Core Viewpoint - The coal market, particularly coking coal and coke, is experiencing a phase of price adjustment after significant increases, but supply constraints are expected to support a bullish outlook in the short term [3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - After a significant price surge, coking coal and coke prices have seen a decline since mid-August, with the main coking coal futures contract dropping by 14% from its recent peak [6][11]. - The current market for coking coal shows a stable price trend, with main transaction prices in Shanxi and Shandong regions reported at 1400-1450 CNY/ton and 960-990 CNY/ton respectively [8][11]. - The seventh round of price increases for coke has commenced, with plans to raise prices by 50-75 CNY/ton depending on the type of coke [11][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to policies aimed at reducing production capacity and inspections of coal mine capacities, leading to a potential tightening of supply in the coal industry [8][13]. - Current operating rates for independent coking enterprises are at 74.65%, slightly down from the previous period, indicating a slight reduction in supply [13]. - Steel mills are currently experiencing decent profitability, but there are indications of reduced purchasing activity, particularly in Hebei province, which may affect demand for coke [13][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coking coal market will maintain a strong performance in the short term due to supply constraints and low inventory levels at both coking plants and steel mills [12][14]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of price stability or slight increases in the near future, despite potential pressures from environmental regulations and production limits [12][14].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply of domestic coal is expected to be constrained in August, and the supply ceiling effect is obvious, making it difficult to return to high - level production. The recovery of domestic coal supply is slow, and the production has decreased week - on - week. Although the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels, it can only partially make up for the reduction of domestic coal. - The demand for coking coal and coke remains strong. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has increased slightly, and the iron - making water production has only slightly decreased. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased. - The inventory of coking coal and coke continues to decline. The inventory of coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills has different trends, but the overall inventory is decreasing. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong, and the strategy is to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy** - **Supply**: Last week, the coal mine start - up rate dropped significantly, and the supply recovery was slow, with production decreasing week - on - week. In August, it is difficult for domestic coal production to return to high levels due to over - production inspections and stricter safety supervision. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels. On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons. The profitability of steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week. After the fifth round of price increases for coke, the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed, and the sixth round may be implemented soon. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of coal mines continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. On August 8, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 476.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.78 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants decreased, while that of steel mills continued to rise. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills for coke continued to decline, and the port coke inventory increased slightly, with the total coke inventory continuing to decline [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Last week, there were frequent disturbances on the coal mine supply side. Under the influence of policies, domestic coal production will be restricted, and the supply contraction expectation has boosted market sentiment. The rigid demand for coking coal and coke remains strong, and speculative demand has increased after the price increase. It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong [4]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. **Industrial Chain Structure** - **Futures and Spot Markets**: The report presents multiple charts of coking coal and coke futures contracts, including the DCE jm2509, jm2601, j2509, j2601 contracts, as well as the price trends of coking coal and coke spot, and the price differences between contracts [9][14][19][26]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of coking coal (including washing plants, mines, ports, steel mills, and coking enterprises) and coke (including coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports) from 2021 to 2025 [33][42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Coking Coal Import**: Displays the monthly import volume of coking coal from the world, Mongolia, Australia, and Russia to China from 2021 to 2025 [52]. - **Washing Coal Production**: Presents the start - up rate and daily average output of 110 washing plants from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - **Coking Production**: On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [61]. - **Steel Mill Coke Production**: The current capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 86.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%, and the daily average output is 46.