2025年12月22日 周报 双焦：三轮提降落地，盘面超跌反弹 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内焦煤、焦炭市场延续偏弱运行格局，第三轮提降50-55元/吨，预计下周 一执行。受重污染天气影响，部分焦企进一步限产，短期焦炭供应仍呈现收窄状态；下游钢厂检修居多，尚 未开始大范围补库，整体库存略有增长；市场成交仍偏冷清。 展望：整体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2127.45 | 2139.45 | -12 | -0.56% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 900.48 | 903.8 | -3. ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月15日 周报 双焦：二轮提降落地，基本面边际改善 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格偏弱运行。产地端煤矿生产稳定，炼焦煤供应充 足，价格承压下行，市场看跌情绪浓厚。焦炭第二轮降价落地，焦钢企业对原料煤采购节奏放缓，按需补库， 原料煤库存处于中低位水平。 展望：焦煤基本面边际有所改善，后续随着交割尘埃落定及中下游冬储补库逐步开启，市场情绪将逐渐 修复，届时盘面估值有望向上修复。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2139.45 | 2103.97 | 35.48 | 1.69% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 903.8 | 882.99 | 20.81 | 2.36% | 周度 | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 ...

双焦：蒙古国推动增加煤炭出口，市场预期偏弱 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月12日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 逻辑分析 近期盘面焦煤延续下跌趋势，现货价格表现亦偏弱，价格下跌为主，市场情绪较差。当前蒙煤通关车次处于高位，同时蒙 古国政府仍在积极推动扩大煤炭出口，通关车次还有继续增加的可能。在蒙煤增量预期的冲击下，国内煤承压下行，资金 和情绪则放大了盘面的波动。虽然年底国内部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，但该减量会被进口蒙煤补充，焦煤供需 改善有限。预计近期盘面双焦延续弱势运行，关注后续下游冬储补库进度及蒙煤实际通关量。 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 单边：延续偏弱运行，谨慎者空单可逐步止盈，关注后续下游冬储补库进度及蒙煤实际通关量。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUT ...

双焦：首轮提降落地，盘面先扬后抑 期货研究报告 2025年12月08日 周报 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格弱稳运行。1日河北等地主流钢厂对焦炭价格招标 下调，降幅为50-55元/吨，1日起执行，焦炭首轮提降落地。目前焦化厂利润回升，基本处于盈利状态，各 焦企保持正常开工节奏，低库存运行；原料端焦煤价格近期持续下跌，竞拍流拍较多，焦炭失去成本支撑。 展望：整体上，现货悲观情绪不改，盘面则受资金博弈影响，小幅反弹后急速回落。预计12月中下旬冬 储补库开启后将对基本面和情绪形成改善，盘面当前估值水平过低，情绪扭转后估值将逐渐修复。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2103.97 | 2106.1 | -2.13 | -0.10% | 周度 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal and coke markets showed an overall pattern of weak fluctuations, with intensified gaming between supply and demand sides. Affected by the increasing bearish sentiment in the market, speculative demand significantly weakened, leading to a large accumulation of inventory in upstream mines and coal washing plants, and prices continued to bottom out. There is a strong atmosphere of expecting a price drop in coke, and steel mills may officially propose the first round of coke price cuts next week. - Currently, the spot sentiment is poor, the fundamentals have slightly deteriorated marginally, and both the spot and futures prices continue to be under pressure. However, the current valuation level of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue. There are strong expectations for mid - and downstream winter storage replenishment in the future, and there is still support at the bottom of the spot price. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The coking coal and coke markets were weak and fluctuating this week. Due to bearish sentiment, speculative demand weakened, and upstream inventory accumulated. Coke price cuts are expected next week. - Despite current pressure, low futures valuation, continued low coal mine production, and winter storage expectations suggest the market will likely oscillate. [1] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The total coking coal inventory was 2106.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.67 million tons (-0.97%). - The total coke inventory was 884.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05 million tons (0.46%). - The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons (-0.68%). - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton (142.11%). [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory, and the iron ore and coking coal and coke markets have cost support. The macro - environment has slightly improved risk appetite, and the third round of the fifth batch of central ecological environmental protection inspections has been launched, which may affect steel production [3][4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar demand slowed down, and the decline in inventory increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils changed little, and the decrease in production slowed down the increase in total inventory. The end of the US government "shutdown" slightly improved market risk appetite, and prices were supported at low levels. Futures fluctuated, and most spot prices remained stable [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, and futures prices of related contracts also generally rose. The long and short positions of some contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads of some products changed. Rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [10]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. Rebar blast furnace and electric furnace production decreased. The blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [13][15][17]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils improved compared with the previous period [27]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions increased [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased more, and both factory and social inventories declined. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down, with social inventory stable and factory inventory rising slightly [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land improved compared with the previous period. In the automotive market, in October 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal increased month - on - month, and the port clearance volume continued to increase [58]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to rise, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises increased slightly [63]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level [70]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of coking plants decreased slightly. The port inventory of coke decreased, and the inventory of coking plants remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continued [96]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar increased slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore increased [102][106].