期货研究报告 2026年02月24日 周报 双焦：市场交投偏淡，期价震荡偏弱 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：春节作为国内工业市场传统消费淡季，炼焦煤市场也如期进入"休整期"。受假 期民营煤矿停工停产、公路物流停滞及市场参与者休假等多重因素影响，春节期间国内炼焦煤市场呈现明显 的供需两弱格局，价格缺乏明确单边驱动，整体维持震荡偏弱运行态势，市场交投氛围降至阶段性低位。 展望：预计节后开工恢复偏缓，由于焦煤价格领先下跌，焦炭价格持稳，节后钢厂或有提降焦炭计划， 总体供需基本平衡。库存方面，自去年11月以来，口岸和煤矿库存都出现明显增长，节后如果下游终端需求 恢复偏缓，将造成上游库存压力加大，对于煤焦价格偏利空。综上所述，预计节后煤焦市场将稳中偏弱运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 ...

期货研究报告 1、市场回顾与展望：本周焦煤、焦炭市场冲高回落运行。焦企经过首轮涨价利润修复，整体开工平稳。 区域内煤矿生产整体稳定，随着春节临近，部分煤矿陆续开始停产放假，产量有所收缩，而下游焦企冬储补 库基本结束，采购积极性转弱；下游方面，由于钢厂利润情况不佳，且下游工地陆续停工，钢材成交量明显 缩减，市场供需压力增大，铁水复产进度缓慢。 展望：国内煤矿临近假期产量将逐渐下滑，进口煤预计同样受春节影响而保持回落，反观其需求端仍有 支撑，预计基本面将保持健康，盘面受资金情绪影响预计宽幅震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2399.35 | 2335.53 | 63.82 | 2.73% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 976.22 | 960.65 | 15.57 | 1.62% | 周度 | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 228 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, news of Indonesian coal exports disturbed the market, but the impact was short - lived, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to rise and then fall. With domestic coal mines starting to shut down for the holiday, daily production has significantly declined. Coal mine clean coal inventories are being depleted, and downstream enterprises are restocking as needed [4]. - Indonesia has denied the market's rumor of production cuts. In the short term, about 6.16 million tons of monthly imported Indonesian coal are affected, accounting for 15.1% of China's monthly imports, but the actual impact is limited. In the long term, if Indonesia cuts production, China can make up for the gap by increasing domestic production and imports from Russia and Mongolia, but the cost - effectiveness of Indonesian coal is hard to replace. Future attention should be paid to the RKAB approval results [5]. - With only one week left until the Lunar New Year, downstream pre - holiday restocking is almost over. As the impact of the news weakens, the futures market has been reducing positions and declining since Thursday. With relatively limited supply - demand contradictions, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next week, and a cautious bearish attitude is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Coking Coal Market 3.1.1. Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Meng 5 | Tangshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1430 | 1203 | | Meng 5 | Inner Mongolia | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1230 | 1225 | | Anze Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1570 | 1310 | | Gujiao Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1491 | 1231 | | Pingmei No.1 | Pingdingshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1630 | 1145 | | Shan Jiao Rizhao No.1 | Rizhao | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1600 | 1150 | | Xiang Jiao No.1 | Linfen | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1400 | 1120 | | Kaijia No.1 | Jiexiu | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1500 | 1200 | [10] 3.1.2. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 72 | 2 | - 5.85% | - 99 | - 162 | | May | 170 | - 11 | 13.82% | 145 | - 23 | | September | 94 | - 9 | 7.64% | 67 | - 60 | [12] 3.1.3. Coking Coal Supply - **Mines**: The average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9253 million tons, a decrease of 52,900 tons compared to the previous week; the average daily output of clean coal was 754,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to the previous week [19]. - **Coal Washeries**: The average daily output of sample coal washeries was 263,100 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 35.54%, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the previous week [22]. 3.1.4. Coking Coal Imports - In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, imports from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [23][26]. | Country | As of 2025 - 12 - 31 | Cumulative Value | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mongolia | 672 | 6007 | 7.6% | 59.1% | 5.8% | | Russia | 360 | 3276 | 31.3% | 55.0% | 8.4% | | Canada | 110 | 1080 | 109.9% | 8.4% | 19.8% | | Australia | 178 | 886 | 109.3% | 10.5% | - 14.0% | | Other Countries | 57 | 613 | 54.3% | - 62.8% | - 60.6% | | Total | 1377 | 11863 | 28.3% | 28.6% | - 2.7% | [25] 3.1.5. Coking Coal Auction Data | Coking Coal Auction Data | 2026 - 01 - 30 | 2026 - 01 - 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Listing Volume (10,000 tons) | 154.43 | 137.735 | 16.70 | | Transaction Rate (%) | 70.22 | 88.02 | - 17.8 | | Unsold Rate (%) | 29.78 | 11.98 | 17.8 | [29] 3.2. Coke Market 3.2.1. Coke Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1480 | 1736 | | Rizhao Port Dry - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1680 | 1725 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Pengfei Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1530 | 1700 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Hengfeng Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1740 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Shanxi Jinhui) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1690 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Zhongjin Taihang) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1310 | 1697 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Jiexiu Changsheng) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1330 | 1719 | | Handan Dry - Quenched (Xinsheng Coal Chemical) | Hebei | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1550 | 1650 | [39] 3.2.2. Coking Profit | Region | 2026 - 01 - 29 | 2026 - 01 - 22 | Weekly Change | Same - Period Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | - 55 | - 66 | 11 | - 28 | | Shanxi | - 41 | - 51 | 10 | - 41 | | Hebei | 0 | - 11 | 11 | - 11 | | Inner Mongolia | - 92 | - 103 | 11 | 4 | | Shandong | 2 | - 8 | 10 | - 1 | [41] 3.2.3. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 262 | - 1 | - 17.68% | - 258 | - 174 | | May | - 69 | 39 | - 4.63% | - 56 | - 129 | | September | - 135 | 41 | - 9.09% | - 122 | - 164 | [44] 3.2.4. Coke Inventory Distribution | Coke Inventory Distribution | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 2026 - 01 - 30 | Weekly MoM | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel Mills | 6923,800 tons | 6781,900 tons | 141,900 tons | 0.21% | | Steel Mill Inventory Usable Days | 12.76 days | 12.54 days | 0.22 days | - 3.8% | | Independent Coking Enterprises | 827,400 tons | 843,900 tons | - 16,500 tons | - 47.18% | | Ports | 2.011 million tons | 1.98065 million tons | 30,350 tons | 13.49% | | Tianjin Port | 820,000 tons | 770,000 tons | 50,000 tons | 39.0% | | Qingdao Port | 740,000 tons | 780,000 tons | - 40,000 tons | 4.23% | | Rizhao | 450,000 tons | 430,000 tons | 20,000 tons | - 4.26% | | Total | 9.7622 million tons | 9.60645 million tons | 155,750 tons | - 4.74% | [56]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 焦炭方面：震荡 作者： 邢亚文 市场分析 截止上周五收盘，焦炭2605合约收于1683元/吨，焦煤2605合约收于1130.5元/吨。 供给方面：本周Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为72.20%，增0.34%；焦炭日均产量63.14万 吨，增0.3万吨； 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率79.53%，环比上周增加0.53个百分点，同比去年增加1.55 个百分点 ；高炉炼铁产能利用率85.69%，环比上周增加0.22个百分点 ，同比去年减少0.07个百分点； 钢厂盈利率39.39%，环比上周维持不变，同比去年减少12.13个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.58万吨，环 比上周增加0.60万吨，同比去年增加0.14万吨。 库存方面：根据Mysteel调研数据，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存为693.74万吨，环比增加15.55万吨。247家 钢厂焦煤库存为835.32万吨，环比增加15.54万吨。独立焦企全样本焦煤总库存为1291.87万吨，环比增 加57.08万吨。 综合来看：焦炭方面，因需求改善与供应受限 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market remained stable. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coking enterprises improved, and their enthusiasm for production increased. Some steel mills with low inventories still had demand for coke procurement. Currently, coking enterprises are actively shipping, and there is no obvious contradiction between coke supply and demand. Entering February, the coking coal market will enter the Spring Festival holiday period, with market activity dropping to zero. Mines will be on holiday and stop production, and traders will close, leading the market to gradually turn cold. The fundamentals of coking coal remain healthy, and prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival [2] Summary According to the Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market remained stable. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coking enterprises improved, and their enthusiasm for production increased. Some steel mills with low inventories still had demand for coke procurement. Currently, coking enterprises are actively shipping, and there is no obvious contradiction between coke supply and demand. Entering February, the coking coal market will enter the Spring Festival holiday period, with market activity dropping to zero. Mines will be on holiday and stop production, and traders will close, leading the market to gradually turn cold. The fundamentals of coking coal remain healthy, and prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The total inventory of coking coal was 23.3553 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 652,000 tons or 2.87%. The total inventory of coke was 9.6065 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 215,000 tons or 2.29%. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 2.2798 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,200 tons or 0.05%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was -55 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan/ton or -16.67% [4] Futures Market Review - The report provides a 5-day intraday chart of the main contracts of coking coal and coke, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [6] Spot Market Review - The report provides charts of the average price of various coking coal types, the self-pickup price of Mongolian coking coal, the summary price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke, the first-grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel for metallurgical coke, the basis of coking coal, and the basis of coke, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [8][11][15] Fundamental Data - The report provides charts of the daily average output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [19][21][24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it discusses various performance metrics and market conditions that may influence investment decisions [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a cautious approach to production amid weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday activity [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with external prices driven higher by export policies while domestic prices face downward pressure, leading to a current loss of 37.9 yuan per ton for steel mills [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material costs on financial performance [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has decreased by 2.0% this week, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, although the performance of general steel stocks has remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with increasing iron ore imports and low steel inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price differential has decreased by 2.9 yuan, indicating financial strain on steel mills [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has shown a decline, reflecting broader market trends [1][11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased, with a total of 278.33 million tons, down 2.82 million tons week-on-week [2][12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 