晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤通关高位 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 24 日 逻辑：上周煤焦期价延续震荡下行走势，焦煤领跌，01 合约仓位逐 步向 05 合约转移。期价贴水现货运行，弱交割逻辑拖累近月价格。现货 市场总体弱稳，部分区域煤价回调；焦炭 4 轮提涨后暂稳运行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，上周山西吕梁多座煤矿继续恢复到满产状态，原煤产 量回升明显，陕西延安子长当地交通恢复，涉及煤矿恢复生产，抬升整体 产量数据回升。上周精煤日 ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供给预期调整，估值下修 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内产量小幅环比回升，但或受安检影响，部分地区仍有阶段性短暂停产；蒙煤供应延续高位运行，尤其近期甘其毛都通车辆同 比增量显著。 ◆ 2、需求： ➢ 或受看跌情绪影响，下游针对焦煤的补库兑现有限，但钢厂端开工情况有所反复，铁水产量依然偏高。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 近日海内外宏观风偏显著回调，科技等相关主题的风险资产估值大幅回落，国内估值亦出现显著下修。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 近日发改委关于2026年煤炭长协签订的通知文件显示，对于上下游的销售与采购量长协覆盖比例依然维持着较高要求，市场对 于上游能源生产保供预期和未来的煤炭供给恢复预期进一步加强，需求与宏观面未有显著利多驱动，煤焦估值继续下挫。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 21 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡偏弱，继续领跌黑色金属板块，期价贴水现 货运行，弱交割逻辑拖累近月价格。现货市场总体弱稳，主产地主焦煤价 格回调 40-50 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，本周山西吕梁多座煤矿继续恢复到满产状态，原煤产 量回升明显，陕西延安子长当地交通恢复，涉及煤矿恢复生产，抬升整体 产量数据回升。本周精煤日均产量 75.8 万吨，环比前一周微增 0.1 万吨， 同比下降 3.8 万吨。进口端，上周（11.10-11.15）甘其毛都口岸蒙煤日 均通关量 17.45 万吨，较前一周下降 2.07 万吨，总体仍保持相对高位， 口岸监管区呈现增库趋势。需求端，钢厂利润延续收缩趋势，盈利率降至 40%以下，本周日均铁水产量降至 236.28 万吨，较前一周下降 0.6 万吨， 同比去年增加 0.48 万吨，淡季需求阶段，铁水产量趋于下滑，后期关注 钢厂盈利情况及钢厂生产节奏变化。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：保供政策对市场情绪的冲击逐步在盘面兑现，实际供需变化有 限，后期需求存在季节性压力。焦煤主力合约价格迫近震荡区间 （1100- ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供给预期调整，估值下修 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地部分地区出现一定生产的环比修复，外蒙维持较高的通车量，但更重要的是，市场对于未来冬季的能源生产保供预期有所加 强，供给端出现较大的预期调整。 ◆ 2、需求： ➢ 焦煤成交热度大幅回落，线上竞拍的流拍率同样走高，焦企补库已达到相对健康水平，但下游钢厂高炉开工有所反复。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外方面，美政府关门结束，但整体风偏尚未出现进一步向上突破，海内外尚未出现共振式利好。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 随着发改委再次重申对于能源生产保供的态度，市场对于未来的煤炭供给恢复预期有所加强，叠加前期走低的高炉开工数据， 煤焦的需求空间同样受到一定压制，使得前期较高的煤焦估值近期出现较大回落。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | ...

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月9日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供给叙事支撑，高位震荡 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 北方主产地部分区域仍然由于环保等因素，产量恢复不及预期，国内整体产能利用率环比小幅下降；蒙煤通车再度走高，带动口 岸库存环比回升。 ◆ 2、需求： Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ➢ 焦企兑现一定补库量，独立焦化企业的原料库存出现较大幅度的环比回升；钢厂高炉开工持续下滑，负反馈担忧有所加剧。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 近期政策面相对真空，海内外宏观风偏有所分化，在一定程度上制约了国内风险资产估值的进一步向上突破。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 近期随着下游钢厂开工下滑速度的加快，市场对于分反馈的担忧再起，原料进一步向上的空间或受压制。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | FW原煤848.39（-3.42） | 独立焦化厂日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500 index futures are expected to oscillate, while CSI 1000 index futures are expected to rebound [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and 10 - year treasury bonds are expected to rise [4] - Gold and silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Oils and fats: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Meal: Rebound [6][7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG, PR, PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment is generally warming up, with Sino - US talks and the Fed's potential interest rate cut boosting risk appetite, leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels. However, different industries face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation with high supply and low demand, and the price is mainly affected by factors such as policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by macro - policy expectations and industry supply concerns, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2]. - The steel market has weak domestic demand, and the price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. - The stock index futures/options market has a short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The treasury bond market shows a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - The log market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - The pulp market has weak cost support and poor demand, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - The oils and fats market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - The meal market is affected by weather and supply - demand factors, and is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. - The live pig market has sufficient supply, increasing demand, and is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. - The rubber market has mixed supply and demand factors, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - The PX, PTA, and polyester - related product markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, and different products have different price trends [9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The supply is expected to remain high as Rio Tinto and VALE have room for production increases to meet annual targets, and port arrivals are likely to stay at a high level. The demand is weak, with iron - water production declining and real - estate new construction at a low level. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is mainly affected by policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Driven by macro - policy expectations, the market is concerned about potential demand - side policies. The industry is facing supply concerns, and the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. If steel products continue to weaken, steel mill overhauls may expand, putting pressure on raw materials. The second - round coke price increase has been implemented, and short - term attention should be paid to the resonance of macro and industry expectations [2]. - **Rebar**: The macro - environment is warming up, but the domestic demand for steel is weak, with real - estate new construction at a low level. The price stop - falling depends on whether production reduction of more than 5% can be strictly implemented in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of anti - "involution" policies. The steel market still has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to continue oscillating [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The current market has weak shipments and a strong price - cut atmosphere. The demand is weak, with real - estate completion declining during the peak season, and the inventory of glass factories is increasing. To solve the over - supply problem in the entire industry chain, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and production - reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with some sectors showing capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market trend is slightly upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency, finance, risk - aversion, and commodity attributes. The current market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. Forestry Products - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and demand may weaken. The import volume is seasonally increasing, putting pressure on supply. The port inventory is expected to turn to accumulation. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. The cost support for pulp prices is weakening, and the demand from paper mills is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. There is still supply pressure due to new production capacity in South China. The start - up rate has rebounded, but the market expectation is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia is suppressing the market. The production of palm oil is at the end of the increasing season, and the export volume varies. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia is strong, and the inventory of US soybean oil has decreased. The domestic supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Meals**: The weather in the US Midwest may delay crop harvesting, and the weather in Brazil is favorable for soybean sowing but the sowing rate is low. The La Nina phenomenon brings uncertainties to South American soybean growth. The domestic supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the demand is also rising. The price is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly. The demand has weakened, and the slaughter volume has decreased, leading to a decline in pig prices to near the cost line. The price has rebounded, and the fat - to - standard pig price difference has widened. The demand for pork is increasing with the drop in temperature, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The raw - material output in Yunnan is gradually recovering, but the profit from rubber tapping is negative. The output in Hainan is lower than expected, but the cost of local processing plants has decreased. The price of cup rubber in Thailand has risen, and the inventory in Vietnam is low. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory of natural rubber is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX, PTA, and Polyester - related Products**: The PX market has short - term supply - demand growth but medium - term pressure. The PTA market has a weakening supply - demand situation and uncertain cost support. Different polyester products have different price trends affected by factors such as supply, demand, and raw - material prices [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term coal and coke supply increases while demand decreases, both are at relatively high levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of the increase in imported coal on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by changes in macro - factors, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, and the night - session prices rebounded slightly with relatively intense overall fluctuations. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. Some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price increases, but mainstream coke enterprises have not yet increased prices and are still in the game process [3]. - **Import Data**: China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, imports were 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline continuing to narrow. In September, imports of Mongolian coal were 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, imports of Mongolian coal were 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline significantly narrowing. The continuous increase in coking coal imports will put some pressure on coal prices [2][3]. - **High - frequency Data**: Since the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance after the National Day, the daily average coal clearance volume at Ganqimaodu is 151,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons compared to September. The impact of changes in Mongolian coal imports needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - **Later Focus**: Concerns include changes in steel mill blast furnace start - up and coal mine resumption of production [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Coal and Coke Weekly View [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke may continue weak and volatile due to repeated macro - expectations [3] - After pre - holiday restocking, post - holiday demand is weak and trading atmosphere is cold [4] - The fundamentals of coal and coke show a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively small marginal contradictions, and the current disk valuation may be dominated by macro factors [5] Group 4: Coal and Coke Fundamentals Data Supply - For coal, FW raw coal is 836.67 (- 39.93), FW clean coal is 426.31 (- 25.64); for coke, independent coking plants' daily average is 66.12 (+ 0.04), and steel mills' coking plants' daily average is 46.38 (- 0.16) [7] Demand - Iron and steel water production is 241.54 (- 0.27) for both coal and coke [7] Inventory - MS total inventory for coal is - 78.8, with various changes in different sectors; for coke, MS total inventory is - 10.1, independent coking + 1.5 [7] Profit - Commodity coal profit is 466 (+ 14), and coking enterprises' average profit is 9 (+ 45) [7] Warehouse Receipt - Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1176, and Rizhao standard first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1568 [7] Group 5: Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - Weekly and monthly production data are presented in multiple charts, including 523 sample mine production rates, FW raw coal and clean coal production, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume [10][14][16] Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, sample mine raw coal inventory increased by 2.72 tons to 165.05 tons, and clean coal inventory increased by 6.48 tons to 111.16 tons [27] - Port inventory: This week, coking coal port inventory is 294.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.8 tons [29] - Coking plant inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented in different regions and production capacities [32][34][36] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory and available days are presented for 247 steel enterprises and in different regions [37] Group 6: Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including different production capacity levels and regions [40][42] - Production: Data of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are presented, including daily average production [44][46] Inventory - Coking plant inventory: Data of full - sample and 230 independent coking plants are presented [48] - Steel mill inventory: Data on inventory, available days, and regional breakdown are presented [49][51][52] - Total inventory: Coke total inventory data are presented [54] Demand - Iron production data are provided, and the supply - demand difference is analyzed [56][57] Profit - Coke profit data, including disk profit and average profit of independent coking enterprises, are presented [58][59][60] Group 7: Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Futures - Coking coal futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [63] - Coke futures: Data of 2601 and 2605 contracts, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are presented [65] Month - spread - Month - spread data of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [68] Spot - Spot price data of coking coal and coke are presented [71] Basis - The coking coal spot has a premium over the 01 contract, and basis data are presented [74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].