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons [64]. - **Demand Side**: - **Hot Metal and Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%, and the daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons [68]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The report shows the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 to 2025 [69][71]. - **Long - Process and Short - Process**: Displays the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar from 2021 to 2025 [77]. - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton**: As of August 8, 2025, the profitability of 247 steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The coking coal market currently shows characteristics of "ongoing supply disruptions and rigid demand support." The key factors to watch are the actual impact of the over - production inspection by the Energy Bureau on the output in major production areas, changes in imported coal prices, and the transmission effect of coking enterprises' profit repair on the raw material replenishment rhythm. The coke market's fundamentals remain relatively strong, with rigid demand support and transportation disruptions jointly driving up market bullish expectations. Key factors to monitor include the impact of steel mill profit changes on the replenishment rhythm, the continuous impact of extreme weather on transportation, and the transmission effect of futures price fluctuations on traders' behavior. Due to significant disturbances in market news, the volatility risk of coking coal and coke has increased, and it is advisable to maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance [12][13] Summary by Directory Coal and Coke Investment Strategy - **Coking Coal**: On the supply side, the over - production inspection by the Energy Bureau is ongoing, some previously over - producing coal mines have reduced production due to policy constraints, and the production recovery rhythm of some mines is slow. In addition, environmental protection control in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia has tightened, making it difficult for open - pit mines to resume production, resulting in a tight supply of resources such as fat coal. On the import side, the auction transaction has improved. In terms of demand, the coking price increase rhythm was postponed due to the weakening of the futures market. Some coking enterprises' losses have expanded due to cost pressure, and their enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is limited. However, steel mill blast furnaces still maintain a certain production intensity, and coking enterprises have many pre - sold orders. Overall, the coking coal price remains stable, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious [12] - **Coke**: On the supply side, after the fourth round of price increases, the profits of some enterprises have improved, and their production enthusiasm has increased. However, some coking enterprises' production is still restricted by previous losses, environmental protection, and maintenance, and the overall supply increase is limited. On the demand side, steel mill blast furnace production remains high, and the rigid demand for coke is strong. Although the fifth - round price increase process was initially slowed down by the futures market, it picked up later, and the supply - demand tight situation remains unchanged [12] - **Operation Strategy**: Due to significant disturbances in market news, the volatility risk of coking coal and coke has increased, and it is advisable to maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance [13] Coking Coal Data Tracking - **July Price Operation Logic Review**: In early July, the coking coal market was in a tight balance under the game between supply and demand, and the cost support of coking coal gradually emerged. In mid - July, cost pressure drove the price increase of coke, and the coking coal market differentiation intensified. In late July, there were frequent news disturbances in the coking coal market, and the strong cost supported the coke price [19] - **Price Performance**: Domestic coking coal prices in major production areas have stabilized. The port pick - up prices of Australian, Russian, and Mongolian coking coal have decreased. The coking coal futures closing price has shown a volatile trend [21] - **Price Difference**: The spot price difference between Shanxi coking coal and Mongolian coking coal from Ganqimaodu has widened significantly. The futures price difference and the basis have also shown a widening trend [24] - **Production**: The production recovery rhythm of coal mines is slow. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants has decreased slightly, and the monthly total supply of coking coal has increased [28][29] - **Profit**: The cost of coking coal has increased significantly, but coking enterprises still face losses. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises is - 45 yuan/ton [33] - **Inventory**: The overall coking coal inventory has stabilized, and the inventory pressure of upstream coal mines has been significantly reduced [35] Coke Data Tracking - **Price Increase**: The spot prices of coke in various regions have increased, and the futures closing price has shown a volatile trend [40][42] - **Price Difference and Basis**: The price difference between export coke and domestic coke has increased, and the basis of coke has converged [44][46] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of steel mills has increased [50][53] - **Inventory**: The overall coke inventory has continued to decline, with the inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreasing and the port inventory increasing [55][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures broke through the previous oscillation range and drove the entire black - series to run strongly. The external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and the central bank and other six departments issued policies to boost the stock market. The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July, improving the domestic macro - sentiment. There is an expected game around the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - In the spot market, the trading sentiment recovered this week. Under the pattern of decreasing supply, increasing demand, and inventory reduction of coking coal, the price got a short - term rebound drive. However, due to the expected accumulation of steel inventory, the demand for furnace materials is affected, and there is pressure on the upside of the rebound. The pressure around 860 should be noted. After the fourth round of price cut of coke was implemented, and the coking coal price was supported at a low level, the average loss per ton of coke for coking enterprises increased. As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies, with the expectation of further price cuts postponed [6]. - The coking coal supply is shrinking, and the overall inventory has decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Coking enterprises replenished raw materials, and coke inventory continued to decline. Steel mills replenished coking coal and reduced coke inventory. The overall coke production remained stable, and the molten iron production changed little, supporting the coke demand. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - As of June 24, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The non - housing project capital availability rate was 61.02%, up 0.05 percentage points week - on - week, and the housing project capital availability rate was 49.59%, up 0.08 percentage points week - on - week [5]. - On the 26th, safety inspections in the Guxian area of Linfen became stricter. There were no new coal mine shutdowns except for 2 mines that had shut down due to belt replacement. Affected by safety inspections, some coal mines and coal washing plants suspended transportation. The effective operating coal mines in Guxian had a total capacity of 690 million tons, with a daily raw coal output of only 13,700 tons [7]. - Recently, the purchasing sentiment in the Luliang coking coal market has improved, and the prices of some coking coal types have increased. The new orders of some coal mines in Lishi were about 100,000 tons, and there was a phenomenon of vehicles waiting for coal. Except for lean coal, the offline prices of high - sulfur main coking coal also increased, and the auction success rate improved [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Coking coal supply has shrunk, downstream has replenished inventory in the short term, and domestic policies encourage consumption [10]. - Bearish factors: Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Coking coal supply contraction**: The opening rate of 523 sample mines was 82.48%, a decrease of 2.01% from last week, and the daily average clean coal output was 738,200 tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons from last week. The opening rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, a decrease of 2.24% from last week, and the daily output was 501,450 tons, a decrease of 840,000 tons from last week. The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and both imports and domestic production declined significantly [12]. - **Significant weekly reduction of coking coal inventory**: As of the week of June 27, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.6309 billion tons, a reduction of 360,600 tons from last week; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 2.3187 billion tons, a reduction of 55,200 tons from last week; the port inventory was 2.8559 billion tons, a reduction of 177,200 tons from last week [14]. - **Coking enterprises replenish raw materials and coke inventory continues to decline**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 8.0898 billion tons, an increase of 131,900 tons. The available days of inventory were 9.43 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.1303 billion tons, a reduction of 25,500 tons [17]. - **Steel mills replenish coking coal and reduce coke inventory**: As of June 27, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.8121 billion tons, an increase of 65,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.39 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2775 billion tons, a reduction of 64,500 tons from the previous period, and the available days were 11.22 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [21]. - **Stable overall coke production**: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 645,100 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.46%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 474,300 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [25]. - **Little change in molten iron production, supporting coke demand**: As of the week of June 27, China's coke consumption was 1.0903 billion tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4229 billion tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The blast furnace opening rate was 83.82%, the same as last week [26]. - **The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts was postponed**: As of the week of June 27, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a significant increase from last week. With the coking coal price running strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies [28]. - **Double - coking far - month basis structure**: The futures market has stabilized and rebounded first, and the spot trading has been active and stabilized [30]. 3.4后市研判 - Recently, the external geopolitical conflict cooled down, and domestic policies improved the macro - sentiment. The spot market trading sentiment recovered this week. Coking coal has a short - term rebound drive, but there is pressure on the upside due to the expected steel inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 860 [32]. - As the coking coal price runs strongly, the support for coke on the downside becomes stronger, and the game between steel and coke intensifies. The expectation of further price cuts is postponed. In the short term, the coke futures will fluctuate with the cost - side coking coal [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coking coal and coke is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the coking coal market, supply over - increased in H1 2025, leading to rapid inventory accumulation and a one - sided price decline. In H2, although demand is resilient, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and prices will continue to seek a bottom. Policy changes are crucial for supply [2][76]. - The coke market is restricted by over - capacity, and prices mainly follow cost fluctuations. The current inventory is okay, and the fundamentals are healthier than coking coal, but the over - capacity problem persists. The export market is shrinking, but stable daily pig iron production provides some support [3][77]. - In H1 2025, the prices of coking coal and coke dropped rapidly due to intensified supply - demand contradictions and capital factors, reflecting fundamental expectations in advance. In H2, coking coal prices are expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern with limited downside space, and there may be periodic rebounds restricted by warehouse receipt cost pressure. Attention should be paid to coal mine policy adjustments and marginal changes in demand [4][77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 Market Review - Coking coal prices continued the downward trend from 2024, with a step - by - step decline in the price center. In Q1, it declined slowly, and in Q2, it accelerated. In June, the market oscillated due to tightened safety supervision and inventory pressure. Coke prices followed coking coal prices due to over - capacity, and its fundamentals were relatively healthy with low supply and balanced supply - demand [11][12]. 