. - **Inventory**: MS total coal inventory decreased by 58.1 million tons, independent coking plants' coal inventory decreased by 36.5 million tons, mine raw coal inventory decreased by 1.6 million tons, mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.6 million tons, steel mill coking inventory decreased by 2.0 million tons, and port coal inventory decreased by 4.4 million tons, while FW port inventory increased by 23.3 million tons; MS total coke inventory increased by 11.0 million tons, independent coking plants' coke inventory increased by 1.3 million tons, steel mill inventory increased by 9.6 million tons, and port coke inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [7]. - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal was 404 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 35 yuan/ton (-29 yuan/ton) [7]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt price of Meng 5 coal in Tangshan was 1099 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1525 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weekly**: The 523 - sample mine raw coal production and clean coal production showed certain trends, and the customs clearance volume at Mongolian coal ports such as Ganqimaodu, Manzhouli, and Ceke also had different levels of performance [10][12][17]. - **Monthly**: The production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal had different trends in different months from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - **Inventory** - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 5.70 million tons week - on - week to 199.77 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 1.45 million tons week - on - week to 124.96 million tons [27]. - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 271.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.38 million tons [29]. - **Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants were provided, including overall and regional data [32][34]. - **Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their coking plants were provided, including overall and regional data [37]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Capacity Utilization** - **Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises, including different - scale plants and those in different regions, were presented [40]. - **Steel Mill**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants was provided [42]. - **Output** - **Coking Plant**: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises was presented [44]. - **Steel Mill**: The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants was provided [46]. - **Inventory** - **Coking Plant**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants was presented [48]. - **Steel Mill**: The inventory, average available days, and regional inventory data of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants were provided [49][51]. - **All - sample Aggregation**: The total coke inventory and supply - demand difference were presented [54][56]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures** - **Coking Coal Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from September 5 - 12, 2025 were provided [63]. - **Coke Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from September 5 - 12, 2025 were provided [66]. - **Coal and Coke Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 were presented [69]. - **Spot** - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, such as the car - loading prices of different grades of coking coal in different regions and the prices of quasi - first - grade and second - grade coke, were provided [72]. - **Basis** - The basis showed narrow - range fluctuations, and the futures market has been relatively firm recently, preventing the basis from further breaking through the previous high [75]. The basis data of coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 were presented [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - high - level shock; Coal and coke - shock; Rolled steel and screw steel - weak; Glass - shock; Soda ash - shock [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - shock; CSI 300 - upward; CSI 500 - upward; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year treasury bond - shock; 5 - year treasury bond - shock; 10 - year treasury bond - rebound; Gold - high - level shock; Silver - high - level shock [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - range shock; Pulp - weak consolidation; Offset paper - bearish; Edible oils - wide - range shock; Oilseeds and meals - shock; Live pigs - shock and slightly stronger; Rubber - shock; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - shock; MEG - wait - and - see; PR - wait - and - see; PF - shock and consolidation [6][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple industries including black, financial, light industries, etc. It provides investment ratings and detailed analyses of the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors for each product in these industries, guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The Guinean government's requirements boost market sentiment. The daily average pig iron output has recovered to 240,000 tons. Global iron ore shipments have decreased significantly, mainly due to the sharp decline in Brazilian shipments. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - **Coal and coke**: The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills has been lowered. The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation of steel and coal mines and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, while demand has recovered slightly. The short - term sentiment in the black sector has cooled, and coal and coke show a low - level shock trend [2] - **Rolled steel and screw steel**: The fundamentals are weak. The steel industry's stable - growth policy does not restrict steel production, so supply remains high. The demand for building materials has declined, and the total demand is hard to reverse seasonally, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Profits have declined, and the 2601 contract of screw steel is running weakly below the 60 - day line [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may cause short - term fluctuations in the market. The cost of production lines will increase. The spot in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key for the 01 contract lies in the path of cold repair. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] - **Soda ash**: The short - term market has stood above the 60 - day line support, and future attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There was capital inflow in communication equipment and electronic components sectors and outflow in catering, tourism, and pharmaceutical sectors. The element market reform pilot will be carried out, and US CPI data has been released, which affects market sentiment. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Its currency, financial, and commodity attributes all support the price, and the market still has a certain demand for hedging. Although the logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate policy and hedging sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a high - level shock [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased slightly, showing a peak - season but not prosperous situation. The arrival volume is expected to increase this week, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory has been decreasing, and the cost support has weakened. The delivery willingness of the 09 contract has increased. Logs are expected to show a range shock [6] - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has increased, but the profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure. The demand improvement is yet to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to show a weak consolidation [6] - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, but September is the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It should be treated bearishly [6] - **Edible Oils**: The expected increase in the production of US soybeans and Malaysian palm oil has increased the supply pressure. The export tax of Indonesian palm oil has been adjusted, and the import of domestic rapeseed has shrunk. The demand for double - festival stocking is weak. Edible oils are expected to show a wide - range shock [6] - **Oilseeds and Meals**: The market expects a good harvest of US soybeans, and the export has not improved substantially. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal has been accumulating. Oilseeds and meals are expected to show a shock trend [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and the slaughter rate has also increased. With the recovery of the slaughter rhythm, the supply of large pigs has increased, and the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is expected to widen slightly [7] - **Rubber**: The supply in the rubber - producing areas is affected by weather conditions, and the raw material price is high. The demand of tire enterprises has declined slightly, and the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [10] - **PX**: There are concerns about weak US demand and global supply surplus. The supply and demand of PX have both increased, but the short - term supply - demand has weakened, and the price follows the oil price [10] - **PTA**: The cost support is average, the supply has increased, and the demand of downstream polyester factories has rebounded. The supply - demand has improved, and the price follows the cost in the short term [10] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the future arrival volume is not high. The supply pressure has increased, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supports the price [10] - **PR**: Affected by the decline in international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and the demand has also declined. PR is expected to run weakly with the raw materials [10] - **PF**: The cost support is weak, but the orders in the downstream yarn market have improved slightly, and the inventory of short - fiber factories is low. PF is expected to show a shock and consolidation trend [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Weak [2] - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Stock Index Futures/Options (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500)**: Oscillating; CSI 1000: Downward [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds (2 - year, 5 - year)**: Oscillating; 10 - year: Rebounding [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating strongly [4] - **Pulp**: Consolidating [6] - **Logs**: Weakly oscillating [6] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil)**: Oscillating [6] - **Meal (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2)**: Oscillating weakly; Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating strongly [7] - **Rubber**: Oscillating [9] - **PX**: On - hold [9] - **PTA**: Oscillating [9] - **MEG**: On - hold [9] - **PR**: On - hold [9] - **PF**: On - hold [9] 2. Core Views - The steel industry's stable - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, which boosts raw material sentiment. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions and are expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weakening, and the black sector is expected to oscillate weakly. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and it is expected to run weakly. The glass market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. The Shanghai property market's "Shanghai Six Measures" have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily. The bond market aims for stable and healthy development through the cooperation of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - The pulp market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but the rising space of pulp prices may be limited due to over - capacity. The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified, with prices expected to run weakly. The raw material supply of edible oils is relatively loose, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term. The meal market is affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The supply of live pigs is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly next week. The supply of rubber is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, with different trends [7][9]. 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The stable - growth policy of the steel industry boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The "restricted production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment has declined slightly, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure under high port clearance [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The fundamentals are weak. The supply will remain at a relatively high level, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot demand is weak. The rebar 2601 contract is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The spot price in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key lies in the cold - repair path for the 01 contract. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. Different stock indexes have different trends, and sectors such as precious metals and power grids have capital inflows, while sectors such as diversified finance and aerospace and military industry have capital outflows [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Property Market**: The "Shanghai Six Measures" in the Shanghai property market have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily, which is expected to lead the recovery of the property market in first - and second - tier cities [4]. Precious Metals Industry - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports pulp prices, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rise, but the rising space may be limited [6]. - **Logs**: The supply pressure is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified. The spot price is running weakly, and the delivery willingness is weak, with prices expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Edible Oils**: The raw material supply is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil products is increasing. The inventory situation of different oils varies, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Meal**: Affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price is expected to rise slightly next week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the approaching military parade in early September may have an impact on downstream operations [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price follows oil price fluctuations, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved. The MEG supply pressure is increasing, and the PR and PF markets are expected to run weakly [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Raw material demand remains relatively high, but coal mine production cuts are lower than expected, leading to a slight inventory build - up at mines, which drags down the market. In the short term, market sentiment is still volatile, and coal - coke prices will fluctuate [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Aspects Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices oscillated weakly. The 09 contract entered the delivery month, and with weak buy - delivery willingness, the futures price shifted from premium to flat or even discount, pulling down other contract prices. On the spot side, some high - priced coal resources at coal mines had weak sales, and prices were weakly stable. Last week, Hebei coke enterprises started the 8th round of price increase, but major steel mills didn't respond, while some regional steel mills planned price cuts, and the market entered a game period [3] Supply Side (Coal Mines) - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi reduced production intensively. In Lvliang, some coal mines were affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen were stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal production. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal production is likely to increase slightly next week, but before September 3, main production area coal mines will focus on safety production, and some coal mines may have short - term production cuts [3] Demand Side (Steel Mills) - Last week's data showed that steel mills had no obvious production cut actions, and hot metal production remained high. The overall production restriction intensity was weaker than that during the 2019 military parade. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points compared to last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points compared to last year. The daily average hot metal output was 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared to last year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot performance of coal and coke is relatively weak, limiting the upward driving force of futures prices. Although the overall supply increment of upstream is limited, the suppression of coking coal demand and the decline of trading sentiment outweigh the impact of the supply side. This week, coking coal inventory has accumulated significantly at the port end, and coke inventory has not decreased significantly due to supply suppression. Therefore, the coal and coke futures prices have declined towards the spot price. However, there coexist the incremental risk of future supply and the support of high molten iron production downstream. In the short term, the prices of coal and coke may show a volatile and repeated trend [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Affected by previous accident news and upcoming major events, the release of incremental production in coal-producing areas is limited, and the weekly output of raw coal in the FW caliber is basically flat compared with the previous week. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance efficiency of the Ganqimaodu Port has declined, and the number of passing vehicles has dropped from the high level. However, the number of passing vehicles at the Ceke Port has increased significantly compared with the previous week. Therefore, the overall passing volume still remains at a year-on-year high [3] - The daily average output of independent coking plants is 64.52 (-0.93), and the daily average output of steel mills and coking enterprises is 46.09 (-0.64) [8] 3.2 Demand - Affected by major events in the north, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants has dropped sharply recently, and the spot profit of coke has further increased compared with the previous week. The downstream steel mills' production still remains at a relatively high level, providing strong support for the immediate consumption demand of coke and iron ore spot [4] - The molten iron output is 240.13 (-0.62) [8] 3.3 Macro - In August, the manufacturing PMI increased slightly compared with the previous month but still remained below the 50 boom-bust line. Recently, domestic listed entities have concentrated on releasing their semi-annual reports, and the profit performance continues to provide support for the trading sentiment of macro risk appetite. However, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the overpricing of strong macro expectations and the potential risk of a rapid decline in risk appetite [5] 3.4 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 860.45 (+0.02), FW cleaned coal 444.54 (+1.80) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.52 (-0.93), steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.09 (-0.64) | | Demand | Molten iron output 240.13 (-0.62) | Molten iron output 240.13 (-0.62) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +17.3, mine raw coal +1.0, mine cleaned coal +8.0, independent coking -5.1, steel mill coking -0.5, port +13.9, FW port -6.0 | MS total inventory -1.1, independent coking +0.9, steel mill +0.5, port -2.5 | | Profit | Commodity coal 424 (-4) | Average profit of coking enterprises -55 (+32) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1145 | Rizhao quasi-first-grade coke warehouse receipt 1525 | 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of coking coal 2601 was 986.5, a decrease of 33.5 compared with the previous day; the closing price of coking coal 2509 was 1510, a decrease of 15 compared with the previous day [62] - **Coke Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of coke 2509 was 1481, an increase of 102.5 compared with the previous day; the closing price of coke 2601 was 2740, an increase of 1424 compared with the previous day [64] - **Coal and Coke Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 is shown in the report [67] - **Coal and Coke Spot**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are shown in the report [70] - **Coal and Coke Basis**: The spot price performance is relatively stable, the futures price has declined, and the basis of coal and coke has both narrowed [73]