Report Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Upward" for the PVC industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the PVC industry currently faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand in the real - estate market, and new production capacity coming online, with the upcoming release of a new round of ten key industries' stable - growth work plans and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is expected that PVC will oscillate strongly in the near term, and the report suggests going long on dips or conducting a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton in some areas. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.62 percentage points to 77.59%, reaching a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025, and Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its July quotation by 10 - 25 US dollars/ton. Recent export orders are average, but India's delay in announcing anti - dumping duties until September 25 may stimulate Chinese PVC exports. Social inventory continues to increase and is still high. From January to June 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and the PVC operating rate increased last week. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been in trial production, and the support of calcium carbide prices is weak. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure. However, with the upcoming release of relevant policies and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract increased in position and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 5226 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5391 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5373 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, a rise of 3.19%. The position increased by 28,479 lots to 860,317 lots [2] Basis - On July 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 5075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the V2509 contract futures was 5373 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 298 yuan/ton, weakening by 70 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Erdos Chlor - Alkali and Yidongdongxing have entered maintenance, and the PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.80 percentage points to 76.79%, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In July, the 400,000 - ton/year Tianjin Bohua and 500,000 - ton/year Wanhua Chemical have been in trial production. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to June 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 3.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 442.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 3.7%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0%; the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises' houses was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%; the completion area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%. The overall improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [4] Inventory - As of the week of July 20, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.27% week - on - week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of July 24, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 683,400 tons, 28.23% less than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: With the second round of coke price increase implemented, coke enterprises' profits continue to recover, and their enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal is high. Currently, it is still in the replenishment cycle, which supports the price of raw coal. Additionally, the third round of coke price increase has been initiated, so there is an upward expectation for coking coal in the short - term. It is expected that the short - term price of coking coal may run strongly [2]. - **Coke**: Although the second round of coke price increase has been fully implemented, due to the continuous strengthening of raw coking coal prices, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state. Constrained by factors such as raw material supply shortage, the supply of coke shows a contraction trend. The high - level pig iron production of downstream steel mills and the continuous release of replenishment demand support the coke price. It is expected that coke may continue to run strongly in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Daily Views** - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Coal enterprises' production is stable, but there is an expectation of supply tightening. The market sentiment is boosted, and some coke enterprises with low raw coal inventories are actively replenishing, driving up the coal price [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1150, with a basis of - 48.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1902.8 tons, an increase of 45.9 tons from last week [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position increases [2]. - **Expectation**: The price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After the second round of price increase, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state due to high raw material costs and supply shortages [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1570, with a basis of - 165, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 839.7 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from last week [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position decreases [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to continue to run strongly in the short - term [5]. **Factors Affecting Prices** - **Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [7]. **Prices** - **Imported Coking Coal (July 24, 17:30)**: The prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia are provided, along with their price changes [8]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke (July 24, 17:30)**: The prices and price changes of port metallurgical coke are presented [9]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week [25]. **Other Indicators** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country is 74%, unchanged from last week [36]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants in the country is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

Group 1 - Coking coal futures hit the limit up again at the end of the trading session, with trading volume surging to 2.527 million contracts [1] - The verification notice for coal mine production is confirmed, indicating a strong market response [1] - Institutions suggest that this week, it is advisable to follow market sentiment for trading, with short-term coking coal prices likely to maintain a strong trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a significant increase in prices, particularly in coking coal, driven by supply constraints and strong demand from downstream steel industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 23, coking coal futures rose to 1117.5 yuan/ton, marking a 9.24% increase [1] - Weekly coal shipments by Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway reached 9641 cars, reflecting a 4.27% increase week-over-week and a 9.11% increase year-over-year [2] - Total coal transportation volume by the company reached 268,127 cars, showing an 8.7% year-over-year growth [2] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The National Energy Administration announced a review of coal mine production due to concerns over some companies exceeding announced production capacities, which disrupts market order [2] - A notification was issued to halt operations for coal mines exceeding 10% of their announced production capacity, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply in the coking coal market [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply recovery is slow due to environmental and safety regulations, while demand remains supported by improved market sentiment and active purchasing from downstream steel producers [3] - The inventory levels at coal mines are currently very low, indicating strong support for coking coal prices in the spot market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector experienced a significant surge on July 22, driven by news of a coal mine production inspection notice issued by the National Energy Administration, highlighting concerns over market order and production practices [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The National Energy Administration released a notice regarding the inspection of coal mine production to ensure stable and orderly coal supply [1] - The notice indicates that the overall coal supply and demand situation in the country has been relatively loose this year, with prices continuing to decline [1] - Some coal mining enterprises have been producing beyond their announced capacity, disrupting the coal market order [1] Group 2: Inspection Details - The inspection will cover coal mines in eight provinces and regions: Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Henan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Xinjiang [1] - Coal mines that have entered joint trial operation will be referenced for the inspection of production practices [1] - The exact start date for the inspections remains uncertain according to the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association [1]