3.2 Coking Coal: Difficulty in Active Supply Reduction and Continuous Accumulation of Upstream Inventory 3.2.1 Domestic Production with Obvious Year - on - Year Increment - The supply - demand imbalance in the coking coal market in H1 was mainly due to the over - release of supply. From January to April 2025, the national coking coal production increased by 6.12% year - on - year, with Shanxi's output increasing by 13.17%. In Q1, the resumption of production after the Spring Festival was faster than before. In Q2, inventory pressure emerged, and in June, the coal mine operating rate declined due to safety supervision and inventory pressure [23]. 3.2.2 Profit Remains the Key Factor for Imports, and Import Volume Slows Down - In H1 2025, the sharp decline in domestic coking coal prices led to an inverted import profit and a contraction in import volume. By April, the cumulative import volume decreased by 4% year - on - year. Mongolian coal imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventory accumulated. Seaborne coal imports also decreased and are expected to remain low in H2 [40][45]. 3.2.3 Coal Mine Inventory Accumulation - In Q1, the overall inventory was depleted by downstream consumption, but upstream inventory remained high. In Q2, downstream inventory was low, and coal mine inventory accumulated, pushing up the total inventory to a historical high [59]. 3.3 Coke: Low Supply, Lower Cost, but the Over - Capacity Pattern Remains Unchanged 3.3.1 Difficulty in Changing the Over - Capacity Pattern and Low Coking Profits - The decline in coking coal prices in H1 drove down coke prices, but the contraction of coking profits was relatively limited. The coke inventory is okay, and the fundamentals are healthier than coking coal. The coking industry still has an over - capacity problem, and the standardization of the J2604 contract is expected to promote technological transformation [68]. 3.3.2 Low Downstream Inventory and Declining Exports - The coking industry maintained a low operating rate, and the overall coke inventory was healthy. Downstream enterprises are expected to continue the low - inventory strategy in H2. The coke export market shrank, with a 25% year - on - year decline in cumulative exports by May 2025. However, the stable daily pig iron production of about 2.4 million tons in Q2 provided some support for coke demand [70][72]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Summary - In the coking coal market, supply over - increased in H1, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. In H2, prices will be under pressure, and policy changes are crucial for supply. In the coke market, prices follow cost fluctuations, with over - capacity and a shrinking export market. The stable pig iron production provides some support. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in H2, with limited downside space and possible periodic rebounds [76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet-quenched coke down by 70 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke down by 75 yuan/ton. The outcome of the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism may have a significant impact on the macro sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have rebounded to near the spot parity level. The current fundamental weakness of coking coal and coke remains unchanged, with significant downward pressure [6]. - As the impact of high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall intensifies, steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile. However, steel mills are still profitable, with limited enthusiasm for production cuts. The decline in steel mills' hot metal production has slowed, and it remains at a relatively high level. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are reducing inventory through controlled and reduced procurement, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices [6]. - Coke enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, with continuously growing and rapidly rising inventories. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, coke enterprises' operations have slightly declined. After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprises' profits are near the break-even point, but there may be further price cuts due to weak downstream demand and continuous weakening of raw material prices. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - On the coking coal supply side, coal mine production cuts due to accidents, working face changes, and inventory pressure have increased, resulting in a slight reduction in coal supply, but it remains relatively loose. Coal mine sales are poor, coke enterprises are purchasing cautiously as needed, and transaction prices are continuously falling. The intermediate links are generally cautious and waiting, but the port inventory has rebounded from the bottom, indicating that traders are more confident in the future market. Coal mines are facing increasing pressure to sell, with continuous inventory accumulation, falling pithead prices, and coal mine raw coal and clean coal inventories reaching record highs. There are many cases of online auction failures and price cuts. The Mongolian coal port market has seen an increase in inquiries, but actual transactions are limited, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is high, with a decrease in customs clearance volume. The coking coal spot market is weakly operating, and the futures market is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: For coke futures, J2601 closed at 1260.1, down 8.0 from the previous day; J2605 closed at 1376.0, down 1.0; J2509 data is incomplete. For coking coal futures, JM2601 closed at 793.5, up 1.0; JM2605 closed at 822.5, up 4.0; JM2509 closed at 780.0, up 1.5. The 2509 contract's coking profit was 238.2 yuan/ton, down 12.7 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Spot Market**: Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices: Australian low-volatile coal was 668, unchanged; Australian medium-volatile coal was 1634, down 4; Shanxi's optimal delivery warehouse receipt was 857, unchanged. The 01, 05, and 09 contract's coking profit decreased by 8.7, 5.8, and 12.7 respectively [2]. - **Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' daily average hot metal production was 241.8, down 0.11 (-0.05%); 247 steel enterprises' daily average coke production was 47.3, down 0.04 (-0.08%); the daily average coke production of all independent coking plants was 66.8, down 0.27 (-0.40%); 247 steel enterprises' daily average coke consumption was 108.8, down 0.05 (-0.05%); the coke inventory of all independent coking plants was 127.0, up 15.6 (14.03%); 247 steel enterprises' coke inventory was 645.8, down 9.1 (-1.39%); port coke inventory was 214.2, down 3.0 (-1.40%). For coking coal, 110 coal washing plants' daily average clean coal production was 51.5, down 0.3 (-0.60%); 523 mines' daily average clean coal production was 74.5, down 1.8 (-2.29%); 110 coal washing plants' clean coal inventory was 245.1, up 23.0 (10.35%); 523 mines' clean coal inventory was 480.7, up 7.7 (1.63%); the coking coal inventory of all independent coking plants was 681.8, down 27.4 (-3.24%); 247 steel enterprises' coking coal inventory was 770.9, down 16.9 (-2.02%); port coking coal inventory was 313.0, up 9.9 (3.28%) [2]. 