Report Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Upward" for the PVC industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the PVC industry currently faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand in the real - estate market, and new production capacity coming online, with the upcoming release of a new round of ten key industries' stable - growth work plans and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is expected that PVC will oscillate strongly in the near term, and the report suggests going long on dips or conducting a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton in some areas. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.62 percentage points to 77.59%, reaching a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025, and Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its July quotation by 10 - 25 US dollars/ton. Recent export orders are average, but India's delay in announcing anti - dumping duties until September 25 may stimulate Chinese PVC exports. Social inventory continues to increase and is still high. From January to June 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and the PVC operating rate increased last week. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been in trial production, and the support of calcium carbide prices is weak. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure. However, with the upcoming release of relevant policies and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract increased in position and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 5226 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5391 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5373 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, a rise of 3.19%. The position increased by 28,479 lots to 860,317 lots [2] Basis - On July 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 5075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the V2509 contract futures was 5373 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 298 yuan/ton, weakening by 70 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Erdos Chlor - Alkali and Yidongdongxing have entered maintenance, and the PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.80 percentage points to 76.79%, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In July, the 400,000 - ton/year Tianjin Bohua and 500,000 - ton/year Wanhua Chemical have been in trial production. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to June 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 3.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 442.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 3.7%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0%; the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises' houses was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%; the completion area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%. The overall improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [4] Inventory - As of the week of July 20, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.27% week - on - week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of July 24, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 683,400 tons, 28.23% less than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-25） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤企生产稳定，但在国家能源局组织开展煤矿生产情况核查消息下，供应有收紧预期。随 着焦炭价格落实第二轮上涨，焦煤市场情绪进一步提振，部分原料煤库存低位焦企仍积极补库为主，带 动产地煤价延续涨势，且线上竞拍部分煤种成交价格继续探高；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1150，基差-48.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：随着焦炭第二轮提涨落地，焦企利润继续修复，焦企 ...

Group 1 - Coking coal futures hit the limit up again at the end of the trading session, with trading volume surging to 2.527 million contracts [1] - The verification notice for coal mine production is confirmed, indicating a strong market response [1] - Institutions suggest that this week, it is advisable to follow market sentiment for trading, with short-term coking coal prices likely to maintain a strong trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a significant increase in prices, particularly in coking coal, driven by supply constraints and strong demand from downstream steel industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 23, coking coal futures rose to 1117.5 yuan/ton, marking a 9.24% increase [1] - Weekly coal shipments by Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway reached 9641 cars, reflecting a 4.27% increase week-over-week and a 9.11% increase year-over-year [2] - Total coal transportation volume by the company reached 268,127 cars, showing an 8.7% year-over-year growth [2] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The National Energy Administration announced a review of coal mine production due to concerns over some companies exceeding announced production capacities, which disrupts market order [2] - A notification was issued to halt operations for coal mines exceeding 10% of their announced production capacity, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply in the coking coal market [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply recovery is slow due to environmental and safety regulations, while demand remains supported by improved market sentiment and active purchasing from downstream steel producers [3] - The inventory levels at coal mines are currently very low, indicating strong support for coking coal prices in the spot market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector experienced a significant surge on July 22, driven by news of a coal mine production inspection notice issued by the National Energy Administration, highlighting concerns over market order and production practices [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The National Energy Administration released a notice regarding the inspection of coal mine production to ensure stable and orderly coal supply [1] - The notice indicates that the overall coal supply and demand situation in the country has been relatively loose this year, with prices continuing to decline [1] - Some coal mining enterprises have been producing beyond their announced capacity, disrupting the coal market order [1] Group 2: Inspection Details - The inspection will cover coal mines in eight provinces and regions: Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Henan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Xinjiang [1] - Coal mines that have entered joint trial operation will be referenced for the inspection of production practices [1] - The exact start date for the inspections remains uncertain according to the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association [1]