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific overall industry investment rating is provided, but the strategy for steel is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Iron Ore: The strategy is "oscillating weakly" [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate" [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific investment strategy is provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel market has low - price and high - volume trading, with steel prices rebounding slightly. However, due to weak real estate, potential weakening of domestic demand in infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter, and the need to exchange external demand with low prices, further production cuts are needed for inventory reduction [1] - Iron ore prices are under downward pressure due to falling steel mill profitability, reduced iron - water production, and a significant increase in iron ore arrivals [3] - Driven by the sharp rise in thermal coal prices, coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. The supply of coking coal and coke is tight, and the demand shows certain resilience [5][6] - Thermal coal prices continue to rise. The downstream non - power demand is strong, and prices are expected to be firm in the short term due to winter storage expectations and difficulty in inventory accumulation [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract is 3037 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract is 3256 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume of steel is average, with the national building materials trading volume at 11.03 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous day and a good week - on - week performance [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The weekly output of the five major steel products is 856.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.55 tons. All product outputs have declined. The real estate remains weak, and there is pressure on the domestic demand of infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter. The inventory reduction of the five major steel products has slowed down [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices are oscillating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. The trading volume of national main - port iron ore is 115.4 tons, a 6.07% increase compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot is 158.9 tons, a 6.00% increase. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous period, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.83%, a 5.19% decrease [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The apparent demand for steel has dropped significantly this week, and the steel mill profitability rate has further decreased. The iron ore arrival volume has increased significantly, and the iron - water output has decreased, resulting in reduced demand [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the rise in thermal coal prices and market sentiment, the coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating and rebounding. The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has recovered, and the trading volume is average [5][6] - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, the domestic supply recovery is slow, and imported coal is abundant, with a slightly loose overall situation but a lower inventory accumulation rate than last year. The demand is supported by the successful third - round price increase of coke. For coke, the supply is tight due to profit losses, and the demand shows certain resilience after the third - round price increase [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate". There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are rising, and the non - power demand is strong. At the ports, the trading volume of market coal is low, but traders are reluctant to sell due to rising coal mine prices and low port inventories. The price of imported coal is also rising [7] - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, prices are oscillating and rising due to tight supply in production areas. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose, but with the approaching of the winter heating season and strong non - power demand, attention should be paid to overall consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the coking coal market was generally strong, with both supply and demand showing signs of recovery, but policy and sentiment disturbances increased market volatility. Coking coal is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5]. - Last week, the coke market oscillated strongly, and the second round of spot price increases was initiated. Coke is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of policy expectations and changes in demand at the finished product end [6]. Summaries by Sections Market Views Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The开工 rate of 523 sample mines and the daily average output of clean coal increased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of 314 coal washing plants also increased slightly. However, due to safety inspections and over - production checks, the supply recovery space is limited [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained stable at a high level, and the available days of coking coal for steel mills and coking plants increased slightly, indicating that rigid demand is still supported [5]. - Inventory: Except for a significant decline in port inventory, mines, coal washing plants, and downstream sectors all saw inventory accumulation, and downstream sectors still have some inventory replenishment momentum [5]. - Summary: In the short term, the fundamental contradictions of coking coal are not significant. The expectation of supply contraction and winter storage demand jointly support prices, but the upside is still restricted by the profit of finished products and the effect of policy implementation [5]. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke for coking plants returned below the break - even line, and the production willingness of coking enterprises decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate and output decreased month - on - month [6]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained stable, the inventory usage cycle of steel mills decreased slightly, and rigid demand was resilient [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreased, the port inventory remained stable, and the overall explicit inventory decreased, indicating that the market supply - demand structure is approaching a tight balance [6]. - Summary: In the short term, the coke fundamentals are tight. The second round of price increases is likely to be implemented, but the future continuous increase space may be limited. Coke is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate at a high level [6]. Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, and completion areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, but no specific analysis is provided [8][11][15][17] Coking Coal Supply - demand Tracking - Coking coal spot prices have risen [21]. - Mines have shifted from destocking to stockpiling, and the inventory of coal washing plants has gradually recovered [34]. - The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a high level [47]. Coke Supply - demand Tracking - The second round of price increases for coke has been initiated, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation rhythm [55]. - Due to cost increases, the profit per ton of coke for coking enterprises has fallen below the break - even line [59]. - Independent coking plants have slightly reduced their inventory, and steel mills have shifted from previous inventory replenishment to destocking [69]. - The port coke inventory has stabilized [73].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market, particularly coking coal and coke, is experiencing a phase of price adjustment after significant increases, but supply constraints are expected to support a bullish outlook in the short term [3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - After a significant price surge, coking coal and coke prices have seen a decline since mid-August, with the main coking coal futures contract dropping by 14% from its recent peak [6][11]. - The current market for coking coal shows a stable price trend, with main transaction prices in Shanxi and Shandong regions reported at 1400-1450 CNY/ton and 960-990 CNY/ton respectively [8][11]. - The seventh round of price increases for coke has commenced, with plans to raise prices by 50-75 CNY/ton depending on the type of coke [11][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to policies aimed at reducing production capacity and inspections of coal mine capacities, leading to a potential tightening of supply in the coal industry [8][13]. - Current operating rates for independent coking enterprises are at 74.65%, slightly down from the previous period, indicating a slight reduction in supply [13]. - Steel mills are currently experiencing decent profitability, but there are indications of reduced purchasing activity, particularly in Hebei province, which may affect demand for coke [13][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coking coal market will maintain a strong performance in the short term due to supply constraints and low inventory levels at both coking plants and steel mills [12][14]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of price stability or slight increases in the near future, despite potential pressures from environmental regulations and production limits [12][14].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply of domestic coal is expected to be constrained in August, and the supply ceiling effect is obvious, making it difficult to return to high - level production. The recovery of domestic coal supply is slow, and the production has decreased week - on - week. Although the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels, it can only partially make up for the reduction of domestic coal. - The demand for coking coal and coke remains strong. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has increased slightly, and the iron - making water production has only slightly decreased. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased. - The inventory of coking coal and coke continues to decline. The inventory of coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills has different trends, but the overall inventory is decreasing. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong, and the strategy is to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy** - **Supply**: Last week, the coal mine start - up rate dropped significantly, and the supply recovery was slow, with production decreasing week - on - week. In August, it is difficult for domestic coal production to return to high levels due to over - production inspections and stricter safety supervision. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels. On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons. The profitability of steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week. After the fifth round of price increases for coke, the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed, and the sixth round may be implemented soon. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of coal mines continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. On August 8, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 476.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.78 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants decreased, while that of steel mills continued to rise. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills for coke continued to decline, and the port coke inventory increased slightly, with the total coke inventory continuing to decline [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Last week, there were frequent disturbances on the coal mine supply side. Under the influence of policies, domestic coal production will be restricted, and the supply contraction expectation has boosted market sentiment. The rigid demand for coking coal and coke remains strong, and speculative demand has increased after the price increase. It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong [4]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. **Industrial Chain Structure** - **Futures and Spot Markets**: The report presents multiple charts of coking coal and coke futures contracts, including the DCE jm2509, jm2601, j2509, j2601 contracts, as well as the price trends of coking coal and coke spot, and the price differences between contracts [9][14][19][26]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of coking coal (including washing plants, mines, ports, steel mills, and coking enterprises) and coke (including coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports) from 2021 to 2025 [33][42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Coking Coal Import**: Displays the monthly import volume of coking coal from the world, Mongolia, Australia, and Russia to China from 2021 to 2025 [52]. - **Washing Coal Production**: Presents the start - up rate and daily average output of 110 washing plants from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - **Coking Production**: On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [61]. - **Steel Mill Coke Production**: The current capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 86.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%, and the daily average output is 46.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons [64]. - **Demand Side**: - **Hot Metal and Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%, and the daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons [68]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The report shows the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 to 2025 [69][71]. - **Long - Process and Short - Process**: Displays the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar from 2021 to 2025 [77]. - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton**: As of August 8, 2025, the profitability of 247 steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week [82].