3.2 Important News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held on June 9 [4]. - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood and addressing people's urgent and difficult problems, including measures such as canceling household registration restrictions for social insurance participation in the place of employment [4]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with exports of 10.67 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 7.27 trillion yuan (down 3.8%) [4]. - In May 2025, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% [4]. - On June 9, the national main port iron ore transactions were 850,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4%; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 102,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [4]. - In May 2025, construction enterprises' actual steel procurement volume was 5.57 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4%; the actual procurement volume in June is expected to decrease by about 3% month-on-month [4]. - In May 2025, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal, a decrease of 7.776 million tons (-17.7%) compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 1.785 million tons (-4.7%) compared with April [5]. - In May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the same decline as the previous month; PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [5]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel imports totaled 255,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%; the import value was 4.29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. The average import price of steel from January to May was 1,681.6 US dollars per ton, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In May 2025, China exported 1.0578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 4.8469 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of coking coal and coke continues to shrink, with some previously shut - down or reduced - production coal mines not fully restored, and the import situation is not optimistic. Demand is weakening as coke enterprise开工 and steel mill hot - metal production decline. The rebound in prices is driven by short - covering and the approaching traditional peak season for thermal coal demand. The report advises caution on the height of the rebound, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for coking coal and short - term operations for coke [63] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Double - Coking Market Review - No specific review content provided other than the title 2. Coking Coal Fundamental Overview - **Production**: As of this Friday, the operating rate of sample coal - washing plants was 61.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. Some coal mines reduced production due to underground issues or poor sales [18] - **Import**: By the end of April 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 36.327 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.31%. Mongolia's imports declined, while those from Russia, Canada, and the US increased [22] - **Port Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory at six ports was 3.1302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 99,300 tons [25] - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises was 690,856 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,810 tons. Coke enterprises had insufficient restocking motivation due to increasing losses [30] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 770,910 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,880 tons. Steel mills reduced their raw - material inventory due to blast - furnace production cuts [33] 3. Coke Fundamental Overview - **Supply**: From January to April, the national coke production was 164.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In April, the production was 41.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [37] - **Coke Enterprise Operation**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises was 74.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. Although the operation decreased, the absolute level was still high [41] - **Coke Enterprise Inventory**: As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 88,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,080 tons. Due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, inventory continued to accumulate [46] - **Port Inventory**: The total port coke inventory was 214,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,030 tons. Traders' willingness to ship to ports decreased due to falling spot prices [49] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 645,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,130 tons. Steel mills reduced their raw - material inventory due to blast - furnace production cuts [54] - **Demand**: From January to April, the national pig - iron production was 288.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In April, the production was 72.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% [59] 4. Double - Coking Future Outlook - **Coking Coal**: The supply continues to shrink, and the import situation is not good. Demand is weakening as coke enterprise operation and steel mill hot - metal production decline. The price rebound is driven by short - covering and the approaching peak season for thermal coal. The report advises caution on the rebound height and a wait - and - see approach [63] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises' losses are increasing, and the operation rate is slightly decreasing. Demand is weakening, but the decline in hot - metal production has narrowed. The coke price is driven up by the coking coal price, and short - term operations are recommended [63]