yuan per ton [3][13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate has increased slightly to 469,500 tons, with iron ore prices showing mixed trends [4][14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [4][14]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the recovery speed of coal mines and its impact on coke prices post-holiday [3][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. At the end of the week, the mainstream market planned to increase coke prices, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 19. Supported by costs, this price increase is likely to be implemented next week [1]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage efforts are increasing, and coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamental situation of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and spot prices still have upward momentum, but the futures market is affected by other varieties in the sector and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. The planned price increase of coke in the mainstream market is likely to be implemented next week. In the future, the fundamental situation of coking coal will improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum and the futures market expected to fluctuate [1]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Coking coal total inventory was 2233.95 million tons, up 64.74 million tons (2.98%) from the previous week [3]. - Coke total inventory was 920.21 million tons, up 4.31 million tons (0.47%) from the previous week [3]. - Steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 228.01 million tons, down 1.49 million tons (-0.65%) from the previous week [3]. - Independent coking enterprises' profit per ton of coke was - 65 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (44.44%) from the previous week [3].

2025年12月22日 周报 双焦：三轮提降落地，盘面超跌反弹 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内焦煤、焦炭市场延续偏弱运行格局，第三轮提降50-55元/吨，预计下周 一执行。受重污染天气影响，部分焦企进一步限产，短期焦炭供应仍呈现收窄状态；下游钢厂检修居多，尚 未开始大范围补库，整体库存略有增长；市场成交仍偏冷清。 展望：整体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2127.45 | 2139.45 | -12 | -0.56% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 900.48 | 903.8 | -3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market showed a weak trend. The production of coal mines at the origin was stable, the supply of coking coal was sufficient, and prices were under downward pressure. The second - round price cut of coke was implemented. Coke - steel enterprises slowed down the procurement of raw coal and replenished stocks as needed, with raw coal inventories at a medium - low level. The fundamentals of coking coal have marginally improved. With the settlement of deliveries and the gradual start of winter storage and replenishment by mid - and downstream enterprises, market sentiment will gradually recover, and the futures valuation is expected to repair upward [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market review**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market were weak this week. Coal mine production at the origin was stable, coking coal supply was sufficient, and prices declined under pressure. The second - round price cut of coke was implemented, and coke - steel enterprises slowed down raw coal procurement, with raw coal inventories at a medium - low level [2] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of coking coal have marginally improved. After the settlement of deliveries and the start of winter storage and replenishment by mid - and downstream enterprises, market sentiment will gradually recover, and the futures valuation is expected to repair upward [2] 3.2 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 2139.45 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 35.48 million tons (1.69%); the total coke inventory was 903.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.81 million tons (2.36%) [4] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 229.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.1 million tons (- 1.33%) [4] - **Profit**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton (46.67%) [4] 3.3 Futures Market Review - The report presents the 5 - day intraday charts of coking coal and coke's main contracts, but no specific analysis is provided [6] 3.4 Spot Market Review - The report shows the aggregated average prices of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal, the aggregated price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke, the first - class arrival price of metallurgical coke at Hebei Iron and Steel, the basis of coking coal, and the basis of coke, but no specific analysis is provided [8][11][14] 3.5 Fundamental Data - The report shows data on the daily average production of clean coal in mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the coking coal inventory of steel mills, independent coke enterprises, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory for steel mills and independent coke enterprises, the daily average coke production of steel mills and independent coke enterprises, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of steel mills, independent coke enterprises, and ports, the available days of coke inventory for steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [17][19][23]

双焦：蒙古国推动增加煤炭出口，市场预期偏弱 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月12日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 逻辑分析 近期盘面焦煤延续下跌趋势，现货价格表现亦偏弱，价格下跌为主，市场情绪较差。当前蒙煤通关车次处于高位，同时蒙 古国政府仍在积极推动扩大煤炭出口，通关车次还有继续增加的可能。在蒙煤增量预期的冲击下，国内煤承压下行，资金 和情绪则放大了盘面的波动。虽然年底国内部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，但该减量会被进口蒙煤补充，焦煤供需 改善有限。预计近期盘面双焦延续弱势运行，关注后续下游冬储补库进度及蒙煤实际通关量。 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 单边：延续偏弱运行，谨慎者空单可逐步止盈，关注后续下游冬储补库进度及蒙煤实际通关量。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUT ...